An international comparison of working times

Although national statistics on working life are difficult to compare, presented here is an overview of the trends observed in the principal industrialized countries. Pointing out first that the reduction in working time which has occurred over the past few decades, while common to all countries, has come about in different ways and at different rates, and has reached fairly unequal levels, the article emphasizes that the dominant trend today is towards the growing diversification of working time by sector, by company, and even by individual worker. This phenomenon of the individualization of working hours, doubtless attributable to new production constraints, clearly results from the more general diversification of types of work, itself concurrent with the atomization of lifestyles.     

Diversification effect of standard and optimized carry trades

Standard carry trades, which consist of purchasing high- and selling low-yield currencies, provide an economic diversification effect. However, the diversification effect is not robust, and is not borne out by much statistical evidence. We introduce optimized carry trades, which incorporate risk components such as currency volatility or currency skewness in the selection process. These optimized carry trades provide a robust economic diversification effect observed by a larger Sharpe ratio, a reduced portfolio volatility, a smaller drawdown, or a reduced tail risk with respect to a benchmark portfolio. Moreover, a significant improvement of the mean-efficient frontier is observable, with the result that minimum-variance and tangency portfolio are enhanced. The empirical results reveal that optimized carry trades have a larger diversification effect than standard carry trades and their modifications.     

Private Equity and the COVID‐19 Economic Downturn: Opportunity for Expansion?

The coronavirus‐related global economic downturn poses a significant risk to PE portfolio companies, but also represents a significant opportunity to purchase quality companies at a discount. Because the industry is today much larger, as well as more diversified and experienced, than at the time of the 2008 downturn, it is better positioned not only to weather the severe economic storm, but emerge with an even larger and stronger asset base. Compared with PE at the time of the global financial crisis, today's $3.9 trillion private equity industry has considerably more dry powder, with more heavily capitalized strategies, including private credit and “secondaries,” more permanent capital, and stronger operational capabilities. In contrast with the pre‐crisis hyper‐competitive market environment in which purchase multiples were at record highs and returns faced significant downward pressure, the fear and uncertainty that characterize current market conditions have put PE in a position to grow its asset base at bargain prices. The advantages of scale, diversification, adaptability, and access to longer‐term capital are all expected to help today's larger alternative asset groups, which have in recent years achieved greater diversification in terms of strategy as well as geography and investors.     

Planning for tourism: Research needs in a growth industry

Will tourism become the world's largest single industry by the year 2000? Although business travel is determined mainly by the economic climate, the volume of pleasure travel is influenced by a range of factors: to clarify and quantify their effects, further research is necessary. Despite the current low level of tourism promotion, most people regard holidays as necessary. As working hours decrease, tourism will increase. Energy shortages will probably result in ‘organised’ rather than individual tourism. The redistribution of tourist flows from traditional destinations to the less developed countries is likely to occur. Government involvement may increase, particularly if the social role of tourism is recognised.     

Diversification Issues in Real Estate Investment

Real estate asset management has been and will continue to be a topic of great interest. Specifically, does real estate warrant inclusion in an efficient portfolio? And if so, how much should be invested in real estate? This article reviews the extant literature in the area of real estate diversification and helps identify the reasons that there exists so much divergence in the answer to the question, “How much in real estate?” Moreover, diversification as it relates to real estate is discussed in reference to both mixed-asset portfolios and for diversification within the real estate asset class. Directions for future research are also discussed.     

The economic effects of reducing and reorganizing working time

This article goes beyond the often ideological debate for and against a reduction in working time and analyses the effects of shorter working time at company and country levels. Logic and experience dictate that such reductions must be accompanied by a process of work reorganization and include financial compensation for those working shorter hours. However, while these three ingredients are indissoluble, not all firms can proceed at the same pace and in the same ways. Nevertheless, the article shows that, as long as implementation proceeds in a decentralized and selective manner and is accompanied by a judicious reorganization of these hours, it could be extremely beneficial to all parties—companies, the state and individuals, both workers and producers.     

