The future of the future: Strategic foresight in Latin America

With few differences in timing, future studies in Latin America were initiated with a linear conception of reality. Orchestrated with techniques such as the Delphi, future studies were supported by mathematical principles of probability. Several countries have surpassed this stage while moving into strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analyzes the future as a multiple reality. In other words, it means thinking differently and not reading reality in a linear manner. It means accepting that there is not one future but several futures and that one question could have more than one answer.This change has demanded a shift in mentality. The presence of the disciplines in universities is of vital importance. For example, the Technological Institute of Monterrey (Mexico) and the Universidad Externado de Colombia (Bogota) offer foresight and strategy programs at the graduate level.This article describes how different individuals, groups, agencies and institutions in Latin America have emerged thanks to the support provided by the science and technology governmental agencies of each country. The author provides examples from different countries including Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Currently, strategic foresight is slowly gaining recognition and acceptance as a compass for productive sectors and as a generator of competitiveness.However, despite the contributions of strategic foresight, Latin American countries, with the exception of some of the above-mentioned countries, have struggled to take off into the future. The role of strategic foresight can become the driving force behind this awakening, if the challenge of linking global trends with local contextualization through scenarios is accepted.     

我国政府危机管理现状及对策分析

当前我国已进入一个危机事件高发期，政府危机管理能力的提高是亟待解决的问题，本文对我国政府危机管理现状及现存问题进行分析，并从体制、技术等角度提出一些对策，以期待推进我国政府危机管理能力的提高。     

Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm

In the last three decades much knowledge has been produced on how best to conduct foresight exercises, but little is known on how foresight should be integrated with the innovation effort of a company. Drawing on empirical evidence from 19 case studies and 107 interviews, we identify three roles that corporate foresight should play to maximize the innovation capacity of a firm: (1) the strategist role, which explores new business fields; (2) the initiator role, which increases the number of innovation concepts and ideas; and (3) the opponent role, which challenges innovation projects to increase the quality of their output.     

Strategic planning, strategic management, strategic foresight: The seminal work of H. Igor Ansoff

H. Igor Ansoff was the prominent reference in the corporate strategy field, especially during the 1960s and 1970s. His bestseller, Corporate Strategy, was the first to give a conceptual framework and a tool box to top managers, consultants and scholars. Recognized as the real pioneer of the field, he was seen by Henry Mintzberg as also the leader of the strategic planning school. The aim of this short article is to show that he was also the father of strategic management and a leader who gave an impressive set of concepts and ideas to promote an integrative and flexible view of strategic planning, strategic foresight, organizational structures and processes.     

Exploring the effect of crisis on cooperatives: a Bayesian performance analysis of French craftsmen cooperatives

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to understand the economic performance of craftsmen cooperatives during the crisis period. These cooperatives have the distinctive feature of being supply cooperatives. We use an exhaustive dataset for the French craftsmen cooperatives (2004–2014). We estimate Bayesian Translog econometric models in order to underline the impact of the 2008 crisis on these cooperatives. On the one hand, cooperatives’ turnover and economies of scales decrease during the crisis, the effect is lower for elder cooperatives and varies across sectors. On the other hand, there is a convergence towards the mean for the various generations of cooperatives. These findings are robust to alternative econometric specifications.     

The lesson and warning of a crisis foretold: a political economy approach

The financial crisis, which began in summer 2007 in the USA and then spread contagiously throughout the rest of the world, is systemic in nature. Indeed, it is not a local or regional crisis. It is the inevitable starting point of a process which for more than 30 years has changed at its very roots the financial way of being and doing, thus undermining the very bases of that liberal social order which is at the core of Western civilization. The nature of the causes of the crisis is twofold: those immediate, which speak of the specific characteristics adopted in recent times by the financial markets, and those remote, which blame aspects of the cultural matrix which accompanied the transition from industrial to financial capitalism. From the moment that epoch-making phenomenon which we call globalization began to take shape, finance not only constantly increased its quota of activity in the economic sphere, but it has also progressively contributed to transform both people’s cognitive maps and their value systems. It is to this latter that one refers today in speaking of the financialization of society. The article mainly deals with the remote causes of the crisis with the aim of showing the consequences of the misleading ideology diffused by mainstream economics, from which have drunk market agents, government political authorities and controlling agencies.      

