Exploring the expectations of transport professionals concerning the future automobility system: Visions,challenges, and transitions

A mixture of potentially significant changes in technology, commercial structures, and social practices is currently entering the automobility system. These changes have the potential to combine together and lead to a substantial shift in the manner in which society fuels, owns, and makes use of its cars. This paper reports a research project that made use of focus groups to examine the narratives of British transport professionals concerning forthcoming developments in the automobility system. Specific attention was given to what the expectations for future change in automobility are, if these changes will likely lead to a transition toward a more sustainable system and the manner in which a transition of this nature could be facilitated. The oral testimony offered during the focus groups has been assessed qualitatively using thematic analysis. The results suggest that there is a commonly held view that the automobility system is entering a stage of flux, which may lead to considerable changes in system configuration. However, the attainment of a sustainable transition for the system will likely be inhibited by a series of institutional, societal, and physical barriers, which may restrict system developments.     

The replication and reduction of automobility: Findings from Aotearoa New Zealand

In this paper, we examine the factors that contribute to the replication or reduction of automobility amongst young adults. Semi-structured interviews conducted in Aotearoa New Zealand, with 51 drivers and non-drivers, aged 18–35 years old, form the empirical material. The findings build upon previous research and extend understandings of how seven explanatory factors; perceptual, value and preference, social, built environment, economic, legal/policy and technological, work both to continue the current automobility paradigm, and to challenge it by adopting alternative mobilities. We use the Energy Cultures Framework as an analytical tool to explore the ways through which materialites, norms, practices, and external context can replicate or reduce participation in the hegemonic mobility paradigm. This approach offers useful insights into the interactions between what the research participants think, have and do, and how this is resulting in a reduction in automobility norms amongst some younger people. It also identifies and highlights potential opportunities to leverage upon current change trends to assist a systemic transition away from automobility towards a culture of multi-mobilities.     

Do buses help meet tourism objectives? The contribution and potential of scheduled buses in rural destination areas

A review of tourism policy documents reveals three key objectives: environmental, social and economic sustainability. This paper examines the role of scheduled buses in meeting these objectives, using data from a large survey of bus passengers in rural tourist destinations. It finds that buses achieve modest modal shift from cars, allow access to the countryside for people without cars and generate spending in local economies. It suggests how these functions could be improved by market-segmentation, better publicity and service delivery and questions why many such services struggle for funding each year.     

Travelling to work: will people move out of their cars

This paper examines employee's perceptions of their modal choice during the journey to work, and addresses what factors influence modal choice, and whether people can be moved out of their cars to other more sustainable forms of transport. The results of surveys of the commuting habits of employees at two UK companies are presented and compared with other relevant studies. Ninety-seven and 88% of staff at the respective companies travel to work by car. While only 2 and 7% of respondents cycled to work, real potential for cycling was identified, given improvements in the cycling infrastructure. Similarly, while only 0 and 3% currently use public transport for the journey to work, improved services could see a significant modal shift. Overall, there seemed to be genuine willingness to move out of the car for the journey to work, with one of the main barriers being a perception that the alternatives are not viable. Additionally, it appears many people live too far from the workplace to cycle or use public transport.     

Decreasing popularity of the car? Changes in driving licence and access to a car among young adults over a 25-year period in Norway

The general impression that car-use has reached a peak or the orientation to have a car has stagnated in several Western countries has been associated with young people being less interested in obtaining a driving licence and getting a car. Examination of public statistics and of data from Norwegian National Travel Surveys indicates that the percentage of young people acquiring a driving licence fell during the 1990s and has been stagnating since the start of the year 2000. Over a 25-year period, we find that young people living outside large cities have a car(s) in the household; they are in paid work and are married/cohabiting. They have a driving licence to a much greater degree than those who live in cities and have good access to public transport; they are students and not married/cohabiting. In the same 25-year period we have seen a higher percentage of young people living in the larger cities, spending longer on education and delaying establishing a family. Our cohort analyses indicate that young cohorts/generations defer from obtaining a driving licence. At age 30 years the proportion of licence holders has been around 90%, but analysis of young cohorts from 2001 to 2009 shows that this figure is declining.     

For the young and old alike – An analysis of the determinants of seniors’ satisfaction with the true door-to-door DRT system EcoBus in rural Germany

Mobility and transportation service requirements change with growing age. Also in a car-based society like Germany many seniors need to give up driving the car and are dependent on relatives or public transport. Especially in rural areas, the accessibility of public transport is often limited. Demand responsive transportation has occasionally been proposed by researchers as a viable alternative to stop-, route- and time-based public transportation to address such problems. This case study analyses passenger data from the true DRT system EcoBus to identify distinct drivers of old passengers’ satisfaction compared to other passengers. Contrary to existing literature, older people stated to be even more satisfied with the service then younger travellers did. Moreover, older travellers tend to travel alone, but showed slightly higher satisfaction when travelling in groups. The results suggest that older people might be more open-minded and positive regarding flexible public transport schemes than expected.     