Sustainability and the reconstruction of academic finance

It is now widely acknowledged that tackling the ongoing global economic, social and ecological crisis will require to redefine simultaneously the existing criteria for the allocation of capital, the modalities of corporate governance, and the mission of organizations. The present special issue hence attempts to discuss new practices, remove existing epistemological obstacles to a paradigmatic diversification in finance, and carve out innovative paths for financial research.     

Demography as a forecasting tool

The European population is rapidly ageing. This implies changing economic and social relations between the generations. In turn this precipitates economic change. In particular the welfare bill in the future needs to be paid for more dependants by a smaller working population. This fundamental shift also changes the conditions for productivity growth, trade and even monetary policy. Using demographic projections to forecast these changes and integrate them into futures scenarios contributes to realism in the futures envisioned. Demographic processes can be influenced by policy, but the feedback is slow. This ensures the usefulness of demographic forecasting but it also implies that policy decisions need to be taken well in advance of the problems that ageing will cause. At horizons beyond 10–20 years there are ample opportunity to adapt the society to avoid unacceptable scenarios. Before that the scope for action is much less and much more constrained. The inertia of the demographic structure is such that it is hard and probably costly to turn unwanted trends caused by unbalanced age structures. For example, a likely consequence of the developing scarcity of labour in Europe is that the demand for education goes down in spite of the desirability for society to expand higher education.     

Corporate diversification and shareholder value: a survey of recent literature

We survey the recent developments in the literature on corporate diversification. This literature is voluminous, diverse, and quite old. To make the task more manageable, we focus our attention on recent contributions to that subset of the diversification literature that is in our judgment most influential in setting the agenda for financial research. The study of diversification at the corporate level can be grouped into one of two bodies of literature: cross-sectional studies of the link between corporate diversification and firm value (i.e., the diversification discount) and longitudinal studies of patterns in corporate diversification through time. The prevailing wisdom among financial economists throughout much of the last decade has been that diversified firms sell at a discount and that the level of corporate diversification has been trending downward. However, recent research questions both these tenets and a number of studies now suggest that the diversification discount is either not due to diversification at all, or may be a result of improper measurement techniques. Furthermore, some researchers are now beginning to argue that previous attempts to assess changes in the levels of corporate diversification through time is also flawed as a result of biases built into the compustat database in combination with the use of noisy proxies for corporate diversification.     

Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia

The demographic transition—a change from high to low ratesof mortality and fertility—has been more dramatic in EastAsia during the twentieth century than in any other region orhistorical period. By introducing demographic variables intoan empirical model of economic growth, this article shows thatthis transition has contributed substantially to East Asia'sso-called economic miracle. The miracle occurred in part becauseEast Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working-agepopulation growing at a much faster rate than its dependentpopulation during 1965–90, thereby expanding the per capitaproductive capacity of East Asian economies. This effect wasnot inevitable; rather, it occurred because East Asian countrieshad social, economic, and political institutions and policiesthat allowed them to realize the growth potential created bythe transition. The empirical analyses indicate that populationgrowth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth;this effect operates only when the dependent and working-agepopulations are growing at different rates. These results implythat future demographic change will tend to depress growth ratesin East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growthin Southeast and South Asia.     

Recent working time developments in the UK : Insights from the engineering industry

Numerous factors in the UK have resulted in a step-like reduction in working time over the past century. However, the author argues that it is necessary to go beyond tracking the changes in the duration of the working week. Recent developments in the UK, particularly in the engineering industry, show that while unions continue to focus on negotiating reductions in the duration of the working period, employers have been paying increased attention to the arrangement of working hours and their intensity. As a result, in future it will be necessary to consider the working period in terms of the interrelatedness of duration, arrangement and intensity.     

Die demographische Entwicklung in Deutschland und ihre Bedeutung für das Kapitaldeckungsverfahren von Lebensversicherern,privaten Krankenversicherern und Pensionsfonds

