Assessing the impact of tourist flows on emergency department treatment speed for residents and tourists. The case of Sorrento

Tourism is a fundamental lever of the economic and cultural development of a location. Large tourist flows can negatively impact the provision of public services, such as healthcare. This study aims to investigate emergency department (ED) treatment speed under increased demand caused by tourism. The analysis was conducted on data (covering March–October 2018) collected from the ED of a hospital in Sorrento, a renowned coastal tourist destination in Campania, Italy, by using a two-step strategy. First, we resort to the Kaplan-Meier method to compare treatment in the ED between residents and tourists. Second, through the Cox proportional hazards model, we study the impact of group-specific characteristics on the speed of treatment. The main empirical findings highlight that treatment speed is highly influenced by age and by the languages spoken by tourists. Foreign tourists are best served in off-peak periods, while in the peak arrival period, the healthcare system experiences difficulties, especially for those facing higher language barriers. What emerges is the necessity for a tourism destination to adopt measures to cope with the language heterogeneity of tourists. In a multi-cultural touristic context, healthcare providers and institutions should address the challenge of language barriers by using specialist interpreter services.     

Anticipating special events in Emergency Department forecasting

Accurate daily forecast of Emergency Department (ED) attendance helps roster planners in allocating available resources more effectively and potentially influences staffing. Since special events affect human behaviours, they may increase or decrease the demand for ED services. Therefore, it is crucial to model their impact and use them to forecast future attendance to improve roster planning and avoid reactive strategies. In this paper, we propose, for the first time, a forecasting model to generate both point and probabilistic daily forecast of ED attendance. We model the impact of special events on ED attendance by considering real-life ED data. We benchmark the accuracy of our model against three time-series techniques and a regression model that does not consider special events. We show that the proposed model outperforms its benchmarks across all horizons for both point and probabilistic forecasts. Results also show that our model is more robust with an increasing forecasting horizon. Moreover, we provide evidence on how different types of special events may increase or decrease ED attendance. Our model can easily be adapted for use not only by EDs but also by other health services. It could also be generalised to include more types of special events.     

基于ELES模型的黑龙江垦区居民消费结构分析

运用ELES模型对黑龙江垦区居民消费需求结构进行统计分析,具体分析了边际消费倾向和增量投放系数、需求的收入弹性、需求的价格弹性和交叉弹性,在此基础上针对黑龙江垦区居民现阶段消费结构的特点,提出了升级和优化黑龙江垦区居民消费结构的相关对策与建议。     

The flight to the suburbs of population and employment, 1960-1970

An econometric model of suburbanization in the United States is developed. The model is used to analyze changes in location of the population, classified by income and race, and of employment in 106 large SMSAs over the period 1960-1970. The results confirm that the differential mobility of upper-income and white residents has been a powerful force concentrating low-income and nonwhite residents in central cities. The interaction of population and employment location is confirmed.     

Commuting subsidies with two transport modes

We study a simple model of commuting subsidies with two transport modes. City residents choose where to live and which mode to use. When all land is owned by city residents, one group gains from subsidies what the other loses. With absentee landownership, city residents as a group gain at the expense of landowners. Subsidies toward different modes have different effects, however. For instance, in one case, rich automobile drivers suffer from transit subsidies, while poor transit users may benefit from subsidies to automobiles.     

Simplified Alonso–Mills–Muth model with a monopoly vendor

One important but unrealistic assumption in the simplified Alonso–Mills–Muth (AMM(0)) model is that the composite good is ubiquitous and thus there is zero shopping cost for residents. This paper assumes that the composite good is only sold by a monopoly vendor inside the city and hence a shopping cost is inevitable for residents. It is shown that the vendor will locate at the city boundary in equilibrium. In contrast to the symmetric land rent pattern in the AMM(0) model, the current AMM(k) model offers an asymmetric land rent pattern in equilibrium. Moreover, this paper shows that a rent-maximizing government either regulates the vendor to locate at the central business district (CBD) (when income is high) or does not enact any regulation (when income is low).     

