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国际金融学会(IIF)6月1日预测,2011年全球资本将有10410亿美元流向新兴经济体,2012年将达10560亿美元,中国是最大的国际资本净流入目的地,约占新兴经济体吸引资本总量的1/4。新兴经济体如何应对国际跨境资本流动?采取何种政策工具有效实施资本流动管制?中国采取何种平衡框架应对资本流动? 相似文献
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2013年5月以来,新兴市场货币掀起一轮又一轮的贬值浪潮,股市债市也难逃厄运,资本大量外流,究其原因,一是美联储量化宽松政策的退出预期及退出政策的实施;二是2012年以来部分新兴经济体经济开始下滑,打压了投资者信心,加上新兴经济体自身发展中存在的一系列问题,提升了新兴市场的风险预期;三是后国际金融危机时代,新兴经济体的资本流动呈现出新特点,导致其金融市场的波动加剧。对此,新兴经济体应采取多种措施应对,以防范货币金融危机的发生。 相似文献
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随着全球浮动汇率体系的建立以及各国金融自由化政策的实施,资本的大规模跨境流动已成为全球金融体系最重要的特征。资本流动的顺周期性极大地增加了新兴经济体宏观经济风险管理的复杂性,并对货币汇率体系和金融稳定产生了现实的影响。 相似文献
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随着全球浮动汇率体系的建立以及各国金融自由化政策的实施,资本的大规模跨境流动已成为全球金融体系最重要的特征。资本流动的顺周期性极大地增加了新兴经济体宏观经济风险管理的复杂性,并对货币汇率体系和金融稳定产生了现实的影响。 相似文献
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国际资本流动周期特征及其在华走向分析 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
随着全球化程度加深,寻求共同利益成为国际经济活动的主导,国际资本流动的不确定性日益增强。如何看待美国“9·11”事件后全球资本流动的新趋势成为一个重要议题。本文对资本流动的周期与主体特征进行了考察,并对其在华、在沪走向的特征与趋势进行了初步分析和预测。通过分析,我们发现尽管国际直接投资总量减少,但发达国家与发展中国家之间比重相对稳定,发展中国家对外资本输出开始缓慢增长。随着国际资本全球投资流向区位的调整,在华外资走向出现多样化的流动模式,且独资倾向增强。这对中国利用外资的政策与方式形成了一种新的挑战与机遇。 相似文献
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近年来,以政策、经济和金融为代表的宏观不确定性问题日益突出,这可能是国际资本流动极端波动的重要驱动因素.基于此,文章以1995~2018年22个发达经济体和18个新兴与发展中经济体为研究样本,在鉴别跨境资本流动急停和外逃事件以及度量政策、经济和金融不确定性基础上,运用面板Probit模型计量分析了全球层面和国家层面的宏... 相似文献
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《世界经济研究》2013,(8)
本文分析美国、中国、日本、欧元区及英国等G20五个系统重要性经济体宏观政策溢出效应。研究表明,美元指数与大宗商品价格具有显著的负向关系,影响美元指数的美国量化宽松等货币政策将影响大宗商品价格。主要国际货币发行国基础货币总和与资本跨境流动具有显著的正向关系,美联储、欧洲央行等量化宽松政策对资本跨境流动尤其是流入新兴经济体的资本产生较强溢出效应。同时,发达经济体占据产业链高端而通过产业链条对国际贸易形成溢出效应。另一方面,中国经济通过总量扩张、外汇储备资产积累及生产链条等渠道对大宗商品价格、国际金融市场及国际贸易产生溢出效应。为此,各国应进一步加强国际协调,降低系统重要性经济体宏观经济政策负面溢出效应。 相似文献
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资本约束的经济发展效应一直是学术界争论的焦点,在经济增长乏力期,跨境资本"紧箍咒"是否有利于实现经济韧性,这是一个亟待研究的课题。文章基于全球价值链视角,实证考察了32个新兴经济体国家的资本约束政策对实现经济韧性的影响,并解构了全球价值链嵌入的门限效应特征。研究发现,资本约束与全球价值链嵌入的交互项对经济韧性的偏效应并不显著,其原因是受到了价值链分工的双重门槛效应影响。在此门槛效应下,随着全球价值链嵌入度的提高,资本约束对经济韧性的正效应逐步被弱化。当前新兴经济体正面临价值链底端锁定问题,价值链参与度与地位指数均处于低水平,在突围被"俘获"与"压榨"的底端价值链的同时,实现经济可持续发展,资本约束将成为重要发力点。 相似文献
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汇率问题一直是影响国际资本特别是国际短期资本流动的重要问题。20世纪90年代以来,国际短期资本流动的速度不断加快,流动量也不断增加;国际短期资本的重要活动场所越来越倾向于发展中国家的新兴经济体;我国加入WTO后,国际资本尤其是国际短期资本的流动对我国金融经济的影响越来越大,选择合适的人民币汇率制度会减轻国际短期资本流动对我国的冲击。人民币汇率制度选择的长期目标是建立浮动汇率制,近期目标和现实选择是人民币汇率目标区。 相似文献
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本文试图从博弈的角度分析经济全球化条件下跨国公司在华战略演变与中国外资政策调整之间的动态关系。通过回顾中国从第一阶段吸收港澳台资本到第二阶段吸收大型跨国公司到第三阶段跨国公司在华大规模开拓市场的整个过程,本文提出改革和开放双轮驱动是中国吸引外部资本要素流入和集聚的主要原因。在此基础上本文指出,新阶段中国将在科学发展观的指导下,更多地通过制度优化来创造吸引外部资本要素流入的经济环境和市场环境,实施中国与跨国公司的互利共赢。 相似文献
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尽管FDI对中国经济增长的贡献是有目共睹的,但随着进入规模的扩大和领域的放宽,它所带来的问题也日渐突出,面对开放近30年的中国经济实力和国际地位发生显著变化的今天,如何看待FDI对转型期中国未来经济发展的影响?中国经济未来增长的动力主要来源于民族资本还是FDI?本文基于非参数方法双产出模型,在对转型期中国民族资本与FDI企业生产效率测度的基础上,具体研究其生产资源配置效率与技术效率。研究结果表明,民族资本的效率优于FDI,可见,民族资本是推动转型期中国未来经济持续高效增长的主要动力。这就意味着,中国今后应进一步加大力度培育民族资本,使民族资本更好地发挥促进转型期中国经济持续增长的动力作用;同时,对外引资政策应着重FDI的质量与效率而非数量。 相似文献
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Despite an emerging and interesting literature on the pecking order of capital flows that might arise from asymmetric information and financing constraints, the dynamics of the interactions between the various components of capital flows, namely FDI, portfolio equity, portfolio debt and bank flows appear a little under-researched. This paper presents an empirical examination of this issue for a sample of East Asian countries – looking only at the inflows of capital – by asking the following questions: Are the respective components of capital flows substitutes or complements? Does one type of capital flow enhance or inhibit the others? Is this effect mitigated or exacerbated during crises? What effect does the volatility of each of the components of flows have on the level of each flow? The policy implications of this analysis can be viewed in terms of countries financial liberalisation policies. If two types of flows are substitutes, then a policy of liberalising, or indeed restricting, one type of flow may actually crowd out the other. This may well be an unintended consequence of a country's financial liberalisation policy. 相似文献
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Hermann Sintim-Aboagye Chandana Chakraborty Serapio Byekwaso 《Atlantic Economic Journal》2017,45(4):485-496