The decision-making dimension of the systems approach to management

Theoretically, a system is anything that is made up of various parts. Theses parts are known as subsystems. At every point in time, these parts should work in harmony so that objectives could be achieved successfully. A system could be inanimate or animate item. Examples of inanimate systems include vehicles, households, computer and institution. Examples of animate systems are human being, animal and insect. Both inanimate and animate systems are made up of various subsystems. Such subsystems are required to co-operate, collaborate and work together so that set objectives could be achieved successfully. From practical managerial point of view, business organizations are equally systems that are made up of subsystems which may take the form of departments, sections and/or units. It is supposed to be collaborations among the managers and other members in these departments, sections and/or units so that organizational objectives could be achieved. All the managers in various departments, sections and/or units are required to work together as a team to make the system coherent and closely-knit to make disintegration impossible. Closely related to the systems approach to management is managerial decision-making. Decision-making is a very important function of every manager＇s job. The success and failure stories of many organizations are the result of the quality of decisions made. Many organizations have survived turbulent conditions. Others have also collapsed in spite of favourable conditions. These varying conditions are the result of the quality of decisions made by managers at positions of authority and responsibility. Therefore the systems approach to management enjoins top managers in particular to be very circumspect and cautious in certain decision-making activities. This is because, the quality of decision a manager makes can go a long way to determine the success or failure story of an organization as exemplified in the case study in this paper.     

The regulatory evolution of the post credit crisis fund management industry

The credit crisis that developed as a result of the problems in the US sub-prime mortgage market has consequences for the future shape of regulation of the fund management industry. The author examines the exposed agency problems, poor risk management, and the lack of liquidity in many fund offerings that have led to a number of new onerous regulations (as distinct from ‘acquired regulations’). The new regulations are changing the industry microstructure. Post credit crisis valuations are 73% of the pre credit crisis five-year levels, implying the markets are evaluating the industry differently in view of the many new challenges that it now faces.     

The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic planning: Lessons from Regional Infrastructure Foresight

The sustainable transformation of infrastructure sectors represents a challenge of prime importance worldwide. Due to long life times of infrastructures, strategic decision making has to explicitly consider uncertainties in context conditions, value considerations and available technological alternatives. However currently, strategic infrastructure planning is often carried out in a very narrow perspective. The present paper argues that foresight informed strategic planning, allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties, value conflicts and sustainability deficits in a structured way. The paper introduces a specific procedural proposal, the Regional Infrastructure Foresight method (RIF) and illustrates its potential virtues through an application to urban water management planning in a Swiss region (Kiesental).     

Institutions in the economy and some institutions of mainstream economics: From the late 1970s to the 2008 financial and economic crisis

This article proposes a conceptual and theoretical institutional approach to the relations between the economy and economics and uses it to examine, through a structured survey of the literature, the relations between institutions in the economy and the institutions of mainstream economics, macroeconomics, and financial economics, highlighting issues related to the financial and macroeconomic crisis and focusing on the United States from the late 1970s to 2008. Institutions are socially shared systems of rules of behavior or of thought. Some systems of mental and behavioral rules are socially shared among economic agents and policymakers in part because they are socially shared among academic economists. They may exert on economic agents and policymakers some of the same types of influence they have on economists. On the other hand, there are important limits to the influence of the institutions of economics outside academia, and institutions in the economy also influence the institutions of economics.     

心理契约在知识型员工管理中的应用分析

本文从知识型员工的特征出发,对知识型员工的管理问题进行探索。认为心理契约在知识型员工的管理中发挥着重要作用。企业应充分认识知识型员工心理契约的特点,并采取相应的管理措施,才能调动知识型员工的积极性,提高企业的管理效率。     

Antecedents of creative decision making in organizational crisis: A team-based simulation

Although it has been claimed that the devastation and complexities that characterize an organizational crisis may be addressed most effectively with creative solutions, theoretical and empirical research examining this challenge is scarce. We developed a theoretical model concerning creative decision making during organizational crisis for crisis management teams. To test this theory, we collected data from 191 individuals in 37 teams who participated in multi-hour, multi-phased organizational crisis simulations in the United States and Canada. Using regression analysis, we found that crisis management teams generated a creative decision when they were familiar with solutions, trusted their team members, and had creative intentions. This study supports organizational efforts to leverage education, training and accountability to reinforce creativity in crisis decision making.     

