中国与新兴经济体的贸易、投资及战略合作

随着部分发展中国家经济的快速发展,新兴经济体这一概念逐渐流行,并迅速成为经济研究中的热点。“新兴经济体”在现实中更多地被界定为少数几个国家组合成的具有特定称谓的集团,如“金砖四国”和“基础四国”。本文选择“金砖四国”加上南非这五个国家作为新兴经济体的代表。     

墨西哥加入“金砖国家”合作机制研究

金砖国家已经成为新兴经济体进行多边合作的一种新模式和全球经济治理的一个新平台。2000年之后墨西哥与金砖国家经济周期波动存在比较明显的协动性,SPSS因子分析的结果表明,墨西哥与金砖国家经济周期协动性的出现在很大程度上可以用世界经济特别是先进经济体经济波动的冲击予以解释。这一研究结论从一个侧面反映出金砖国家应当吸纳墨西哥加入进行扩容,以便通过加强经济合作和政策协调来共同应对冲击和挑战。     

中国敲开世界阿里巴巴山洞的智慧之源

<正>让人瞩目的"金砖五国",就像是古老波斯王国传说里的"芝麻开门"的魔咒,让中国与世界相通,联系得更加紧密。从金砖四国到金砖五国,这个来自国际新兴经济体的力量,又一次得到了加强。在世界经济总体呈现继续复苏的态势下,金砖国家成为世界上主要发展中国家和新兴经济体,印度工商联合会前会长拉詹·巴蒂·米塔尔表示,当今世界重要的经济体都在走"集合"路     

中国敲开世界阿里巴巴山洞的智慧之源

让人瞩目的"金砖五国",就像是古老波斯王国传说里的"芝麻开门"的魔咒,让中国与世界相通,联系得更加紧密。从金砖四国到金砖五国,这个来自国际新兴经济体的力量,又一次得到了加强。在世界经济总体呈现继续复苏的态势下,金砖国家成为世界上主要发展中国家和新兴经济体,印度工商联合会前会长拉詹·巴蒂·米塔尔表示,当今世界重要的经济体都在走"集合"路     

后危机时代“金砖四国”治理通胀措施的比较北大核心CSSCISSCI

2008年金融危机以来,主要发达经济体实施了量化宽松的货币政策,以"金砖四国"(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国)为代表的新兴经济体通货膨胀问题凸显。本文以金砖四国为研究对象,分析各国治理通货膨胀的政策措施及其效果,从货币政策、财政政策及行政性措施三方面进行分析并给出评价,最终得出结论。     

“金砖四国”服务贸易竞争力的结构及影响因素分析

金融危机后,新兴经济体及其代表＂金砖四国＂的国际地位和经济影响力日渐重要。本文在对＂金砖四国＂服务贸易竞争力进行比较分析的基础上,又进一步考量了教育环境水平、基础设施水平和生活环境水平对服务贸易竞争力的影响,认为虽然新兴服务贸易对于我国服务贸易竞争力的提升具有重要意义,但是相对于我国目前人力资源丰富、经济实力快速上升的现实条件,大力发展传统服务贸易将对于解决就业、扩大内需及服务贸易竞争力的提升更为有利。     

“金砖四国”合作将给中国带来什么？——专访清华大学国际问题研究所所长阎学通

世界的三大经济力量变成了美、欧和以“金砖四国”为代表的新兴经济体，中国在复兴的道路中到底需不需要盟友？     

媒体速览

＂灵猫六国＂来了如今对冲基金经理之间流行的词是＂灵猫六国＂而非＂金砖四国＂。＂灵猫六国＂被认为将替代＂金砖四国＂成为未来10年经济增长热点。＂金砖四国＂（BRICs）指的是巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国,该词是高盛首席经济学家吉姆&#183;奥尼尔在2001年时提出的,它被广泛用于描述全球经济实力从发达国家向新兴市场转移的情况。     

金砖四国国际金融实力提升对国际金融及其治理的影响

近年来,金砖四国金融开放度提高,国际金融实力有所提升,有利于为国际市场提供低成本资金,维护国际金融稳定,推动国际金融体系改革。但受制于金融发展滞后,四国在国际分工中仍处于劣势,其国际金融实力的上升与实体经济及对外贸易的发展不相称,难以在国际金融治理和国际经济不平衡的调整中发挥重大作用。未来四国应加快国内金融改革,大力发展金融市场;进一步密切四国之间以及四国与其他新兴经济体的贸易投资联系;加强政策协调,推动国际货币金融体系改革。     

