基于人民币国际化进程中人民币离岸市场的有序建立

一、人民币离岸市场的含义和作用 人民币国际化进程包括人民币跨境贸易结算、人民币跨境投融资、人民币成为国际储备货币等递进的几个阶段。人民币在国际化进程中充当国际结算货币、国际投资货币和国际储备货币。 国际结算货币：推进跨境贸易人民币结算和跨境直接投资人民币结算,使人民币成为国际结算货币;国际投资货币：全面推进国际资本的双向流动,实现人民币在资本项目下完全可兑换,使人民币成为国际投资货币;国际储备货币：增强中国的综合国力,推进人民币利率和汇率市场化,逐步使人民币成为国际储备货币,实现人民币国际化。     

人民币跨境结算与人民币国际化本质差异与联系

从20世纪末人民币的跨境流通到2009年我国政府正式启动跨境贸易人民币结算试点的10年间,传递出人民币国际化的信息目标.国际贸易伙伴对该国货币的需求度和信任度是一国货币国际化的重要前提条件.随着后国际金融危机造成的美元结算货币汇率波动幅度的加大,我国国际收支顺差跃居世界第一,促成人民币世界地位大大提升,贸易伙伴国在与我国的贸易往来中纷纷接收人民币作为结算货币.但是,人民币境外的流通并不等于人民币已经国际化了,国际贸易中的人民币结算与人民币国际化既有本质差异又有不可分割的本质联系.     

人民币国际化的现状和展望

2009年7月,中国当局允许在跨境贸易中使用人民币结算。之后跨境贸易人民币结算量迅速增长,可以说人民币的国际化迈出了一大步。但就目前来看,人民币结算仅限于经常项目和一部分资本项目,尽管人民币交易在香港已较自由,但达到国际化程度还尚须时日。中国当局允许跨境贸易人民币结算的目的之一是摆脱过度依赖美元。在人民币完全实现国际化之前,推动货币多元化是一种次善之策,而日中间贸易结算使用日元对两国也是一种选择。     

论人民币国际化的两难选择

中国依靠引进外资成功实现了资本转移型经济崛起。尽管从长期来看,中国经济的崛起要求人民币成为国际货币,但是,就短期而言,作为人民币国际化必要条件的资本项目开放,有可能通过对汇率的影响,削弱中国经济崛起的潜力,从而削弱人民币国际化的基础。鉴于这一可能性,中国不得不推后资本项目的开放时间,这一选择必然会延迟人民币国际化进程。以上矛盾构成了中国在经济崛起和人民币国际化问题上面临的两难选择。以上矛盾也反映在人民银行的人民币国际化政策上。一方面,鉴于经济崛起对人民币国际化的要求,人民银行正在积极推进跨境贸易人民币结算;但是,另一方面,为了保持汇率稳定和顺利推进资本转移型经济崛起,人民银行又不得不严格限制资本项下的人民币交易。这一政策表明,中国推进的人民币国际化战略是渐进式、局部国际化战略,这一战略决定了人民币国际化是一个渐进的过程。     

人民币国际化的经济发展效应及其存在的问题

人民币跨境贸易结算试点五年来,人民币国际化取得了显著的成就,在促进中国对外贸易发展、深化国内金融改革、推动金融外交以及国际货币体系改革方面都发挥了积极的作用。然而,在人民币国际化进程中也出现了一系列问题,如"两个市场、两种价格"引发的跨境套利、人民币海外存量持续增加、离岸人民币市场的建设布局以及人民币国际化的适度规模问题。在下一步推进人民币国际化的进程中,应当加快国内的金融市场化改革,鼓励国内企业对外直接投资,完善离岸人民币市场建设,并且合理定位人民币国际化目标。     

人民币国际化：现状、挑战与展望

自2009年7月跨境贸易人民币结算试点正式启动以来,人民币在全球贸易和金融中的作用进一步得到提升,人民币国际化已取得良好开端并呈现快速、健康发展的趋势。本文介绍了人民币国际化的现状,分析了人民币走向国际化所面临的挑战,阐述了推进人民币国际化的原则和设想。     

