TPP语境下版权保护期限的经济分析

在TPP影响日益扩大的情况下,中国据其采取相应的对策已经不可避免。由于美国主导下的TPP对知识产权领域的重视以及美国和中国在版权保护期限上的明显差异,中国在TPP语境下面临着是否延长版权保护期限的困境。文章基于预期效用函数理论,建立了版权保护期限对社会总体福利产生影响的线性模型,并据此对不同的版权保护期限产生的经济影响进行相应的分析。根据分析结果和现实的版权保护期限互相印证,可以发现过长和过短的版权保护期限均会损害社会总体福利,而且欠发达社会的最佳版权保护期限要短于发达社会。因此,中国作为发展中国家的一员,虽然在经济建设上已经取得了相当的成就,但在创意产业方面仍然落后于欧美日等创意产业发达的国家,应当采取的最佳版权保护期限肯定要低于欧美日等发达国家。中国不能为了加入WTO而盲目迎合美国的版权保护期限标准,而必须根据自身的经济利益确定是最适当的版权保护期限。     

A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper defines the concepts of indirect and direct risk premium effects and analyzes their properties in an exchange rate model. In the model, these effects are endogenously determined in a rational expectations equilibrium. For the effect of an interest rate shock, they have the opposite signs and the indirect risk premium effect can dominate the direct risk premium effect under reasonable parameters. This means that domestic short‐term bonds and foreign bonds are complements in the model even though domestic long‐term bonds and foreign bonds are substitutes. This model, focusing on the indirect risk premium effect and on the term structure of interest rates, can be combined with a small sample bias approach to explain stylized facts about the forward premium anomaly, which is found for short‐term interest rates, but not for long‐term interest rates.     

Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data

How do short‐ and long‐term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962–2018. The state‐of‐the‐art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma and Ng (2019) is found to predict movements in interest rates at different maturities. In particular, an increase in financial uncertainty is found to trigger a negative and significant response of both short‐ and long‐term interest rates. The response of the short end of the yield curve (i.e., of short‐term interest rates) is found to be stronger than that of the long end (i.e., of long‐term ones). In other words, a financial uncertainty shock causes a temporary steepening of the yield curve. This result is consistent, among other interpretations, with medium‐term expectations of a recovery in real activity after a financial uncertainty shock.     

What is Socioeconomics? An Overview of Theories,Methods, and Themes in the Field

The term socioeconomics is widely used, even though it is often connoted to quite divergent understandings about what it actually describes. It sometimes appears as an umbrella term for a range of quite successful but diverse and occasionally antagonistic approaches that cannot easily be combined. Sometimes it is applied to rather specific scientific endeavors. This paper is not conceptual, i.e., it concludes with some moderate considerations about optional ways to advance a consolidation of socioeconomics only. In first instance, it is intended to provide some orientation in the diverse field and discusses distinctions that can be made between major theoretical and methodological currents, subject areas, and understandings of the purpose of socioeconomics.     

Combining minimum wage and exchange rate policy to release the external constraint on growth

In this article we analyse the combination of a minimum wage and a devaluation/depreciation so as to release the external constraint on growth. The policy maker aims at achieving both balanced trade and higher growth. These may be reached by devaluating the domestic currency, which however supports traditional industries characterized by high price elasticity and low income elasticity of demand. The release of the external constraint in the short term then yields a stronger constraint in the longer term. If traditional industries are unskilled and labour‐intensive, the setting of a minimum wage distorts the specialization towards sectors with high demand growth. Devaluation/depreciation and minimum wage may thus be combined to release both the short term and longer term external constraint. We determine the condition for such a policy to be efficient. This combined policy must come with an educational policy that supports skill upgrading. It is typically tailored to ‘advanced emerging countries’ which aim at changing their specialization without slowing their growth.     

Correcting for the endogeneity of pro-environment behavioral choices in contingent valuation

In contingent valuation studies, observed behavioral choices often enter as independent variables in the willingness to pay function. However, these variables may be endogenously determined when the error term in the behavioral model is correlated with the error term in the willingness to pay model. We investigate the effects of correcting for the endogeneity of a variable, namely membership status in environmental organizations that proxies unobservable characteristics of the respondents. Jointly modeling the membership variable and the willingness to pay response yields an estimate for the effect of the former that contradicts previous findings but is intuitive and agrees with theoretical expectations.     

