Forward exchange,short term capital flows and monetary policy

Summary This paper re-examines the relationships between short term capital flows and monetary policy, in the light of a new theoretical approach of the forward exchange market. They contend that the traditional forward exchange market theory is a misleading one as it fails to give all the importance it deserves to the distinction between covered and uncovered exchange transactions and to the actual role of the arbitrageurs. As a consequence of this analysis, they demonstrate that the problem of monetary management in an open economy must be dealt with in a way different from what has been usual, and they conclude that monetary policy, central banks' intervention on the foreign exchange market and direct controls on capital movements can still have some efficiency in the struggle against inflation, either of the domestic or the imported type.     

Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China

In recent years China has faced an increasing trilemma—how to pursue an independent domestic monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time facing large and growing international capital flows. This paper analyzes the impact of the trilemma on China's monetary policy as the country liberalizes its good and financial markets and integrates with the world economy. It shows how China has sought to insulate its reserve money from the effects of balance of payments inflows by sterilizing through the issuance of central bank liabilities. However, we report empirical results indicating that sterilization dropped precipitously in 2006 in the face of the ongoing massive buildup of international reserves, leading to a surge in reserve money growth.We also estimate a vector error correction model linking the surge in China's reserve money to broad money, real GDP, and the price level. We use this model to explore the inflationary implications of different policy scenarios. Under a scenario of continued rapid reserve money growth (consistent with limited sterilization of foreign exchange reserve accumulation) and strong economic growth, the model predicts a rapid increase in inflation. A model simulation using an extension of the framework that incorporates recent increases in bank reserve requirements also implies a rapid rise in inflation. By contrast, model simulations incorporating a sharp slowdown in economic growth such as that seen in late 2008 and 2009 lead to less inflation pressure even with a substantial buildup in international reserves.     

‘Towards improved monetary policy in Indonesia’: a comment

This comment argues that inflation-focused policy is appropriate for Indonesia but that it should be directed at underlying inflation over the medium term. It contends that McLeod's monetarist explanation of inflation in Indonesia is unsatisfactory in theory and is not consistent with the evidence: traded goods prices rose before, and substantially more than, non-traded goods prices during the crisis of 1997–98, which is not consistent with the monetarist view that inflation was caused by excessive base money growth.     

Short-term capital flows under flexible exchange rates

Zusammenfassung Kurzfristige Kapitalbewegungen bei flexiblen Wechselkursen. — In dieser Arbeit werden die kurzfristigen Kapitalzuflüsse in ihrer Eigenschaft als ausl?ndische Nachfrage nach heimischem Geld behandelt. Unter diesem Aspekt hat ein exogener Zufluβ bei flexiblen Wechselkursen eine unmittelbar deflation?re Wirkung. Auβerdem werden die wechselkursinduzierten kurzfristigen Kapital-bewegungen in einem einfachen makro?konomischen Modell analysiert. Selbst wenn man den mehr traditionellen Typ von zinselastischen Kapitalbewegungen in dem Modell berücksichtigt, führt der hier gew?hlte Ansatz zu bedeutsamen Modifikationen der Standardargumentation.

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Résumé Les flux des capitaux à court terme sous les conditions de cours de change flexibles. — Cet article se concentre sur les afflux des capitaux à court terme compris comme démande extérieure en faveur d’argent local. Un afflux exogène sous cet angle a un effet directement déflationniste sous les conditions de cours de change flexibles. De plus, cet article analyse le r?le des afflux des capitaux à court terme induits par le cours de change. Même en considérant le type plus traditionel des flux des capitaux étant élastique envers l’intérêt dans notre modèle cette approche mène aux qualifications signifiantes du modèle de standard.

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Resumen Flujos de capital de corto plazo bajo tasas de cambio flexibles. — Este artículo se concentra sobre los influjos de capital de corto plazo considerados como demanda extranjera por moneda doméstica. Un influjo exógeno tiene, bajo este punto de vista, un efecto deflatorio directo bajo tasas de cambio flexibles. Además, este articulo analiza el rol de los flujos de capital de corto plazo inducidos por variaciones en la tasa de cambio en un modelo macro-económico simple. Incluso considerando en nuestro modelo flujos de capital elásticos con respecto a la tasa de interés del tipo más tradicional, este enfoque nos muestra cualificaciones significativas del modelo standard.

     

我国短期国际资本流入研究

国际短期资本流动对我国经济的影响越来越明显。本文由国内外学者对国际短期资本流动的实证研究综述展开,分析并探讨了国际短期资本流动的动因。本文通过实证检验,试图找出影响我国短期资本流动的关键影响因素。研究表明,短期资本流动与中美利差、房地产指数以及证券市场的收益率呈正相关关系,而汇率的变动对短期资本流动影响不大,汇率的预期变动才是影响短期资本流动的因素之一。     

Saving,investment, and capital mobility: A comment on Leachman

In this note we use a consistent long-run data set recently published by Maddison (1991) for 10 countries to examine the long-run relationship between saving and investment. In contrast to recent findings of Leachman (1991) we conclude that saving and investment are cointegrated in many countries. Our results suggest that aggregate demand and supply shocks explain much of the time series correlation between total saving and investment.     

