A comparative study of hype cycles among actors within the socio-technical system: With a focus on the case study of hybrid cars

Many forms of technology cycle models have been developed and utilized to identify emergent technologies and forecast social changes, and among these, the technology hype cycle introduced by Gartner has become established as an effective method widely utilized in the field. However, if the hype cycle indeed exists in the various dimensions that constitute the socio-technical system, those who seek to analyze innovative activities using bibliometrics will be confronted with the new problem of actors' choices and the need to analyze their hype cycles. In seeking to overcome such limitations of conventional studies, this paper analyzes the hype cycles of three actors that constitute the core of the socio-technical system through the case study of the successful market entry of hybrid cars. The hype cycle of the user, the first actor, is analyzed based on the search traffic generated by their web searches, and the hype cycle of the producer or researcher, the second actor, is measured based on the data regarding patent applications. Lastly, the hype cycle of the information distributor, namely individuals constituting the market network, is analyzed by examining the exposure in news reports. The outcomes of this research showed that among the three actors, the consumers and the information distributors exhibited hype cycle patterns (bell curves) that were distinct from the market trend, and that there was a difference in time interval of around five quarters. By contrast, it was found that the hype cycle of the producers reflected a logical response, exhibiting a pattern similar to the S-curve during the market's growth period unlike the pattern found in other actors. In conclusion, this study of the particular case of hybrid cars confirmed that the two components of the hype cycle can be respectively verified using consumer search traffic and the patent applications made by the producers. If in the future, such analyses of the hype cycles of producers and consumers are expanded in application to various other industries, it will be possible to obtain more generalizable research outcomes. This is expected to contribute to determining technological life cycles or hype cycles with greater objectivity and efficacy, and furthermore to facilitate the systematic identification of promising technologies.     

Incumbent organisations shaping emerging technological fields: cases of solar photovoltaic and electric vehicle charging

We explore how large incumbent organisations shape emerging technological fields while establishing a position and business opportunities for themselves during technological shifts. We draw from innovation studies that increasingly emphasise the ability of incumbent organisations to survive technological transformations and studies on emerging technological fields to identify ways in which incumbent organisations shape novel fields during their emergence. Through longitudinal case studies of two emerging fields, we examine how incumbents shape the emerging technological fields of solar energy and electric vehicles. We discuss the interlinked and cumulative business and discursive activities utilized by the incumbents as well as the mechanism through which they influence the legitimacy, expectations and field boundaries of the emerging technological fields. Our study draws attention to the fact that incumbents enter emerging fields at an earlier stage and in more diverse ways than has previously been noted.     

Evolutionary trajectories of the nanotechnology research across worldwide economic players

The purpose of this paper is to analyse, by concentration measures and metrics of heterogeneity, the evolutionary trajectories of scientific output in nanotechnology research across worldwide economic players. The results show that the concentration in nanotechnology research has been reducing over time and space. In particular, the pattern of nanotechnology research has been spreading among different scientific domains and pathways, generating new technological paradigms mainly in chemistry, medicine and engineering research fields. This scientific analysis is important in order to explore the current knowledge growth and technological trajectories in nanotechnology research that may support future patterns of technological innovation.     

The social dynamics of expectations: The interaction of collective and actor-specific expectations on electronic commerce and interactive television

The article investigates three mechanisms by which expectation dynamics affect innovation processes. Empirically, it focuses on hype-disappointment cycles in electronic commerce and interactive television, drawing on results from qualitative case studies and secondary analysis. First, two specific ways by which collective, i.e. widely shared, expectations motivate and guide innovation actors are presented. These mechanisms serve as an explanation for the fact that often an impressively large number of heterogeneous actors accept and contribute to high-rising expectations. With reference to a third mechanism, it is shown that results of technological projects are subject to interpretative flexibility and, as such, are interpreted in the light of the same expectations they are supposed to 'validate'. Sudden changes of the consideration of certain technologies as promising or not are then explained as a result of the interaction between collective expectations and expectations and outcomes at the project level.     

