Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.     

科技安全风险评估及监测预警系统构建研究

科技领域安全是国家安全的重要组成部分，而复杂的国际局势、严苛的技术限制以及当代科技面临的颠覆性发展趋势已引发一系列关涉科技安全的重大问题，给我国国家安全和公共安全带来严峻挑战。从风险评估与安全预警视角出发，依循“变量识别—数据评估—安全预警—预案调用”的预警思路，运用专家访谈、扎根理论和层次分析法，构建科技安全风险评估框架，并提出科技安全监测预警系统构建逻辑。其中，科技安全风险评估框架主要包括要素性、自反性、自主性、保障性风险4类关键指标；监测预警系统建立在风险评估框架基础上，主要包含警情评估、警情报告、管理决策、应急预案4个子系统。基于研究结果，针对我国科技安全监测预警系统构建提出相关建议，以期为我国科技治理及保障科技安全提供新思路。     

Removing the blinders: A literature review on the potential of nanoscale technologies for the management of supply chains

Supply chain management requires more intelligent technology in the future; however, the current sensor technology is causing a bottleneck in the development of an intelligent supply chain. The emergence and development of nanosensors provide a good opportunity to improve the complex technical issues that supply chains need and may bring revolutionary changes to supply chains in the future. This paper reviews the current and potential application of nanosensors to every aspect of supply chains, including the SCM system, packaging, storage and distribution, supply chain safety, tracking and tracing. The particular focus will be on removing the blinders to the true potential technologies on the nanoscale for the future, not just for the management of supply chains but for firms seeking to become more competitive. This review will shed light on the profound impact nanotechnologies could have in augmenting or replacing the existing radiofrequency identification (RFID) tags or bar-code technologies.     

Comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security for land use: a case study of Yanchi County, Ningxia Province

As an abstract study conception, most researches of ecological security generally are macro-scale theoretical study with a regional, national or global perspective. Micro-scale research mainly concentrates on ecological risk, ecosystem health and ecosystem safety. In order to assess regional ecological security and to accomplish the transition from micro-scale to macro-scale research, a Driving-Function-State-Output-Respond model framework （DFSOR model） is put forward in this paper according to the analyses on regional population, society, economy resources, environment and ecological risks＇. In empirical research an index system is set out to evaluate ecological security of land use. The DFSOR model comprises five group of indicators： （1） driving indicators, which include social population pressure and economic pressure; （2）function indicators, which include human function, hydrodynamic function, wind function and gravity.function; （3） state indicators, which include soil resources, water resources and land use/land cover; （4） output indicators, which include production output and ecological risk output; （5） response indicators, which are composed of all sorts of policies and measures for improving production of ecosystem. The method and procedure for ecological security evaluation is put forward based on DFSOR model as well. In the case study, Yanchi, the ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry, is chosen for the study. An index system is built to evaluate ecological security based on the evaluation of regional ecological risks which including sandification, water erosion, soil salinization, soil pollution and shortage of water. The comprehensive evaluation result shows the regional ecological security index of land use in the research area increase obviously. But it is still in the state of low-graded danger.     

The Delphi method as early warning: Linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in The Netherlands

A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were conducted in anonymous writing. The third round was a face to face focus group meeting. In the first and second round participants scored the trends, adjusted their scores relative to others and provided arguments, and in the focus group meeting, themes were discussed in which the participants remained to have strong opposite views. This approach emphasizes divergence in opinion (‘dissensus’), as opposed to convergence (‘consensus’). Consensus seeking to us seems to be the dominant application of Delphi, but we emphasize the value of seeking dissensus. We hypothesize that in those cases where the opposite views that were discussed kept their ground, this Delphi study may have found early warnings of future radicalization.The essence of this paper is that it is possible, with limited effort, to get a handle on the complex and poorly defined subject of global societal trends influencing future radicalization. Application of the Dissensus Delphi method provided a selection of early warnings that may be looked into with future research.     

