TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE? AN EMPIRICAL APPLICATION OF THE COROLLARY OF THE COASE THEOREM

Applying the corollary of the Coase Theorem to the development market developed in Lai et al. (2007a) , we evaluate the proposition that procedural steps to use resources are not contingent on property rights assignment, unless the associated transaction costs are positive or property rights are ambiguous. Using aggregate statistics regarding planning applications for residential use, property prices, construction costs, share prices, interest rates, and application success rates in Hong Kong from 1985 to 2005, we evaluated, using regression techniques, the null hypothesis that there was no change in the relationship between readiness for submission of planning applications and property prices in response to changes in the time limits imposed on planning permissions . The relationship was more pronounced or strengthened (less obvious or weakened) when time limits were first imposed and shorter (longer). This can be explained in terms of the transaction costs of switching resource allocation according to the time limit.     

浅论碳交易市场形成和运行的经济理论基础

全球环境恶化使减少二氧化碳等温室气体的排放变得十分必要。这一问题从经济学的角度看就是如何有效地校正负外部性。科斯定理提供了以市场机制来解决外部性问题的新思路。发挥科斯定理的作用,必须建立在明晰产权,降低交易成本以及合理分配初始权利的基础上。以科斯定理为主要理论依据建立起来的国际碳交易市场也必须在妥善解决上述三个问题后才能有效运行。     

城市开发与环境保护的巧妙结合——开发权转让的理论与实践

开发权转让政策鼓励限制开发地区的开发权有偿转让到指定的开发地区.它巧妙地利用激励机制去协调开发与环境的关系,既能够保护环境资源又能够提高开发质量.开发权转让以外部性理论、产权理论和科斯定理为基础.设计开发权转让制度涉及发送区和接受区确定、开发权分配以及转让规则制定等.开发权转让政策已取得引人瞩目的实践成效,尽管操作比较复杂,其应用前景仍然是广阔的和充满希望的.     

Auctions with resale and bargaining power

We show that when the weak bidder’s bargaining power in the resale market is weakened, the auctioneer’s revenue from the first-price auction with resale is lower. Using the idea of Coase Theorem, we show that when the resale market is a sequential bargaining model with no commitment, the auctioneer’s revenue is substantially reduced, and the ranking is the opposite of Hafalir and Krishna (2009). We establish a version of the Coase Theorem in the context of the auctions with resale. When Coase Theorem holds, we show that the revenue of the auction with resale is lower than the revenue of the same auction without resale. We also provide the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium for our model of auctions with resale.     

Constrained suboptimality when prices are non-competitive

The paper addresses the following question: how efficient is the market system in allocating resources if trade takes place at prices that are not competitive? Even though there are many partial answers to this question, an answer that stands comparison to the rigor by which the first and second welfare theorems are derived is lacking. We first prove a “Folk Theorem” on the generic suboptimality of equilibria at non-competitive prices. The more interesting problem is whether equilibria are constrained optimal, i.e. efficient relative to all allocations that are consistent with prices at which trade takes place. We discuss an optimality notion due to Bénassy, and argue that this notion admits no general conclusions. We then turn to the notion of p-optimality and give a necessary condition, called the separating property, for constrained optimality: each constrained household should be constrained in each constrained market. If the number of commodities is less than or equal to two, the case usually treated in the textbook, then this necessary condition is also sufficient. In that case equilibria are constrained optimal. When there are three or more commodities, two or more constrained households, and two or more constrained markets, this necessary condition is typically not sufficient and equilibria are generically constrained suboptimal.     

SHOULD WE WORRY ABOUT THE FAILURE OF THE HOTELLING RULE?

Abstract The continuing dependence of the global economy on fossil fuels is worrying because it imposes limits on growth due to the non‐renewable nature of these resources and also contributes to global climate change. Resource optimists believe that this is no reason to worry, because the economy will always find a way to overcome these constraints. Their arguments, however, require that resource prices reflect the scarcity of non‐renewable resources, which implies that they must obey the Hotelling rule. Empirical analyses, however, show that the Hotelling rule does not hold in reality, which raises the question: does the failure of the Hotelling rule imply that social optimality is not achieved? This paper argues that the answer depends on the reason for the failure. If extraction and exploration costs, or technological progress in these activities, are the reasons for the failure, a market failure is not implied, and optimality may still be achieved. But if the Hotelling rule fails due to uncertain property rights or strategic interaction, the market will surely fail to provide an optimal solution. A market failure is likely to speed up resource consumption compared to the social optimum.     