The decline in population will increase dramatically after the year 2030; this development is accompanied by a dramatic change of the social structure of the German society and the aging of the population. Policyholders of annuity contracts who are now in the age of 35 will probably retire in the year 2037 and their death can be actuarially awaited near 2060. That means those people are completely affected by the development after 2030. The annuity contracts with a guaranteed interest rate (legally fixed for the duration of the contracts) dominate the new business of life insurance companies. The period of time of the interest rate guarantee can be up to 40 or 50 years. Our demographic profile leads to the assumption that in 2050 we will miss 15 million people of our working population; this represents the actual figure of the working population of Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland and Austria. Consumption, overall investments and the demand of borrowed funds will decrease. The level of the rate of return of bonds or other interest bearing assets will decline. On the other hand, the value of shares of those companies who belong to the winners of the global transition process we have started right now will increase. Unfortunately life insurance companies and pension funds — when they take investment risk — are forced mainly to invest in bonds or other debentures. The consequence can be a not attractive level of return of the premiums paid. A solution would be to reinforce the development and business of non guaranteed annuities and a higher quote of shares in the portfolios. Then it would be the duty of each policyholder to protect himself by diversification     

智能化对中国劳动力市场的影响——基于就业广度和强度的分析

随着自动化、智能化技术的不断发展,越来越多的工作岗位可能被机器和人工智能所替代。本文将美国劳工部标准职业代码与中国职业代码相匹配,基于Frey and Osborne(2017)对美国各种职业被智能化替代概率的估计结果,估算了中国各职业被智能化替代的概率,并在此基础上计算了城市层面的被替代指标。接下来,利用多个年份的人口普查和家庭调查微观数据以及欧盟的机器人使用数据,本文在城市层面和个人层面估计了智能化对就业广度(就业人数)和就业强度(工作时长)的影响。研究发现,智能化对中国劳动就业产生了明显的替代作用,一方面减少了就业人数的增长,另一方面却增加了在职劳动力的工作时间,分样本分析发现女性、低教育劳动者、大龄劳动者、移民等劳动力市场中相对脆弱的群体所受的冲击更大。     

Economic capital for nonperforming loans

A portfolio of nonperforming loans requires economic capital. We present two models for forecasting the portfolio loss and its probability distribution. In the first model, the loss for each nonperforming loan entails a change in provision over the risk horizon. The risk determinants are the single-name concentration, measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschmann index, as well as a systematic factor and the idiosyncratic risk. Our second model allows for interportfolio diversification with a portfolio of performing loans because banks typically own both performing and nonperforming loans. In this model, the nonperforming loan is identified with its systematic risk. Both models allow for closed-form expressions of economic capital and for the capital charge of the single loan. We calibrate the macroeconomic model parameters statistically with a loss panel; the microeconomic parameters depend on the portfolio. The portfolio risk for nonperforming loans mainly depends on the volatility of the systematic economic factor. The dependence becomes more pronounced when interportfolio diversification is taken into account. The magnitude of interportfolio diversification is also marked. Finally, we calculate regulatory capital charges according to Basel II for past-due loans. The regulatory charges are on average smaller than our economic charges and, additionally, take the volatility of economic activity into account only implicitly.     

Overtime reductions: Negligible employment effects

Summary Overtime hours were worked in Germany during the period 1990–1997 primarily by well-qualified blue-collar and white-collar workers. In addition, it is evident that overtime is increasingly being compensated by flexible leisure schedules. The scope for potential employment effects from a reduction of paid overtime is thus constantly decreasing and is much lower than the figures cited by unions in the current discussion. If the regulations to make working time more flexible being discussed in the “Alliance for Jobs’ were to be implemented, this would reinforce the observed trend towards compensation for overtime through leisure, further diminishing the potential employment effects. If the bargaining parties or the legislators would implement a reduction of overtime nonetheless, well-qualified blue-collar and white-collar workers in western Germany will suffer income losses.     

