Multiple perspectives on planning for emergencies: An introduction to the special issue on planning and foresight for emergency preparedness and management

This introduction highlights the diversity of national localities, research methods, case studies, and topics covered by the papers selected for inclusion in the special issue on “Planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness and management.” It then provides a detailed summary of each study, emphasizing what the editors feel are the most important contributions. Concluding remarks include a call for future studies that are needed. An example is planning for ways of supporting and integrating citizen participation in all phases of crisis management, a topic that is missing from this collection.     

城市建设中的公共安全规划问题探讨

随着我国城市建设步伐的加快和城市人口的急剧膨胀,各种公共安全事故发生的频度和程度迅速增加,使得城市的可持续发展受到严重威胁,城市公共安全面临空前的挑战.城市基础设施建设时进行公共安全规划势在必行.文章从事故防御和事故应急诸方面讨论了城市规划建设时应注意的问题及应采取的措施,分析了公共安全规划理论对我国城市规划建设的基本要求,提出基础设施建设中进行公共安全规划的方法.     

Agency conflicts in the presence of random private benefits from project implementation

We study a contracting problem where a principal delegates the decision to implement a “project” to an agent who obtains private information about the value of the project before making the implementation decision. Moral hazard arises because the agent gets private random non-contractible benefits, or incurs private random non-contractible costs, if the project is implemented. This contracting problem is pervasive, when “project” and “benefits” are interpreted broadly.     

Managerial incentives and collusive behavior

I characterize the effects of empirically observed managerial incentives on long-run oligopolistic competition. When managers have a preference for smooth time-paths of profits - as revealed by the empirical literature on “income smoothing” - manager-led firms can sustain collusive agreements at lower discount factors. Capped bonus plans and incumbency rents with termination threats make collusion supportable at any discount factor, independent of contracts' duration. When managers have these preferences/incentives and demand fluctuates, “price wars during booms” need not occur: the most collusive price may then be pro-cyclical.     

The conjoint community resiliency assessment measure as a baseline for profiling and predicting community resilience for emergencies

Community resilience is a term that describes the community's ability to function amidst crises or disruptions. Community resilience is perceived as a fundamental element in emergency preparedness and as a mean of ensuring social stability in the face of crises, including disasters. However, there is a paucity of empiric evidence for this conjecture. This paper demonstrates the use of the Conjoint Community Resilience Assessment Measurement (CCRAM) for estimating the ability of a community to be resilient in the face of disaster. Six factors of community resilience were identified based on a study conducted in nine small to medium size towns (N = 886): Leadership, collective efficacy, preparedness, place attachment, social trust and social relationship. Multiple logistic regressions yielded the CCRAM protective factors for perceived community resilience. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis confirmed the quality of the CCRAM as a diagnostic tool for perceived community resilience. The CCRAM tool is presented as a potential provider of information for authorities and decision makers as an aid for foreseeing and planning towards the challenges present during emergency times.     

Public expenditure, international specialisation and agglomeration

It is widely recognised that public-sector purchasers tend to favour domestic suppliers. We study the consequences of such home-biased public procurement on international specialisation. Using a general-equilibrium model with a monopolistically competitive sector, we find that a country will specialise in that sector if it has relatively large home-biased procurement (the “pull” effect). Furthermore, home-biased procurement can counter agglomeration forces in that sector and thereby attenuate the overall degree of international specialisation (the “spread” effect). Our empirical analysis, conducted on input-output data for the European Union, yields supporting evidence for the pull effect and some support for the spread effect.     

Willingness to pay for other species' well-being

Benefit-cost analysis of environmental policies typically focuses on benefits to human health and well-being. For other species, economists have attempted to measure human WTP for changes in the numbers of individuals for different types of wildlife, and to preserve biodiversity. When it comes to humans' WTP for improvements in the quality-of-life for other species, however, the evidence is limited. Morbidity and quality-of-life considerations may be particularly important to the task of valuing non-fatal harm to wildlife in the wake of an environmental disaster. We argue that the other species morbidity-reduction component of WTP should be calculated net of any “outrage” component associated with the cause of the harm. This net WTP is likely to be correlated with the premium that people are willing to pay for chicken products from birds for which the quality-of-life has been enhanced by improved animal welfare measures. This paper uses a conjoint choice stated preference survey to reveal the nature of systematic heterogeneity in preferences for “humanely raised” versus “conventionally raised” chicken. We also use latent class analysis to distinguish between two classes of people—those who are willing to pay a premium for humanely raised chicken, and those who are not.     

Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production

Roadmapping and scenarios are two widely used futures techniques which help R&D managers set priorities for research. These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project. The aim of the project is to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability — “clean production”.Scenarios, a frequently used Foresight method, are used to set the context for the exercise, inform the design of technology roadmaps and influence the wider policy context. Roadmaps are developed for three process areas of metal manufacture - surface preparation, machining and coating - on four levels including long run visions up to 2020, interim targets up to 2015, key R&D areas and specific project topics. Roadmaps are appraised in the light of alternative scenarios on the future of manufacturing. Promoting sustainability highlights gaps in a “business as usual” roadmap, suggesting a different portfolio of research projects. A revised overall scenario is used to shape public policy.R&D teams usually adopt one particular methodology to support resource allocation. However joint use of futures techniques helps if there is uncertainty over competing alternative technologies. Roadmapping often focuses on a single future. Scenario building as a Foresight technique introduces “multiple futures” thinking.     

Valuation of environmental goods: A shadow value perspective

This paper proposes a shadow value-based methodology for the economic valuation of environmental goods. The proposed method derives from a “cost of production perspective”. This type of approach represents advantages with respect to usual methods linked with “demand perspective”, when the interests of future generations is under consideration. The computational procedure is simple and the required information easy to obtain. We explain how the methodology works with the help of a forestry example.     

Allocation of resources in a team

The informational efficiency of “price” and “demand” messages in a resource allocation mechanism is studied here with the aid of the theory of teams¹. In the usual analysis of adjustment mechanisms (tâtonnement, decomposition), the adjustment process is assumed to run to completion, so that all the allocation and resource decisions can be made on the basis of enough information to guarantee optimal decisions². If, however, decisions must be made before the adjustment process is completed, say, after only a few iterations, then the decisions must be taken with limited information, and thus under conditions of uncertainty. This paper discusses a simple model in an attempt to examine explicitly these problems of uncertainty and limited information. A set of enterprise managers are assumed to produce various commodities, using scarce resources allocated to the enterprises by a resource manager. The enterprise managers also make decisions that affect their individual outputs. Varous kinds of communication among the managers, together with the corresponding information structures, are formulated, including the communication of price and demand messages. Optimal decision rules for the managers are calculated for the objective of maximizing the expected value of an index of total output. (It is assumed that the production functions and the supplies of scarce resources are stochastic, but are observed by the respective managers.) It is shown that optimal decision rules based on a single exchange of price and demand messages, between the resource manager on the one hand and the enterprise managers on the other, produces as good results as rules based on (1) complete information for the resource manager, and (2) information about the supplies of resources on the part of the enterprise managers. Furthermore, these price and demand messages produce approximately fully optimal results when the number of enterprises is large. However, the optimal decisions of the enterprise managers do not maximize profits, at least relative to any price that is the same for all enterprises. An assumption that the production functions are quadratic plays a key role.     

Technology transfer in the IT industry: A Korean perspective

Recently Korean Government announced ambitious IT strategy to establish Korea as one of leaders in world IT market. To implement this strategy, technology transfer from research lab to market should be successfully performed. This study is to identify factors influencing technology transfer and to examine contribution of these factors on success of technology transfer in Korean IT industry. Survey results show that technology project leaders evaluated “Concreteness of Technology” as the most influential factor for technology transfer, followed by “Communication Channels,” “Collaboration among Participants,” “Management Support,” “Government Support,” and “Incentives for Transfer.” Out of 135 technology transfer projects, respondents rated 33 projects as sustaining (28.44%), 38 as promoting (28.15%), 26 as demonstrating (19.26%), 27 in incubating (20.00%), and the remaining 7 in imaging stage (8.15%). This statistics means that 28.15% of technology transfer projects did not reach production stage. Regression analysis identifies that “Communication Channels,” “Management Support,” “Concreteness of Technology” “Sense of Common Purpose,” and “Awareness of Technology Transfer” were statistically significant in explaining success of technology transfer.     

Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue

In this introductory paper we introduce the special issue on “Backcasting for Sustainability”. We present briefly a historical background, and position backcasting in the wider context of future studies, in which it can be related to “normative forecasting” and normative scenarios. We reflect on the diversity and variety of backcasting studies and experiments, as presented in the ten papers for this special issue. After summarizing the papers we formulate a future research agenda.     

