The motorcycle Kuznets curve

The evolution of motorcycle ownership is a crucial issue for road safety, as motorcyclists are highly vulnerable road users. Analyzing a panel of 153 countries for the period 1963–2010, we document a motorcycle Kuznets curve which sees motorcycle dependence increase and then decrease as economies develop. Upswings in motorcycle ownership are particularly pronounced in densely populated countries. We also present macro-level evidence on the additional road fatalities associated with motorcycles. Our results indicate that many low-income countries face the prospect of an increasing number of motorcycle-related deaths over coming years unless adequate safety initiatives are implemented.     

Exploring the relationship between truck load capacity and traffic accidents in the European Union

Applying econometric techniques to EU28 panel data and controlling for explanatory variables such as road types, we find that increased truck load capacity does not necessarily aggravate road traffic safety. Specifically, heavy trucks do not seem to be linked with greater numbers of traffic fatalities/accidents, medium trucks appear to be the worst performers in terms of fatalities, and light trucks seem to be the worst for accidents. In summary, our results clarify the complex relationship between truck load capacity and road safety, pointing to the existence of a negative correlation for accidents per capita and an inverse U-shaped curve for fatalities per capita.     

The motorcycle to passenger car ownership ratio and economic growth: A cross-country analysis

Cross-country statistics have revealed steady growth in the number of motorcycles in many less advanced economic countries (LAEC) with emerging economies due to increased urbanisation and personal wealth. In contrast, an opposite trend is occurring in advanced economic countries (AEC), with cars replacing motorcycles as income grows. Motor vehicle crashes and injuries are an inevitable consequence of a high motorcycle population. This study focused on understanding how economic growth affects the motorcycle to passenger car (MPC) ownership ratio and what factors underlie this relationship. The data used in this analysis contained a sample of 80 countries at various levels of economic developmental growth over the 48-year period between 1963 and 2010. The results pointed to an inverted U-shaped relationship between the MPC ownership ratio and the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Generally, the MPC ownership ratio increased with income at a lower level and decreased with income at a higher level. The evidence indicated that urbanisation, the total road length per thousand population, and a proxy for purchasing power with regard to vehicle purchases were the underlying factors that contributed to this relationship.     

Spatio-temporal evolution of cities and regional economic development in Nepal: Does transport infrastructure matter?

The literature on the New Economic Geography (NEG) suggests that transport cost is a major driving factor for the emergence of core–periphery patterns within a country. However, very few studies have tested this theoretical explanation in the context of transport infrastructure networks in developing countries. This paper takes a closer look at Nepal and tests four expectations that are drawn from the NEG, which highlight different aspects of the formation of core–periphery dynamic as determined by infrastructure quality. The expectations are tested by relating spatial-temporal patterns of road development to the growth and distribution of cities and examining the transport infrastructure contribution to shaping the patterns of regional economic development. We used intercity travel time estimates, based on the design speed of roads, length of sections and pavement type (from 1961 onwards in 10-year segments) as an indicator for the quality of infrastructure (transportation cost). Next, we computed hubness and accessibility indices of cities, defined by means of a gravity model and as a function of transportation cost, to undertake a cross-city comparison. We applied GIS mapping, multiple regression and mediation analysis techniques to relate these transport and accessibility characteristics to spatio-temporal patterns in city size and GDP per capita. Our study broadly confirms the core expectation derived from the NEG that transport improvements facilitate urbanization and that higher urbanization leads to higher regional GDP per capita. Two independent effects were identified in qualification of these overall patterns – the impact of market potential on city primacy and the impact of highly localized, immobile resources on GDP.     