东亚新兴经济体经济周期特征分析

东亚新兴经济体经济周期的波动性有不断减弱的趋势,但在一些突发事件如东南亚金融危机等事件的影响下,经济波动可能会加剧。东亚经济周期波动是非对称的,且大多数国家(地区)的非对称性都表现为经济周期波动的上升阶段长于下降阶段。进入20世纪90年代,尤其是2000年后,东亚新兴经济体的经济周期波动呈现了较强的相关性和同步性,2001年以后,东亚新兴经济体与世界经济周期波动之间也呈现出较强的同步性。     

“金砖四国”经济周期互动与中国核心地位——基于SVAR的实证分析

"金砖四国"作为抗衡世界经济旧秩序的新生力量被寄予厚望,而四国之间政治经济的差异性使人们对其合作前景产生疑问。本文研究发现,差异性并没有阻碍它们成为紧密互动的群体,在中国核心的影响下四国经济周期形成高度的协同性和互动性。SVAR模型的脉冲响应分析显示,中国经济冲击效应对其他三国都有明显影响,并且冲击效应在4个国家中最强;方差分解显示,中国经济冲击分别可以解释巴西、印度、俄罗斯经济波动的60%、46%、27%。     

WELFARE GAINS OF AID INDEXATION IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES

Foreign-aid flows to poor, aid-dependent economies are highly volatile and pro-cyclical. Shortfalls in aid coincide with shortfalls in GDP and government revenues. This increases the consumption volatility in aid dependent countries, thereby causing substantial welfare losses. This paper finds that indexing aid flows to exogenous shocks, like a change in the terms of trade, can significantly improve the welfare of an aid-dependent country by lowering its output and consumption volatility. Compared to the benchmark specification with stochastic aid flows, indexation of aid flows to terms-of-trade shocks can reduce the cost of business-cycle fluctuations in the recipient country by 4% of permanent consumption. Moreover, use of indexed aid can allow donors to reduce the aid flows by 3% without lowering the level of welfare in the recipient country.     

Exchange Rate Policy in Small Rich Economies

We look at the exchange rate policy choices and outcomes for small rich economies. Small rich economies face significant policy challenges due to proportionately greater economic volatility than larger economies. These economies usually choose some form of fixed exchange rate regime, particularly in the very small economies where the per capita cost of independent monetary policy is relatively high. When such countries do choose a free or managed floating regime, they appear to derive no benefit from those regimes; their exchange rate volatility seems to rise without any significant change in fundamental economic volatility. Thus, for these countries, floating exchange rates seem to create problems for policy makers without solving any.     

生产性支出偏好与经济增长波动

文章基于我国1998-2006年的县级面板数据,分析财政支出结构对经济增长波动的影响机制。理论分析表明,我国地方政府偏好生产性支出的特点,将提高经济增长波动率;实证结果有力地论证了上述结论,即生产性公共支出占比提高10%,经济增长波动率将增加0.42%。稳健性分析发现中西部县级地区较东部地区经济增长的波动率更大。此外,我国生产性支出偏好对经济增长波动率的影响具有明显的顺周期特征,在繁荣时期,经济增长波动率的增加幅度将超过0.8%。文章的结论可为推进和完善中央与地方财政事权和支出责任划分提供参考和依据。     

The Cost of Living and Terror: Does Consumer Price Volatility Fuel Terrorism?

Do fluctuations of consumer prices prompt terrorist activity? A latent assumption among conflict scholars is that price volatilities for basic consumer goods produce hardships for people that increase popular grievances, damage government legitimacy, and raise the chances for terrorism. In this study, I use a series of regression estimations to test volatility in consumer price indices for energy, housing, and foods as predictors of domestic and transnational terrorism in a cross section of countries. I produce several findings. First, food price fluctuations are significant predictors of multiple measures of terrorism, while energy and housing prices are not. Second, rapid food price increases, not decreases, promote terrorist attacks. Third, the relationship between food price volatility and terrorism is most consistently present in nondemocratic and “hybrid” political regimes and in medium human development countries rather than in democracies or in countries characterized by very high or very low economic development.     

