Route churn: an analysis of low-cost carrier route continuity in Europe

Discontinuity of air routes is a subject that has been analysed in various ways. For example, the complex network approach focuses on network robustness and resilience due to route interruptions during a relatively short period. Also seasonal interruptions of air routes are a well-documented phenomenon in the context of demand variability. However, only recently discussions emerge on the more permanent cessation of air routes, the route churn. Today, European low-cost carriers frequently apply route churn in their networks. To enable early route churn detection in these networks, a regression model is developed in which route characteristics explain the churning likelihood of individual routes. The results of the econometric analysis show that churn rates are higher during an economic downturn, within the Eastern European market, between the Eastern and the Mediterranean market and between primary airports. In addition, we find that distance and the number of seats offered have a significant negative effect on the churn likelihood. The results also show significant effects of market share, seasonality and route age on the chance of cessation. To conclude, the paper demonstrates substantial differences in churn behaviour amongst specific low-cost carriers.     

End of the free lunch? The responses of traditional European airlines to the low-cost carrier threat

The short-haul operations of traditional European airlines such as British Airways and Lufthansa have come under increasing pressure from the growth of low-cost carriers. This paper examines their competitive responses. These are found to include reductions in labour costs, greater use of regional aircraft and a run-down of secondary hubs. Minimum stay requirements on cheap fares have been axed in many markets, while changes to the on-board service and a move to direct-sell bring these airlines closer to the low-cost carrier product. The network strength is largely maintained, however, which appears a better strategy than setting up a low-cost subsidiary.     

Connectivity levels and the competitive position of Spanish airports and Iberia’s network rationalization strategy, 2001-2007

This paper examines the connectivity of the Spanish airport system between 2001 and 2007. Over the period, network carriers considerably strengthened the connectivity between Spanish airports and major European hubs. Although OneWorld is still the dominant alliance in Spain, SkyTeam and Star achieved a larger connectivity share through the growth of indirect services provided through their northern European hubs. In addition, the network rationalization strategy of Iberia and its decision to concentrate operations at Madrid-Barajas had important implications for the connectivity of other Spanish airports. Low-cost carriers have boosted direct connectivity from secondary Spanish airports.     

Triggering competition in the Spanish airline market: The role of airport capacity and low-cost carriers

We analyze the influence of increases in airport capacity and the entry of low-cost carriers on airline competition. We use parametric and non-parametric techniques to analyze a sample of Spanish routes. We find that capacity increases in large airports produce more competitive airline conduct only in routes departing from non-hub airports. Also, we find that the natural monopoly threshold decreases with time. Finally, low-cost carriers have a moderate but still significant effect on prices and increase alternatives even in low-density routes.     

An analysis of European low-cost airlines and their networks

The growth of low-cost carriers (LCCs) is currently focused on the Western European market, where they represent the most determining factor in the evolution of airline networks. In this area, they stand for 18% of the total air transport supply according to seats. Limited to short and medium haul flights, networks are not too concentrated (no hubs). They are North–South, and compete with—when they have not replaced—some charter routes. The use of air freedoms beyond the fourth is still limited, but exclusive routes are a frequent phenomenon linked to the option for secondary (urban or regional) airports and/or niches.Finally, low-cost carriers give fresh impetus to point-to-point routes by drawing new networks complementing those of full service network carriers (FSNCs). If no hubs as such can be found in these new networks, significant concentrations characterize the major bases.The geography of low-cost networks is to a large extent the geography of EU air transport liberalization.     

Between external forces and internal factors: The geography of domestic airline services in South Africa

This paper investigates the changes and current patterns of domestic passenger airline networks in South Africa, considering routes operated and volumes of seats supplied by carriers. This market was liberalised in 1991 and the new market-oriented policy was not challenged by the post-apartheid regime. Flag-carrier South African Airways (SAA) has lost its virtual monopoly, and thus significant volumes and market share, although its decrease is smaller if one considers its regional affiliates and subsidiary. Conversely, low-cost airlines have literally boomed, while British Airways has penetrated the market through a franchise agreement with Comair. Route networks by airline show various patterns. The low-cost carriers tend to concentrate on South Africa's Golden Triangle, while SAA regional affiliates mostly serve thin routes without competitors. Furthermore, the rise of low-cost airlines has led to the utilisation of a secondary airport in Johannesburg, the only African city with a multiple-airport system. Finally, our results are interpreted in light of South Africa's geography, intermodal options and social-political issues.     