Characterizing the emergence of a technological field: Expectations, agendas and networks in Lab-on-a-chip technologies

In this paper we develop and use mapping tools to investigate emerging technological fields by studying the dynamics of expectations, agenda building and early networks. In our approach, expectations describe shared beliefs with regard to prospective entities and positions. Agendas are sets of priorities present to guide the actors in their work. The structure that arises as a result of the actions and interactions of actors is the emerging network. For emerging technologies these processes are susceptible to change and the technological paths that may arise are still easy to influence. We propose that not only looking at expectation dynamics, but also including agenda setting and networks dynamics is essential in order to successfully capture the complexities of the emergence of technological paths. A major challenge for this work lies in unveiling the socio-technical dynamics leading to path emergence. For this purpose we investigate the phenomena of irreversibilities that emerge during the ongoing interactions of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. With these aspects in mind, we will use a broadened view of expectation dynamics in order to arrive at an improved understanding of the building blocks of path emergence. We illustrate our approach with a case study of Lab-on-a-chip technology for medical and pharmaceutical applications.     

On “badly behaved” dynamics

Adaptive (path dependent) processes of growth modeled by urn schemes are important for several fields of applications: biology, physics, chemistry, economics. In this paper we present a general introduction to urn schemes, together with some new results. We review the studies that have been done in the technological dynamics by means of such schemes. Also several other domains of economic dynamics are analysed by the same machinery and its new modifications allowing to tackle non-homogeneity of the phase space. We demonstrate the phenomena of multiple equilibria, different vonvergence rates for different limit patterns, locally positive and locally negative feedbacks, limit behavior associated with non-homogeneity of economic environment where producers (firms) are operating. It is also shown that the above urn processes represent a natural and convenient stochastic replicator dynamics which can be used in evolutionary games.     

Technological change in niches: Auxiliary Power Units and the hydrogen economy

In studies of large scale systems innovations or technological transitions, niches have been given a prominent role as incubators for the seeds of future technological systems. It is often argued that immature technologies rely on niches for their development, before they are able to compete in mainstream markets. This paper combines insights from economic theory and from technology studies to formulate a framework for understanding the dynamics of technological change in niches, and applies this framework to the case of fuel cell Auxiliary Power Units (APUs). We conclude that the choice of technology for APUs will be of critical importance in determining the role this market could have in shaping future developments in hydrogen and fuel cells. However, a number of factors are not strictly dependent on the technology used in fuel cell APUs. These comprise factors influencing external economies of scale, network effects, the behaviour of users and expectations.     

Anticipating technology-driven industry convergence: evidence from large-scale patent analysis

ABSTRACT

Industry convergence has been the subject of many prior studies, yet most have focused on certain domains based on ex post evaluation. This study presents a systematic approach to anticipating technology-driven industry convergence using large-scale patent analysis covering all technology fields. Our approach includes patent co-classification analysis with the concordance between patent classes and industrial sectors to measure technological relations between industries; centrality and brokerage analysis to identify the specific roles of technology fields in industry convergence; and finally link prediction analysis to anticipate technology-driven industry convergence. A case study with the patents issued by the United States Patent and Trademark Office from 1976 to 2014 confirms that our approach provides a holistic and forward-looking perspective on technology-driven industry convergence.     

Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited

An increasing number of longitudinal data sets collect expectations information regarding a variety of future individual level events and decisions, providing researchers with the opportunity to explore expectations over micro variables in detail. We present a theoretical framework and an econometric methodology to use that type of information to test the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis in models of individual behavior. This RE assumption at the micro level underlies a majority of the research in applied fields in economics, and it is the common foundation of most work in dynamic models of individual behavior. We present tests of three different types of expectations using two different panel data sets that represent two very different populations. In all three cases we cannot reject the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics, and other disciplines, that assume rational behavior. We would like to acknowledge outstanding research assistance from Huan Ni. The Michigan Retirement Research Center (MRRC) and the TIAA-CREF Institute made this research possible through their financial support of two related projects. Benítez-Silva also acknowledges the financial support from NIH grant AG1298502 on a related project, and also from the Fundación BBVA, and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through project number SEJ2005-08783-C04-01, and wants to thank the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland and the Department of Economics at Universitat Pompeu Fabra for their hospitality during the completion of this paper. Three anonymous referees provided excellent comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are the authors’.     

