负债制度阈值下债务结构对公司成长性的影响

在证监会IPO申请审核标准的约束下,中国存在70%和20%负债制度阈值。以2001-201 0年中国A股9860家上市公司为样本,研究发现,当负债小于20%时,长期债务或银行借款对公司增长起限制作用,而且银行借款对公司价值造成负面影响;当负债超过70%时,由于债权人的预算软约束,长期债务不减反增,助长了公司非理性高速增长,以及银行放任公司高风险高增长,造成公司价值毁损;当负债在20%与70%之间时,预算软约束状况得到改善,但负债的正面治理效应仍不显著。     

The rich, the poor, and the middle class: Thresholds and intensity indices

This paper contributes to the literature on the measurement of social classes by providing a wealth threshold for distinguishing the rich from the middle class and an intensity index for measuring the extent of affluence within a country. The empirical applicability of this approach is then illustrated with household-level survey data from the Bank of Italy; the results show an unambiguous decline in poverty and an increase in affluence in Italy between 2002 and 2004. Moreover, the findings indicate that social class is statistically linked to age, gender, marital status, household size, education, employment, and geography.     

The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact

We put the original Reinhart–Rogoff data-set, made public by Herndon et al. (2013), to a formal econometric test to identify public debt thresholds endogenously. We show that the nonlinear relation between debt and growth is not robust. Taken with a pinch of salt, our results suggest, however, that a negative association between central government debt and growth may set in at debt levels as low as 20% of GDP. Further (and greater) thresholds may exist, but their magnitude is uncertain. For general government debt, the threshold is considerably higher at about 50%. Country-specific estimates reveal a large amount of cross-country heterogeneity. For some countries including the United States, a nonlinear negative link can be detected at about 30% of GDP. For others, no nonlinearities can be established. Our results are a formal econometric confirmation that the 90% public debt threshold is not in the Reinhart–Rogoff data. But our results also seem to suggest that public debt be associated with poor economic performance at fairly moderate public debt levels. The absence of threshold effects or low estimated thresholds may not preclude the emergence of further threshold effects, especially as public debt levels are rising to unprecedentedly high levels.     

我国通货膨胀对经济增长的 影响存在门槛效应吗——基于省级动态面板平滑转换模型的实证分析

本文利用动态面板平滑转换模型,发现我国通胀率对经济增长存在非线性门槛效应。从东部、中部和西部来看,其门槛值依次上升,但通胀率对经济增长的影响速度却依次下降。在通胀率较低时,无论是当年还是上年通胀率,对经济增长都有促进作用;但随着通胀率的上升,虽然当年通胀率对经济还具有一定的促进作用,但上年通胀率对经济增长开始呈现较大的负向作用,两者间表现为左高右低非对称的“U”形。另外,经济增长的可持续在一定程度上也受通胀率的影响,并在东部、中部和西部表现出不同的特征。因此,央行应致力于降低通胀率来促进经济增长,并根据区域情况不同实施差异化的货币政策。     

金融市场发展、外汇储备积累与经济增长--基于国别门限面板模型的分析

外汇储备持续增长已成为多个国家的经济负担,然而不能忽视外汇储备增长对经济发展的积极影响。基于新兴市场各国短期内无最优方法改善高额外汇储备积累难题的假设条件进行研究,试图寻找能够将外汇储备的积极效应最大化的途径。利用27国相关数据建立门限面板模型后,分析不同金融市场发展水平下外汇储备对经济增长的宏观经济效应。研究结果表明：在发达国家和新兴市场国家,外汇储备均对经济增长具有积极影响。但是,不同的金融市场发展水平也会限制外汇储备的经济效应。金融市场发展水平越高的国家,外汇储备对经济增长的促进作用更为明显。     

Economies, Human Capital, and Natural Assets

Human capital concerns are used to structure links between the economy and the environment. Suggestions for empirical work to explore these structures are provided. Particular attention is devoted to connections between environmental hazards and influences upon parents’ decisions to invest in forming children's human capital.     

Veblen and Kropotkin on Human Evolution

This paper studies the spillover effects of economic fluctuations in the United States on economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Fluctuations in U.S. GDP growth have spillover effects that stimulate real growth and accelerate price inflation across many countries. Underlying these spillover effects are significant movements in private consumption, and to a larger extent, private investment. Openness to the United States has significant effects that accelerate growth of exports and/or imports across many countries. The net effects on the trade and current account balances vary across countries. Overall, the evidence supports concerns about adverse spillover effects of a slowdown in the U.S. economy on neighboring countries, necessitating careful mobilization of countercyclical domestic tools to hedge against potential risk and mitigate the severity of economic downturns.     