新股短期价格表现研究评述

新股抑价是证券发行市场普遍存在的一个谜题,许多学者提出各种理论进行解释。本文从信息不对称、信息完全和市场无效率三方面对这些理论进行梳理,借此对研究我国股票市场异常行为提供一些思考。     

Flexible exchange rates and perfect foresight: The implications of domestic monetary policy for foreign prices and stabilization policy

Zusammenfassung Flexible Wechselkurse und vollkommene Voraussicht: Implikationen der inl?ndischen Geldpolitik für die Preisentwicklung und Stabilisierungspolitik im Ausland. — Vorgestellt wird eine Variante mit zwei L?ndern und vollkommener Voraussicht, die auf dem 1976 von Dornbusch entwickelten Modell flexibler Wechselkurse basiert. Die Güterpreise in beiden L?ndern passen sich danach nur z?gernd der übernachfrage an. Die Isolierung des ausl?ndischen Preisniveaus von einem unerwarteten dauerhaften Anstieg der heimischen Geldmenge erfordert in dem Augenblick eine sprunghafte Erh?hung der ausl?ndischen Geldmenge, in dem es im Inland zum Anstieg kommt, gefolgt von einem Rückgang auf das frühere Niveau. Soll das ausl?ndische Preisniveau bei einer im voraus angekündigten Geldpolitik im Inland stabilisiert werden, dann mu\ die ausl?ndische Geldmenge zu dem Zeitpunkt sprunghaft erh?ht werden, zu dem die Ankündigung im Inland erfolgt. Die weitere zeitliche Entwicklung der Geldversorgung im Ausland h?ngt von bestimmten Parametern des Modells ab, die n?her erl?utert werden.

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Résumé Taux de change flexibles et la prévision parfaite: les implications des politiques monétaires locales pour les prix et la politique de stabilisation à l’étranger. — L’auteur présente une version de prévision parfaite et à deux pays d’un modèle des taux de change flexibles développé par Dornbusch en 1976. Les prix des biens dans les deux pays s’ajustent inertement à l’excès de demande. L’isolation du niveau de prix étranger d’une imprévue augmentation permanente du stock monétaire rend nécessaire un saut en stock monétaire étranger au moment où l’augmentation locale se passe, suivie par une réduction jusqu’au niveau initial. La stabilisation des prix à l’étranger au cas d’une politique locale monétaire préannoncée implique un saut en masse monétaire étrangère si l’annonce est faite. Le développement subséquent de la masse monétaire dépend des certains paramètres dans le modèle.

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Resumen Tasas de cambio flexibles y predicción perfecta: las implicaciones de la política monetaria doméstica sobre los precios externos y la política de estabilización. — Se présenta una versión de predicción perfecta de dos países de un modelo de tasas de cambio flexibles de Dornbusch de 1976. Los precios de los bienes se ajustan en ambos países lentamente al exceso de demanda. La aislación del nivel de precios extranjero de un aumento permanente no anticipado del stock monetario del pais natal requière de un salto en el stock de monedas extranjeras cuando se produce el aumento doméstico, seguido de una disminución a su nivel original. Estabilización de precios extranjeros con una pol⩼ica monetaria doméstica preanunciada envuelve un salto en la oferta monetaria extranjera cuando se hace el anuncio. La trayectoria en el tiempo de la oferta monetaria depende de ciertos parámetros en el modelo.

     

Uncertainty and monetary policy

The experience of monetary policy making in an uncertain environmenthas encouraged increased attention to the concept of model uncertainty,that is, uncertainty as to which is the best model. A particulardifficulty has been the need to operationalise the concept inorder to yield definitive policy recommendations. If this typeof uncertainty is unquantifiable, then a policy rule determinedby a single model may not in fact be the best approach; pluralismof method and the exercise of judgement offer a potential solution.A rigorous foundation for such an approach is available in Keynes'sphilosophical analysis of decision making under uncertainty.It is concluded that more analytical attention needs to be devotedto agents’ own model uncertainty, and to judgement. Butultimately the scope for synthesis between the model uncertaintyand Keynes uncertainty approaches rests on whether or not thesubject matter is such that knowledge of it is best representedby one formal model.     

Making monetary policy: objectives and rules

What is it that monetary policy-makers do and how do they doit? The simple answer is that a central banker moves interestrates in order to maintain steady real growth and stable prices.In this essay, I examine the issues that arise in framing theproblem faced by monetary policy-makers. I begin with a discussionof how, over the past decade or so, central banks have beenmade more independent and more accountable. The result has beenthe virtual elimination of the inflation bias problem that iscaused by political interference in the monetary policy process,and better overall macroeconomic performance. The essay proceedswith an example of a formal version of the policy-makers' problem,describing their objectives and the information they need toformulate a policy rule. I conclude with a discussion of a simpleversus complex policy rules, the impact of uncertainty on policy-making,and how central bankers use formal modelling in making theirday-to-day decisions.