Enhancing rigour in the Delphi technique research

The cornerstone of good research is establishing integrity. However, identifying and gauging methodological rigour for the Delphi technique remains elusive. This is due to a number of reasons such as the ongoing epistemological debate, along with continual modifications. Consequently, the scant studies exploring rigour are mainly experimental, component specific and outdated. This paper discusses the literature on establishing rigour in Delphi studies, the methodological trinity of reliability, validity and trustworthiness. In addition it presents a discussion of the principal forms of establishing rigour, such as the application of rigour using both qualitative and quantitative measurements and corroborating results with relevant evidence in the field for each individual Delphi. Addressing such issues will help enhance the development and utilisation of rigour in the future.     

Identification of future fields of standardisation: An explorative application of the Delphi methodology

This paper investigates the application of the Delphi methodology for the identification of future fields of standardisation complemented by a methodological extension by using various science and technology indicators. By the term standardisation, we broadly mean the process of developing and implementing technical standards within a standardisation body. Underlining the explorative nature of this paper, we describe the process of identifying future fields of standardisation.To provide a systematic forecasting view on complex science and technology fields, a combination of quantitative indicator-based analyses and qualitative in-depth Delphi surveys is choosen. Firstly, statistical analyses of suitable indicators are used to identify dynamic developments in such fields. Secondly, to identify detailed challenges for future standardisation, qualitative Delphi surveys are conducted. To collect and evaluate relevant issues the respective expert communities were included. They were identified by using information derived from the science and technology databases used.The paper concludes with the assessment of the chosen approach and give practical insights for its feasibility based on a review of the existing literature on the Delphi methodology. In addition, an outlook for further improvements and other possible fields of application is given.     

Sustainable global automobile transport in the 21st century: An integrated scenario analysis

Transport represents a significant threat to long-term sustainable development, and is one of the fastest-growing consumers of final energy and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, transport is heavily reliant on petroleum, a limited resource that is also associated with geopolitical risks to security of supply. Together, threats to the global environment and limited resource availability warrant a closer examination of possible pathways to a sustainable transport system. This study describes a sustainable automobile transport scenario based on the SRES B2 scenario, but with key demographic and economic drivers updated to incorporate developments between 1990 and 2000, and revisions to population projections. Multiple sustainable development objectives are incorporated, including: i) continuing economic growth, with a moderate reduction in disparities in income between different world regions; ii) maintaining a buffer of oil and gas resources to enhance security of energy supply, both globally and in vulnerable regions; iii) abating greenhouse gas emissions to ensure atmospheric CO₂ concentrations do not exceed double pre-industrial levels; and iv) ensuring global mobility demands are met, without resorting to assumptions about a large counter-trend shift to public transport or lower travel demand. We then explore the technological, economic, fuel production and infrastructure implications of realizing this scenario over the long term. This provides a number of policy insights by identifying critical developments required for the emergence of a sustainable global passenger transport and energy system.     

International trade,foreign direct investments,and firms’ systemic risk : Evidence from the Netherlands

This paper measures the contribution of firms in the financial and non-financial sectors to systemic risk. We quantify systemic risk as possible risk spillovers from individual firms to the economy by taking into account time-varying linkages between the firm and the economy. Based on a novel dataset that combines data on international trade and foreign direct investments with daily stock data for 67 Dutch listed companies from 2006–2015, our results indicate that high systemic risk contributions are not only present in the financial sector, but also occur in other sectors of the economy. We find that firms within the financial sector are more capable than non-financial firms of reverting to their pre-financial crisis level of systemic risk contribution. Having examined the potential role globalization fulfills in determining systemic risk, we find two main opposing effects. First, firms in internationally trade-intensive sectors contribute less to systemic risk than firms in sectors with low trade intensity. Second, systemic risk rises when firms are engaged in foreign direct investment activity, suggesting that international networks and global supply chains contribute to systemic risk propagation. Our empirical results imply that macro-prudential policy aimed at monitoring systemic risk should be extended to non-financial sectors and should take into consideration globalization measures, such as foreign direct investments and global supply chains.     

Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study

In this paper, we present the findings of a web-based real-time Delphi study concerning the factors which will influence the future development of the transport infrastructure until the year 2030. Intensifying globalization, increased urbanization, ongoing shortages in public finances, and the requirements of a more demanding and growing world population are some of the challenges, which global transport will face. This research identifies, assesses, and integrates long-range developments of various factors, such as supply and demand, financing, competitiveness, and sustainability, which will affect the future of the transport industry and its infrastructure. Results are presented in a final probable scenario, which is divided into four different scenario aspects. Moreover, managerial and governmental implications for strategy and policy development are discussed.     

The use of Delphi methodology in agrifood policy development: Some lessons learned

Developing policy in the agrifood area is an inexact process, usually relying upon effective integration of opinions from multiple experts from different disciplines, organisational types, and regions/countries. Delphi would appear to have the potential to overcome some of the typical limitations related to soliciting expert opinion and identifying consensus on future activities or options, particularly where relevant experts are dispersed geographically, and international consensus is required, as is the case in this domain. Three case studies, focused on the application of Delphi to emerging policy needs in international or European agrifood policy, are presented here to exemplify the utility of the technique. A number of practical recommendations are drawn from these case studies that may be applicable to other major policy making arenas. Among these recommendations are; that an exploratory workshop to refine round one Delphi questions is essential; that the implementation of “cascade” methodology (utilizing the personal contacts of researchers or members of existing policy networks) appears to increase response rates in subsequent Delphi rounds; and that the policy issue under discussion should be particularly relevant to stakeholders in order to increase participation rates. Further research might usefully focus on developing ways to incorporate measurements of uncertainty associated with stakeholder judgement into quantitative responses, and on establishing how best to utilise such information in feedback in subsequent Delphi rounds. Ensuring how best to inform policy uptake of the outputs of Delphi merits further research in particular.     

Quo Vadis MRIO? Methodological, data and institutional requirements for multi-region input-output analysis

In order to understand wider sustainability impacts of consumption and to successfully promote and implement sustainable consumption and production policies, there is a need to capture the whole life-cycle impact of products and services across international supply chains. Multi-region input-output (MRIO) databases are a well described and suitable foundation for global sustainability analyses addressing a wide range of policy and research questions. In this paper we reflect on the reasons for the recent boom in MRIO compilation, summarise the current state of development and discuss future options for MRIO analysis. We list in detail the requirements for efficient and effective MRIO research and propose systemic and institutional changes. We deliberately try to go beyond existing ambitions for MRIO compilation and thus intend to stimulate discussion and to lay out the options for the future of MRIO research.     

An integrated decision-support approach in prioritizing risks of non-indigenous species in the face of high uncertainty

When evaluating the risks of future invasions, we often have sparse information on the likelihood that a species will arrive, establish and spread in a new environment, and on the potential impacts should this occur. Conventional risk assessment, therefore, is limited in providing guidance in managing the risk of non-indigenous species (NIS). However, risk management decisions must be made facing these uncertainties to avoid high and irreversible impacts.We develop an integrated ecological economic modeling and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation (DMCE) approach to support group decision-making in risk prioritization, using an example of ten NIS that could potentially impact Australian plant industries. This innovative approach seeks to combine the advantages of dynamic modeling with the benefits of DMCE in assessing and communicating uncertainty. The model unveils the complexity of the socio-ecological system of biological invasion, with a scenario analysis designed to interactively communicate scientific uncertainty to decision-makers. The DMCE provides a structured approach to identifying stakeholders' key concerns in addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions of NIS risk explicitly. Functioning as a platform for risk communication, the DMCE also offers an opportunity for diverse views to enter the decision-making process and for the negotiation of consensus consensuses.     

