资源约束与经济增长:一个开放条件下的新古典模型

本文首先设立了一个反映产出与经济规模和资源投入之间关系的生产函数,该生产函数中,以资本存量代表经济规模,以资源中间品数量代表资源投入.在此基础上,在技术水平不变和储蓄率外生等具有新古典经济增长模型特色的假定条件下,建立了一个研究可再生资源约束与经济增长之间关系的理论模型.该模型首先分析了封闭条件下资源相对丰裕和存在资源约束情况下,经济增长方式的变化及合理经济增长方式的选择,进而在此基础之上,讨论了开放条件下,资源贸易小国在不同的世界资源价格下,能否以及如何通过进口来突破资源约束对经济增长的限制.     

补贴资源性产业的扭曲效应研究——基于开放经济下的经济增长视角

本文在索洛—斯旺模型的基本框架下引入了资源中间品部门和资源中间品的国际贸易,构建了一个开放的经济增长模型。在此基础上进一步分析了补贴资源中间品部门引发的市场扭曲及其福利效应。本文的研究指出,在开放经济中,资源中间品的国际价格水平会影响经济增长的模式。当资源中间品的国际价格低于某一临界值时,经济增长是可持续的,否则经济增长将进入稳定状态。补贴资源中间品部门所产生的扭曲效应会受到资源中间品国际价格水平的影响,资源中间品的国际价格越高,补贴的福利损失越大。     

论经济特区企业兼并与经济增长

<正>特区尽管在各个方面都走在全国前列,但在企业兼并方面的发展仍不尽人意,许多人都没有认识到企业兼并是一种配置资源的机制,是市场经济条件下社会化大生产发展到一定阶段的必然产物。企业兼并在特区的运用,其实质是通过企业所有权或企业产权的转让,调整产业经济结构,促进企业规模结构演进,实现存量资源再配置。因此,企业兼并也是一种经济增长机制。改革开放十多年来,特区经济实现了前所未有的高速增长,但主要依靠劳动和资本的投入,是粗放型经济增长。产业经济结构失衡,企业规模结构不合理,投资增量有限等问题,极大地制约了特区经济的可持续增长。因此,各个特区政府都提出要建立和完善企业兼并机制,由现阶段特区经济增长方式粗放型向集约型转变,实现可持续高效率经济增长。     

中国经济减速:周期调整还是趋势下滑?

三方面原因促成此轮中国经济的调整:国内宏观经济周期、外部冲击以及中国经济潜在增长力的变化。在当前较高通货膨胀的压力下,短期内的周期调整势在必行,情况可能会因为外部冲击加重,短期内中国经济减速在所难免。中国经济高增长所面临的内部和外部环境都已经发生了显著变化。新环境下资本和劳动投入至少不会像以前那样对中国经济高增长率形成如此有力的支持,资源配置效率的进一步提高也面临严峻挑战,资源利用效率问题成为中国未来经济增长的关键。为了避免由于经济环境变化带来的增长趋势下滑,中国需要积极推进增长模式的转变。当前尤其突出的是推进国有行政垄断部门的市场化改革和减少对贸易品部门的政策优惠,这些供给面的改善会提供广阔的资源利用效率进步空间,并为中国经济的可持续增长打下更牢固的基础。     

国际外包与中国城乡收入差距关系的实证研究:1981～2007

基于内生经济增长理论的核心观点,本文在专用要素模型分析框架下将国际外包的经济效应分解为产出技术效应和成本技术效应,对外包与中国城乡收入差距的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示,在当前城乡人力资本水平存在明显差异的情况下,收入差距与中间品贸易存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,而中间品贸易进口和贸易结构的升级则是导致差距扩大的重要原因。因此,缩小城乡人力资本水平的差异应该成为解决城乡收入差距问题的长期着力点。     

国际服务外包、技术外溢与承接国的技术进步

本文构建了一个包括三个部门的开放经济增长模型,考察了国际服务外包的技术外溢对承接国技术进步的影响。分析结果表明,在开放经济条件下,国际服务外包产生的技术外溢对承接国的技术进步具有正向的促进作用,但是技术外溢效应的大小要受到承接国的贸易开放程度、人力资本存量水平和国内外技术差距等因素的制约。承接国的贸易开放程度越高、人力资本存量越多,国际服务外包的技术外溢效应越大。在具有一定的技术吸收能力的基础上,当承接国与外包国的技术差距水平保持在一个适度的范围内时,承接国际服务外包能够获得较大的技术外溢效应。本文的分析结论对我国承接国际服务外包业务具有重要启示。     