THE SINO-BRITISH JOINT DECLARATION, 1997, AND THE LAND MARKET OF HONG KONG*

In September, 1984, Britain and China concluded the Joint Declaration on the Future of Hong Kong. The Joint Declaration guarantees the continual practice of capitalism and a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong for a period of 50 years after 1997. It helped to rebuild confidence and caused property prices to rise. However, Annex HI of the Joint Declaration places severe restraints on the present government, limiting its ability to respond to market trends and generate funds from land sales. This paper seeks to look at some of these effects. It is argued that there is very little room for the present government to maneouvre and that even now the constraints imposed by the Joint Declaration are affecting the land market in Hong Kong. Higher land prices, a slower rate of horizontal expansion of the city and a greater intensity of land use are likely consequences of the newly imposed contraints. The recent emphasis on inner city development and redevelopment vis-a-vis a new town development strategy is in part attributable to the Joint Declaration.     

A SURVEY OF THE ECONOMICS OF FAIR TRADE

Fair Trade has spread in developing countries as an initiative aimed at lifting poor smallholder farmers out of poverty by providing them with premium prices, availability of credit, and improved community development and social goods. Fair Trade is also viewed as a niche market for high value products in a context of globalization and trade liberalization policies that affect smallholder farmers in developing countries. This paper provides an overview of the potential effects of Fair Trade, both theoretical and empirical, on small‐scale producers in developing countries. Our review discusses the empirical evidence on prices and income, as well as the importance of limited market access and productivity. We discuss evidence on labor markets and human capital investments as well.     

The 1986–88 stock market: Investor sentiment or fundamentals?

This paper tests the widely held proposition that investor sentiment contributed to the stock market crash of 1987. Using weekly data during the 1986–8 period and conventional measures of stock fundamentals, changes in fundamentals are found to have a statistically significant influence on the movement of stock prices. In addition, a much-discussed measure of investor sentiment is used to test the proposition that investor sentiment contributed to the stock market crash of 1987. However, insignificant results regarding the investor sentiment index suggest that either the recently proposed sentiment index is faulty or investor sentiment did not significantly influence stock prices in the period surrounding the 1987 crash.     

Elements of an economic justification for municipal zoning

The possibility that externalities will produce a nonconvexity in the social production set limits the application of both the Coase and Pigou solutions for achieving an optimal allocation of land resources. Conditions on relative land prices are derived which indicate that external effects are strong enough to introduce a nonconvexity into the production set. These conditions were not fulfilled in a sample of single-family and multifamily dwellings in Foster City, California. This does not preclude the possibility that they are fulfilled in cases of more severe external effects.     

THE ECONOMIC THEORY OF VERTICAL RESTRAINTS

Abstract.  The types of contracts arising in a typical vertical manufacturer–retailer relationship are more sophisticated than a simple uniform price. In addition to setting per unit prices, manufacturers and retailers also revert to non-linear pricing and non-price instruments. These instruments or contracts are referred to as vertical restraints and can take the form of franchise fees, resale-price maintenance, exclusive dealing, exclusive territories and slotting allowances. The use and the effects of one type of instrument versus another depend crucially on specific market assumptions upstream and downstream and on the division of bargaining power between manufacturers and retailers. This paper surveys the industrial organization literature on retail pricing and shows that vertical restraint instruments have important effects on producer and consumer prices, market structure, efficiency and welfare.     

The behavior of speculative prices and the consistency of economic models

Modern financial economic theory suggest that changes in speculative prices should follow simple ‘fair game’ processes in an informationally efficient capital market. The observation that changes in speculative prices follow simple time series processes both supports this theoretical proposition and suggest restrictions on the transfer functions of structural econometric models in which speculative prices appear as output variables. The simplicity of the time series processes for observed changes in speculative prices are shown to impose strong restrictions on potential equilibrium models of asset pricing, informational disequilibrium models of financial markets, and many monetary and macroeconomic models as well.     