Productivity growth in east Asia: a reappraisal

In recent years there has been considerable disagreement over the extent to which productivity growth has accounted for the success of the east Asian economies. Empirical evidence, based on forms of growth accounting or direct estimation of a production function, is inconclusive so that the debate appears to be at a stalemate. This article applies an alternative approach, using the Malmquist productivity indices, to investigate the contribution of productivity to the longer term growth. The results support the view that over the longer term, the east Asian economies were input driven but interesting differences arise between countries when shorter periods are analysed.     

The Volatility of Real Exchange Rates: The Australian Case

This paper presents an empirical investigation into factors underlying the real U.S.-Australian dollar exchange rate. We find that the random walk model of the real exchange rate can be improved by various GARCH specifications. In particular, we find that the estimated risk premium from a GARCH-M model is not robust to model specification. When the model is extended to include the $US/Yen real exchange rate and an index of commodity prices the GARCH-in-mean term is no longer significant. The additional variables seem to account for the increased volatility of the real exchange rate in the post-1983 period. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that changes in the Australian term spread and US-Australian interest rate differential have little or no explanatory power for the real exchange rate.     

短贷长投对企业创新可持续性支持的实证研究

基于我国特殊的制度环境,研究短贷长投对我国企业创新活动的影响。研究表明,短贷长投作为一种替代性融资方式,对企业创新能力产生了显著的抑制效应,并且对不同产权性质和规模的企业而言,这种抑制效应具有差异性。进一步的影响机制研究表明,短贷长投会阻碍人力资本投入和R&D投入,影响企业创新能力积累。另外,就短贷长投对创新与企业成长两者关系影响进行研究,发现短贷长投弱化了创新与企业成长之间的敏感性,进一步证明了短贷长投负面效应的存在。最后,考察了外部金融环境的影响,发现货币政策、地区金融发展水平等因素均能显著影响短贷长投对企业创新能力的抑制效应。     

The tax–spending nexus: evidence from Romania using wavelet analysis

This article investigates the relationship between government revenue and expenditure in Romania between 1991 and 2015 using the wavelet approach. The article presents detailed information for different sub-periods and frequencies, emphasising the lead–lag nexus between variables under cyclical and anti-cyclical shocks. The main findings show that using individual taxation techniques under structural reforms should control short-term budget deficits. Separately, when an economic crisis arises, expenditure adjustment is a more appropriate fiscal instrument. In the medium and long term, the taxation system for individuals is recommended to be used to control for budgetary deficits during crisis. At the same time, in the medium term, government expenditures also represent a suitable policy choice.     

知识资本、组织性格与组织绩效的结构方程分析

作为隐性资产,知识资本和组织性格在企业价值创造过程中起着重要作用,也以新形态诠释着当今企业持续竞争优势的源泉。以2013-2015年沪深中小板233家企业为样本,构建结构方程模型,对知识资本、组织性格与组织绩效的关系进行了实证分析。结果显示：知识资本对企业的短期与长期绩效直接产生作用,同时,通过企业组织性格间接作用于企业短期绩效,除此之外,企业组织长期绩效的根本来源是知识资本的创造与积累。     

The impact of minimum wages and foreign domestic workers in Taiwan

The purpose of setting the minimum wage is mainly to protect the rights and interests of vulnerable workers and to enhance productivity of labour. In this paper, an attempt has been made to explore the effect of the upwards adjustment of the minimum wage in Taiwan on the inflation rate, the unemployment rate, labour productivity, economic growth and other macroeconomic variables by means of an analysis of empirical data using a structural vector auto‐regressive model. The findings of the paper show that upwards adjustment of the minimum wage in Taiwan will not intensify the unemployment rate. On the contrary, it will help to promote labour productivity to an extent that will have a positive effect on the economic growth rate. In addition, this paper investigates, long‐term care system should incorporate the foreign domestic worker labour pool, which could provide the additional personnel necessary for the nation's long‐term care. Minimum wage should apply to foreign domestic workers, and foreign domestic workers should not be treated as a separate group of workers in minimum wage policy.     

Macroeconomic performance and convergence in OECD countries

This paper investigates the robustness of the correlation between growth and a set of variables which comprises accumulation rates in human and physical capital and medium term macroeconomic indicators in OECD countries. We include these variables as additional regressors in the standard growth equation that comes from the human capital-augmented Solow model. Our results show that variables related to medium term macroeconomic performance affect both growth and convergence. In some periods these variables even outperform the explanatory power of the conventional growth variables such as the accumulation rates. Our results also suggest that it is difficult to analyse the contribution to growth of any particular macroeconomic indicator in an isolated way. Rather, these effects should be studied in a framework that accounts for the macroeconomic performance of a country.     