资源价格改革需要注意的几个问题

随着2005年12月26日全国范围内天然气价格的调整，有媒体称“资源价格改革的大幕”已经拉开，甚至已是“悄然提速”。资源价格改革是理顺资源价格，发挥价格杠杆作用，实现资源有效利用和节约，转变经济增长方式的惟一途径；也是中国在现有资源约束条件下，实现经济社会可持续发展的必然选择。然而，改革进行到目前阶段，其复杂性、艰巨性已非当年简单的“价格闯关”情景可比，资源价格改革若要取得成功，     

完善资源价格,促进增长方式转变,构建节约型社会

资源价格低估是阻碍我国经济增长方式转变的重要原因之一随着我国经济的快速发展,自然资源的经济属性发生了根本变化,由普通物品转为稀缺资源的形势已经非常严峻,如何制订战略,调整布局,加大投入并发挥资本市场的资源配置功能,促进资源产业的现代化,实现资源可持续利用已成为政     

中国经济需要制度性变革——访中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所国际投资研究室主任张明

对于中国经济的可持续增长，三方面的改革至关重要。第一方面是收入再分配。第二方面是要打破国有企业在若干服务业部门的垄断，让民间资本充分进入。第三方面是要加速推进国内各种要素价格的市场化。     

加工贸易进口、一般贸易进口与经济增长的关系——一个协整和影响机制的经验研究

为了明确进口对经济增长的作用,本文分别考察了加工贸易进口、一般贸易进口与我国经济增长的关系。本文首先用人均国内生产总值对两个贸易变量进行回归,然后建立协整和误差修正模型分析进口与经济增长的长短期均衡关系,最后将人均资本、技术水平、人力资本存量和制度变化分别对加工贸易进口、一般贸易进口进行回归分析,得出进口对经济增长的影响途径。结论是,加工贸易进口与我国经济增长的关系较为紧密,主要是通过影响制度变革促进经济增长,其短期效应较为明显;一般贸易进口对经济增长的作用发挥较为迟缓,但两者存在长期均衡关系,作用途径是人均资本的提升。     

Promoting Private Entrepreneurship for Deepening Market Reform in China: A Resource Allocation Perspective

After more than three decades of rapid growth, China's economy is going through an important turning point, where structural imbalances in both supply and demand sides must be addressed for a more moderate and sustainable growth path. By focusing on the structural changes to its ownership, a central element in China's economic transformation under market reform, the present paper highlights the importance of private entrepreneurship in deepening market reform and, thereby, in driving economic growth in a more efficient and sustainable way. Based on a perspective of resource allocation and a conceptual framework of entrepreneurship, the paper elaborates on the evolution of the private sector and its performance in the context of ownership reform, making comparisons with the performance of the state sector. The analysis suggests that there is further room for more productive use of economic resources, especially capital, land and natural resources, by increasing the participation of private entrepreneurs in industries with high entry barriers in favor of state‐owned enterprises. Moreover, more competitive and equal access to productive resources through reform is needed to promote more productive entrepreneurship and to reduce rent‐seeking activities.     

脱实向虚、企业家劳动异质与供给侧结构性改革

融合劳动价值论和新熊彼特增长理论,考虑需求结构升级、企业家劳动异质、经济增长导向三大假设,构建多部门新熊彼特增长模型,并运用31个省份1993—2018年的面板数据进行实证分析,发现“脱实向虚”对经济增长的影响机理是:“脱实向虚”引致企业家创新性劳动减少,生产率参数受阻,经济增长率下降。这使得新古典框架下“从资本向全要素生产率升级的创新性劳动偏向型道路”可能转向“从资本向投机演变的投机性交易劳动偏向型道路”,出现供给侧结构性失衡。只有优先解决“脱实向虚”带来的供给侧结构性失衡,才能回归供给侧的正常资源配置结构,因此,中国供给侧结构性改革的路径不能简单仿效西方进行管制放松或自由化,而应先运用政府之手,构建现代化经济体系,将投机性交易劳动关进“笼子”;进而运用市场之手,优化资源配置,释放创新性劳动的活力。     

