Identifying the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes: a case study of Lahore,Pakistan

ABSTRACT

The study identifies the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes in Lahore, Pakistan, by investigating 461 reported cases to Traffic Police Lahore that occurred during January–November 2014. Road crashes are categorized into fatal and non-fatal crashes and, because of the binary nature of the dependent variable, logistic regression is used to identify the factors behind these crashes. As a follow-up, discriminant analysis is employed to classify the factors related to fatal and non-fatal crashes. The logistic regression results reveal that females are at higher risk of fatalities than male drivers. Among vehicle types, rickshaws and cars are more involved in fatal accidents because both are growing at large on roads. Long trucks and trailers are also involved in fatal accidents, mainly because of their huge size and drivers’ risky driving behaviours. It is also noted that risk of fatalities is higher in case where two vehicles bumped each other. Speeding and overloading are the common behaviours resulting in fatal crashes. Better urban transport systems and strict compliance with traffic rules and regulations may improve road safety in Pakistan.     

Effects of ethyl alcohol on injuries severity according to injury severity scales in pedestrian fatal injury in traffic crashes

Abstract

Introduction: The dominant cause of injuries in traffic crashes. A significant portion of them affects victims under the influence of ethyl alcohol. The goal of the studies was to assess the correlation between the state of sobriety and the severity of injuries expressed by injury severity scales in fatal pedestrian victims of traffic crashes. Research Material and Method: The data were obtained from the Warsaw Medical University's Department of Forensic Medicine. The analysis covered the data for 2009–2013 and included 200 fatal pedestrian victims hit by passenger cars. The assessment of the effect of risk factors on injury severity expressed in terms of injury severity scales such as Life Threat Indicator (LTI), International Classification based Injury Severity Score (ICISS), Injury Severity Score (ISS) and New Injury Severity Score (NISS), was made using adequately selected methods of statistical analysis. Results: As alcohol concentration increases in women, the values of LTI, ICISS-10 and ICISS-15 decrease, which denotes more severe injuries. In the ISS and NISS, the effect of alcohol concentration on the severity of injuries turned out to be negligible. However, these injuries are significantly heavier in women than in men. According to all the scales used, the older the victims, the milder injuries cause their death. Conclusions: The studies show that ethyl alcohol concentration may harm injury severity, especially in the case of women. The assessment of the severity of injuries in traffic crash victims is significantly influenced by their age and gender. The more risk factors the scale takes into consideration, the more precise is the assessment.     

Clustering-based classification of road traffic accidents using hierarchical clustering and artificial neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely used in predicting the severity of road traffic crashes. All available information about previously occurred accidents is typically used for building a single prediction model (i.e., classifier). Too little attention has been paid to the differences between these accidents, leading, in most cases, to build less accurate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is a well-known clustering method that seeks to group data by creating a hierarchy of clusters. Using hierarchical clustering and ANNs, a clustering-based classification approach for predicting the injury severity of road traffic accidents was proposed. About 6000 road accidents occurred over a six-year period from 2008 to 2013 in Abu Dhabi were used throughout this study. In order to reduce the amount of variation in data, hierarchical clustering was applied on the data set to organize it into six different forms, each with different number of clusters (i.e., clusters from 1 to 6). Two ANN models were subsequently built for each cluster of accidents in each generated form. The first model was built and validated using all accidents (training set), whereas only 66% of the accidents were used to build the second model, and the remaining 34% were used to test it (percentage split). Finally, the weighted average accuracy was computed for each type of models in each from of data. The results show that when testing the models using the training set, clustering prior to classification achieves (11%–16%) more accuracy than without using clustering, while the percentage split achieves (2%–5%) more accuracy. The results also suggest that partitioning the accidents into six clusters achieves the best accuracy if both types of models are taken into account.     

Under-reporting of road traffic crash data in Ghana

Having reliable estimates of the shortfalls in road traffic crash data is an important prerequisite for setting more realistic targets for crash/casualty reduction programmes and for a better appreciation of the socio-economic significance of road traffic crashes. This study was carried out to establish realistic estimates of the overall shortfall (under-reporting) in the official crash statistics in Ghana over an eight-year period (1997–2004). Surveys were conducted at hospitals and among drivers to generate relevant alternative data which were then matched against records in police crash data files and the official database. Overall shortfalls came from two sources, namely, ‘non-reporting’ and ‘under-recording’. The results show that the level of non-reporting varied significantly with the severity of the crash from about 57% for property damage crashes through 8% for serious injury crashes to 0% for fatal crashes. Crashes involving cyclists and motorcyclists were also substantially non-reported. Under-recording on the other hand declined significantly over the period from an average of 37% in 1997–1998 to 27% in 2003–2004. Thus, the official statistics of road traffic crashes in Ghana are subject to significant shortfalls that need to be accounted for. Correction factors have therefore been suggested for adjusting the official data.     

