Logic of Aid in an Intertemporal Setting

The paper studies the welfare implications of temporary foreign aid in the context of a simple two‐country model of trade. In addition to its usual effects, a transfer of income in one period is assumed to influence the preferences of the recipient country in the following period. The implied changes in the terms of trade over the two periods are consistent with a number of possible outcomes with respect to the intertemporal welfare of the donor, the recipient, and the world as a whole. Particular attention is devoted to the conditions for strict Pareto improvement and the circumstances under which temporary aid transactions are likely to occur.     

Trade agreements, bargaining and economic growth

Rebelo’s two-sector endogenous growth model is embedded within a two-country international trade framework. The two countries bargain over a trade agreement that specifies: (i) the size of the foreign aid that the richer country gives to the poorer one; (ii) the terms of the international trade that takes place after the aid is given. Foreign aid is given not because of generosity, but because it improves the capital allocation across the world and thus raises total world production. This world production surplus enables the rich country to raise its equilibrium consumption and welfare beyond their no-aid levels. To ensure it, the rich country uses a trade agreement to condition the aid on favorable terms of trade.     

The Zero-root Property: Permanent vs Temporary Terms-of-trade Shocks

In this contribution, we show that the persistence and the time of occurrence of a terms‐of‐trade shock matter in determining steady‐state changes: (i) a strong persistent (temporary) terms‐of‐trade worsening induces a long‐run decline in the real expenditure greater than after a permanent disturbance; (ii) an adverse permanent shift in the terms of trade raises the real expenditure in the long run if the shock is expected to occur in the distant future. Finally, according to whether a temporary terms‐of‐trade worsening is anticipated or not, the current account displays a monotonic or a nonmonotonic adjustment.     

The Financing of Foreign Aid and Welfare: Income Versus Consumption Tax

Empirical evidence shows that developed countries use income or consumption taxes to generate tax revenue, of which they transfer a certain fraction as aid to less developed countries. This paper constructs a two-country general equilibrium trade model that takes into account these realities, and examines the terms of trade, employment and welfare effects of international transfers when the donor country increases the fraction of its income or consumption tax revenue transferred as aid. The desirability of each method of aid financing is discussed from the viewpoint of national and world welfare, and conditions are identified under which aid improves world welfare with the one method of financing, and may worsen it with the other.     

QUANTITY AND PRICE EFFECTS IN AN ANALYSIS OF WORLD TRADE BASED ON AN ACCOUNTING MATRIX*

This paper describes the construction of an accounting matrix for the world economy in 1977, cast along similar lines to SNA National Accounts, but one in which trade flows replace inter-industry flows as intermediate demand. The matrix distinguishes ten regions. Institutional accounts are presented for three of these, the European Community, North America and Japan. This matrix is used to provide the basis of a linear model in which average propensities to import and consume are replaced by estimated marginal propensities. Use is made of standard estimates of the income effects of terms of trade changes in order to distinguish substitution from income effects in the model, and a means is suggested for separating the full as well as the impact effects of a terms of trade change into income and substitution effects. The estimated import equations are used to derive estimates of regional growth rates compatible with external balance in each region. Multiplier matrices are calculated from the model showing regional interdependence of the world economy reflecting the pattern of trade which is identified in the marginal propensities to import. The effects of various aid policies are calculated using the model. It is shown that the cost of aid to any region is radically altered by taking into account the feedback effects of changes in demand. A policy of tied aid pursued by EEC, North America and Japan can actually lead to an improvement in Japan's balance of payments position. Finally the effects of movements in relative prices are illustrated by means of two examples.     

Foreign Aid, Innovation, and Technology Transfer in a North–South Model with Learning-by-Doing

The paper examines foreign aid in the context of a dynamic Ricardian model of trade and development that highlights the role of learning in both the initial adoption of new technologies and products and their eventual transfer from developed to developing countries. When aid is paid as a pure unilateral transfer, the conventional short‐run terms‐of‐trade improvement that results from a home bias in consumption causes harmful delays in the transfer of technology that can lead to mutual immiserization. Conversely, aid that directly or indirectly expedites technology transfer and learning in developing countries can be mutually beneficial.     

North-south trade: Export-led Growth with Abundant Labour

A North-South model is developed in which the South is represented as a neo-classical dual economy. Conditions are imposed which make temporary equilibrium unique and Walrasian stable and long run balanced growth paths globally asymptotically stable. In the short run an expansion of Northern demand for Southern products always improves the terms of trade. In the long run, however, an increase in the growth rate of Northern demand can turn the terms of trade against the South, reduce real wages and lower living standards.     