二元经济结构视角下民生性财政支出与消费关系研究

习近平总书记指出目前中国正处于新发展阶段,我们要加快构建新发展格局,扩大内需,刺激消费。在此背景下,论文依托中国2013-2019年31个省相关的统计数据,利用个体固定效应模型分析民生性财政支出各组成部分对城乡居民消费水平的共性和差异化影响。研究表明,环境保护和住房保障支出对于城乡居民消费水平都没有显著的作用,而教育支出、社会保障和就业这两项支出对城镇居民消费水平的作用较为显著,医疗卫生支出对农村居民来说是正向的。     

中国居民收入差异和消费水平的关系研究

本文是在西方经济学消费理论的框架内,着重分析和研究了一个经济体中居民收入差异和该经济体消费水平的相关性。本文与其他相关研究虽然在结论上一致,但研究方法不同:在此之前的研究都是借用凯恩斯的"边际消费倾向递减"规律来定性说明居民收入差异和消费水平之间存在负相关关系,而本文则建立了一个同时含有收入差异和消费水平的消费模型,并通过对该模型的数学分析来论证二者之间的负相关性。     

城镇居民收入水平对零售业与批发业影响的实证研究——基于协整和向量自回归模型

文章选取1995年-2008年我国城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入和零售业销售总额、批发业销售总额的时间序列数据,通过基于VAR模型的协整分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解的有机结合进行研究,发现上述序列间存在长期均衡。对标准化协整方程和误差校正模型的分析表明,我国城镇居民收入水平和零售业销售总额、批发业销售总额之间形成了长期的、稳定的关系,且城镇居民收入水平是零售业销售总额、批发业销售总额的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应分析和方差分解均显示,城镇居民收入水平在过去十四年内对零售业、批发业产生了持续性的影响。     

山西省城镇居民消费和支出的实例分析预测

收集相关数据,通过Eviews软件建立一个山西省城镇居民人均消费支出和可支配收入的模型,采取时间序列分解法对模型进行分析和运用趋势外推法进行预测。     

一种新的旧城住宅更新模式探索——以南京市门西地区谢公祠1号为例

本文针对旧城住宅更新规划中忽略社会公平、漠视公众参与的现状,试图探索一种新的旧城住宅更新的模式——SR(self-renewal)模式,即自我更新模式,实现旧城住宅自下而上的改造,即由居民自己来改造自己的房屋,真正满足居民需求,实现社会公平,使改造后的住宅既保持传统风貌,又使居民的生活质量得到提高,实现现代化城市传统居住空间的复兴。     

北京市居民收入差距发展规律与结构特征的实证研究

本文选取1985—2007年的时间序列数据,对23年间北京市居民的收入差距演变规律进行分析,侧重于城镇居民收入差距、农村居民收入差距、以及城乡居民收入差距三个层次,并在对时间序列数据分析基础上,对收入差距的发展趋势进行判断。研究认为,北京市居民收入差距变化大致经历了三个阶段,即差距较小—差距扩大—差距稳中有降;居民收入差距一直存在,但以1993年为节点,之后出现大幅度上升态势;2003—2007年,居民收入差距整体呈现稳中有降的趋势,但降幅不大。对收入差距内部结构的分析显示,23年间,城镇居民收入差距水平小于农村居民收入差距。     

Urban Renewal in Istanbul: Reconfigured Spaces,Robotic Lives

The article discusses Turkey's property‐led residential redevelopment model. This entails the demolition of an existing settlement, replacing it with blocks of apartments (usually constructed on the exact same site and at a higher density), some of which are then made available to displaced residents for purchase via mortgage loans with long maturities. While the authorities promote this model of urban renewal as an innovative public housing policy, I argue that, far from being an exception to market‐rate housing, the model is in fact a market‐disciplinary tool. It seeks to incorporate into the formal market not just spontaneously developed and only partially regulated spaces, but also the conduct of residents living in these informal neighborhoods. The article contributes to the immense literature on urban renewal and organized struggles around the right to housing by showing that urban renewal is not simply about dispossession and displacement. In the Turkish case, urban renewal does not necessarily seek to displace poor residents (even though it often ends up doing so), rather to incorporate them into a nascent mortgage origination market. The second half of the article introduces and elaborates on a case study in Istanbul.     