Bus quality partnerships,modal shift and traffic decongestion

A more sustainable transport system requires effective alternatives to private cars. Despite more than 40 years of declining use, buses are still the main form of local public transport outside central London. Government policy focuses upon Bus Quality Partnerships—agreements between highway authorities and bus operators to give bus priority access and invest in better quality buses—to reverse this decline and also attract car drivers to change modes and ease urban traffic congestion.This paper assesses the potential for Quality Partnerships to provide a more attractive bus service with the ability to achieve modal shift using a Greater Manchester case study. Preliminary results are presented from a comparative study of two Quality Bus Corridors (QBCs), one arterial route into Manchester’s Central Business District and one transverse from Leigh to Bolton. The research uses bus user interview surveys and in-depth interviews, which focus upon non-bus users.Results of this research show that Bus Quality Partnerships when introduced as a stand-alone policy struggle to achieve significant modal shift and traffic decongestion. Most bus passengers and car users remain unaware of Bus Quality Partnerships.     

Millennials,built form,and travel insights from a nationwide typology of U.S. neighborhoods

We examine the relationship between the built environment and the travel of Millennials in the United States. We develop a neighborhood typology to characterize the built environment and transportation networks in almost every U.S. census tract, allowing us to identify possible synergistic and/or threshold effects on travel. We measure travel behavior in two ways: (1) using a multi-faceted traveler typology created using latent class analysis, and (2) by measuring the vehicle miles of travel among people in each of these traveler types. This dual approach allows us to distinguish between the built environment changes needed to encourage travel by modes other than driving, and those needed to reduce vehicle miles traveled among drivers. Using a multinomial logistic regression, we find that travel patterns are relatively stable along much of the urban-rural continuum, everything else equal. Driving was substantially lower only in “Old Urban” neighborhoods, where densities, job access, and transit service are dramatically higher than in all other neighborhood types. This finding implies that dramatic changes in the built environment—doubling or even tripling development density or transit service—may do little to get young people out of their cars when initial densities or transit services are low, as they are in most of the U.S. Conversely, reducing vehicle miles traveled among drivers appears to require more modest built form changes, a finding that offers some room for optimism among those concerned with auto dependence.     

Disentangling the behavioural side of the first and last mile problem: the role of modality style and the built environment

The first and last mile (FLM) problem, namely the poor connection between trip origins or destination and public transport stations, is a significant obstacle to sustainable transportation as it is likely to encourage the use of cars for FLM travel, if not for the entire trip. This study examines the role of modality style and built environment in FLM mode choice behaviour, in order to identify the key features that might invoke a travel mode shift from cars to more sustainable travel options for both mandatory and discretionary trips. More specifically, this study draws on disaggregate data from the South East Queensland household travel survey and presents a latent class choice model to unravel modality style groups. Results reveal two distinct individual-level modality style groups: (1) driving and walking oriented; (2) multimodal travellers. Individuals in the second modality style group were found to be relatively inelastic to FLM travel time for mandatory trips, while individuals in the first group were largely unaffected by built environment characteristics and highly habitual in their mode choice behaviour for both mandatory and discretionary trips. Home residence environments with high road intersection density and public transport accessibility, and home residence environments with diverse land use mix, respectively encourage individuals within the second modality style to walk for mandatory trips, and discretionary trips. To this end, when place-based policies seek to change certain built environment features, individuals in the second modality style are more likely to shift their preference from cars to more sustainable modes. Finally, our findings have practical planning implications in targeting mode shift through highlighting the importance of considering the intersection of individual modality style in a given locale and mode choice behaviour. More specifically, our findings advocate for place-based policies that seek to target particular locales with the certain modality style deemed to be more predisposed to adopting a mode shift.     

Give public transit a chance: A comparative analysis of competitive travel time in public transit modal share

Extensive research has found that people are more likely to choose the transport alternative which offers shorter travel time. But few studies approached the role of travel time across different transport alternatives and cities. This research assesses the influence of competitive travel time between car and public transit in public transit modal share for commute trips. São Paulo, New York, and Tokyo were selected to perform the analysis. A Fractional Logistic Regression in the binary form was drawn, and a competitive travel time index was calculated based on the Car/Public transit travel time ratio weighted by the number of the employed population at the origin and jobs at destinations in the absence of an Origin-Destination matrix. Findings suggest that, though car ownership was identified as the major factor, Car/Public transit travel time ratio is positively associated with the increase of public transit modal share. Furthermore, the Car/Public transit travel time ratio effect in public transit modal share consistently increases as people get increased access to cars.     