The carrier-within-a-carrier strategy: An analysis of Jetstar

The carrier-within-a-carrier (CWC)—or “airline-within-an-airline” (AWA)—approach has become an integral part of many airlines' marketing strategies in the Asia–Pacific region where several full-service national airlines operate low-cost/low-fare subsidiary airlines. The CWC approach is a response to competition from low-cost carriers based on product differentiation, i.e., a ‘two brands’ business strategy aimed at defending market share. Most CWCs were established after 2001 as a response to deregulation and liberalization and generally adhere to the principals of low-cost/low-fare carriers. Typically, CWCs enter markets through new, point-to-point services and operate short-haul routes (one-to 2-h flying times) that might have been abandoned by full-service airlines (FSAs), whereas at other times they simply compete directly with FSAs on price. This paper analyses Jetstar, a subsidiary of Qantas, which has transitioned from a domestic CWC to an international medium- and long-haul carrier. In addition to its domestic Australian operations, Jetstar operates between Australia and the Asia–Pacific region and has established partnership arrangements operating within Asia, including Jetstar Asia (based in Singapore), Jetstar Vietnam and Jetstar Japan. Jetstar also has operations in New Zealand. The theoretical framework applied in this paper is based on the strategic windows concept, in which opportunities arise and a window opens, and Tregoe and Zimmerman's (1980) ‘driving forces’ model, in which nine attributes are listed and certain of these are exemplified by Qantas' strategy. The methodology adopts a case study approach that draws upon content analysis and ‘events in the making’ and features interviews with key respondents. The findings show that Jetstar disproved earlier criticism of the CWC strategy and further demonstrate that by careful planning, strategy and execution, Jetstar has been able to grow its capacity, maintain high load factors, increase revenue and (more importantly) increase profitability at a time when many airlines are consolidating or withdrawing services because of losses.     

The airfare pricing and seat allocation problem in full-service carriers and subsidiary low-cost carriers

This study investigates the competitive market situation in the air transport industry considering full-service carriers (FSC), subsidiary low-cost carriers (LCC) and rival LCCs on the flight-leg level while subsidiary LCCs are established by FSCs against rival LCCs to keep the market share and to make more profit. It is assumed that the demand of economy class for each airline follows a known distribution, and the mean value of that distribution is a function of its airfare and the airfare differences with other airlines. In addition, no-shows and cancellations are introduced to reflect a real situation. Based on this situation, a mathematical model is developed to derive efficient airfare pricing and seat allocation for each airline for maximizing the profit sum of both FSCs and subsidiary LCCs using a repeated game. A repeated game model integrated with a Tabu search algorithm and an EMSR based heuristic is suggested to deal with the proposed repeated game. A numerical example is provided to validate the model and solution procedure with hypothetical system parameter values under two kinds of market situations that show before and after the emergence of subsidiary LCCs.     

Airlines-within-airlines strategies and existence of low-cost carriers

This paper investigates hub carriers’ airlines-within-airlines (AinA) strategies, intended to establish low-cost divisions offering nonstop flights on rim routes. An initial hub-spoke network is optimal if passenger differentiation between one-stop and nonstop services and via-hub time cost are small. If differentiation is substantial, a mixed one-stop and nonstop (point-to-point) network under AinA is optimal when via-hub time cost is small (large). Low-cost rivals on rim routes weaken AinA adoption and enhance welfare from a monopoly mixed network. In a perfect-substitute case, hub carriers may have excessive incentive to adopt AinA from a welfare viewpoint, especially, when low-cost rivals exist.     

The impact of airport fees on fares for the leisure air travel market: The case of Spain

Panel data is used to determine the incidence of airport fees on fares in the Spanish leisure market airlines. We also study its structure through an empirical specification of a pricing and demand equation system. The results show the existence of market power, strategic behavior and density economics. We also demonstrate that airlines pass all the airport fees onto customers by increasing fares. Furthermore, we find that the behavior of airlines in routes with the presence of low cost carriers do not differ from other routes.     