跨境贸易以人民币结算:路径选择与风险

跨境贸易以人民币结算是人民币国际化的基石,本文重点分析了对外贸易结算货币的不同组合及其对贸易差额的影响,对现阶段中国跨境贸易结算货币的特征进行了讨论。研究发现,中国政府大力推进跨境贸易以人民币作为结算货币,在进口方面将使得国内的进口企业无法利用人民币升值减少实际支出。在出口方面,人民币结算比重的扩大将减缓外汇储备的增长速度,但与保出口的宏观经济目标相冲突,同时这一政策导向对中国企业的出口竞争力也提出了更大的挑战。     

后金融危机时代跨境贸易人民币结算的原因与意义分析

本文主要分为四个部分：第一部分主要介绍了跨境贸易人民币结算的基本概念和相关时代背景和历史机遇;第二部分分析了选择在后金融危机时代开展跨境贸易人民币结算的四点主要原因;第三部分详细阐述了跨境贸易人民币结算的三点重要意义;第四部分对人民币国际化进行了展望。     

人民币资本项目跨境交易政策研究

目前,我国经济持续快速发展,经济进一步对外开放且国际收支状况良好并拥有充实的外汇储备,一系列条件表明逐步实现人民币自由兑换是大势所趋,也是国际国内经济形势变化产生的客观要求。在实施人民币自由兑换的进程中,如何实现人民币资金的跨境交易显然是非常重要及必要的前提。2009年4月,国家决定在一些地区开展人民币跨境贸易结算试点改革,正式拉开了人民币迈向国际化的序幕。随着贸易项下人民币结算的逐步开展和不断完善,推进人民币资本项目跨境交易也应尽快提上日程。     

最大债权国困境与人民币国际化关系研究

对外汇储备额居世界首位的中国而言,除美国国债外,并无其它合适的投资形式可以满足中国外汇储备管理要求,中国成为美国国债的最大持有国是一种无奈的选择。中国因此陷入了最大债权国困境,增持、减持左右为难。解决最大债权国困境的金融策略在于人民币国际化,跨境贸易人民币结算走出了正确一步,但需解决境外人民币供给与需求意愿的现实障碍,加快人民币国际化进程。     

Renminbi Internationalization： Progress, Prospect and Comparison

Using principal component analyses, this paper constructs two internationalization indices for the renminbi (RMB) and 32 other major currencies. We find that the RMB's currency internationalization degree index (CIDI) is still low, and far behind the 4 most important international currencies. In 2009, it was ranked 18th among all important international currencies. However, in terms of the currency internationalization prospect index (CIPI), the RMB has remained the world's fifth highest since 2006. Although it is still far behind the US dollar and the euro, surpassing the ranking of the yen and the pound is possible in the near future. The dramatic difference in the ranking between the CIDI and the CIPI is a result of China's tight capital account control, the usage continuity of international currency due to network externalities, and the narrow foreign exchange and imperfect financial markets. Hence, to a large degree, the RMB's potential as an international currency depends on China's capital account liberalization.     

人民币国际化的发展目标与策略分析

伴随着中国一系列政策的出台,人民币国际化已经悄然启动.在当今的国际政治经济背景下,人民币国际化只能依靠中国经济与金融的强大,而高端货币是人民币国际化的终极目标.目前,人民币国际化还缺乏两个最重要的微观基础:中国外贸的自主优势与中资银行的广泛国际存在.稳步推进人民币国际化,需要做好以下几件事:短期内尽快出台人民币国际化的官方蓝图,中长期内稳步构架微观基础、促进宏观经济尤其是人民币币值的国内稳定.     

Renminbi Internationalization in the New Normal: Progress,Determinants and Policy Discussions

In the present paper we explore the internationalization of the renminbi with reference to the experiences of other monetary powers, and discuss its determinants, prospects and implications for China's development in the “new normal.” Specifically, after summarizing the major progress made thus far, we conduct a regression analysis, showing that economic size and financial conditions are significant determinants of the international currency status, while inertia and other unobserved factors also play important roles. These empirical findings enable us to undertake a scenario analysis focusing on the renminbi's potential to become a global reserve currency. Based on this quantitative research, we then revisit China's policy initiatives designed to promote its currency overseas. In our view, the internationalization of the renminbi, along with financial deepening and liberalization, should be regarded as a means to achieve China's goal of reaching a more sustainable and balanced model of development.     