Divestiture of Generation Assets in the Electricity Pool of England and Wales: A Computational Approach to Analyzing Market Power

The task of developing an adequate modeling approach to understanding strategic behavior in competitive electricity markets is still a major open research question. In this paper, we develop an based on computational modeling and simulation. We apply the new approach to analyzing the second round (1999) of capacity divestiture proposals, which the government and regulatory authorities in England and Wales required in order to improve the efficiency of the wholesale power market. In this context, we suggest that, for a second time, the level of market power may be underestimated and that although the proposed amount of divestiture is substantial, it may still be insufficient to avoid the need for further regulatory controls in the short term.     

Financial Openness and Growth: Short‐run Gain,Long‐run Pain?*

No empirical evidence has yet emerged for the existence of a robust positive relationship between financial openness and economic growth. This paper argues that a key reason for the elusive evidence is the presence of a time‐varying relationship between openness and growth: countries tend to gain in the short term, immediately following capital account liberalization, but may not grow faster or even experience temporary growth reversals in the medium to long term. The paper finds substantial empirical evidence for the existence of such an intertemporal tradeoff for 45 industrialized and emerging market economies. The acceleration of growth immediately after liberalization is found to be often driven by an investment boom and a surge in portfolio and debt inflows. By contrast, the quality of domestic institutions, the size of FDI inflows and the sequencing of the liberalization process are found to be important driving forces for growth in the medium to longer term.     

从孝到养：传统法律观念的现代转变

孝在传统社会中包含养和敬两方面的内容,这是因为孝一方面来源于自然情感,另一方面又有一定的道德因素。但到了现代社会,在相当长的一段时间内,养掩盖了敬,孝也就演变成了养老,以支付赡养费为主要表现形式。随着生活水平的提高,敬的因素日益重要,不论是立法还是司法都试图解决这一问题。但是由于社会条件的变化,社会和法律的价值基础都发生改变,传统社会中孝的存在所需的道德基础转变成现代社会中的法律责任,道德性较强的敬的实现受到限制。在这种情况下,必须在进一步分析和了解传统的基础上寻求另外的解决方法,从而完成对敬的实现。     

Sentiment asset pricing model with consumption

We present an asset pricing model by incorporating investor sentiment. The sentiment equilibrium price could be decomposed to the rational term and the sentiment term, and the investor sentiment has a systematic and significant impact on the risky asset price. In the model, the sentiment term has a wealth-weighted average structure and the investor's wealth proportion could amplify the sentiment shock on the asset price. The model could offer a partial explanation of some financial anomalies in the stock market: the phenomenon of savings transfer to the stock market, pricing bubble and high volatility.     

宏观政策对我国股市影响的实证研究

本文首先对股市的政策指标进行分类 ,即分为中长期的连续性政策和短期性的离散政策事件。对于连续性政策指标 ,我们采取回归分析技术 ,构建政策综合指标曲线 ,进而分析连续性政策对股市的影响 ;对于离散的政策事件 ,则采取专门的事件研究方法 ,分析该类政策变量对股市的冲击大小。研究结果表明 ,目前的连续性政策与我国股市之间存在正相关关系 ,但其解释程度较小 ;股市运行受短期性的政策事件影响较大 ,但政策事件对股市冲击作用在逐步弱化 ,股市政策调控趋于成熟。     

The optimal use of fines and imprisonment

This paper examines the use of fines and imprisonment to deter individuals from engaging in harmful activities. These sanctions are analyzed separately as well as together, first for identical risk-neutral individuals and then for two groups of risk-neutral individuals who differ by wealth. When fines are used alone and individuals are identical, the optimal fine and probability of apprehension are such that there is some ‘underdeterrence’. If individuals differ by wealth, then the optimal fine for the high wealth group exceeds the fine for the low wealth group. When imprisonment is used alone and individuals are identical, the optimal imprisonment term and probability may be such that there is either underdeterrence or overdeterrence. If individuals differ by wealth, the optimal imprisonment term for the high wealth group may be longer or shorter than the term for the low wealth group. When fines and imprisonment are used together, it is desirable to use the fine to its maximum feasible extent before possibly supplementing it with an imprisonment term. The effects of risk aversion of these results are also discussed.