The Aggregate Behavior of Banks: A Proposal for Prudential Supervision

This study seeks to investigate a macroeconomic approach that could help bank regulators and supervisors perform their task of ensuring financial stability. To achieve this, an attempt is made to explain the behavior of banks by analyzing aggregate time series of credit lending and deposit-taking, which are the variables involved in financial intermediation. This article's main contribution is to present evidence of banks’ behavior in their role as financial intermediaries, in terms of the performance of the variables that represent their credit-granting or deposit-taking decisions. For this purpose the study used a vector autoregressive model to construct impulse response functions and the Granger test. The results demonstrate the existence of bilateral causality between credit lending and deposit--taking, suggesting that banks actively manage the financial intermediation process. In addition, the results show that shocks to deposits destabilize the credit lending process, and credit supply shocks, in turn, destabilize deposit-taking. The latter result is important for understanding how financial instability can arise, and is thus relevant for the bank regulator.     

What's in a change in an industrial bond rating?

Bond quality rating changes (BQRC) for industrial bonds are analyzed using both univariate statistical methods and discriminant analysis to find significant variables and their relationship with the changes. The single most important explanatory variable is found to be the rate of return on assets (ROA), followed by the trend in the return on assets (ROATREND). The univariate analysis found six of the seven proposed explanatory variables significant beyond the 0.01 level. The two-group discriminant analysis model achieved a correct classification rate of over 77%. The paper shows how the results of the two-group discriminant analysis can be used for a three-way prediction (upgrade, downgrade, or no change of bond ratings). The results of this study show that models based on financial statement data can predict rating changes with good accuracy and therefore may be a useful tool for rating agencies, at least as an initial screening device.     

“Take it or leave it?”: Evidence on cultural differences affecting return behaviour for Gen Z

Both culture and age have a direct impact on consumers' shopping behaviour. Similarly, this paper explores consumers’ return behaviour in two different cultural contexts, China and Italy, characterized by low/high individualism vs. high/low collectivism. To this end, the research employs a qualitative approach based on semi-structured interviews collected in May and June 2020 for a sample of Generation Z consumers in China and Italy. Results show differences and similarities affecting consumers' willingness to return in the different stages of effective purchase behaviour. For instance, in the pre-purchase stage, Chinese consumers often show a limited interest in return policies since they usually prefer not to return and repurchase otherwhere the product to maximize their cost-benefit trade-off. In contrast, when retailers adopt return policies, Italian consumers are more interested in feeling protected against the risk of wrong purchases. Instead, both samples are very attentive in return and refund efficiency in the post-purchase stage, which are perceived as two discriminating factors in terms of repurchase from the same retailers.This study offers theoretical and managerial insights towards consumers' return behaviour, offering new directions for future studies.     

P2P网络借贷市场信用风险识别

近年来,P2P网络借贷市场成为我国金融领域的重灾区,各类问题层出不穷,不仅损害了投资者利益,而且严重扰乱了我国的金融秩序,深入研究P2P网络借贷市场存在的问题具有重要现实意义。P2P网络借贷市场是信息不对称最为严重的市场之一,对借款人信用风险进行识别是P2P网络借贷的关键环节。根据信用风险定价理论,借贷利率应该充分反映违约风险,通过检验借贷利率与违约风险之间的关系可以验证借贷市场信用风险识别机制的有效性。基于“人人贷”平台公开的历史交易数据对P2P网络借贷市场的信用风险识别问题进行实证研究,结果表明:借贷利率能部分反映借款人的信用风险,但在相同的利率水平下,其他指标与违约风险也存在显著性关系,表明相同的利率未对应相同的信用风险,平台的信用风险识别机制部分有效。进一步研究表明,在缺乏成熟、易用的个人征信产品的情况下,无论借款人、P2P平台,还是投资者,对信用风险影响因素的判断与实际情况都存在一定的偏差,工作经验丰富的借款人付出了过高的借贷成本,平台在判断收入对信用风险的影响方面出现了偏差,投资者则忽视了借款人学历的价值。建议打破个人征信数据壁垒,丰富个人征信产品,保护居民信用数据安全,以保障借贷市场的持续发展。     

Do Binary Collateral Outcome Variables Proxy Collateral Levels? The Case of Collateral from Start-ups and Existing SMEs

This paper is designed to test whether the factors which affect the decision to collateralise business loans affect the level of collateralisation in the same manner. If the level of collateralisation does matter, the provision of collateral becomes more than a goodwill gesture to placate banks and more a device to ameliorate the risk of lending. We use a thitherto unseen dataset from a U.K. retail bank comprising 4,618 transfers and start-ups (TS group) who applied for business loans and overdrafts between January 1998 and January 2000. The control sample comprised 9,596 existing businesses from the same period. Our unique dataset permits an analysis of this kind for the first time because it contains a continuous variable for collateral unlike previous studies. Existing businesses exhibit a higher frequency (binary outcome) and level (tobit outcome) of collateral than the businesses who are start-ups or have transferred from another bank only when distortions within the data are not controlled for. These distortions negate the value of binary collateral variables. Factors such as business type and loan purpose are useful at explaining the likelihood of a borrower having his loan collateralised and the level of collateralisation for borrowers who provided collateral or not.     

