Multiple perspectives on planning for emergencies: An introduction to the special issue on planning and foresight for emergency preparedness and management

This introduction highlights the diversity of national localities, research methods, case studies, and topics covered by the papers selected for inclusion in the special issue on “Planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness and management.” It then provides a detailed summary of each study, emphasizing what the editors feel are the most important contributions. Concluding remarks include a call for future studies that are needed. An example is planning for ways of supporting and integrating citizen participation in all phases of crisis management, a topic that is missing from this collection.     

Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact

In this paper we analyze how to apply cross-impact modeling for developing collaborative scenarios in Emergency Preparedness. Scenarios can enhance the understanding of emergency teams about the factors which are involved in the definition of an emergency plan and how different actors participate in it. The version of Cross-Impact Analysis described aims at contributing to this goal through allowing the collaborative development of scenarios out of large event sets. This ultimately reduces the complexity for estimating a working model. In order to illustrate this research effort hypothetical results of a dirty bomb attack scenario exercise are presented, along with the final estimates of relationships based on four rounds of individual estimates followed by discussion of differences in the perceived relationships, in order to achieve a “consensus” model. The purpose of this exercise is to demonstrate the ability of a group to create a working model of the scenario that may be used to examine the consequences of various assumptions about preparedness, plans, and the actions taken during the crisis situation. The method may be used as either a planning tool and/or a training tool. We discuss the process for collecting inputs from a collaborative group and how to improve the consistency of the group inputs in a Delphi-like feedback process. Suggestions for improving details of the wording of items in order to minimize misunderstandings and miscommunication are included, along with suggestions for future extensions to this research.     

Improving emergency plans management with SAGA

Emergency plans are the tangible result of the preparedness activities of the emergency management lifecycle. In many countries, public service organizations have the legal obligation to develop and maintain emergency plans covering all possible hazards relative to their areas of operation. However, little support is provided to planners in the development and use of plans. Often, advances in software technology have not been exploited, and plans remain as text documents whose accessibility is very limited. In this paper, we advocate for the definition and implementation of plan management processes as the first step to better produce and manage emergency plans. The main contribution of our work is to raise the need for IT-enabled planning environments, either at the national or organization-specific levels, which can lead to more uniform plans that are easier to evaluate and share, with support to stakeholders other than responders, among other advantages. To illustrate our proposal, we introduce SAGA, a framework that supports the full lifecycle of emergency plan management. SAGA provides all the actors involved in plan management with a number of tools to support all the stages of the plan lifecycle. We outline the architecture of the system, and show with a case study how planning processes can benefit from a system like SAGA.     

The importance of social learning and culture for sustainable water management

Currently water resources management is undergoing a major paradigm shift. Water resources management has a strong engineering tradition based on controlling environmental problems with technical solutions. The management of risks relied on the ability to predict extremes and limit their impact with technical means such as dikes, dams and reservoirs. In this paradigm, belief systems, human attitudes and collective behaviours are perceived as external boundary conditions and not as integral part of management. However, the situation has started to change dramatically. Over the past years, integrated water resources management has become the reigning paradigm. The importance of governance and cultural adaptation has become a major issue of concern. At the same time, there is a paucity of adequate scientific concepts that would allow addressing these issues. This paper introduces a concept for social learning developed in the European project HarmoniCOP and discusses its implications for the cultural and institutional context of water resources management. It aims to contribute to the new paradigm of integrated resource management by discussing the importance of processes of culture and social learning for environmental resources management, in general, and water resources management, in particular.     