Decoupling transport from economic growth: Extending the debate to include environmental and social externalities

The concept of decoupling embraces both immaterialisation and dematerialisation, by referring to the general delinking of environmental harm from economic production. This paper extends the theoretical debate and methodology on decoupling in transport to cover environmental (e.g. carbon) and social (e.g. fatalities) issues as well as the economic dimensions (e.g. income growth and transport activities). The typology developed here details the concepts of absolute and relative decoupling in a strong and weak version. This typology is then applied to explore the potential and the reality of transport decoupling in 15 major countries over the period since 1990, when concerns over the global environment and social issues have become a central part of the sustainable development agenda, through the measurement of changes in all three of the elements of sustainable development (economic, environmental and social). Two key transport externalities, carbon dioxide emissions and traffic fatalities, are studied, as these represent examples of environmental and social costs associated with increased levels of mobility. These 15 key countries included both developed and developing countries, and they together account for the majority of the global economy, carbon emissions and a substantial proportion of transport fatalities. The results show that decarbonisation of the transport sector has proved more difficult to achieve in the 15 countries over the 22 years than the reduction in the levels of transport-related fatalities. Nevertheless, there is progress being made. Decoupling has taken place in both developed and developing countries, though the experiences vary in terms of timing (earlier vs more recent), consistency (stable vs variable), form (absolute vs relative) and magnitude (strong vs weak). Recoupling effects are limited. Transport has proved to be the most difficult sector to make more sustainable, as it is growing so fast and as it is necessary to support economies and lifestyles. Yet through combining measures of economic (e.g. income), environmental (e.g. carbon) and social (e.g. fatalities) wellbeing, it has been possible to identify positive trends in decoupling transport at the national level, as measured through relative decoupling. The much harder objective of an absolute decoupling is only just beginning to take place, but this must be seen as the primary objective in moving towards sustainability in the transport sector.     

Tourism and the Southeast Asian Crises of 1997 and 1998: A View from Singapore

Singapore has historically stood out as an economic anomaly among countries in the developing world.Its per capita income was higher than most industrialised countries, its government was relatively uncorrupt, and despite the economic difficulties experienced throughout Asia starting in 1997,it was still rated as one of the safest places in the world for investments. Starting in 1997 and extending through 1998, Singapore was hit by three major crises: the currency turmoil affecting its neighbours (especially Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia); the El Niño-driven forest fires on Borneo and Sumatra that filled Singapore’s air with brown smoke; and the political and social crises in Malaysia and Indonesia. These three crises brought international, intra-regional and domestic tourism in Southeast Asia to a near stand still. Singapore received some benefits from these problems as currency from neighbouring countries flew into Singapore in search of a safe haven, thereby supporting the Singapore dollar, and ethnic Chinese and others flew to Singapore to escape both the choking smoke from forest fires and the political unrest in Indonesia, and filled Singapore’s hotels. Singapore weathered the varied crises quite well, and ultimately Singapore may emerge in an even stronger position as the economic powerhouse of Southeast Asia.     

Analysis of bilateral air passenger flows: A non-parametric multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

Gravity models have long served as a framework for analyzing bilateral flows, trade and many other activities. To estimate a gravity model, (parametric) linear regression techniques have been commonly employed to develop the relationship between passenger flows and factors that can significantly influence these flows. This study explores the application of an alternative method, the non-parametric multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) technique, to identify the determinants for air passenger flows between pairs of countries. The data of 2006 and 2007 air passenger flows between pairs of countries in the APEC region were collected to develop the MARS models. Results indicate that distance between the countries, annual import value, national per capita income, unemployment rate and consumer price index of the origin country, as well as GDP, annual import value, and consumer price index of the destination country are significant determinants for bilateral air passenger flows.     