Fatal and serious road crashes involving young New Zealand drivers: a latent class clustering approach

The over-representation of young drivers in road crashes remains an important concern worldwide. Cluster analysis has been applied to young driver sub-groups, but its application by analysing crash occurrence is just emerging. We present a classification analysis that advances the field through a holistic overview of crash patterns useful for designing youth-targeted road safety programmes. We compiled a database of 8644 New Zealand crashes from 2002 to 2011 involving at least one 15–24-year-old driver and a fatal or serious injury for at least one road user. We considered crash location, infrastructure characteristics, environmental conditions, demographic characteristics, driving behaviour, and pre-crash manoeuvres. The analysis yielded 15 and 8 latent classes of, respectively, single-vehicle and multi-vehicle crashes, and average posterior probabilities measured the odds of correct classification that revealed how the identified clusters contain mostly crashes of a particular class and all the crashes of that class. The results raised three major safety concerns for young drivers that should be addressed: (1) reckless driving and traffic law violations; (2) inattention, error, and hazard perception problems; and (3) interaction with road geometry and lighting conditions, especially on high-speed open roads and state highways.     

Hotspots of road traffic crashes in a redeveloping area of Shanghai

To identify high-risk locations (hotspots) of road traffic crashes (RTC) in a redeveloping area of Shanghai, for formulating relevant countermeasures in similar areas. After geocoding the crash locations on electronic map, assessment of spatial clustering of accidents and hotspots spatial densities was conducted following Moran's I method, the kernel density estimation, the Ripley's K-function and the network-based kernel density estimation (NKDE). A total of 21,679 RTC incidents resulting in 24,147 victims were recorded from 2010 to 2012. RTCs tended to occur among male (81.8%) aged 20–49 years old (84.9%) riding buses (60.1%) or electric bikes (16.1%) in working time (15%). The network spatial analysis pinpointed the hotspots of RTC at the street level in the Songjiang new urban area, and more RTCs occurred at road intersections than on road segments. Findings from this research may help the authorities develop efficient programmes to target high-risk locations and specific vulnerable populations.     

A qualitative approach to the intangible cost of road traffic injuries

The consequences of fatal and non-fatal road traffic injuries (RTI) at the personal and household levels were analysed using qualitative interviews of 12 injured and of 12 relatives of people who died for this reason. Collisions change physical and mental health both of the injured and of their relatives. This leads to changes in daily activities and even to the redefinition of future life. RTI also changes the way people see and act in life, becoming an experience that teaches them. Survivors commonly transmit a road safety message afterwards. Changes in family life were evident (in extreme cases family's composition also changed), affecting intra-familial relationships. Associated unexpected and unplanned expenditures and loss of income have consequences in the short, medium and long term that unbalance household's economies and immerse people into a constant stress. Individuals and family's future plans are occasionally condition to whether they have or not debts. Household dependence in economic terms was sometimes observed, as well as uncertainty about future life and household's sustainability. Sometimes, households change and adapt their life to what they now are able to afford, having important repercussions in vital spheres.     

Prioritisation of road traffic injury interventions: results of a participative research with stakeholders in Mexico

The objective of this study is to use a qualitative approach to prioritise road traffic injury (RTI) interventions for the city of Cuernavaca in Mexico. Seven focus group discussions and two nominal groups were held with participants representing different road users and social groups. All the focus group sessions were recorded and video filmed. Processing and analysis of the information gathered was done using qualitative methods. The problem of RTIs was well recognised by members of the local community, represented by participants in this study. The participants showed knowledge of the causes and related urban development dynamics. Participants identified possible interventions, and even rated them. The participatory approach utilised generated helpful insights and it enabled the researchers to identify key local actors and issues, for example, concerns of different road users, perception of certain factors and actors as causes of RTIs, and attitudes and behaviour within a specific physical environment. A prioritised list for 18 different interventions was developed. The first one will be implemented to prevent RTIs in the youth population. Understanding the social context to analyse the problem and possible solutions as seen by the community is important when analysing public health problems because it informs decision making when developing and implementing interventions.     