农村居民消费行为分析——以吉林省为例

促进农村居民消费增长是缓解我国目前国民经济内外失衡的关键,也是提高农村居民福利的重要手段。以吉林省农村居民为例,农村居民消费呈现出许多与城镇居民不同的行为模式,比如农村居民的消费行为具有一定的模仿性、农村居民消费行为还呈现出一定的非理性、农村居民的消费具有一定的预防性储蓄特点。     

兰州市大气污染支付意愿影响因素分析

兰州市是我国大气污染比较严重的城市。利用国际上较为成熟的意愿调查价值评估法,对兰州市城区居民的大气环境支付意愿进行了评估,得出居民对空气质量达到二级标准的平均支付意愿是140.97元/户/年,进一步通过单因素方差分析证明只有收入水平是影响居民支付意愿的显著因素;利用虚拟变量回归模型估计了不同收入群体的平均最大支付意愿差异。     

货币政策和居民收入对房价影响的实证分析

近年来,房地产价格持续快速增长,影响房价的因素有很多,文章以辽宁省为例,建立贷款利率、货币供应量、城镇居民可支配收入和房屋销售价格的VAR模型,进行实证研究。利用EVIEWS7.0软件对模型进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,得出贷款利率、货币供应量和居民可支配收入均对房价产生正向影响,并且居民可支配收入的贡献度最强,五年以上贷款利率贡献度最弱。     

条件固定效应回归的活动目的地选择模型——一个案例研究

本文以城市居民出行目的地选择为研究对象,建立条件固定效应回归（C—Logit）目的地选择模型。结合我国某城市交通小区城市居民日出行数据对模型进行标定求解,并描述目的地选择预测流程,解释了影响居民出行目的地选择的诸多因素。对预测结果进行分析,得到较高的目的地选择预测精度,为从非集计层面研究城市居民出行目的地选择提供了新的思路。     

Tax competition,uniform assessment,and the benefit principle

In previous discussions it has been argued that tax competition between local governments results in a tax burden on business that is less than the cost of public services for business and in suboptimal levels of public expenditures for residents. However, this conclusion has never been substantiated by a full theoretical treatment. Here a theoretical model of tax competition is developed between metropolitan areas, with labor perfectly immobile and two local public goods, one for residents and one for business. For “plausible” parameter values, numerical solutions of the optimality conditions are computed by means of a nonlinear programming algorithm.     

1994年以来我国城乡居民消费水平差异分析

二元经济结构一直都是我国经济的一个重要特征,消费结构也呈现二元特点。城乡居民消费差距已成为影响我国宏观经济正常运行的重要因素。若不妥善处理,将会成为制约我国经济发展的瓶颈因素。通过分析1994年以来我国城乡居民之间的消费水平差异性,就如何缩小城乡居民消费水平差异,提高城乡居民消费质量的对策进行一些探讨。     

中国农村金融集聚对农民消费影响的空间效应研究

研究目标:从空间维度考察农村金融集聚对农民消费的影响。研究方法:利用2009～2018年30个省份和四大区域的面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型,估计金融集聚的空间效应,即特定地区农民消费如何关联于本地区和邻近地区的金融集聚。研究发现:在全国省级层面上,农民消费不仅受本省农村金融集聚的显著影响,同时还受到邻近省份空间溢出的显著影响。分区域检验显示,一方面,东部和东北部地区农民消费受到域内金融集聚的影响显著,而中、西部地区则不显著。这一区域差异与农民收入对农民消费的影响具有一致性,但农民收入影响更大。另一方面,中部、西部和东北地区的农民消费受邻近区域金融集聚溢出效应的影响显著,但东部地区则不显著。研究表明,一是农村金融发展对农民消费具有重要影响,二是农民收入过低会弱化金融发展对消费促进效应,增加农民收入是提升消费的根本;三是加强落后地区与发达地区金融合作有利于实现共赢。研究创新:将空间效应引入农村金融集聚对农民消费影响的研究,探究了该影响的空间特征及关联性。研究价值:对农村金融集聚的消费促进效应做出了更全面的评价,为发挥农村金融促进农民消费的政策制定和实施提供抓手。