Private Information: Similarity as Compatibility

We introduce a new topology on information which evaluates the similarity between information fields taking into account their compatibility, that is, the events that are commonly observed. With this “topology of common information”, the Walrasian expectations equilibrium (Radner 1968) and the private core (Yannelis 1991) are upper semicontinuous     

The knowledge bases of the world’s largest pharmaceutical groups: what do patent citations to non-patent literature reveal?

This article examines the knowledge bases of the world’s largest pharmaceutical groups by sales. It builds upon the concepts of knowledge specialisation and knowledge integration as the relevant dimensions along which knowledge bases can be mapped. The former is studied developing indicators of breadth. Breadth is measured by analysing the evolution of specialisation by scientific field over time. It hints at the widening range of bodies of scientific and technological knowledge relevant to firms’ innovative activities. Knowledge integration is studied developing indicators of depth. Depth is measured by analysing the evolution of integration across different typologies of research. It hints at the complex, non-linear interdependencies that link the scientific and technological domains. We develop the analysis on the strength of an original database of 33,127 European Patent Office patents and 41,931 citations to ‘non-patent document’ (of which 19,494 were identified as scientific articles included in the ISI databases) of the 30 largest pharmaceuticals groups during the period 1990–1997. The groups studied seem to have incrementally increased the breadth of their knowledge bases, moving towards the fields proper to the new biopharmaceutical research trajectory. At the same time, some of the groups studied exhibit remarkable depth in knowledge integration in particular fields such as biotechnology, biochemical research and neurosciences.     

Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies

Technological development is often described as an evolutionary process of variation, selection and retention. Different technologies are seen as variations, while the market and other institutions operate as a selection environment. It is less understood, however, how variation and selection relate in the case of emerging technologies. In this paper we introduce the concept of arenas of expectations to examine the relationship between variation and selection processes. Expectations are of particular interest in a pre-market phase of innovation, when performance, cost and other market criteria are less articulated and not stable. In arenas of expectations ‘enactors’ of particular technological variations voice and maintain expectations, while ‘selectors’ will compare and assess the competing claims. We analyse the expectations work of both parties in a case study on metal hydrides for the on-board storage of hydrogen for automotive applications. The paper concludes with a framework of ‘arenas of expectations’ as the linchpin between the processes of variation and selection of emerging technologies.     

Strategic responses to fuel cell hype and disappointment

This article investigates the interplay of expectation dynamics and innovation processes at the level of organizations and at the innovation system level. We examine how different kinds of organizations contributed and responded to a recent hype and disappointment cycle in the field of stationary fuel cells. Among others, we trace how innovation and discourse activities changed and we explain the observed differences in strategic responses. We show that the sensitivity of organizations to expectation dynamics depends on at least three factors: the strategic embedding of the new technology, the organization's dependence on external legitimacy and its role in the innovation system. Moreover, we show that – in their aggregation – strategic responses affected the level of the technological innovation system as well. Not only did the pace and direction of innovation activities change, but structures such as actor constellations and institutions were also modified. Our study thus provides insights into the interplay of expectation and innovation dynamics, which is important for our understanding of larger transformation processes, e.g. toward more sustainable modes of energy supply.     

The distribution of technological progress

The size distribution of the domains of US-patented technological knowledge obeys an exponential law, revealing a disproportionable concentration of progress among larger domains. Our analyses suggest that this phenomenon is explained by a combination of two factors. First, domains’ trajectories of growth have inherently different potentials. Second, differences in domains’ potentials are magnified by a mechanism—domains’ self-hybridization—endogenous to the process of knowledge growth. Our results show that in addition to being stable, the observed distribution of technological progress is likely to arise under very general conditions.     

