施工项目成本预测刍议

一、项目成本预测是项目投标决策的依据,是编制项目成本计划的基础成本是考核企业经营成果的主要依据,也是衡量企业经济效益的主要指标,项目成本是建筑施工企业成本的主要组成部分。项目成本管理不仅要反映项目在建设过程中的实际消耗,而且更重要的是进行项目成本预测,依据项目成本预测来确定投标决策。建筑施工企业在选择投标项目决策过程中,最重要的决择是根据预测招标工程项目是否赢利和利润大小等诸多因素来确定是否对工程进行投标。这样,在投标决策时要精心组织,预测结算项目成本的情况。只有通过对施工图预算比较,才能分析预算出项目…     

投保汽车七戒

各位玩车族朋友，当您投保汽车保险时，您知道应当注意什么吗？ 一戒重复投保。就是投保人自以为多投几份保，就可使被保车辆多几份赔款，如某人为自己的车先后在两个保险公司投了保．幻想到时能得到保险公司双份赔偿。岂不知按照《保险法》第４０条规定：重复保险的保险金额总和超过保险价值的，各保险人的赔偿金额的总和不得超过保险价值。因此，即使重复投保，也不会得到超价值赔款。 二戒超额投保或不足额投保。有的车辆价值２０万元，却投保了３０万元的保险，认为多花钱就能多赔付：而有的车价值１５万元。却只投保了１０万元这两种投…     

灰色局势决策在投标联合体伙伴选择中应用

现代大型工程项目投标中出现了很多联合体投标的形式，在进行联合体投标时伙伴选择是一个重要的决策问题。针对联合体投标伙伴过程中决策因素多、信息量大等问题，应用灰色系统理论进行分析和确定，建立了数学模型，为决策提供了一个可行方便的决策方法。     

现代化管理理念下的医院医疗器械维修管理探讨

维护是医疗设备生命周期管理中的重要课题，是提高医疗器械系统整体水平的关键。基于文档的形式来评估医疗设备维护过程中的各个方面，提供一种支持临床工程项目的正确、客观和标准化的方法，涵盖医院医疗设备维护管理的各个方面，涉及支持医疗设备选择、购买、维修和维护的决策，并通过必要的修改提高效率。     

建筑企业大型设备购置与租赁的决策方法

应用投资决策理论对建筑施工企业在工程项目施工前,面,临大型设备购置与租赁决策时,如何进行经济合理性测算的方法进行了介绍。从企业效益出发,列举实例说明了大型设备购置与租赁方案选择的原理和方法。     

基于框架表示法的工程项目案例知识表示研究

知识管理系统是当今研究热点之一。对一个知识管理系统而言,如何选择一种合适的知识表示方式至关重要。在建筑工程领域,对于工程项目案例知识的表示问题,由于案例知识的复杂性,一直都是一个难点。论文利用框架表示法善于表示结构性知识的特点,提出了一种有效的表示方法。通过继承把工程项目案例知识的层次关系表现出来,建立了工程项目案例知识二层框架结构。     

浅谈基本建设项目投资失控原因与防范

浅谈基本建设项目投资失控原因与防范吴书鹏陈明河一、基本建设项目投资失控的原因分析———项目决策阶段。１可研报告深度不够。可行性研究工作是在建设前期对工程项目的一种考察和审定，其目的是为项目的最后决策提供依据。因此，可行性研究是否科学、准确，直接影响...     