Inter-regional and inter-temporal analysis of travel behaviour for Asian metropolitan cities: Case studies of Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, and Nagoya

The unprecedented demand for travel experienced in Asia, in conjunction with the economic development of the1980s, has resulted in a number of detrimental effects on urban systems. Economic development has certainly intensified per capita income enhancing personal mobility. In Asia, private vehicle ownership and usage have continued to be recognised as an obligatory element of travel for many. Undoubtedly there is a direct relationship between vehicle ownership and public transport usage. Inter-regional and inter-temporal investigations of travel behaviour in Asian cities are therefore necessary to develop an understanding of the future transportation system including suitability and the role of public transport. Since travel data are scarce in Asian countries, inter-regional or inter-temporal travel behaviour investigations do not exist to date. Several travel demand models are developed using discrete choice modelling techniques and Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, and Nagoya as case studies. Estimation results of the mode choice models are successfully incorporated to compare travel behaviour trends in selected cities in Asia. The developed models are tested for spatial and temporal transferability.     

Air transport demand and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa: Direction of causality

Air transport may be a key tool to advance economic development. However, it is uncertain whether air transport boosts economic development, or vice versa. Both views have theoretical and empirical support. In some countries and regions, air transport is important for initiating development, for example by attracting foreign direct investment or granting access to lifelines. Elsewhere, economic development drives air transport demand. Establishing the direction of causality for regions/countries segmented by income level may inform pragmatic policy. This study analyzes the causal relationship between air transport demand and economic development for six sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1981–2018. Vector error correction and vector autoregression models are employed to identify long- and short-run causalities. The results reveal heterogeneous, context-specific causal relationships. In the long-run, for South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya, the direction of causality runs from economic development to air transport demand; for Ethiopia, causality runs in the opposite direction, with increased demand for air transport promoting economic development; and for Senegal and Angola, the relationship is too weak to infer causal directions. Possible explanations for this heterogeneity include differences in per capita income, low-cost carriers' share of national aviation markets, the presence of large home-based airlines, and comparative geographical advantage as a natural hub.     

Air cargo as an economic development engine: A note on opportunities and constraints

This note examines the role that air cargo plays in economic development and factors that condition its impact. After presenting basic empirical relationships between air cargo and both trade and gross domestic product per capita, we discuss three factors that can enhance air cargo's positive impact: air service liberalization, improving customs quality, and reducing corruption. We then model and assess the effects of these three factors on per capita net inward foreign investment and gross domestic product per capita in 63 countries around the world.     

Dynamic linkages between tourism transportation expenditures,carbon dioxide emission,energy consumption and growth factors: evidence from the transition economies

Tourism transport profoundly affects economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. This study is an attempt to examine the impact of international tourism transportation expenditures, energy demand, foreign direct investment inflows, trade openness and urban population on carbon dioxide emission and per capita income for the panel of 11 transition Economies, over the period of 1995–2013. The results show that per capita income escalates the carbon dioxide emission (CO₂), which deteriorates the natural environment. International tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures for travel items are associated with the intensifying CO₂ emission and per capita income in the region. The study confirmed the energy-led emissions, FDI-led emissions, FDI-led growth, income-led emissions, income-led energy demand, trade-led growth and trade-led energy demand. The causality results further substantiate the the tourism-led growth and FDI hypothesis in the region. Finally, the variance decomposition analysis confirmed the following results, that is, (i) per capita income is the contributor that least influences CO₂ emissions, (ii) urban population influences per capita income and (iii) international tourism transportation expenditures will influence CO₂ emissions and per capita income for the next 10-year period.     

Investigating the impacts of energy consumption,real GDP,tourism and trade on CO2 emissions by accounting for cross-sectional dependence: A panel study of OECD countries

The objective of this study is to analyse the long-run dynamic relationship of carbon dioxide emissions, real gross domestic product (GDP), the square of real GDP, energy consumption, trade and tourism under an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries. Since we find the presence of cross-sectional dependence within the panel time-series data, we apply second-generation unit root tests, cointegration test and causality test which can deal with cross-sectional dependence problems. The cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and the cross-sectionally augmented Im-Pesaran-Shin (CIPS) unit root tests indicate that the analysed variables become stationary at their first differences. The Lagrange multiplier bootstrap panel cointegration test shows the existence of a long-run relationship between the analysed variables. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation technique indicates that energy consumption and tourism contribute to the levels of gas emissions, while increases in trade lead to environmental improvements. In addition, the EKC hypothesis cannot be supported as the sign of coefficients on GDP and GDP² is negative and positive, respectively. Moreover, the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality tests exploit a variety of causal relationship between the analysed variables. The OECD countries are suggested to invest in improving energy efficiency, regulate necessary environmental protection policies for tourism sector in specific and promote trading activities through several types of encouragement act.     