企业信息安全事件应急响应效果的影响因素

通过分析、总结企业信息安全应急或其他领域应急的相关文献,提出了应急响应组织结构、应急响应队伍、应急预案和信息安全文化正向影响应急响应效果的研究假设。利用调研数据,对研究假设进行了验证。结果显示:企业的应急响应组织结构越高效,应急响应效果越好;应急预案和信息安全文化对应急响应效果具有显著的正向影响;应急响应队伍的专业知识和技能对应急响应效果具有显著的正向影响。     

Review of Delphi-based scenario studies: Quality and design considerations

For meaningful scenarios, creative input concerning possible future trends is crucial. Herman Kahn, the father of modern scenario planning, underlined the importance of “thinking the unthinkable” in a significant scenario study. “Blessed with high intelligence, an assertive personality and the research capabilities of the RAND Corporation,” he could rely on genius forecasting. But how can this foresight be creative as well as simultaneously credible and objective if one does not possess Kahn's genius? In this article, we assess the incorporation of expert knowledge via the Delphi technique into scenario planning as a promising option. We discuss possible combinations and identify the span of design alternatives in the existing body of Delphi-based scenario studies through a systematic research review and provide recommendations on how a Delphi-based scenario study should be designed to ensure quality. We recommend focusing on the integration of the Delphi technique only in one phase of the scenario approach. In this way, the design options can be intentionally adjusted to the particular function. We further offer recommendations on how to accomplish this.     

Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: The case of some Italian districts

The “territory” is widely recognized in the literature on business strategy as a critical driver of industrial competitiveness (see, as an example, Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations). The generation and exploitation of new knowledge, both tacit and explicit, through the process of socialization, articulation, combination and internalization (see Nonaka and Takeuchi, The Knowledge-Creating Company) is essential to enable innovation of processes and products of “local” firms.Our recent Foresight exercises in the metal working and machinery district of Lecco and in the silk district of Como show that Foresight can play an important role in creating and exploiting new knowledge, and that different methodologies can be more or less effective to this aim.Critical technology list and interactive workshops, with the participation of entrepreneurs of SMEs and technologists, are more suited to foster the transfer of technologies that have overcome the initial stage of the life cycle and that have been already applied in other sectors. However, when radical innovations are needed in order to face the challenges posed by global competition, other methodologies, as Scenarios, are more appropriate. Even if these approaches are complex and time and resource consuming, they may be very effective in actively involving the most relevant private and public stakeholders of a district, and in making them to envisage the long term future of the economic, social, and cultural structure of their district. In this way Foresight drives the small entrepreneurs, the district stakeholders and the medium and large size firms to play the critical roles of Nonaka and Takeuchi's “frontline employees”, “senior managers” and “middle managers” in their “knowledge creating company”: the first ones grasp what the district is; the second ones build the vision of what it ought to be; the third ones, serve as a bridge between the future and the present.     

Organizational ambidexterity: Integrating deliberate and emergent strategy with scenario planning

In this article we propose scenario planning as a tool for fostering organizational ambidexterity. The concept of organizational ambidexterity continues to gain attention, however, clear methods for developing this organizational ability are generally not offered. We therefore describe organizational ambidexterity and situate it in the general strategy literature. Key characteristics of organizational ambidexterity are provided, and the logical link to scenario planning is made. As the concept of organizational ambidexterity is relatively novel, our proposal highlights the use of scenario planning as a potential tool for developing this organizational “skill”, and clear next steps are described to examine our proposal as well as leverage the concept of organizational ambidexterity beyond that of a simple metaphor.     

In praise of tax havens: International tax planning and foreign direct investment

The multinationalization of corporate investment in recent years has given rise to a number of international tax avoidance schemes that may be eroding tax revenues in industrialized countries, but which may also reduce tax burdens on mobile capital and so facilitate investment. Both the welfare effects of and the optimal response to international tax planning are therefore ambiguous. Evaluating these factors in a simple general equilibrium model, we find that citizens of high-tax countries benefit from (some) tax planning. Paradoxically, if tax rates are not too high, an increase in tax planning activity causes a rise in optimal corporate tax rates, and a decline in multinational investment. Thus fears of a “race to the bottom” in corporate tax rates may be misplaced.     

An evolutionary approach to learning in a changing environment

The evolutionary fitness of the ability to learn a best response (at a cost) is explored in an environment where the underlying game changes stochastically over time. We provide a sufficient condition for asymptotic dominance by the learners. It does not require that the learners are the most fit type in any single state of the environment. We identify a necessary and sufficient condition that ensures the survival of the learners when learning costs are small. Last, we describe a medium-run phenomenon where the learners “spike”—their share temporarily rises and gets arbitrarily close to one following a regime shift.     

应急物流条件下的路径选择问题研究

面对日益频发的各种灾害,尤其特大灾害,应急条件下的物流管理越来越受到人们的重视.针对已存的关于应急物流的路径选择问题研究文献中,普遍将物资运输的运输速度视作常量,或者以降低速度,以获得高可靠性,牺牲了应急救灾的宝贵时间,本文将运输过程中灾难对道路在时间上和空间上,以及人们在应对灾难的特殊思维考虑在内,建立起了两个模型,分别通过经典算法Dijkstra标号算法和动态规划法求解.然后以具体的实例,验证了这两种算法可行性和对比之下的优劣性.最后,得出把动态规划思想应用于应急状态下的路径选择问题的研究中是可取的.