Current Account, Capital Formation and Terms of Trade Shocks: a Revisit of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect

This paper extends the Blanchard model of a closed-economy to a three-good (exportable, importable and non-tradable goods) open-economy model with capital accumulation and uncertain lifetimes to study the impacts of terms of trade shocks on the current account. The simulation results show that a model with uncertain lifetimes is more appropriate to describe a small open economy like Taiwan at the steady-state equilibrium than a model with infinite lifetimes. We find that the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect is discernible for temporary or permanent terms of trade shocks. Furthermore, the steady state is a saddle point and the speed of convergence of capital and consumption is quite low.     

AID TIED TO THE DONOR'S EXPORTS

Abstract.  The existing theory of tied aid presupposes that trade and aid are conducted in terms of private consumption goods. However, in such a world aid can be effectively tied only if the recipient government somehow prevents its households from reselling the aid basket on world markets. That weakness of existing theory is here removed by extending the theory to accommodate non-tradable public consumption goods. The most striking result of existing theory – that, even in a world of just two trading countries, the donor might benefit and the recipient suffer from the tying of aid – is preserved.     

Economic Growth,Terms of Trade and Welfare in an Open Monetary Economy*

The authors investigate the impact of growth on terms of trade, absolute prices and welfare using a two-country, monetary model. Under flexible exchange rates export-biased growth would lead to a decline in the terms of trade if the two countries are ‘similar’. Under fixed exchange rates a weaker condition than the barter condition of export-biased growth is sufficient, namely, for the import commodity the demand creating effect of growth dominates the supply effect while for the exported commodity the opposite holds. Secondly, substitutability between money and commodities indicates that no necessary relation holds between the terms of trade and the trade balance. Thirdly, the introduction of money creates a real balance effect so that decline in terms of trade is no longer a necessary (or sufficient) condition for immiserization. Finally, the paper concludes by questioning two policy conclusions drawn in earlier models: one, that the declining terms of trade of less developed countries was due to a bias in the growth strategy and, two, that monetary models of trade support the ‘monetarist’ proposition that growth and a deteriorating trade balance can only co-exist if the domestic monetary policy is nonneutral.     

An Overlapping-generations Model of Escape Clause Protection

The paper explores the efficiency consequences of using temporary protection to ease adjustment following an unexpected, permanent improvement in a country's terms of trade. In the model, workers trade off the potentially higher wage that the export sector has to offer with a lower job acquisition rate. An unexpected improvement in the terms of trade surprises old workers who cannot undo the decisions they made while young. Some old workers who had not planned to search for work in the export sector end up changing their plans, adding to the pool of searchers, creating congestion. Temporary protection can reduce congestion and make the transition to the new steady state smoother. Moreover, there are conditions under which the congestion externalities lead to multiple steady‐state equilibria that can be Pareto‐ranked. Temporary protection may lead to a permanent change in the allocation of resources, and this permanent change may be welfare‐enhancing.     

Foreign Aid, Infrastructure Development and Welfare: An Intertemporal Analysis

The author examines the welfare implications of foreign aid within the framework of a two-period, two-country model of international trade. It is up to the donor country to decide what fraction of any given aid package is to be made available for the recipient's immediate consumption in period one, and what part should be allocated for investment in infrastructure that expands the recipient's production possibilities in period two. The focus of the analysis is on the conditions under which both countries agree or disagree on the manner in which the aid funds should be divided between the two options.     

Does German Development Aid Promote German Exports?

Abstract. This paper uses a static and dynamic gravity model of trade to investigate the link between German development aid and exports from Germany to the recipient countries. The findings indicate that, in the long run, German aid is associated with an increase in exports of goods that is larger than the aid flow, with a point estimate of 140% of the aid given. In addition, the evolution of the estimated coefficients over time shows an effect that is consistently positive but that oscillates over time. Interestingly, after a decrease in the 1990s, the estimated coefficients of the effect of aid on trade show a steady increase in the period between 2001 and 2005. The paper distinguishes among recipient countries and finds that the return on aid measured by German exports is higher for aid to countries considered 'strategic aid recipients' by the German government. We also find some evidence that aid given by other EU members reduces German exports.     