The spatial characteristics and influencing factors of modal accessibility gaps: A case study for Guangzhou,China

This paper presents an analysis of the spatial characteristic of the modal accessibility gap (MAG) in Guangzhou based on travel times for public transport and cars to public centers calculated by the Travel O-D point Intelligent Query System (TIQS). Four spatial regression models are used to investigate the effect on the MAG of six factors of the built environment (distance to city public centers, residential density, landuse mix, bus stop density, metro station density and road network density). The results show that travel time for a given origin to destination (OD) trip is likely to be larger by public transport than by car, especially for a trip of longer travel time. The MAG values of all the communities are larger than 0, indicating that when compared with public transport, travelling by car takes less travel time for individuals. Residential density, land-use mix, bus stop density and metro rail station density have significant negative direct impacts and indirect impacts (spatial spillover effects) on MAG, which indicates that appropriate increase in community residential density, providing diversified service facilities within a community, and improving public transport supply are beneficial to promote modal shift. Specifically, the role of metro rail is greater than that of buses. However, the road network density has significant direct positive impacts on MAG, and its spillover effect is also significantly positive, which indicates that building more roads is not an effective way to narrow the accessibility gap between public transport and cars but may facilitate more car travel instead.     

Optimisation models for the urban parking pricing problem

Parking pricing strategies are important tools for rebalancing the modal split between private car and transit systems in urban areas. Indeed, high congestion levels are mainly due to users' preference for the private car system. In order to obtain a more balanced modal split it is possible, together with an improvement in transit system quality, to set fees on the use of private cars through road pricing and/or parking pricing strategies. Parking pricing strategies are simpler, since they can be managed without adopting advanced technologies. In this paper some parking pricing strategies are proposed and some optimisation models are formalised.     

Choice behavior of tourism destination and travel mode: A case study of local residents in Hangzhou,China

The social and economic growth as result of promoting the rapid development of tourism in China has brought tremendous pressure on the urban transportation systems. Research of travel behavior concerning the characteristics of tourists has provided effective information for transportation planning. Due to different city plans, public transportation system design, car parking design and management, etc., the local situation in developed countries differs from the counterpart in China. However, little research has studied the factors influencing the choice of travel destinations in tourism. The research aims to study the tourism destination and mode choice behavior of tourists and provides suggestions to improve tourism transportation service system. An online questionnaire survey is used to collect data including the travel characteristics and personal attributes of local tourists in different holidays in Hangzhou, China. A multinomial logit model is constructed with the trip destination set as the dependent variable. Results show that age, residential type, car ownership, companion type and holiday length have a significant impact on destination choice. To determine what influences modal choice for such trips, a second logit model is established with travel mode set as the dependent variable with the explanatory variables of age, gender, companion type, car ownership, holiday length and travel destination found to be significant. The results demonstrated that people aged 26 to 44 prefer suburban areas, and they are the main group driving to their travel destination. Public transport use frequency decreases when the destination is located outside of the main tourist area. Finally, suggestions have been proposed to mitigate the congestion and parking problem based on model analysis from the perspective of the bus line setting, transfer improvements, and the policy to limit cars, respectively.     

Modeling commuter modal shift from car trips to cycling: Scenario construction and outcomes for Stockholm,Sweden

This article presents the construction and outcomes of scenarios modeling commuter modal shift from car trips to cycling in the metropolitan region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden. Building and improving upon previous studies in terms of both methodological approach and degree of spatial resolution of the modeling output, we examine scenarios where car commuters able to reach their workplace within 30 and 50 minutes of cycling shift commuting mode. Overall, car–bicycle modal shift figures were 31.6% and 48.7%, respectively. However, there were considerable geographical differences. While a substantial number of new bicycle commuters appeared in all five macro-level subdivisions of the study area, relative modal shift was by far the highest among car commuters living in the Inner City and its immediate surroundings.     

The dynamics of modal shifts in (sub)urban commuting: An empirical analysis based on practice theories

A modal shift away from the private car onto low-carbon transport modes is an essential part of decarbonising the transport sector. The dynamics of modal shifts are, however, not yet well understood. In particular the interrelations between structural and individual dynamics require further investigation. Furthermore, a better understanding is needed of how new transport modes become integrated into existing mobility practices. In this article, we address these questions in a qualitative study of modal shifts in (sub)urban commuting in three major Swiss cities. We analysed the interview data by means of a qualitative content analysis informed by practice theories. We found that modal shifts can arise i) from dynamics related to the conditions of use of different transport modes, ii) the coordination of everyday mobility with other people, iii) the coordination of resources between different daily practices, and iv) from dynamics related to the intrinsic motivation of everyday mobility. We found that these different dynamics are intertwined and that to understand how modal shifts arise, they must be analysed conjointly, rather than in isolation. And we identified three patterns in how modal shifts play out, and which describe different ways in which the new transport mode becomes integrated into everyday mobility practices. The first pattern describes modal shifts which require no adaptation of existing commuting practices. The second pattern describes modal shifts after which a new everyday mobility routine must be built. And the third pattern describes modal shifts that coincide with a lifestyle change. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for decarbonising everyday mobility.     