Is Embodied Technology the Result of Upstream R&D? Industry-Level Evidence

This paper provides an exploratory analysis of whether data on the research and development (R&D) spending directed at particular technological/product fields can be used to measure industry-level capital-embodied technological change. Evidence from the patent literature suggests that the R&D directed at a product, as the main input into the “innovation” production function, is proportional to the value of the innovations in that product. I confirm this hypothesis by showing that the decline in the relative price of a good is positively correlated with the R&D directed at that product. The hypothesis implies that the technological change, or innovation, embodied in an industry's capital is proportional to the R&D that is done (“upstream”) by the economy as a whole on each of the capital goods that a (“downstream”) industry purchases. Using R&D data from the National Science Foundation, I construct measures of capital-embodied R&D. I find they have a strong effect on conventionally measured total-factor productivity growth, a phenomenon that seems to be due partly to the mismeasurement of quality change in the capital stock and partly to a positive correlation between embodied and disembodied technological change. Finally, I find the cross-industry variation in empirical estimates of embodied technological change accord with the cross-industry variation in embodied R&D. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: O3.     

The boundaries of firms in the new economy: M&As as a strategic tool toward corporate technological diversification

Following the dynamic capabilities approach, we understand the recent wave of M&As as a corporate strategy mainly stimulated by the increasingly complex and uncertain techno-socio-economic environment in which firms operate. In this new situation, the boundaries of firms are in greater flux since firms are unable to develop individually all the competencies required to keep pace with the continual redefinition of business lines being driven by corporate competition. Using US patents granted to the world's largest firms, this paper analyses the dynamics of the sectoral specialisation of corporate technological profiles following large shocks that require some M&A deal. The findings of the analysis enable us to evaluate the adoption of M&As as a strategic tool to reshape corporate technological boundaries. On these grounds, we are able to identify patterns of technological diversification into strategic fields according to different models of industrial technological development.     

中国区域技术专业化与经济增长——基于专利数据的实证分析

基于专利数据构建技术专业化衡量指标,测度2001-2015年中国内地30个省域技术专业化系数,展现专业化模式的区域差异以及变动规律,并利用门限面板模型进一步考察不同类型技术专业化与区域经济增长之间的非线性关系。结果表明：中国省域技术分工系数总体呈现西高东低的区域特征,并出现先增后降的变化趋势;只有少数地区能在高新技术和高机会技术领域实现专业化,大部分地区仅在自身优势产业所对应的技术领域实现专业化;技术专业化与区域经济增长之间存在非线性关系,创新能力较低时,技术分工将促进经济增长,而当创新能力较高时,技术分工的作用不显著,且不同领域专业化会产生不同效果。     

The Story-lines of Technological Change: Innovation,Construction and Appropriation

The paper contrasts three story-lines of technological change, which represent three different ways to think about technology as a social process. Each story-line, or discourse, or narrative strategy, has its own special terminology and is derived from particular academic fields and intellectual traditions. And each has different ways of considering the forms of social agency that are relevant in relation to technological change. For the story-line of innovation, the relevant agents are the producers of commercial products, often referred to as systems of innovation; for the story-line of construction, agency is conceptualized as those particular actors that have an interest in a particular artifact and its promulgation. For the story-line of appropriation, the social agency is differentiated into various user communities. When we analyze the relations between technology and society, it is important to know which kind of story we are telling and which story-line, or narrative strategy we are following.     

Implementing innovation: designers,users and actor-networks

The role of users is an often-overlooked aspect of studies of innovation and diffusion. Using an actor-network theory (ANT) approach, four case studies examine the processes of implementing a piece of CAD (computer aided design) software, BSLink, in different organisations and describe the tailoring done by users to embed the software into working practices. This not only results in different practices of use at different locations, but also transforms BSLink itself into a proliferation of BSLinks-in-use. A focus group for BSLink users further reveals the gaps between different users’ expectations and ways of using the software, and between different BSLinks-in-use. It also demonstrates the contradictory demands this places on its further development. The ANT-informed approach used treats both innovation and diffusion as processes of translation within networks. It also emphasises the political nature of innovation and implementation, and the efforts of various actors to delegate manoeuvres for increased influence onto technological artefacts.