多维邻近视角下长江经济带区域金融空间联系特征及其影响机制

研究运用引力模型、网络分析、聚类分析、空间自相关分析和经济重心模型等方法剖析了长江经济带区域金融空间联系网络特征以及联系总量格局,并在多维邻近视角下采用空间杜宾模型探究了区域金融能力与金融网络规模的影响机制,研究发现:①"多核心"的金融空间联系网络格局较为稳定,网络复杂度持续升级,呈现"东密西疏"的空间分布特征,且在空间上形成三大层级性明显的金融辐射圈;②金融空间联系格局展现出"核心—边缘"的发展形态,空间集聚特征明显,发展重心在演进过程中呈现反"Z"形变化特征;③金融空间联系能通过信息技术发展打破传统地理空间距离壁垒,具有明显的多维邻近效应,其中城市经济规模、工业基础能力、产业升级导向和城市创新能力是区域金融能力与金融网络格局形成的主要影响因素,而政府供给导向因素具有较强的空间溢出效应,区域间的政府竞合行为有利于金融要素的流转与联系。     

Jobs,Production Linkages,and the Environment

Received April 29, 2002; revised version received July 12, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 We are indebted to two anonymous referees for useful comments. The work described in this paper was supported by a grant from the Research Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK 4032/98H) and the Research Center for International Economics of the City University of Hong Kong. The usual disclaimer applies.     

地理距离、投入产出关系与产业集聚

本文以新企业选址为研究对象探讨制造业空间集聚机制。主要工作是从地理距离与投入产出关系出发构建行业间距离指标,并基于工商企业注册数据、规模以上工业企业数据与投入产出表等相关信息,实证分析行业间距离对新企业选址的影响。本文发现,新企业选址倾向于靠近上下游头部企业所在城市,与上游行业(下游行业)头部企业的距离每增加1%,新企业数量将减少0.302%(0.331%);头部企业所属的产业链生态圈增强了距离负向效应。拓展性分析表明,16个制造业二位数行业(占比53.3%)表现出同时靠近上下游头部企业所在地的倾向。本文实证结果对推动国内贸易大循环与城市间产业协同发展等方面具有重要启示意义。     

Climate threshold,financial hoarding and economic growth

We use an iterative finite difference method to establish theoretical models that reflect the relationships among climate threshold, financial hoarding and economic growth. We build a simultaneous equations model to conduct an empirical analysis based on China’s statistical data from 1979 to 2012. Our study yields the following results: China’s climate threshold has shown a zigzag-shaped rising trend since 1979; the main reasons for the rapid expansion of financial hoarding were high savings rate, savings leakage, higher marginal efficiency of financial hoarding compared to capital efficiency or higher internal creativity of the financial sector; there were positive cumulative effects between financial hoarding and economic growth, which were significantly inhibited by climate threshold; the climate threshold had discrepant influences on different industries. To achieve a balanced economy, more money should be invested in the real sector to appropriately reduce the rate of savings leakage; the financial sector should move from scale expansion to service efficiency improvements to increase its marginal contribution to the economy and to enhance capital efficiency; the real sector should improve technological innovation and speed up the adaptive adjustment in climate-sensitive industries to move from economic growth to advanced development.     

外部联系与我国知识密集型服务业产业集群的发展

经典的产业集群理论认为,地方根植性,或者说集群内企业的内部联系是产业集群竞争优势的主要来源。在综述国外产业集群外部联系文献的基础上,提出外部联系对我国知识密集型服务业产业集群的知识更新和产业升级起到了关键作用的观点,并用环同济大学建筑设计产业集群的案例加以印证。最后,提出了地方政府要帮助集群建立全球联系管道的政策建议。     

外国直接投资、产业链联系与技术扩散

本地企业与外商投资企业的产业链联系是国际间技术扩散的主要通道。总结了影响产业链联系的各种因素，并指出目前我国发达地区的一些企业和外商投资企业已经形成了“拓展的飞地”型的产业链联系；最后提出了进一步加强产业链联系、促进技术扩散效应最大化的建议。     

Multimarket Linkages,Trade and the Productivity Puzzle

This paper examines the relationship between firms’ productivity improvement and the volume of exports, and shows that it can be sometimes negative, which seems to be an empirical puzzle. The key lies in that we simultaneously take into account intermediate retailers (i.e. vertically) and multimarket linkages (i.e. horizontally). With convex cost functions, when market conditions worsen, the manufacturer increases supply to the retailer who is larger or more efficient in trade cost.     