The evolving low-cost business model: Network implications of fare bundling and connecting flights in Europe

In a context of limited organic growth, some low-cost airlines have considered business strategies that are changing two key principles of the low-cost airline business model: fare unbundling and point-to-point operations. Using a multivariate analysis we identify the influence of several route characteristics on the share that European pure low-cost and hybrid low-cost carriers have on the routes they operate. Results show that, from a network perspective, the distance between the archetypical low-cost carrier business model and the adapted low-cost carrier business model with a hybrid approach is widening. Differences are also clear between hybrids offering connecting services and hybrids offering fare bundling. The results are also important from an airport policy perspective, since secondary airports and legacy airports in transition could be able to reduce the gap between them and the main hub airports.     

An airline's management strategies in a competitive air transport market

Over the last decade, the demand for domestic and international flights in Korea has increased substantially. To meet the strong flight demands, several low cost carriers have begun to offer flight services. In addition, full service carriers have been motivated to establish their own subsidiary low cost carriers to maintain their market share against rival low cost carriers. This paper studies the management strategies of three kinds of airlines - full service carrier, its subsidiary low cost carrier and rival low cost carrier - based on game theory in the competitive air transport market. Each airline is assumed to act as a player and chooses strategies regarding airfare, flight frequency, and the number of operating aircrafts for specific routes while maximizing its own profits. Demand leakages between the airlines are considered in the flight demand function according to the selected strategies of all airlines. Through various game situations reflecting realistic features, this study provides managerial insights that can be applied in the competitive air transport market.     

Mapping causalities of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets

The introduction of low-cost air transport services to short-haul routes has significantly shaped the structure of this market segment. Recent research investigates and discusses the transferability of the low-cost carrier business model to long-haul routes and identifies respective challenges such as lower cost advantages over the competing full-service network business model. Our paper complements the existing research with a review of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets and the subsequent development of a causal loop diagram of the transatlantic air transport market using systems thinking. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of specific characteristics regarding airline operations in the transatlantic air transport market to investigate the market potential of long-haul low-cost carriers competing with full-service network carriers in this market. We implement these characteristics in a causal loop diagram which comprises the most important elements of and causalities within the long-haul air transport market that affect the development of these elements. These include the generation of transatlantic air transport demand, passenger choice, and airline ticket price and fleet development. The causal loop diagram serves as a framework for qualitative investigation of the market potential of long-haul low-cost services. The paper proves systems thinking to be a feasible approach to map causalities based on knowledge from scientific literature.     

Are low-cost carrier passengers less likely to complain about service quality?

Complaints made by airline passengers to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) are often used in academic research and in the media as a proxy for the quality of commercial air service in the United States. In this paper, we test whether passengers of network carriers are more likely to make a complaint to the DOT about service quality failures than passengers of low-cost carriers. Through a fixed-effects regression, we find that passengers of low-cost carriers like Southwest Airlines are less likely to complain about service quality than passengers of network carriers like United Airlines, given the same levels of service quality and controlling for yearly fixed effects. This behavior could be explained by price-based expectations of service quality, lack of information about how to complain to the DOT, or qualitative differences in front-line customer service between airlines.     

Characterisation of airline networks: A North American and European comparison

This paper contrasts the North American and European air transport markets using the extensive Official Airline Guide Databases. The pattern of network development in the two continental regions is examined using data for 1996–2008. The top ten carriers in both regions are analysed closely in terms of network structures and the basic geographical characteristics of these networks are highlighted. In addition, different measures of air transport activity such as seating capacity, and number of movements and of routes are compared. Visualisations of carrier networks are used to highlight the different network strategies operated by low cost and full service carriers. European carrier networks display many significant differences to North American carrier networks. European carriers generally organise their networks around one or two key nodes within the member state in which they are registered and generally do not operate interactive, continental-wide, multiple hub-and-spoke networks as do North American carriers. European and North American low-cost carriers operate much more interconnected networks than full services carriers. Southwest Airlines stands out as operating a particularly highly interconnected network.     

Low-cost carrier entry at small European airports: Low-cost carrier effects on network connectivity and self-transfer potential

Airport connectivity can improve the competitiveness of regions by attracting tourism and inward investment. Regions traditionally accessed international destinations via connecting flights to national gateway airports usually operated by full service network carriers (FSNC). However, the entry of low-cost carriers (LCC) in these markets has led to changes in incumbent FSNC service provision. We analyse how intra-European connectivity has changed at small airports between 2002 and 2012 and how LCC entry has affected the quality of day-return schedules in these markets. Results show that offline LCC connectivity is greater than that scheduled by FSNCs. Furthermore, LCC entry had a negative effect on the quality of the connectivity offered by FSNCs. Interestingly, we also found that day-return itineraries become more difficult for passengers in markets where the LCC is the sole operator. Regional policy-makers may need to more carefully consider the connectivity implications in the design of LCC start-up incentive schemes.     