Toward a 21st Century Social Contract

This article makes the case for a new contract between business and government that will help us address the critical challenge of our time: the globalization of commerce, and its disruptive effects on labor, local communities, and the environment. The authors begin by showing how globalization has created a new playing field for government and business in which our current governance models and a social contract that proved remarkably effective during the 20th century can no longer ensure economic stability and social progress. While the private sector has for the most part demonstrated its ability to adapt and flourish in a global economy, governments have struggled, thanks in large part to complex decision‐making processes and centralized bureaucracies that were created in response to 20th‐century realities. The result has been ever more indebted nations and governments that have been unable to maintain the core foundation and social investments on which their economic competitiveness and the social well‐being of their citizens depend. Our challenge now is to create a new social contract between business and government that is equal to the challenges of a global economy. The authors identify a number of key issues that must be addressed in creating this new framework, and explore recent and emerging business leadership initiatives that are working to address them. These range from initiatives that encourage greater self‐regulation by business of its impact on society and the environment to those that explore ways for the private sector to help governments deliver services more cost effectively. As part of the fallout from the recent financial crisis, business, broadly speaking, no longer enjoys the level of public trust it once did, which has added significantly to the challenges it now faces in taking on greater social responsibility. To direct its considerable resources to the greater public good while continuing to produce a competitive return to shareholders will require a degree of innovation and leadership that many companies will find difficult. But without this increased participation of business and its leaders, it is hard to see how we will prosper in the increasingly uncertain future we now face.     

Environmental work profiles—A Visionary Life Cycle Analysis of a week at the office

This study aims to set up a method to analyse the variable office work profiles of jobs such as bankers, managers, specialists, researchers, etc. A worker's profile has to be assessed from the perspective of balanced sustainability including environmental, economic and social aspects. This paper starts with a presentation of a visionary methodology by which the environmental performance of present work profiles (taken from research reports and policy strategies by Finnish ministries) is assessed. Due to this all the work profiles presented in this paper are preliminary and only serve the purpose of illustrating the methodology. In a second step an extensive survey will be carried out in larger companies to create more detailed and empirical work profiles. At the same time, further effort has to be put into analysing alternative future work profiles and possibly to include economic and social aspects.In order to determine the environmental impact of office work, two normally independent methods are combined in this paper. A futures table is used to describe a number of alternative work profiles. This table matrix serves also as the basis to establish future scenarios of probable and possible working weeks. Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the tool used for figuring out the energy and material performance according to the modelled work profiles. When used together, the two methods comprise - as we call it with respect to future-oriented work scenarios - a Visionary Life Cycle Analysis (VLCA) of Office Work.The immediate results of this methodology demonstrate which working profiles are ecologically more sustainable than others. Weaknesses in behaviour patterns are detected and space for improvement is localised. In short: this methodology enables a company or single worker to analyse present work profiles and patterns and to create new visionary and sustainable work patterns. The final goal could be to provide a tool to document anybody's work profile and to show how - by changing certain habits - the individual's (environmental) performance could be improved.     

建立健全吉林省农村社会保障制度的难点与对策

建立健全城乡统筹的社会保障制度是解决城乡二元结构问题的一个切入点。目前吉林省农村社会保障制度建设仍处于初级阶段,不能适应农村经济社会发展多元化的需要。解决问题的关键是要找到阻碍吉林省农村社会保障制度建设的难点及其成因,以便制定符合科学发展观的城乡统筹的吉林省城乡社会保障制度建设与发展的对策。     

Production complementarities and flexibility in a model of entrepreneurship

The focus of this paper is the flexibility in working hours as a motive for entrepreneurship. The model exhibits inflexibilities for workers and entrepreneurs, which arise due to complementarities in production. In addition, it allows for volatile value of leisure to make flexibility in hours desirable. Differences in occupation-specific flexibility, disciplined with the observed patterns in hours (level, persistence, dispersion) and income (persistence, dispersion), can explain relatively low income levels of entrepreneurs in the US and the occupation-specific distributions of working hours and income. Policy relevance of the model features is discussed using experiments of workweek restrictions and income taxation.     

Real effects of financial market integration: does lower home bias lead to welfare benefits?

This paper proposes equity home bias as a proxy for financial integration in the ongoing empirical debate on the impact of financial integration on economic growth. In integrated markets, investors are expected to take full advantage of the potential for international diversification. The extent of equity home bias (i.e. overinvesting in domestic stocks and foregoing gains from international diversification) provides a relevant quantity-based measure of financial integration. Using different techniques to compute home bias, this paper investigates whether countries with lower home bias experience faster economic growth. Additionally, the analysis extends to the link between (decreasing) home bias and international risk sharing and income inequality. The results suggest that financial integration, proxied by the decreasing equity home bias, is positively associated with economic growth and international risk sharing. At the same time, it appears that higher financial integration pairs with higher income inequality.