Goods movement,road safety,and spatial inequity: Evaluating freight-related crashes in low-income or minority neighborhoods

The significant growth in freight traffic and relevant crashes has aroused increasing concerns about road safety threats in local communities. We use data from the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area and examine the spatial relationship between freight-related crashes and neighborhoods with low-income and minority populations. We find that both household income and percentage of minority population are significantly correlated with the density of both freight-related crashes and freight-related crashes causing severe injuries and fatalities. The results indicate that freight-related crashes are subject to a spatial inequity problem. The findings underscore the importance of incorporating freight-related safety improvement within these low-income and minority neighborhoods.     

Car ownership and urban development in Chinese cities: A panel data analysis

Growth in car ownership has significant impacts on the use of urban space and management of urban environments, which makes it a topic of increasing interest especially for developing countries such as China. The dynamics of and factors influencing ownership in Chinese cities need careful investigation. Using fixed effects models applied to annual panel data (1994–2012; 293 cities) this study aimed to achieve the following: 1) assess the relationships between car ownership and average annual income per capita, population, built-up area, road area per capita, urban population density, number of taxis and bus passenger volume; 2) examine the variation of these relationships across geographical regions (East, middle, and West China) and city sizes (cities with small, medium, large, and super-large populations). The results showed that car ownership was positively associated with average annual income per capita, built-up area, road area per capita, urban population density, and number of taxis at the national level. All associations, except with the number of taxis, varied significantly across geographical regions. Built-up area, road area per capita, and number of taxis had different associations with car ownership depending on city sizes. The findings improve the understanding of relationships between car ownership and urban environments vis-a-vis variations in income and infrastructure per capita, population density, and transportation alternatives. These results have important policy implications for managing cars and health problems related to cars in China.     

The sky is the limit? The determinants and constraints of European airports commercial revenues

This study investigates the determinants of commercial and retail airport revenues from real estate operations. Aviation revenues per passenger are mainly determined by the national income per capita in the area where the airport is located, the percentage of leisure travelers and the size of the airport. Main drivers of commercial revenues per passenger include the number of passengers passing through the airport, the ratio of commercial to total revenues, national income, the share of domestic and leisure travelers and the number of flights. These results are in line with previous findings of a negative influence of business travelers on commercial revenues per passenger. We also find that a large amount of retail space per passenger is generally associated with lower commercial revenues per square meter confirming decreasing marginal revenue effects. Real estate revenues per passenger are positively associated with national income per capita at airport location, share of intra-EU passengers and percent delayed flights.     

Testing the transport-induced environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: The role of air and railway transport

The airline and railway industry contribute immensely to economic development, however, its role in environmental pollution requires attention. Here, this study builds on the theoretical pedigree of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis to explore the contribution of the air and railway transportation sector and urbanization to the emission-growth argument. We utilized annual time-frequency data from 1995 to 2014 for a panel of top 10 air passenger carrier countries using robust panel estimators that control for cross-section dependence. The empirical analysis shows a positive significant relationship between emissions and economic growth, thus, economic growth is emission-embedded with limited green growth. The existence of the EKC phenomenon is affirmed for the investigated blocs — where economic growth is prioritized over environmental quality. Additional, while air transportation drives pollution, railway transportation and urbanization decline emission over the sampled period. The results underscore the need for clean and environmentally friendly energy sources for air sector operations.     