Renminbi internationalization as a response to the global imbalance

The build-up of huge foreign exchange reserve makes China a net creditor and also brings in significant challenges to the Chinese economy. Considering the internationalization of the renminbi as China’s response to the global imbalance, this paper analyzes the effect of renminbi internationalization on the formation of reserves and compares its benefits and costs in rebalancing China’s external position with those of outward direct investment. It assesses the current progress in the practice of using the renminbi in cross-border trade settlement and in the development of the offshore renminbi market. It further examines the possibility of the renminbi serving as a global reserve currency in the future.     

Renminbi in Ordinary Economies: A Demand‐side Study of Currency Globalization

Most studies of renminbi internationalization focus on the supply side, by examining China's own economic and political conditions. In contrast, this study addresses the demand side of renminbi internationalization, by providing an in‐depth analysis of renminbi use in ordinary foreign economies from both economic and political perspectives, with a particular focus on South Korea, China's next‐door neighbor. The study finds that sustainable indigenous market forces facilitating renminbi use in South Korea remain weak, despite the country's close economic ties with China. This research also shows, however, that the Korean Government has itself recently been able, through its policy measures, to generate new domestic support for greater use of the renminbi. These findings ultimately highlight the significant impact on the internationalization of a currency of the politics in the foreign countries using it.     

Geographic Spread of Currency Trading: The Renminbi and Other Emerging Market Currencies

This paper studies the ongoing diffusion of renminbi (RMB) trading across the globe, the first of such research of an international currency. It analyses the distribution in offshore RMB trading in 2013 and 2016 using comprehensive data from the Triennial Central Bank Survey of foreign exchange markets. In 2013, Asian centers favored by the policy of RMB internationalization had disproportionate shares in global RMB trading. Over the following three years, RMB trading seemed to converge to the spatial pattern of all currencies, with a half‐life of seven to eight years. The previously most traded emerging market currency, the Mexican peso, shows a similar pattern, although it is converging to the global norm more slowly. Three other emerging market currencies show a qualitatively similar evolution in the geography of their offshore trading. Overall, the RMB's internationalization is tracing an arc from the influence of administrative measures to the working of market forces.     

Renminbi Going Global

The present paper evaluates the international status of the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), by examining its use in the global market. Specifically, the discussion focuses on the recent developments of RMB trading in the global foreign exchange market, cross‐border trade settlement in RMB, the Hong Kong offshore market and China's policies relating to the RMB. The evidence suggests that the use of the RMB overseas, especially in trade financing and in the off‐shore market, has increased rapidly in recent years. However, compared with the size of the Chinese economy, the current scale of the use of the RMB is quite small. Although the RMB has great potential to become an international currency, its acceptance in the global economy is affected by both economic and political factors. Attaining a fully fledged international RMB is still a distant goal.     

The rise of Renminbi in Asia: Evidence from Network Analysis and SWIFT dataset

The rise of Renminbi (RMB) is one of the significant changes of the international monetary system since the 2008 global financial crisis. Through its economic influence in trade and direct investment, China has promoted the international use of RMB in both the global market and the regional market of East Asia. This paper documents the progress of RMB internationalization with the settlement currency information from the SWIFT dataset. Specifically, we conduct a network analysis to study the spillover effects among USD, EUR, GBP, JPY and RMB. From October 2010 to February 2018, the influence of RMB is found to be minimal in the global market, but dominant within ASEAN+3, especially for transactions related with real economy. These results indicate that RMB has become an influential regional currency, but it remains far from a truly international currency with global prominence.     

Will the renminbi become a world currency?

China has emerged as a major power in the world economy, so it seems natural to consider whether its currency will also have a major role. At present the renminbi is not used internationally. We look at the factors that contribute to the international use of currencies, and focus on the aspects of China's financial system that would have to change before the renminbi emerged as an important regional or world currency. Even with significant reforms, two questions would remain: whether the authorities would want to encourage its international use, and whether an economy with substantial party control could gain international acceptance for its currency.