The Impact of FDI on Developing Countries

I. IntroductionForeign direct investment (FDI) has been one of the defining features of the world economyover the last two decades. It has grown at an unprecedented pace for more than ten years,with only a slight interruption during the recession of the early 1990s. Almost all economiesnow are competing to attract multinational corporations (MNCs). Inward FDI flows havebeen far exceeding private debt flows until recently in some emerging market economies. Interms of geographic distributio…     

Growth, institutions and knowledge: a review and reflection on the historiography of 18th–20th century China

This article surveys major themes on the latest revisionist thesis of economic growth in China during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. With an emphasis on the role of informal and formal institutions to economic growth, this article reviews the traditional legal system and its impact on the organizational evolution of major Chinese merchant groups. It argues that, to understand the distinctive path of long-term economic growth or stagnation in China, we need to go beyond the study of resource endowments or technologies, to also incorporate an economic analysis of China's traditional social and political institutions and their associated ideologies.     

Explaining Nigeria’s Economic Growth: Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Approach With External and Internal Imbalances

This study employs a system estimator to examine the validity of balance of payment constrained growth model in the case of Nigeria. We modified a version of Thirlwall’s model developed by Soukiazis et al. (2014) to incorporate the role of foreign contents in growth process. The new version of the model improves significantly explaining the growth in Nigeria. The outcome of this study shows that imported intermediate and capital goods significantly contribute to manufacturing export and domestic investment growth. However, high reliance on the imports of intermediate goods constrains economic growth. World real income exerts significant effect on aggregate exports, similar arguments could not be established when the manufacturing export sector is considered in isolation. Our results reveal that economic growth in Nigeria is constrained by internal and external imbalances. The study recommends among others increasing the manufactured export share, efficient use of oil rents as well as containing budget deficit within acceptable threshold to position the economy on a viable growth path.     

对20世纪90年代以来美国经济增长中金融体系作用的分析与思考——基于内生增长理论的研究

本文以Aghion-Howitt内生增长理论为基础,建立了金融对经济增长作用机制的分析框架。运用这一框架,本文对美国经济增长和金融体系的作用进行了研究,认为美国金融体系既能够有效地促进资本积累,也能够推动创新,从而保持经济的平衡稳定增长,最后,结合两次金融危机指出了美国金融体系的内在缺陷。     

Dynamic paths of innovation in natural resource industries in Australia and Norway since World War Two

This paper challenges Ed Barbier’s influential contribution to the resources and economic development debate and extends our understanding of the process of resource-based development in two relevant economies since World War Two. We argue that: the expansion of resource-based industries remained a viable path of economic development in the ‘contemporary era’ since the 1950s; nations have modernised their economies while continuing to invest in resource industries; and innovation frontiers more than physical frontiers shaped the development of natural resource industries. We build our argument by providing a comparative study of two successful resource-based economies, Australia and Norway. Our focus is on aquaculture and offshore oil and gas, growth industries in both countries. Aquaculture is renewable and of recent origin, offshore oil and gas is non-renewable but with a longer history in other nations. Differences between the two nations are also discussed, particularly the narrower product specialisations of Norway. In both nations and both industries, though, there are common patterns of knowledge-intensive development through three stages – learning from older and imported technologies, the development of national capabilities, and their exploitation overseas through internationalisation – that draw upon the relationship between the resource sector and its supporting enabling sector.     

The Russian economy resource sector: Its scale and interindustry interactions

Problems and consequences of resource specialization are considered. The size of the resource sector and its contribution to the main indicators of the Russian economy under economic growth are assessed. Interindustry links of resource industries, the formation and distribution of their revenues, and the tax load on the resource sector are analyzed using input-output tables.     

Game ranching inter-sectoral linkages: A structural path analysis for South Africa

Unfamiliarity with the economic structure of the game ranching sector is regarded as one of the reasons why questions are raised with regard to the potential economic impact of continued growth in the sector. This study employs structural path analysis to provide a better understanding and subsequently improves the ability to conceptualise the potential economic impact of the sector. Amongst others, results revealed strong economic links between the community, social and personal, chemicals and chemical products, manufacturing and equipment, transport equipment, business services sector, and so forth, either directly or indirectly, and the game ranching sector. The same accounts for income distribution, with households receiving income from production activities in other sectors that are directly or indirectly generated by stimulus within the game ranching sector. Finally, results underline the fact that game ranching has the potential for making a meaningful contribution towards economic and socioeconomic challenges in South Africa.