Families and transportation: Moving towards multimodality and altermobility?

This article explores the transport modal practices of parents with young children in everyday urban life. It is based on a qualitative multi-site approach that takes into account the geographic location, urban form and socio-economic characteristics of four Vancouver (British Columbia) neighborhoods. Our analysis of semi-structured interviews with parents reveals that modal practices were contextually contingent along a spectrum of auto-dependency, multimodality and altermobility. The results expose the contradictions, inequities and social ambiguities of parental modal practices and raise questions about how they might represent possible instances of a transition away from auto-dependency and towards sustainable transportation.     

Exploring the effectiveness of bus rapid transit a prototype agent-based model of commuting behavior

The introduction of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), typically involving the use of exclusive bus lanes and related bus priority measures, is increasingly advocated as a flexible and cost-effective way of improving the attractiveness of public transit in congested urban areas by reducing travel times and variability. These schemes typically involve the reallocation of road space for exclusive use by buses, presenting commuters with potentially competing incentives: buses on BRT routes can run faster and more efficiently than buses running in general traffic, potentially attracting commuters to public transit and reducing congestion through modal shift from cars. However, a secondary impact may also exist; remaining car users may be presented with less congested road space, improving their journey times and simultaneously acting as an incentive for some bus-users to revert to the car. To investigate the potential for these primary and secondary impacts, we develop a prototype agent-based model to investigate the nature of these interactions and how they play out into system-wide patterns of modal share and travel times. The model allows us to test the effects of multiple assumptions about the behaviors of individual agents as they respond to different incentives introduced by BRT policy changes, such as the implementation of exclusive bus lanes, increased bus frequency, pre-boarding ticket machines and express stops, separately and together. We find that, under our assumptions, these policies can result in significant improvements in terms of individual journey times, modal shift, and length of rush hour. We see that the addition of an exclusive bus lane results in significant improvements for both car users and bus riders. Informed with appropriate empirical data relating to the behavior of individual agents, the geography and the specific policy interventions, the model has the potential to aid policymakers in examining the effectiveness of different BRT schemes, applied to broader environments.     

Electric and hybrid car use in a free-floating carsharing system

A free-floating carsharing system is a flexible way to provide cars to members in a limited area. This paper discusses the user behavior and choice between electric and hybrid cars in a free-floating system. We use Auto-mobile's transactional and Global Positioning System (GPS) datasets to analyze car use. We develop a binomial logit model to find the probability of choosing an electric car when there is a choice. The analysis reveals that travel distance has a major influence on this probability: electric vehicles are less popular for distances of more than 24 km. Cold temperatures and being a female also decrease the probability, while higher energy level increases odds. The spatial analysis shows a difference in behavior between both car technologies. Trips made by electric cars are less dispersed spatially than those made by hybrid cars.     

Mobility and labour market exclusion in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region

This article analyses the relationship between daily mobility and labour market exclusion. In many areas of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region, the predominant car-based mobility model and the secondary role of public transport discriminate against non-car users when it comes to job opportunities. This territory’s capacity to generate labour market inclusion is analysed based on multi-functionality and the level of public transport services which, in turn, serve as a basis for three territorial classifications: non-excluding, semi-excluding and excluding.     

Helping drivers out of their cars Integrating transport policy and social psychology for sustainable change

Which motorists are ready to reduce their car use and how should they be helped to change? Results are reported from a postal questionnaire survey study of English car drivers (N=791). One third (33%) of car drivers indicated they would like to reduce their car use ‘over the next 12 months’, but only 7% thought they were likely to. One third (34%) of car drivers would like to use public transport (PT) more, but only 5% thought they were likely to. While over one third anticipated changes in their transport mode usage, and 1 in 5 (19%) would like to both decrease car use and increase PT use, only 3% thought this combination likely. Effectiveness ratings of pull and push policy measures showed motorists would rather be pulled than pushed from their cars; that the old, the poor and urban dwellers would be more susceptible to push measures; and that those residing out-of-town, driving medium and large cars, driving high annual mileage and required to drive as part of their work are less likely to be persuaded to reduce their car use by either type of measure. Other social psychological research suggests that sustainable changes by individuals that can be integrated into individual patterns of life will be more readily achieved by facilitation and support than by coercion.