运用动态分析方法 加强投标决策管理——中旅大厦工程投标策略分析

近年来,随着建筑市场竞争的日益激烈,许多施工企业任务不饱满,一旦发现工程项目,便一哄而上,盲目压价、这种轻率的投标决策给企业造成的经济损失是不言而喻的。 施工企业的投标决策,简单地说,就是施工企业对自己投标工程项目的评价,即:对工程项目建设的必要性、技术可行性、经济合理性进行全面、系统地分析,作出定量和定性的评价,以便选出最佳投资方案。 动态分析方法,是指用运动的观点分析选择最佳投资方案,在分析时考虑时间因素影响的一种决策方法。该方法认为资金具有增值性,即随着再生产过程的不断进行,资金不仅要保存.而且要增加自己的价值。同时,资金的占用、借贷或使用都要付出一定的代价。这是动态分析方法决策的基础。动态分析方法具     

国际工程项目选择能力建设

何为国际工程项目?国际工程项目是指一个国家的政府部门、公司,或项目所有人(业主)委托国外的承包商按规定的条件承担完成某项工程任务.何为国际工程项目选择? 国际承包工程项目选择是在获取项目信息后,到决策参加投(议)标这段时间所做的工作,包括筛选项目信息、判断项目可行性、厘清项目资金和资金来源、用SWOT方法分析项目等.国...     

为保户支招之法律维权

日常生活中的风险是不确定的．通过投保可以转嫁风险、但要注意的是投保人在投保时要尽量规避使自身权益受到侵害的风险。如果一旦投保后发生理赔纠纷，你是否善用法律武器来维护自己的合法权益呢？被保险人对相关法律内容和程序一定要心中有数。     

基于EIQ和PCB的配送中心设备决策模型的研究

讨论了EIQ和PCB分析的基本内容.分析影响配送中心储存、分拣和搬运设备选择的因素,以及EIQ和PCB分析在配送中心设备选择中的应用,最后提出基于EIQ和PCB分析的配送中心设备决策模型DC-EDM.     

A decision method for supplier selection in multi-service outsourcing

Although supplier selection in multi-service outsourcing is a very important decision problem, research concerning this issue is still relatively scarce. This paper proposes a decision method for selecting a pool of suppliers for the provision of different service process/product elements. It pioneers the use of collaborative utility between partner firms for supplier selection. A multi-objective model is built to select desired suppliers. This model is proved to be NP-hard, so we develop a multi-objective algorithm based on Tabu search for solving it. We then use an example to show the applicability of the proposed model and algorithm. Extensive computational experiments are also conducted to further test the performance of the proposed algorithm.     

MFMC设计中加工设备选择方案的评价与决策方法

针对模块化柔性加工单元快速响应设计技术中的加工设备选择方案，研究了相应的评价及决策方法。采用编码量化的方法评价方案的可行性，便于计算机处理。层次分析法的引入较好的解决了复杂因素情况下方案的决策问题。     

Neural network application for fuzzy multi-criteria decision making problems

In this paper, a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model is presented based on a feed forward artificial neural network. This model is used to capture and represent the decision makers' preferences. The topology of the neural network model is developed to train the model. The proposed model can use historical data and update the database information for alternatives over time for future decisions. Basically, multi-criteria decision making problems are formulated, and neural network is used to learn the relation among criteria and alternatives and rank the alternatives. We do not use any utility function for the modeling; however, a unique method is proposed for eliciting the information from decision makers. The proposed model is applicable for a wide variety of multi-attribute decision making problems and can be used for future ranking or selection without managers' judgment effort. Simulation of the managers' decisions is demonstrated in detail and the design and implementation of the model are illustrated by a case study.     

3T0R类圆钢端面贴标混联机构构型优选

为保证用于圆钢端面贴标的工业机器人的设计质量,根据成捆圆钢端面贴标的工程应用场景,采用模糊综合评价法及层次分析法对尺度不确定的候选机构进行比较优选。以备选方案为基础建立模糊综合评价决策集,分析贴标工作及机构学相关知识,建立模糊综合评价因素集,比较各因素的重要性程度建立评价指标权重集,依据层次分析法对各评价指标建立模糊评判矩阵,由权重集及评判矩阵得到模糊决策集并对各方案进行排序优选,综合评价结果为RRP4RR RRRP4RRRRRRR。圆钢端面贴标混联机构可采用RRP4RR并联机构串接RR串联机构,所应用的模糊综合评价法可为贴标机构构型的优选提供决策依据。     