论个体网络借贷系统性风险的法律控制机制

个体网络借贷等互联网金融是金融与科技深度“联姻”的产物,其客观上潜藏着巨大的系统性风险。基于信息障碍的客观存在,个体网络借贷机构既丧失了传统民间金融的人身性信任机制,也不具备传统银行等正规金融的制度化信任机制。个体网络借贷系统性风险的影响因素主要包括技术性因素、经营性因素和制度性因素。个体网络借贷系统性风险法律控制机制的完善需要依法构建金融网络安全建设的协作机制,明确监管机构对个体网络借贷实施科技监管的可行举措,从事前事后两个环节构建风险传导管控机制,通过明确受信地位充分发挥民商法的调整功能,以软法治理提升个体网络借贷机构和行业的自律水平。     

再论中国金融体系的脆弱性

本文的目的就是通过验证我国金融体系在不完全市场的制约条件下,能否发挥"价值创造、价格发现、风险分散、流动性供给、信息生产和公司治理"这六大基本功能,以及通过进一步检验货币政策的有效性,来揭示当今中国金融体系脆弱性的表现及其症结所在.论文通过分析发现,目前影响我国金融体系"健全性"的两大基本要素是房地产价格和流动性,它们直接左右银行的信贷行为;相反,利差幅度和基础货币的调控却没有显著的制约效果.所有这些特征都恰恰反映了我国金融体系的基本功能至今为止还没得到有效的发挥.     

Do the production-based factors capture the time-varying patterns in stock returns?

As a summarization of previously suggested production-based approaches, Chen et al. (2010) propose two production-based factors. We examine whether the proposed factors explain the time-varying patterns in stock returns, captured by the common conditioning variables. With a variety of test portfolios, we find that the fitted conditional expected return (fit) is always statistically significant in the presence of the production-based factors. Moreover, when the fit is included in the analysis, the magnitude of the production-based factors becomes consistently smaller and the fit drives out the significance of the production-based factors. Our empirical results cast some doubt on the validity of the production-based model as a conditional benchmark for risk adjustment.     

投资来源国的特定因素对中国FDI的影响——以多维度要素模型为基础的实证分析

本文运用多维度要素模型检验了投资来源国的政治、经济、文化、距离等特定因素对中国直接投资的影响。实证分析结果表明,投资来源国的政治体制、经济规模、劳动力成本、借贷成本、华裔人数、与中国的距离和双边贸易流量是影响其对中国直接投资的主要因素。投资来源国的汇率只在扩展的显著性水平上是显著的,而其经济增长率在统计上却不显著。     

Empirical modeling of section 162(a) (2) tax court decisions: Identifying the location of a tax home

One-hundred Tax Court cases concerning Section 162(a) (2) were subjected to several multivariate PROBIT and discriminant analyses to determine which factors best define the location of a “tax home.” In each case, the government disagreed with the taxpayer and contended that the “tax home” was either nonexistent or was located in elsewhere. Various sensitivity analyses were performed to test model specifications regarding linear or quadratic functions, discriminant or PROBIT models, and temporal stability. A seven-variable linear discriminant model achieved an 88% Lachenbruch U classification accuracy and exhibited high stability with regard to the three sensitivity analyses. Implications for taxpayers, practitioners, legislators, and researchers are discussed.     

Securities Lending Activities in Mutual Funds and ETFs: Ethical Considerations

Securities lending has been a lucrative business for mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past decade. Unfortunately for investors, the sponsors of these funds have not been very transparent with the details of their securities lending programs, and consequently most investors in these funds are unaware of their exposure to the risks inherent in securities lending. Interestingly, most funds do not return the full profits from securities lending activities to their investors. In this paper, we examine and discuss the ethical considerations related to the securities lending activities of mutual funds and ETFs and offer a series of best practices that we believe will provide better transparency of these activities to fund investors.     

Entwicklungen am Wohnimmobilienmarkt der USA seit der Subprime-Krise

Ten years after the subprime crisis, current house prices in the United States are slightly above the peak from the preceding boom. Also due to slower dynamics of new mortgage lending, the risk build-up seems to be rather contained so far. Structural changes arise with the market increasingly split along the different steps of mortgage lending. Non-banks are gaining higher market shares for origination and servicing of mortgages. Government-supported securitizations have a dominant market position. Potential weaknesses and risk channels of the new market structure can be identified, but a serious stress test has not happened yet.     

Effect of climate-related risk on the costs of bank loans: Evidence from syndicated loan markets in emerging economies

Based on a novel dataset that combined syndicated loans originated in the emerging market economies with greenhouse gas emission intensity data of borrowers, this study examines whether and to what extent banks in these emerging markets have factored in climate transition risk in their lending decisions. On loan pricing, our results suggest that banks in these emerging markets have started to price-in climate transition risk for loans to emissions-intensive sector since the Paris Agreement. This could reflect their increased awareness of a climate-transition risk towards such firms. The extent of the transition risk premium is also found to be dependent on the environmental attitude of banks. Specifically, green banks are found to charge a higher loan spread than other banks, when lending to the same brown firm after the Paris Agreement. Apart from pricing a transition risk premium in the loan spread, we find evidence that banks may also consider imposing more stringent non-pricing contractual terms, such as shortening loan tenor and imposing collateral requirement, on brown firms especially when the associated credit risk impacts on these firms are more uncertain.     