Utilizing time series data for a panel of 22 emerging countries and applying Granger causality tests, this paper extends the relationship between central bank independence (CBI) and uncertainties of inflation by including the phenomena of exchange rates and foreign capital flows. There are two specific objectives of this investigation. The first objective is to see whether uncertainty of inflation induces volatility of exchange rates, and vice versa, under differing degrees of CBI. The second objective is to explore whether the dynamics of the former relationship influence foreign capital flows in turn and, if so, whether the extent of CBI plays any role in shaping that influence. The period of study spans the years 1968 through 2013. Conditional variances for inflation and exchange rates define proxies for uncertainties of inflation and exchange rates in the empirical analysis. Additionally, annual inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) provide measures for foreign capital flows in the analysis. Results of causality tests for high and low CBI country subgroups show interesting differences. For the high CBI countries, uncertainty of inflation and uncertainty of exchange rates do not share any causal relationship whatsoever between them. However, a weak link runs from FDI to uncertainties of inflation in the long run. This may be indicative of the disciplined monetary policy and tamed inflation in these countries. Contrastingly, for the low CBI countries, there is strong evidence of causal links running from uncertainties of inflation to uncertainties of exchange rates on the one hand and to FDI flows on the other. In addition, there is indication of a bi-directional causal link between FDI flows and exchange rates for these countries. 相似文献
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Forget Mingiri Kapingura 《Development Southern Africa》2018,35(4):554-568
The importance of foreign capital in the domestic economy cannot be underestimated as it bridges the gap between domestic capital demand and supply. Given this background the paper studies the relationship between the different types of foreign capital flows in the Southern Africa Development Region (SADC) region – foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, cross border bank flows (CBF), overseas development assistance (ODA) – and domestic savings and investment, employing the panel cointegration test and the dynamic ordinary least squares method (DOLS). The empirical results reveal that there is a strong positive relationship between domestic investment and domestic savings, FDI and remittances. These findings indicate that FDI remittances help in overcoming the limits on the domestic capital formation in the SADC region through permitting a rate of investment which is in excess of that which can be generated by domestic savings. Important policy implications on attracting foreign capital flows are discussed in the paper. 相似文献
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I. Introduction Foreign direct investment (FDI) from ASEAN into China is now approximately fifty times as much as it was in 1990 (Table 1). China’s national statistics show that ASEAN FDI in China is comparable to that from the top five FDI outflow countries: the USA, Japan, the UK, France and Germany. The cumulative amount of China’s actually utilized FDI from ASEAN during 1994–2004 reached US$33.73 bn, which exceeded the cumulative amount of China’s actually utilized FD… 相似文献
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外商投资对中国出口竞争力的影响:实证分析 总被引:22,自引:0,他引:22
随着我国利用外商投资规模不断扩大,外商投资对我国出口总量扩张、结构调整以及出口竞争优势的形成产生了不可忽视的影响。本文对外资进入条件下,中国出口竞争力的变动进行全面深入的实证分析。在此基础上,提出了相关政策法规的调整思路,以促使外商投资对我国出口竞争力提升发挥更积极的作用。 相似文献
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Huizhong Li Ping Huang Jialun Li 《中国与世界经济(英文版)》2007,15(1):87-95
Starting from the contradiction between China's sustained growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflow and deterioration of the terms of trade, this paper analyzes the characteristics of FDI sectoral structure since the 1990. Moreover, considering the international market competitive environment, this paper gives a concrete analysis of the influence mechanism and concludes that the flowing of FDI into labor‐intensive export sectors caused the deterioration of China's terms of trade. To improve its terms of trade, China needs to direct FDI inflow into capital‐ and technology‐intensive sectors and service sectors. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng) 相似文献