Incremental Automation with Sampling Applied to an Advanced Manufacturing System

Capital budgeting models for project selection have been extensively explored, but relatively little attention has been given to the aspects of post-audit and project control for the projects implemented. This paper examines the area of project control and proposes a method that incorporates post-audit information as an active element in the decision to maintain or terminate an initiated project. Project selection is primarily based on anticipated performance, as determined from the most accurate information available. However, in a sequential decision environment, information that is accurate at one point in time may become inaccurate at another. This paper will show how the Dirichlet distribution can be utilized to formulate appropriately weighted prior probability beliefs, and how these initial beliefs can be updated as we receive post-audit information. To do this, we incorporate categorized cash flow data in a unique Bayesian-based framework. To illustrate the use of the Dirichlet distribution, we present a case study of an actual automation decision for a flexible manufacturing system. This case study also demonstrates how decision strategies can be improved by using post-audit information, when compared with conventional methods.     

Understanding pastoralists’ dynamic insurance uptake decisions: Evidence from four-year panel data in Ethiopia

Despite the demonstrated benefits of index insurance, its adoption rate remains low in many developing countries. While a growing literature explores the factors associated with insurance uptake, we still know little about its dynamic patterns. Using a unique data set covering four years and six semi-annual sales periods of an index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) product in southern Ethiopia, we examine the dynamics of pastoralists’ demand for IBLI. We find that reduced insurance premiums induce households to purchase IBLI. While a one-shot subsidy can create a price reference point that may reduce the subsequent uptake, we do not find such price-anchoring effects. We also find that overall uptake decision is positively correlated intertemporally, although there is no strong evidence for learning by doing or learning from others. Finally, we show that pastoralists are more likely to purchase IBLI when drought risk is high, consistent with the existence of spatiotemporal adverse selection. We discuss the potential of distributing discount coupons to trigger initial uptake and adjusting premium rates dynamically to avoid spatiotemporal adverse selection as effective policy tools toward sustainable livestock insurance. Overall, our study signifies the importance of an empirical analysis that considers the dynamic demand structure.     

Which buying decisions are made by individuals and not by groups?

Much of the recent research pertaining to industrial purchasing has focused on the buying group rather than the individual purchasing agent as primarily responsible for vendor and product selection decisions. The present research was undertaken on the premise that in certain types of industrial purchase decisions (vendor selection in modified rebuy situations), the presence of certain mediating variables may indicate that the individual purchasing agent rather than a buying group may make the vendor selection decision. Based on data gathered from industrial buyers randomly selected from a national list and using the hypothetical scenario data-gathering technique, the major findings are that individual decisions seem to predominate in modified rebuy vendor selection decisions, that loyalty to existing suppliers seems to have an effect on the extent of individual decision making, and that the extent of joint and individual decision making appears to be related to the size of the firm.     

R&D Project Selection Models: An Assessment

Abstract— The R&D project selection decision is described as a process by which an intermittent stream of changes are made to lists of currently active and proposed projects. It includes generating alternatives, determining when a decision is required, collecting data, specifying constraints and criteria, and recycling. The decision is viewed as imbedded within a hierarchical, diffuse budgeting and planning process. Process characteristics such as multiple criteria whose relative importance varies over time, inherent uncertainty, and parameter interrelationships result in a highly complex decision problem. The existing normative R&D benefit measurement and project selection literature is assessed and the limitations inherent in the proposed models are determined. A number of research opportunities are identified for both methodological and empirical studies.     

项目组合选择研究：基于模糊理论的模型建构及验证

项目组合的选定与企业经营息息相关,然而传统的选择方法存在许多限制。本文应用模糊理论建构一个项目组合的决策模型,模型中纳入了成本、利润及风险等3个决策因子,探讨在资源有限的情况下项目成本及获利的交互影响关系,并利用模糊归属函数建构一个数学规划模型。为了验证模型的有效性,用此模型与传统模型进行求解比较,证实了所提出模型的实用性。