Evolution trends of the network structure of Spring Airlines in China: A temporal and spatial analysis

Both the sustainable development of China's economy and the deregulation of the China air transport market have acted as a spur for the halting development of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in China. To analyze the development trends of LCCs' network in China, this paper took Spring Airlines, the only LCC in China as an example. First, the winter flight plans of Spring Airlines from 2005 to 2013 were collected. Secondly, the development trends of air transport network of Spring Airlines were explored with methods of mathematical statistics and social network analysis. Additionally, the development trends were analyzed from the levels of navigable cities, air routes and air transport networks. The results show that although Spring Airlines actively launched air routes between tourist cities with non-class I airports, its network has been transformed from a star structure into a complex one with multi-hubs. The development process of the Spring Airlines network can be separated into three stages. In addition, the problems and evolution trends of its network are discussed further.     

The geography of the Spanish airport system: spatial concentration and deconcentration patterns in seat capacity distribution, 2001-2008

This paper analyzes the geography of seat capacity at Spanish airports between 2001 and 2008. Concentration and deconcentration patterns for different markets have been identified. For this purpose, we use the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the Concentration Ratio (CR) and the Lorenz curve. From our analysis, we conclude that seat capacity follows a deconcentration pattern due to the growth of low-cost carriers at small- and medium-sized Spanish airports. This is in line with earlier studies for Europe as a whole. Intercontinental seat capacity still remains very much concentrated in Madrid and, to a lesser extent, in Barcelona. However, new strategies by long-haul airlines bypassing the primary European hubs foster the deconcentration of seat capacity in the Asian and North American markets. In the case of Spain, the recent liberalization of the EU-US market may become an important enabler of such network strategies, e.g., Delta has operated a route from Valencia to New York-JFK since 2009. In other intercontinental markets, capacity is more and more concentrated in Madrid. We highlight the restructuring of Iberia’s network as an important factor behind the increasing dominance of Madrid in intercontinental markets.     

Low-cost carriers versus full service carriers in ASEAN: The impact of liberalization policy on competition

This study analyses the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASAM) policy to be introduced by the end of 2015. We conduct a scenario study to estimate the impact of low-cost carrier (LCC) network expansion under liberalized air transport policies in the ASEAN region. Establishing joint ventures is a possible way for foreign carriers to expand the network in this region, even after starting ASAM. This is unique as joint ventures are not only subsidiaries of the full-service carriers, as is the case in the United States and Europe. We also apply a quantitative air transport market model to estimate the policy impact of the entry of new LCCs on routes from three ASEAN hub airports to Manila airport, which covers the impact on the whole network. The model produces several significant results, including that the entry of one LCC on one route may affect the fare, frequency, and profitability of related competitive routes for the entire network.     

Innovation: The winning formula to regain profitability in aviation?

Most airlines have overcome the immediate effects of the recent global aviation crisis partly because of economic upturn and partly because of massive restructuring. Legacy network carriers had to take on the challenge of low-cost carriers, and regain competitiveness in short- and mid-haul business through considerable cost cutting and more flexible pricing models and are now profitable. On the other hand, many airlines do not make a reasonable profit, and the majority of carriers do not earn their capital cost. Airlines claim that they are still squeezed between their neighbors in the aviation value chain that leverage local monopolies (such as airports) or oligopolies (such as aircraft equipment manufacturers). Many legacy carriers, however, have not properly prepared for an era of deregulated and changing markets. They have not yet taken appropriate steps to escape from there positions between the few successful premium carriers and low-cost carriers. This middle position has little differentiation potential, an unsatisfactory growth perspective, and poor profitability prospects. Further, despite ongoing liberalization, the regulatory framework still does not enforce far-reaching consolidation, leaving the industry in a fragmented status with massive overcapacities. Consequently, the industry needs to further leverage external deregulation as well as internal restructuring to establish more efficient and competitive business models. Aside from basic cost cutting, innovation may become the decisive driver of progress, comprising advanced business models, customer segmentation, and technologies (Franke, M., 2006. Innovation: the winning formula to regain profitability in aviation? Speech at the Hamburg Aviation Conference, Hamburg).