External Shocks and High Volatility in Consumption in Low‐Income Countries

According to the well‐known concept of consumption smoothing, the volatility of consumption is low even when income is volatile; this is confirmed by data from G7 countries. Surprisingly, however, consumption volatility in many low‐income countries is nontrivially higher than income volatility. Here I examine what causes high consumption volatility in low‐income countries. In general, volatile consumption makes consumers worse off. Therefore, understanding the causes of high consumption volatility can contribute to improving welfare in low‐income countries by suggesting measures to assist in the stabilization of consumption. Unlike much previous research, I focus on international factors when explaining high consumption volatility. The results suggest that external shocks, which are far more volatile in low‐income countries than in industrialized countries, strongly swing consumption. By capturing these mechanisms, the model I use successfully accounts for consumption volatility's differences between the sample low‐income country and sample industrialized country.     

Beliefs,Economic Volatility,and Redistributive Preferences Across Developing Countries

Beliefs about social competition affect redistributive demands and the responsibility assigned to government regarding public provisions. Given the strong link between beliefs and the extent of support for social protection, it is important to explain the cross‐country differences. The paper analyzes the factors that are crucial in explaining redistributive demands across developing countries with a special emphasis on beliefs about social competition. While ideas about luck versus effort in determining economic prospects are explanatory in every country, our findings also suggest that in societies with high economic volatility the role of beliefs is amplified. Vast fluctuations in economic performance fuel the opinion that economic failure is a result of systemic characteristics, and individuals are not necessarily held fully responsible for their material faiths in such settings. Therefore, government is assigned a greater role in basic provisioning.     

人口流动管制与中国宏观经济波动——基于异质性技能视角分析

人口流动是我国经济的热点问题之一，那么人口流动管制对我国宏观经济波动有什么样的影响?文章在标准RBC一般均衡模型中引入了异质性高低技能劳动，考察了人口流动管制对宏观经济波动的影响。研究发现：（1）劳动人口流动管制对总产出和总消费都有负向影响，会增加低技能工资，降低高技能工资；（2）资本质量冲击、政府购买冲击不仅会使消费和工资水平下降，同时也会造成福利下降，其中单位政府购买冲击会使居民福利下降最大，低技能总福利损失大于高技能总福利损失；（3）通过方差分解发现人口流动冲击能解释产出波动的7.83%和投资波动的5.60%，同时还发现随着经济中高技能比重加大，单位人口流动负冲击对社会福利损失越大。文章基于人口流动管制异质性视角研究得出流动人口管制不利于经济增长和社会总福利，为我国流动人口研究提供了新的研究视角。     

金砖四国服务贸易竞争力及其与发达国家的比较

文章对金砖四国服务贸易及行业结构竞争力进行了分析,并将金砖四国与服务贸易领先的发达国家进行了比较。研究发现,金砖四国作为一个整体服务贸易不断增长,但与服务贸易领先的国家和地区相比较还处于相对落后的状态,服务贸易竞争力普遍低于世界平均水平,除印度外,其他三国的现代服务贸易更是处于较低水平。因此,金砖四国应当通过大力培养从事服务业的专业人才以及建立促进服务业发展的制度环境等措施,提升服务贸易尤其是现代服务贸易的竞争力水平。     

Exchange rate regimes and real exchange rate volatility: Does inflation targeting help or hurt?

This paper revisits the comparison of the effects of inflation targeters versus hard fixers and intermediate exchange rate regimes. In particular, we are interested in exploring the impact of inflation targeting (IT) on real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility for a panel of 62 developing countries over the period 2006–2012. We also analyze the impact of IT regimes on REER in terms of its two component parts, i.e. relative tradable prices across countries as well as sectoral prices of tradables and nontradables within countries. The paper accounts for self-selection concerns regarding policy adoption and examines the effects of commodity exports and foreign exchange intervention. Notably, IT regimes seem to have experienced greater REER volatility, largely driven by external prices in developed countries. For developing countries, IT regimes show no difference in REER volatility, though there is some evidence that they have lower volatility in internal prices.