Applying the capture-recapture method to estimate road traffic deaths and injuries in three non-contiguous cities in the Philippines

In establishing goals for the Philippine road safety plan, police data were used. Police reports are likely underreporting. We apply capture-recapture analysis to determine expansion factors and estimate the true incidence. Three cities were visited where data on deaths (2014) and injury (January–March 2014) from hospitals, police and civil registry were collected. Matching was done to generate a final list of injured and dead individuals. The Chapman method was used for estimating the true number of cases. Police data exhibited underreporting in all site. Expansion factors of the police data range from 5.4 to 29× for deaths and 3.2 to 47× for non-fatal injuries. Expansion factors are likely useful to estimate the true incidence of road traffic injuries in areas with weak injury surveillance systems such as the Philippines.     

Burden,pattern and outcomes of road traffic injuries in a rural district of India

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a leading public health problem and the understanding of RTIs in rural India is limited. The present report documents the burden, pattern, characteristics and outcomes of RTIs in a rural district of India using combined data sources: police and hospital. RTIs contributed for 38% of fatal and 39% of non-fatal injuries with an annual mortality rate of 18.1/100,000 population/year. Young males were affected most and two-wheeler users and pedestrians were involved in 45% and 20% of fatal crashes, respectively. Nearly half (51%) of fatal RTIs occurred on national highways of the district; 46% died immediately at the site. Among those hospitalised, 20% were under the influence of alcohol while use of helmets and seat belts was <5%. Trauma care was deficient in the district leading to greater number of referrals. Road safety should be given high importance in rural India with a focus on safe roads, safe vehicles and safe people along with trauma care.     

Product design and tort law: Safety implications of increasing similarity in civil liability and regulatory standards

This article addresses the impact of changes in design defect tort law on safety in the European Union and the United States, and draws two conclusions bearing significant product safety implications. First, tort law’s approach to design defectiveness is developing more cohesion. Although important differences in jurisdictional approaches remain, the differences appear to be diminishing rather than growing. In both the United States and the European Union, courts are increasingly relying upon a risk/utility balancing test to determine whether to impose civil liability for allegedly defective product designs. Second, the direction in which tort law is evolving is bringing it closer to defectiveness tests typically employed by government regulatory agencies in Europe and the United States. Civil liability standards are increasingly similar to regulatory standards used in determining whether a product should be allowed on the market at all. This trend toward greater cohesion in tort standards, and tort law’s increasing similarity to regulatory standards, has both positive and negative implications for safety. On the whole, the trend is likely desirable – it should encourage efficient products that are closer to an optional blend of safety and utility.     

Environmental risk factors contributing to traffic accidents in children: a case-control study

The aim of this study is to identify environmental risk factors related to road accidents in children of Tehran. This case-control study was performed in 2013. The cases were injured pedestrians aged 5–15 who were admitted to major hospitals supervised by Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The sample size for the cases was 273 and for the control group was 546. For the completeness of the clusters, 7 extra persons in case (total = 280) and 14 persons (total = 560) in control group were included. The interference of confounding variables assessed through forward conditional logistic regression. Result shows occurrence of traffic accidents was significantly associate with the width of the alleys or (<5 m: OR = 8.4, 95% CI: 3.3–21.5; 5–8 m: OR = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.8–12.2), distance from home to school((<100 m: OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.0–2.8), existence of parking lot (OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.0–2.3), traffic congestion (OR = 4.1, 95% CI: 2.6–6.4), traffic speed (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3–3.2) and existence of pedestrian bridges(OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.6–6.8). In the light of the important role of environmental factors in the occurrence of child traffic accidents, alleviating structural risk factors in addition to education and enforcement need more systematic efforts and planning by policymakers and urban planners to attain pedestrian safety goals.     

Road traffic crash injuries and fatalities in the city of Kerman,Iran

The objective of this study was to investigate road traffic crash injuries and fatalities. Cases of 3902 road traffic injuries (1709 drivers, 891 passengers, 376 pedestrians and 926 motorcyclists) and 1564 road traffic fatalities (RTFs; 1222 males and 342 females) were collected from 2005 to 2008 using the database of the police forces and Department of Forensic Medicine in Kerman, respectively. Results showed that 66% of the injuries were related to car occupants (drivers and passengers) and men/women ratio was 5:1. The highest men/women ratio was (12.2:1) for drivers, while the lowest ratio (1.8:1) was for pedestrians. Most of the injuries had taken place at 16:01–20:00 h followed by 08:01–12:00 h. Highest numbers of injuries were found in male with the age groups of 18–24 years. The highest fatality rate of 79 per 100,000 population occurred in 2007–2008. Fatality ratio indicated higher male ratio, four times higher than females. The victims were 39% male between 30 and 55 years of age. Head injuries were present in 69% of the cases. In our series of forensic autopsy cases, head injuries were more frequent in motor vehicle occupants, pedestrians and motorcyclists. On average, two people died per day in RTFs in Kerman.     