Plans never go according to plan: An empirical analysis of challenges to plans during the 2009 Victoria bushfires

Uncertainty is a major challenge for emergency, disaster and public safety decision-makers when planning and preparing for disasters and when executing plans. This research explores unexpected challenges to the Victoria State disaster plan before and during the “Black Saturday” Australian bushfires of 7 February, 2009 that significantly contributed to the scale of the disaster in which 173 persons perished. The article adopts Barry Turner's sequence model of intelligence failure to frame the empirical analysis. The article is based on content analysis of publicly available data and information complimented with face to face interviews of public-sector and non-government organization (NGO) emergency and disaster managers in Victoria. The research found inadequacies in strategic planning and in the appreciation of the community risk scenario in the response of public-sector disaster managers to the heat wave in the days preceding the bushfires. It also found failures in warning, command and control due to loss of sense-making and information difficulties on “Black Saturday” itself. The article suggests strategies that disaster and emergency response managers, planners and local authorities may consider in bushfire preparedness and response planning.     

The relative importance of human resource management practices for innovation

Human resource management (HRM) practices are generally expected to stimulate a firm's innovation performance. However, which of these practices really pay off? Based on a unique dataset that includes detailed information for both a firm's innovation activities and a broad set of HRM practices, we find that primarily new workplace organization practices seem to enhance a firm's innovation activities. Flexible practices of working time management and incentive payment schemes show only small effects on both innovation propensity and innovation success. Further training does only affect innovation success, but not innovation propensity. Overall, we find a stronger linkage between HRM practices and innovation propensity than with innovation success. Further, we find that innovation propensity increases, first, with the number of combinations of HRM practices adopted by a firm but not with the number of combinations of HRM practices from different groups of HRM practices adopted by a firm.     

Output sharing in partnerships as a common pool resource management instrument

Many economic environments are susceptible to either free-riding or overuse. Common pool resources (CPRs) fall in the latter category. Equally sharing the output of a CPR in partnerships introduces a free-riding incentive that may offset overuse. Socially optimal harvesting can be induced by dividing the set of resource users into a number of partnerships in such a way that each resource users’ tendency to over-harvest from the resource is exactly offset by his or her tendency to free-ride on the contributions of others. We conduct a laboratory experiment to assess the performance of this partnership solution by introducing equal-sharing subgroups of size one, four and six into a twelve-person CPR environment. Group assignment is either unchanging throughout a 15 period session or randomly mixed each decision round. Group size significantly affects aggregate effort, while group assignment makes no significant difference. The distribution of total payoffs is more equitable for randomly mixed groups. Implications of our results for voluntary and centralized implementations of the partnership solution are discussed.

Using patient-reported outcome assessments in clinical practice and their importance in risk management

Abstract

Patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments are related to risk management programmes in that they are tools to measure the benefits and risks of exposure to pharmaceutical products from the patient's perspective. Clinical measures of improvement of certain conditions may not necessarily correlate with improvements in a patient's ability to perform daily activities. PRO data, when properly administered, collected, analysed and returned to physicians are a very useful source of information. This will ultimately address safety concerns, facilitate the physician–patient relationship and improve patients' compliance to treatment in routine patient care. In this article we stress the importance of PRO in risk management.     

Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences

The Delphi method is a popular technique for forecasting and an aid in decision-making based on the opinions of experts, which has been in existence for over half a century. This work evaluates its methodology and reviews its validity in the present day, especially in the area of Social Sciences. Three recent applications in this field are also explained, professional in nature, which have some characteristics that are not frequent with respect to other Delphi studies published. The main aim of two of these studies was to provide input for economic or statistical quantitative models, using the judgement of expert groups, while the third study aimed to analyse a complex social reality by means of a Policy Delphi in order to obtain reliable information before taking a policy decision. These applications highlight how this technique may be adapted to different social realities and requirements, making a positive contribution to social progress, provided it is applied with the necessary methodological rigour and with a good knowledge of the social medium in which it is being applied. Finally, there is an explanation of a number of lessons learned from the theory and aforementioned experiences, which may contribute to the successful outcome of a Delphi exercise.     