Modeling Speculative Activity in the Hong Kong Residential Property Market

Using the Granger definition in a bivariate context, this paper investigates the relation between speculation and real estate prices in Hong Kong. Based on monthly data, the paper shows that in the mass residential property market, speculation and property prices are each integrated of order one, and hence cointegrated. A vector error correction model is then estimated for speculation. The error correction term is found to be statistically significant, implying Granger causality running from property prices to speculation in the mass residential property market. The empirical findings provide evidence that fluctuations in residential property prices cause fluctuations in housing speculation. A long-term solution to curb speculative activities and stabilize property prices is to increase the supply of housing land, and in turn the supply of private residential property. Steady property supply of will reduce acceleration of property prices and thus restrict speculation.     

THE FUTURE OF THE SEABED

Increased commodity prices and improved technology have combined to increase the incentives to exploit natural resources located under the seas. However, an international seabed regime under the auspices of the United Nations presents dangers for free markets, sovereignty and security. Alternative institutional arrangements based on privatisation would produce better outcomes.     

房产税对房产市场影响的实证研究——上海模式和重庆模式的比较

文章首先运用HP滤波的方式分析了沪渝两地房产税对新房和二手房在价格和成交量上的影响,发现上海房地产市场对房产税的的征收反应更为理性,影响效果更好,但两地区新房和二手房市场的反映都存在差异;此外,利用房价对数模型,发现房产税都能有效的影响两地的房价,但由于影响两地房价的因素有很大的差异,效率并不一样,上海地区房产税每增加1%,房价将下降0.553%,重庆地区房产税每增加1%,房价将下降0.041%。因此国家需区别对待新房和二手房市场,并且因地制宜,推广不同的房产税模式。     

THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT HANSHIN-AWAJI EARTHQUAKE ON THE LOCAL HOUSING MARKET

The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake destroyed a huge number of houses and caused housing problems in the disaster area. This paper investigates the influence of the earthquake on the related housing market, mainly in terms of changes in house prices and housing rents, and analyzes the machanism of the changes. Empirical results by Hedonic analyses indicate the influences are different between house prices and housing rents and also between the disaster district and the surrounding area. Those differences are explained by the factors of the earthquake that would affect the housing market, such as decrease in income, diversity of damage among the districts and others.     

THE PUZZLE OF HOUSING PRIVATIZATION IN EASTERN EUROPE

This paper focuses on the part of the housing sector proving most difficult to reform in Eastern Europe-State-owned rentals—which typically constitute about 20 percent on the housing stock overall and half of the units in the largest cities. The paper argues that two objectives must be pursued simultaneously: (1) selling units at or near market prices to tenants or other households willing to purchase them; and (2) integrating the remaining state-owned rentals with the nascent but expanding rental market. The six elements of a strategy for achieving these objectives are described.     

Property rights and the stock market-growth nexus

Using threshold estimation techniques, this study examines whether the growth effect of stock market development differs according to the different levels of property rights and minority shareholders protection in a cross-section of 85 jurisdictions during the post-crisis period. The results demonstrate that the impact of stock market liquidity on growth is positive and significant only in jurisdictions where there is high level of property rights protection. Similar effect is discerned in the case of strong minority shareholders protection. Using the market size as a measure of stock market development, the paper also documents a positive growth effect of market size when property rights and minority shareholders protection are strong. However, there is mixed evidence in the low to medium degrees of protection. Further analyses using other broader governance indicators as threshold variables and instrumental variable threshold regressions reaffirm the main findings. The study upholds the “better finance, more growth” proposition and contributes to the identification of thresholds above which institutional quality can positively shape the impact of stock market on economic growth.     

地产：未尽的清算

既得利益既要自保,也必须要维持民生底线。地产调控能否走出政府与市场、中央与地方循环博弈的怪圈？借钱搞开发、利用高杠杆放大地产商自身财富效应的地产模式,能否因为这次密集调控退出历史舞台？     

有效市场假设和行为金融学——关于资本市场效率的理论

本文是对资本市场效率问题研究的一个简要回顾和介绍。资本市场效率决定了资本配置、使用的效率,因此是金融经济学的一个主要组成部分。芝加哥商学院教授法玛1970年正式提出有效市场假说(EMH),认为股票价格包含了所有相关信息因而是有效的。在此后很长一段时间内,EMH成为现代金融学的基石。但是近年来,越来越多的理论和实证的发现表明,市场是非有效的。这些理论和实证发现形成了对资本市场效率的新认识—行为金融学。