Gender and geographic differences in intentional and unintentional injury mortality among children in Illinois, 1988–1998

Road traffic crashes and injuries constitute a major health, economic and developmental challenge for many African countries. With only 4% of the world's motor vehicles, African roads witness more than 10% of the world total collision fatalities. With further motorisation, the number of road traffic crashes, injuries and fatalities are expected to grow. This study updates on the status, trends, causes, countermeasures and issues in traffic safety in African countries by reviewing studies published in the past 12 years. The study found that traffic fatalities continued its upward trend in recent years. Similar to those in motorised countries, the study identified that human behaviour and incapacitation account for more than 85% of the contributing factors reported by police in Africa. Unlike in developed countries, the victims of traffic casualties are primarily vulnerable road users. Pedestrians alone account for more than 40% of the total fatalities on African roads. Limited countermeasures were reported in the literature. The outcomes of these programmes are mixed and the research methods have inconsistent validity. Investigation in the feasibility of transferring proven programmes from motorised countries is suggested as an efficient measure for traffic safety improvement.     

Associations of traffic safety attitudes and ticket fixing behaviours with the crash history of Pakistani drivers

The study assessed whether traffic safety attitudes and ticket fixing behaviours were associated with the crash history. A total of 4018 male drivers from Lahore city participated in this cross sectional study. Most were aged 18–30 years (58.7%, n = 2362), 71.9% (n = 2887) received a traffic ticket, 66.5% (n = 2672) reported previous traffic ticket fixing and 71.3% (n = 2865) considered crashes as being the will of God. Crash history was reported by 95.4% (n = 3821) of drivers, and 58.2% of them reported being involved in a road traffic crash. The likelihood of reporting a previous crash was higher in those who had received a traffic sign violation ticket [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.40; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.15–1.72], were involved in traffic ticket fixing (aOR = 1.28; 95%CI = 1.07–1.53), and considered crashes as will of God (aOR = 1.86; 95% CI = 1.57–2.22). These results suggested the need for improving traffic enforcement monitoring and safety education in Pakistan.     

Extended investigation on road fatality in Brunei

Road fatality is one of the leading causes of death in Brunei with 79 deaths in 1993, the highest ever recorded. The Brunei government has been trying to reduce this by implementing new traffic measures and successfully reduced fatalities to 24 fatalities in 2014. Yearly road fatality has been fluctuating, but there has been a declining tendency overall. The aim of this study is to investigate road fatality in Brunei by extending the research. We developed a multiple regression model and carried out an analysis on road fatality in Brunei. Our analysis indicates that the road fatality appears to rise depending on the increase in the number of young drivers between 15 to 24 years and the number of unemployed people. Comparisons of Brunei road fatality rate per 10,000 vehicles are made with some other countries and we conclude that Brunei has approximately the same rate as Australia in 2014.     

Seat-belt use still low in Kuwait: self-reported driving behaviours among adult drivers

Kuwait mandated seat-belt use by drivers in 1976 and by front seat passengers in 1994. The study objectives were to identify and estimate current factors associated with seat-belt use and levels of potentially unsafe driving behaviours in Kuwait. In 2010, 741 adults were surveyed regarding driving habits and history. Only 41.6% of drivers reported always using a seat belt. Front seat passenger belt use was more common (30.5%) than rear seat belt use (6.5%). Distracted driving behaviours were common, including mobile phone use (‘always’ or ‘almost always’: 51.1%) and texting/SMS (32.4%). Logistic regression indicated that drivers who were young (18–19 years), male, Kuwaiti nationals or non-Kuwaiti Arabs, drove over the speed limit, had traffic violation tickets or >1 car crashes in the last year, were less likely to use seat belts. Targeted initiatives to increase public awareness and to enforce car-safety legislation, including use of seat belts, are necessary to decrease the health burden of car crashes in Kuwait.     

Promoting youth occupant restraint based on need

Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death for youth. Appropriate occupant protection significantly reduces these preventable injuries. Secondary field observation survey records were studied to identify populations that would most likely benefit from youth occupant protection programs. Multivariate regression analysis showed that drivers of youth between 4 and 14 years were in need of programs promoting youth and driver occupant restraint use. When these drivers were using seat belts, it was 35 times more likely they had youth occupants in safety restraints. A focus on pickup truck drivers may also give these programs greater efficacy in increasing youth restraint use. This study was limited to a single state, but the approach should be transferable to other jurisdictions where youth occupant protection field observation studies are conducted.