消费模式转型:国际金融危机视角下的反思

美国长期奉行的过度消费模式是本次国际金融危机的重要诱因.这种过度消费模式的形成既有其传统习惯的原因,也有其理论渊源和政府政策的引导.反观中国的消费模式,尽管已经发生或正在经历转型,但总体来说还是一种谨慎型消费,正是这种谨慎型消费,成为了中国抵御本次国际金融危机的一道屏障.在国际金融危机背景下中国应加快消费转型的步伐,大力促进适度消费,以实现经济又好又快发展.     

城市拆迁进程中弱势群体的风险治理

作为城市化建设的必经过程和必然趋势,城市拆迁的主旨是持续稳步推促城市化进程的展开,改善和提高城镇居民的生活质量和经济标准。然而由于某些原因,城市拆迁非但没有达到城市化进程的初衷,反而制造了新的贫困和弱势群体。与以往研究拆迁问题的角度有别,从风险社会理论的视角对城市拆迁问题进行探讨,对现行城市拆迁决策及其相关补偿安置制度进行反思,可以重塑政府责任伦理机制与矫正制度化风险,并能探寻政府风险管理和规避的应对策略。     

实施流程管理 提升运营质量

流程管理是以规范化地构造端到端的卓越业务流程为中心,以持续地提高组织业务绩效为目的的系统化方法,其核心是加强协作、提高效率,实施步骤和关键因素是流程管理企业流程管理的难点。某置业集团实施流程管理,经历建立标准、分类建模、评估上线、持续改进4个步骤,实现提高运营质量的目的,而目标驱动、完整适用、共同参与、持续优化和信息化支撑成为其关键因素。     

海南高职酒店管理专业校企合作现状与分析

为了深入了解行业企业在高职酒店人才培养过程中所起的作用、具体的运作方式及不同企业的关注点,课题组对海南省15家星级酒店进行了问卷调查和深度访谈。调研显示,高职院校在今后的校企合作过程中,应更加关注行业企业的需要,进行教育教学改革,探索形式多样的校企合作人才培养方式。     

The level of destination management in the South-Moravian Region

Tourism is not only a significant tool of prosperity in well-known tourist destinations, but it is also an important potential development element in developing rural regions. In Czech Republic, the field of regional development and managing destinations started to develop in the second half of the 1990s. Organizing tourism is in the phase of building and passes through natural development. Fierce competition between individual destinations imposes natural pressures on creating marketing managements of these destinations and such offer of products that perfectly come up to tourists＇ expectations. Together with increasing requirements, the demands on quality and well-prepared destinations within home tourism revive. In the final consequence, the level of destination management influences the increase in marketability and attendance in the region. The paper outlines the main theoretical basis, principles and tools of destination management, and subsequently it summarizes the results of the analysis, and conducted survey, the objective of which was to prove the functioning of these principles in practice. The practical verification of the functioning of destination management principles in Czech Republic has been conducted in the South-Moravian region （JMK） which is one of the most-often-visited regions in the country. The set targets have been reached not only by analysing available secondary data, but the techniques of depth interviews with experts in a destination management company have also been used, as well as the techniques of an orientation questionnaire survey among travel agencies and offices that should be one of the partners for a well-functioning destination management company.     

连锁经营超市物流配送的对策及措施研究

本文主要从连锁经营的角度来阐述超市物流配送的原则，优势以及连锁经营的核心等问题，进而得出连锁经营超市物流配送的对策及措施，具有可操作的实际意义,     

中国城市成长管理中政府工具选择与应用的现实必要

城市成长管理中的政府工具是城市政府在城市成长管理中所运用的各种技术、手段和方法的总称。在中国城市成长管理中,对政府工具加以科学的选择和应用,有助于确保城市发展的适度规模、确保城市空间紧凑拓展、确保城市文脉有序传承,有助于推进城市与乡村、城市与区域的协同发展。