The long-run effect of aid on health: evidence from panel cointegration analysis

Although a major objective of aid donors is to improve health outcomes in recipient countries, there is relatively little research on whether aid to the health sector leads to improved health outcomes, and even less on the impact of total aid. This paper examines the relationship between total aid and population health using panel cointegration and causality techniques designed to deal with problems afflicting previous aid-health studies: spurious regressions, omitted variables, endogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and parameter heterogeneity. The main results are: (i) aid has, on average, a small but negative long-run effect on health, (ii) while the long-run (or trend) effect of aid on health is negative, the short-run (temporary) effect of aid on health is positive, (iii) causality runs in only one direction, from aid to health, and (iv) aid worsens health mainly in sub-Saharan countries, but has a positive, albeit statistically insignificant, long-run impact on health in Latin American and Caribbean countries and in countries with negative values of net ODA.     

Providing Duty-Free Access to Australian Markets for Least-Developed Countries: A General Equilibrium Analysis

The Doha ministerial declaration commits WTO members to liberalising access to their markets for least‐developed countries (LDCs). Preferential trade policies have diverse impacts on the initiating country and its trading partners. These effects are of concern to scholars and policy makers. We use Australia as a case study to quantify the direct and indirect effects of providing preferential access to LDC imports entering Australian markets, using a general equilibrium model of the world economy. LDCs are projected to benefit and Australia is predicted to lose, reflecting adverse terms of trade effects. However, the magnitude of the adverse effect on Australia is small. If one was to view this initiative as an exercise in foreign aid, it suggests that Australia can provide a significant benefit to the poorest nations with which it trades, at almost no cost to itself.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS

The change in goods and services available in a national economy brought about by the shifting of external price relationships is referred to as the terms of trade effects. This paper reviews the various methods which have been devised since the war to define and quantify such effects on the Gross National Product. The statistical annex shows that, as far as OECD countries are concerned, the differences between the various measures are not significant. Whereas the effects from terms of trade represented, on average, less than one half of one percent of the GNP of OECD countries during the 1960's the percentage has increased substantially since 1973, due most importantly to the increase in the oil price; by 1977 (on a 1970 price basis), it had reached 5 percent of GNP in Japan and up to 6 percent in Italy. On the other hand, the extreme case of Saudi Arabia where various formulas generate effects amounting to between one half and the whole of GNP, indicates that the measurement of terms of trade effects by various methods may give different results.     

基于月度数据的FDI与安徽外贸发展关系实证研究

本文运用计量模型从外贸竞争力、贸易流量和贸易方式等三个方面考察了2003年1月到2009年6月间安徽省吸引外商直接投资与安徽外贸发展变化间的相互关系。结果表明,在样本区间内,FD I对安徽外贸竞争力变化的解释能力有限,而对机电产品出口贸易和加工贸易影响最大。短期外资变动反映在加工贸易出口和高新技术产品出口的变化上最为迅速,FD I与加工贸易出口互为格兰杰因果关系。     

The Losses from Trade Restrictions: Policy Dynamics with Firm Selection and Endogenous Markup

In this paper, I explore the aggregate effects of trade restrictions in a two‐country, dynamic, general equilibrium (DGE) model with firm selection and variable adjustment of markup. As a response to the trade collapse in the global crisis of 2008 and 2009, temporary trade restrictions have emerged in several countries. With analyzing the dynamics of a negative macroeconomic shock in the home economy first, and the subsequent introduction of trade restrictions in the foreign economy second, I show that both economies are in a worse position than they were during the economic downturn. The follow‐ups to the recession and trade restrictions are investigated through three mechanisms: (1) variable markup as a new avenue of increasing competitive pressure for producers (e.g. more competitive firms lower their markups); (2) average individual firms' specific productivity cut‐off, which induces their optimum export choice (e.g. an increase in the export productivity cut‐off means exporting becomes more difficult than before.); and (3) the movement of international relative prices (e.g. the real exchange rate and terms of trade).     

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Foreign Aid: A Panel Approach

This paper uses a panel approach to examine the determinants of foreign aid. It examines the extent to which taxes on international trade and the scope of government activities, ethnicity, private credit, and education determine foreign aid. The paper specifies and estimates a model that explains the allocation of foreign aid among 151 countries over the period 1975 to 1998. The key empirical finding suggests that Taxes on Trade increases foreign aid dependency. Moreover, trade, private credit, foreign direct investment, GDP per worker, and government consumption are important determinants of foreign aid. The factors that appear to decrease foreign aid include: Years of schooling, private credit, trade, and GDP per worker. The factors that appear to increase foreign aid include: Taxes on international trade, ethnicity, and government consumption.