Trustworthiness and interest rates: an empirical study of Italian SMEs

Trust is expected to reduce transaction costs and agency costs and thus influence the cost of credit for small businesses. Assessments of trustworthiness are based on the ability, benevolence and integrity of the owner manager. The study examines whether lending managers’ assessments of the trustworthiness of small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) owner managers are associated with the interest rate charged. Data were obtained from a survey of lending managers from small banks in North East Italy. Control variables and a vector of trustworthiness factors were collected on a random sample of customers, resulting in data for 365 small firms (74% response rate). Multivariate regression analyses provided evidence of a negative association between trustworthiness and interest rates. Banks, owner managers, policy makers and researchers should recognise the potential of trust to influence lending decisions and behaviour.     

The efficiency of certain speculative markets and gambler behavior

This paper tests the efficiency of the football betting market and develops a model of the determinants of the closing spread. The empirical results suggest that the football betting market is not perfectly efficient. The evidence also suggests that, contrary to previous studies, gamblers that do bet the long shots are acting as rational individuals attempting to maximize their return for a given level of risk. Finally, at least six variables were found to be statistically significant factors in determining closing spreads in the football betting market.     

Security Markets versus Bank Finance: Legal Enforcement and Investors' Protection

When minority investors’ rights are poorly protected, the ability of firms to raise equity capital is impaired, leading to less finance for new ventures. Fewer firms will be financed with outside equity, resulting in a low market capitalization relative to GNP. External funding requires easily enforceable claims such as debt or requires long‐term relationships with institutions. Provision of funding shifts from risk capital to debt, and to a predominance of intermediated over market finance. We report supporting evidence for a few countries. To measure investor protection, we use a price measure, the premium on voting stock, related to the control premium. In countries where the voting premium is large, corporate financing is dominated by bank lending and equity markets are much smaller.     

投资等待与信贷配给均衡

斯蒂格利茨和韦斯 (1 981 )认为风险高的投资项目能够承受更高的贷款利率 ,所以当银行提高贷款利率时低风险的投资项目将会退出市场 ,而银行的最优选择是施行信贷配给。如果投资者可以等待关于其项目的信息充分披露从而项目的投资成功率更高时 ,高风险的投资项目将从等待中获得较大的收益 ,并只能承受相对较低的贷款利率 ,从而信贷配给在一定程度上得到消除。     

Integrity, responsibility and affinity: three aspects of ethics in banking

Banking, in common with other areas of finance, is often considered an amoral field focused purely on risk and return. However, ethics does have an important role to play, both traditionally and as business and banking evolve. Based on a speech to a European Union conference on financing small and medium–sized enterprises (SMEs), this paper seeks to provide an overview of ethics in banking using three terms. Integrity is important to generate the trust necessary for any banking system to flourish, responsibility highlights contemporary banks' need to take into account the consequences of their lending policies, and affinity refers to a set of relatively novel ways in which depositors and borrowers can be brought closer together than they are in conventional western banking.     

An Exact Test of the Improvement of the Minimum Variance Portfolio

I propose an exact finite sample test of the risk reduction of the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio. The GMV test statistic is proportional to the reduction in the variance of the GMV portfolio and has a straightforward geometric and portfolio interpretation and complements the celebrated GRS test in Gibbons et al. (1989). In practical applications, the GMV test leads to a rejection of the null hypothesis of no improvement in the GMV portfolio more often than the GRS test rejects the null hypothesis of no improvement in the risk‐return profile of the tangent portfolio. The power of the GMV test increases with the variance reduction of the GMV portfolio. Using test asset returns scaled by predetermined predictive variables is equivalent to increasing the overall number of test assets and leads to substantial power gains.     

An Explanation of the Life Span of New French Firms

In contrast to previous studies on firm survival which tend to focus on features related to the structure of the firms and their area of activity, our aim here is to widen the perspective usually adopted in the field, taking into account a larger and more qualitative set of variables. Among these variables, features related to the individual characteristics of the entrepreneur, to the context of entrepreneurship and to the insertion in entrepreneurial networks are significant to explain the life span of new firms. The empirical material is drawn from two surveys, which provide detailed data about a group of new firms created in France in 1994 and closed down before 1997 or still running in 1997. Our empirical approach on qualitative data is based on data analysis methods (linear discriminant analysis, barycentric discriminant analysis, analysis of variance). According to the characteristics of the entrepreneur, the main explanatory factors for the survival of new firms are the fact that they are entrepreneurs who have taken over firms, that they have acquired during their previous occupational activity an experience in the same branch of activity and that they experience a successful integration into the entrepreneurial networks. These three factors show that the survival of young firms is indirectly conditioned by the existence of an initial custom, by the mastery of a job and by the know-how in the entrepreneurial function.