Volatility spillovers and connectedness among credit default swap sector indexes

This article studies volatility spill-over effects and market connectedness using daily data of credit default swap spreads for U.S. companies over a period from 2007 to 2012. We quantify volatility spillovers by means of an unconditional analysis performed using the entire sample, and a conditional analysis which estimates the model using a rolling window. As our database contains the global financial crisis (GFC), we are able to determine how volatility spillovers spread in the economy during the recent market turmoil. Our unconditional results confirm that the Financials sector was a main contributor to the overall market volatility along with the Consumer Goods, Consumer Services and Basic Materials sectors. The conditional analysis clearly identifies that the Financials was the major feeding sector of volatility spill-over effects, and that the market volatility was successively driven by Technology and Basic Materials over a rather short period of time, followed by Consumer Goods and Consumer Services over a prolonged period of time. Our results illustrate indirect linkages between the sectors that conveyed shocks during the GFC.     

Development Processes Seen Through Non-Marginalist Lenses with Considerations of Complementarities

Marginalism has deeply shaped neoclassical concepts and analytical tools that are applied to development economics. With a static notion of efficiency defined for a state of competitive equilibrium, neoclassical economists study development in equilibrium frameworks, regarding underdevelopment as the consequence of market failures. How might one, who is not equipped with marginalist lenses, look at development processes as they unfold in history? Prior to the emergence of marginalism such observations abounded in the works of the so-called “protectionists,” where ever-evolving production complementarities figure prominently, and there were considerations of indivisibility. In the postwar era, this is present in the works of some early development economists, especially Albert Hirschman in his employment of backward and forward production linkages to characterize development processes, which are viewed as unfolding series of disequilibria. Historical sequences of events reflect path-dependence and they feedback on each other to exhibit circular and cumulative causation. One thing leads to another, or some things lead to others and so on, including institutional changes. However, the activation of linkages could encounter obstacles, with “technological strangeness” being one, in which case sequential policy intervention could be warranted. This article briefly considers differences with the neoclassical approach in generating policy recommendations.     

Heterogeneity in Ability and Inheritance,Disparities, and Development

This paper investigates the impact of income inequality on economic growth. A two-period overlapping generations model is developed where agents are heterogeneous in innate abilities and inheritance. In the first period, they receive their inheritance and their abilities are revealed. There are only two types of abilities: high and low. Individuals decide on their education level, and divide their inheritance between spending on education and saving. In the second period, individuals supply their labor and allocate the labor income and the return to their saving between consumption and bequests to their offsprings. Initial capital stock is owned entirely by the capitalists. In this context, a more equal distribution of income enhances economic growth if the economy is lower than a threshold capital-labor ratio, while income inequality has an insignificant effect above this threshold. The predictions of the model are tested empirically using the Hansen (1999) threshold estimation. The results, using a panel of 70 countries for the period 1971-1999, suggest that there is a statistically significant threshold income per capita, below which the coefficient on the relationship between inequality and economic growth is significantly negative and above which the estimate is not significant.     

Income Distribution, Redistributive Politics, and Economic Growth

This article studies the political economy of inequality and growth by combining the political economy approach with an imperfect capital market assumption. In the present model, there emerges a class of individuals whose members do not invest privately beyond the state-financed schooling, due to their initial wealth constraint. We show that inequality affects private investment not only through the political effect, which relates inequality to private investment negatively, but also through what we call the threshold effect, which associates inequality to private investment positively. In general, private investment and inequality do not show a monotone negative relationship.     

中国服务业发展的驱动力：基于产业关联视角的实证检验——兼论“后金融危机”时代中国服务业发展的战略选择

服务业发展的驱动力决定服务业发展的质量和效率。本文基于产业关联视角实证检验了中国服务业发展的驱动力,结果发现中国服务业同农业和制造业的外部产业关联良性交互关系还没有很好的形成,这主要表现在中国制造业和农业发展对服务业发展的引致效果较微弱,而且制造业产出对服务业产出的引致呈现出均质性特征,特别是没有形成对生产性服务的大量引致性需求。因此,转变服务业的发展方式,提高生产性服务业同本土制造业和农业的产业关联程度,促进制造业和农业的产业升级,是“后金融危机”时代我国现代服务业发展的重要战略目标。     

Export Processing Zones, Backward Linkages, and Variable Returns to Scale

This paper investigates the effects of forming export processing zones on factor rewards, national income, and the intermediate-good-producing sector under variable returns to scale (VRS). It is shown that the results obtained in the model under constant returns to scale are substantially modified if VRS is incorporated into the model.