The importance of bioeconomic feedback in invasive species management

Invasive species can pose significant risks to society. Managing invasive risks cost-effectively would likely benefit from an integrated bioeconomic framework that accounts for the feedback links between the biological and economic systems. Modeling these feedbacks can be challenging relative to the standard “damage function” approach in which the parameters from one system are added to a model of the other, without any feedback. Given time constraints, the open question is whether the effort to capture feedback links is worthwhile and provides more useful information than not integrating. Herein, we use as our foil the case of zebra mussels in a Midwestern Lake. We consider responses from the removal of two forms of feedback: the loop between the firm and the biological system, and a loop between the manager and a firm. Our results suggest accounting for feedbacks can matter—but not in every dimension.     

The challenge of understanding decisions in experimental studies of common pool resource governance

Common pool resource experiments in the laboratory and the field have provided insights that have contrasted to those derived from conventional non-cooperative game theory. Contrary to predictions from non-cooperative game theory, participants are sometimes willing to restrain voluntarily from over extracting resources and use costly punishment to sanction other participants. Something as simple as face-to-face communication has been shown to increase average earnings significantly. In the next generation of experiments, both in the laboratory and in the field, we need to extract more information that provides insight concerning why people make the decisions they make. More information is needed concerning attributes of individuals as well as the social and social-ecological context in which they interact that may give rise to such deviations from theoretical predictions. In the process of extracting more information from participants and the contexts in which they interact, we face several methodological and ethical challenges which we address in this paper.     

Selection processes in a Delphi study about key qualifications in Senior Secondary Vocational Education

The focus of this study is the Delphi method. First, a short history of the Delphi method is given. Then, different types of the Delphi method are described, and the validity and reliability of the Delphi method are discussed. Finally, this study reports on the selection processes and assessments faced when a policy Delphi was conducted into qualification issues in Senior Secondary Vocational Education in the Netherlands.     

The Delphi method as a ritual: Inquiring the Delphic Oracle

Is Delphi just a namesake? Or does it make sense to connect the Delphi method to the ancient Delphic Oracle? To bring some elements of response to these questions, this article will present the Delphic Oracle in the first part and its actions with its prophecy seekers and the Oracle's staff, including the Pythia. This first part will show the importance of conforming to the procedure in the revelation of the Oracle and the latter's role in policy-making. The second part of the article will compare and contrast the oracular practice in Delphi with the Delphi method, and more generally with expert-based futures methods, from the characteristics of the knowledge revealed, on the one hand, and the role of the actors in this inquiring process on the other.     

The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

设计师的人力资源管理

在当前市场竞争日益激烈的情况下,设计师的人力资源管理已成为设计管理领域的一个重要范畴。设计师设计创意的产生和创造力的应用对企业长远发展具有举足轻重的作用,企业组织内设计的创造性行为如果能有效加以激发、管理和整合,将有助于整体组织创造力的提升,进而提高企业竞争力。因此,设计师的人力资源管理就成为各大企业日益重视的一个管理方向。因此,立足于设计管理的基本构架,对设计师的人力资源的合理配置进行探讨,以期为相关企业提供一定的理论指导。     

Collective management of residential housing in Russia: The importance of being social

Homeowners associations (HOAs) implement collective management in residential housing. We assess the performance of such associations in Russia by using the stochastic frontier technique. Cultural traits enabling tenants to make proper use of the HOA decision-making procedures are essential for resolving the collective action problem and ensure accountability of governing bodies and outside contractors. Such “technical civic competence” has a stronger impact on HOA performance than more conventional forms of social capital which rise in their significance when HOA governance breaks down and informal grassroots alternatives are mobilized instead. Massive and indiscriminate “supply-led” introduction of collective management in residential housing without matching cultural and institutional prerequisites could be counterproductive. Flexibility, freedom of choice, and market development are required to avert the failures of HOAs commonly observed in Russia.     