Strong–weak collaborative management in coping supply chain disruption risk transmission based on scale-free networks

Supply chain disruption causes tremendous loss to supply chains and global businesses. Organizational structure and operational features of supply chain networks, therefore, constitute a major portion of research for coping with supply chain disruption risk. This article first discusses the theoretical foundation, analyses the strength theory of strong and weak ties and the collaborative theory of strong and weak ties. Also, research methods are explicated; the scale-free networks and the theory of strong ties are integrated; the features of supply chain networks are considered from single statistical parameters and comprehensive analyses. Next, we provide numeric simulation of the properties of supply chain networks, verifying the accuracy of parameter analyses of single statistics and comprehensive analyses. Ultimately, when coping with supply chain disruption risk, each node enterprise of supply chain network is supposed to deploy the characteristics of scale-free networks to systematically manage existing weak ties, weak ties newly introduced, existing strong ties and strong ties newly introduced. This study is conducive to node enterprises of supply chains to recognize and apply the scale-free networks and the strength theory of ties to analyze the properties of supply chain networks, and to improve the capacity to cope with disruption risk.     

企业资金担保链:风险消释、风险传染与风险共享——基于浙江的案例研究

本文对企业资金担保链的风险共享机制进行了分析,结果发现:(1)企业资金担保链组成了一个"线、环、网"系统的风险共享体系;(2)其风险消释机制表现为融入资金担保链企业的融资能力比独立企业强;(3)其风险传染机制表现为通过资产负债表渠道、信息传染渠道、投资传染渠道等形式对危机进行传染。本文随后对企业资金担保链的风险共享机制进行了理论提升,研究发现,只有当整体经济环境有利时,资金担保链是有益的;反之,则会导致企业全部陷入困境。     

Delphi forecasting: Future issues in grievance arbitration

For the time period 1974–1977 there has not existed a list of new and future arbitration issues, ranked or otherwise. This research was conducted to contribute to an update of the literature on the major new and future issues in grievance arbitration. A Delphi survey was selected as the data collection instrument. This article will focus on the predicted future issues in grievance arbitration.     

社会保障财政风险与危机管理战略

我国正处于各种风险的频发期,给社会保障带来的影响不断加深,政府社会保障管理的难度也在不断扩大。在社会保障的常规性管理中贯穿风险意识、忧患意识、可持续发展意识,建立社会保障财政危机管理的核心价值观,是引领社会保障管理走向理性化、科学化的必要之路。以中国国情作为研究背景,探讨应对各种社会经济风险、自然灾害下的社会保障功能与政府职能问题,也从长期发展考虑,研究社会保障的战略发展模式,促使社会保障事业健康地发展。     

An introduction to the Millennium Project

The pace, complexity, and globalization of change requires attention to the future. The change of millennia — the coming of the year 2001 — provides an opportunity, a psychological focus, for a global review of past achievements and problems and a unique chance to assess and reflect on future issues and opportunities.Unfortunately, there is as yet no mechanism or information utility to support a worldwide effort to study past achievements and problems or future issues and opportunities. Although there are many individual, isolated, special purpose, and one-time study efforts underway, there is no international system that can provide coherence or continuity to these studies, including feedback and sharing of information, and, in particular, the systematic exploration of future possibilities and policy alternatives. With growing interest in the future, the spread of instantaneous and global communications, the advent of powerful new nondeterministic modeling techniques, the ability to evoke, capture, and share information and perceptions with systematic questioning techniques and software, the proliferation of data bases, and knowledge visualization, it is now possible for futurists, scholars and others around the world to interact globally and take a fresh look at the future possibilities and policies in ways not previously possible.As the World Bank provides an ongoing system for research and feedback to improve economic policy, so too the United Nations University could provide an ongoing system for the improvement of futures research and its application to the policy process. According to a series of interviews, questionnaires, and meetings with leading futurists and scholars around the world, the proposed “Millenium Project” has the potential to become such a system.This study had as its principal objective determining the design of an information system that could effectively tap contributors, worldwide, to focus on lessons of the past that bear on world issues and the potential of future developments for intensifying or mitigating these and future issues. The first phase of the feasibility study was both methodological and substantive. Worldwide panels of experts contributed their judgments about the method or process of organizing the project; and the system that emerged from this interaction was applied in a prototype study to the issues of growing world population and the environment.During the first phase of the feasibility study, we found that:

1. 1. The Millennium Project is feasible and likely to be helpful to many institutions in examining and resolving policy issues at several levels. An overview of the project design and objectives appears in Section 2 of this article.

2. 2. Organizations that have an issues scanning function, or have a mandate to keep abreast of a broad range of futures thinking, have a need for access to a non-political, scholarly, and international system of future studies. Such organizations have requested continued participation in the second and third phase of this feasibility study, as well as establishing formal relations with the full Millennium Project.

3. 3. While several questions remain, the design features of a system to collect judgments using the Delphi process that were suggested by the international panel (outlined elsewhere in this report) form a straight forward operational system. Among the remaining questions are the design and use of international information systems and data bases, integration with quantitative techniques such as system modeling, the requirements for special study teams, and institutionalization and financial support. The design of the operational system is described in detail in Section 3 of this report.

4. 4. Cost estimates have been made for establishing international panels and collecting and analyzing information they provide using the Delphi process. Several assumptions are required. If a maximum of four topics are addressed in a particular year, each of the four panels consists of 150–200 people, the staff is kept to a base of three people with an additional 1.5 per panel, and advisors are paid an honorarium of $1.500, then the cost of this element of the full scale Project is likely to be approximately $900,000 per year. While communications modes are important in terms of timing and information access, the costs of communications are the smallest of the Project's cost elements. Detail of our cost estimates appear in Section 7 of this report.

This is not the final feasibility study report, but only a report on part of Phase I. As such, it contains our initial findings about how the Project might be organized. We welcome comments from the reader. Please consider this as work in progress.     

Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results

In foresight activities uncertainty is high and decision makers frequently have to rely on human judgment. Human judgment, however, is subject to numerous cognitive biases. In this paper, we study the effects of the desirability bias in foresight. We analyze data from six Delphi studies and observe that participants systematically estimate the probability of occurrence for desirable (undesirable) future projections higher (lower) than the probability for projections with neutral desirability. We also demonstrate that in the course of a multi-round Delphi process, this bias decreases but is not necessarily eliminated. Arguably, the quality of decisions based on Delphi results may be adversely affected if experts share a pronounced and common desirability for a future projection. Researchers and decision makers have to be aware of the existence and potential consequences of such a desirability bias in Delphi studies when interpreting their results and taking decisions. We propose a post-hoc procedure to identify and quantify the extent to which the desirability bias affects Delphi results. The results of this post-hoc procedure complement traditional Delphi results; they provide researchers and decision makers with information on when and to which extent results of Delphi-based foresight may be biased.     

An empirical investigation of complexity and its management in new product development

New product development (NPD) programmes are increasingly complex and difficult to manage. The consequences of poorly managed development complexity can be highly visible and even lead to project failure. To effectively screen new product proposals and manage NPD projects more efficiently, NPD teams need to be equipped with the capacity to identify development complexity and possess the knowledge to manage it. Unfortunately, there have been few studies which specifically illuminate the challenges and experiences product developers face in dealing with complexity. Our research attempts to help fill this gap. Our study is based on exploratory field interviews with 32 project leaders and team members. We first focus on identifying the specific complexity issues encountered in NPD. We then identify what NPD teams actually do to minimise the potential adverse consequences of complexity. Finally, we examine whether a company's development process reduces or increases the complexities NPD teams encounter. Based upon our research, we present our results and conclude by offering several recommendations for complexity management as well as suggestions for future research.