Trends in experimental high-energy physics

Data from a scan of papers in Physical Review Letters and Physical Review are used to demonstrate that American high-energy physicists show a pattern of accelerator and instrumentation usage characteristics of that expected from the logistic-substitution model of Marchetti and of Fischer and Pry.     

Policy issues raised by direct broadcast satellites

Direct Broadcast Satellites, which transmit television programs directly to the viewer's home, present several policy issues that will have to be resolved during the next few years. Some of these issues transcend DBS, hence they must be resolved in a larger framework. Those that exist essentially within the framework of DBS include issues at the program producer's end, issues at the viewer's end, and technology issues. These latter are particularly important because inappropriate or unwise policy choices made now may nullify the benefits promised by improved technology.     

Using dead reckoning in economic projections

Economics is an inexact science, measurement of basic data is at best approximate, and most interesting relationships change relatively rapidly in developing countries. Key variables determining economic prospects are often impossible to include into models. Models and their mathematical algorithms however are deceptively precise, which often complicates the process of constructing and using economic projection models in developing countries.This paper will examine those macro models intended for operational policy purposes and how they are used. These models try to be analytically good and have sufficient plausibility to influence policy. Thus, a great deal of judgment is required in constructing, using, and interpreting projection models in developing countries: the “dead reckoning” element.     

Reason's shadow: Notes on the psychodynamics of obstruction

The remarks that follow are made with regard to the behavior of leaders whose self-image is threatened by a variety of conditions comprising the world problematique. Of all those conditions, surely those associated with violence and warfare are the most threatening. I would speculate, therefore, that what I've written here is especially pertinent for deliberations on how to encourage peace and disarmament.While these remarks are focused on the behavior of leaders—especially those in government—they can hold, too, for those in the public who identify with those leaders…itself another psychodynamic process. Of course, the public's contexts differ so the degree of threat and response will differ, too. This is a matter for further attention.Moreover, self-images are usually rich in content and while some aspects are threatened, others may not be or, indeed, may be attracted by new rational ideas. The resultant struggle within the psyche complicates the overt expression of these unconscious conflicts.But these dynamics mirror those comprising the problematique, especially its expression around issues of war and peace. Therefore, psychodynamic matters deserve as much attention and utilization as we now give to conventional, indeed, often ritual means, masquerading as rationality, for dealing with violence and armaments.     

Who's talking about the future?: An analysis of the U.S. Presidents

What are people actually saying when they are talking and writing about the future? The paper rests on two premises; that the future is essentially a construct of human thought, and that one method of knowing the future is to carefully examine the language used when “the future” is being talked about. The 13 inaugural addresses of the U.S. presidents since 1933 are systematically examined for evidences of their author's future orientation. The paper provides both factual data about the future consciousness of our presidents over the past 50 years, and also demonstrates the use of linguistic analysis for forecasting the future.