The income elasticity gap and its implications for economic growth and tourism development: the Balearic vs the Canary Islands

ABSTRACT

The Balearic and the Canary Islands are two well-known tourism-led economies. They both experienced a tourism boom during the same decades, and, hence, they developed a similar productive-mix. Nevertheless, there are strong economic differences between the two regions. While the Balearic Islands enjoy a high GDP per capita, the Canary Islands show a more modest performance. The results of a panel data regression confirm our hypothesis that they differ substantially in terms of income elasticity of tourism. It is two times higher in the Balearic Islands than in the Canaries, which indicates the first is perceived as a more luxurious destination. Furthermore, the results of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model show that the Canaries would converge in GDP per capita with the Balearic Islands if they attracted tourists with a similar profile as the latter.     

Regional dispersion of potential accessibility quotient at the intra-European and intranational level. Core-periphery pattern,discontinuity belts and distance decay tornado effect

The regional differences in the level of accessibility and GDP per capita in Europe are the subject of many scientific analyses and much applied research. Using the road network for the whole continent and the division of Europe into transport areas on the basis of NUTS 3, we have concentrated on the potential quotient as a research method. The quotient is a ratio of economic and population potential, and its level and spatial distribution differ based on the dimensions of accessibility: spatial scope (intra-European and intra-national) and impedance. Depending on the variants of the above-mentioned accessibility dimensions, we focus on analysis of the core-periphery pattern. Based on a comparison of the level of GDP per capita with the level of potential quotient, we define the discontinuity belts in the cross-border areas and in urban agglomerations, i.e. areas particularly sensitive to migratory movements or commuting to work. In turn, the analysis of regional differences in the level of the potential quotient for different travel durations and, as we call it in the paper, the value of the CATCH-time, leads us to show the so-called tornado effect which is associated with declining spatial polarisation as a result of the extension of trip distribution towards longer trips. The typology presented describing the relationship between GDP per capita and the level of potential quotient at different spatial scales and for different trip durations allows the identification of regions particularly exposed to migration or interregional commuting flows and is a good premise for defining inner peripheries.     

Achieving genuinely dynamic road user charging: issues with a GNSS-based approach

A variety of approaches to road user charging (RUC) for reducing congestion and raising revenue to maintain and improve transport infrastructure is in place in many countries; examples of such RUC include: an Electronic Fee Collection System in Singapore, Cordon Pricing in Oslo City in Norway, Zoned Based Pricing in London and Distance-Based Pricing (also called Pay-As-You-Drive) in Germany and Switzerland. With the development of satellite technologies, the introduction of dynamic pricing becomes possible, affording an opportunity for RUC to fully reflect the ‘Polluter Pays Principle’. This paper provides critical and comparative assessments of existing road user charging (RUC) systems with reference to technological limitations and public and political acceptability. The paper then goes on to demonstrate a system architecture for a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) based dynamic road user charging system capable of considering dynamic variables. Finally we consider the feasibility of the proposed system in relation to technology readiness and public acceptability. We then consider some potential wider benefits from the introduction of a comprehensive system that could be highlighted to justify the cost of development and implementation as well as to improve public and political acceptability. The paper ends with conclusions and future research directions.     

Economic contribution of essential air service flights on small and remote communities

The Essential Air Service Program (EAS) has attracted considerable criticism and has been a target for either modification or complete termination almost since its inception through the Airline Deregulation Act in 1978. Although its opponents emphasize the program's inefficiency, its supporters claim that the program is crucial to accessing small and remote communities, which helps them develop economically and socially. This paper demonstrates the economic contributions of EAS flights to small and remote communities. Using a two-stage least squares estimation, the major findings indicate that a 1% increase in air passenger traffic in EAS airports with a minimum annual air passenger traffic of 1000 likely leads to a 0.12% increase in per capita income of the community served by that airport. Our results also suggest that EAS communities that are able to sustain their subsidized flights experienced higher per capita income growth in the 1999–2011 period than did ex-EAS communities that lost their flights as a result of non-eligibility.