The level of destination management in the South-Moravian Region

Tourism is not only a significant tool of prosperity in well-known tourist destinations, but it is also an important potential development element in developing rural regions. In Czech Republic, the field of regional development and managing destinations started to develop in the second half of the 1990s. Organizing tourism is in the phase of building and passes through natural development. Fierce competition between individual destinations imposes natural pressures on creating marketing managements of these destinations and such offer of products that perfectly come up to tourists＇ expectations. Together with increasing requirements, the demands on quality and well-prepared destinations within home tourism revive. In the final consequence, the level of destination management influences the increase in marketability and attendance in the region. The paper outlines the main theoretical basis, principles and tools of destination management, and subsequently it summarizes the results of the analysis, and conducted survey, the objective of which was to prove the functioning of these principles in practice. The practical verification of the functioning of destination management principles in Czech Republic has been conducted in the South-Moravian region （JMK） which is one of the most-often-visited regions in the country. The set targets have been reached not only by analysing available secondary data, but the techniques of depth interviews with experts in a destination management company have also been used, as well as the techniques of an orientation questionnaire survey among travel agencies and offices that should be one of the partners for a well-functioning destination management company.     

Ecological and economic sustainability in fishery management: A multi-agent model for understanding competition and cooperation

Recent studies have shown that many marine ecosystems are experiencing an accelerating loss of population and biodiversity. It is apparent that there is a growing disparity between the available supply of fish and the desire of the growing world population to catch them. Although studies have begun to question the ecological sustainability of managed fishery systems, they often omit the corresponding effects on the economic sustainability of fishery industries. This is particularly important in rural coastal areas where the fishing industry is often a dominant employer. In this article, we analyze the interactions between economic and ecological dynamic systems using a multi-agent dynamic model of fishery management. Multiple agents (fishers) harvest multiple fish species and adapt the amount and allocation of their effort to their value functions, which are given as net profits of the fish harvest sold for a market price. This is largely unique in fishery models, since many econometric studies view fishers as represented by homogenous ‘average’ agents. We introduce and compare two different decision rules governing the behavior of fishers engaged in a competitive market. We demonstrate a situation where both behaviors lead to a decline of all fish stocks, as well as profits for most fishers. As an alternative, we introduce a cooperative approach in which fisheries jointly set sustainable limits for total harvest and effort that are then distributed to the fishers according to distribution rules. The simulation reveals that fish stocks and profits can stabilize at significantly higher levels in the cooperative case, leading to a continuous accumulation of capital for all fishers. This model demonstrates key aspects of overfishing conflicts that can be overcome through planned fishing quotas and cooperative market mechanisms. It also demonstrates a novel approach for simulating the dynamic behavior of heterogeneous fishers.     

Managers in making The Zen management way

In the 21st century every manager in making requires a unique balance in personal, professional, family and social life so that he/she can enjoy and motivate himself to make others happy around him or her. The ego plays a major role in our life. Practicing Zen in management takes the manager to a level of egolessness. Zen finds its source in the experience of Shakyamuni Buddha, who in the process of enlightenment came across the elements of mindfulness and concentration--The noble eightfold path. These are key elements of success for the ＂managers in making＂. The purpose of this paper consists in rethinking today＇s management systems in order to look for ways of management which are better adapted to human life. It is assumed that a management practice which takes into consideration of the characteristics of human life must be accepted by a large number of people and would be effective and sustainable. This paper highlights the eight elements of＂The noble eightfold path＂ and its effective implications in management for the ＂managers in making＂ process--A guide towards success.     

物流管理专业教学改革研究

近几年来,随着物流业在中国的迅速发展,各高校相继成立了物流管理专业,河北农业大学商学院的物流管理专业虽成立较晚,但发展较快,招生情况比较乐观。在面对乐观形势的同时,目前在教学方面还存在着许多问题,如教学内容陈旧、教学方法单一、师资水平低等。本文针对目前教学中存在的问题,以物流管理专业的教学改革进行了研究,提出了五点有针对性的改革建议。