Competitive devaluations in commodity‐based economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group

This paper investigates whether there is an S‐curve in Colombia using bilateral and disaggregated quarterly data for the period 1991 to 2014. More precisely, the short‐run effects of a depreciation on the trade balance (TB ) are analyzed in 27 industries covered by the Pacific Alliance Group free trade agreement. The S‐curve found in sectors representing 30 percent of total industrial production suggests that in these cases competitive devaluations have a positive effect on the TB in the short run. Our findings have important policy implications: since only large competitive devaluations can restore TB equilibrium, industrial restructuring would appear to be a more sensible strategy, though this cannot be achieved in the short run and is instead a medium‐ to long‐term goal.     

The Malaysian Real Trade Balance and the Real Exchange Rate

The cointegration technique is used to examine the long‐run and short‐run relationships between the real Malaysian trade balance with the real exchange rate, domestic and world incomes. The results suggest that a real ringgit exchange rate depreciation improves the trade balance in the long run. World and domestic incomes are also found to be important determinants of trade balance. The significance of world income on trade balance indicates that Malaysia is prone to external shocks. An error‐correction model is then estimated to study the short‐run dynamics of the effects of exchange rate. The impulse response analysis shows that the effect of exchange rate on the trade balance lasts for about three years. A devaluation of ringgit will initially improve the trade balance, albeit small, after which the trade balance starts to deteriorate, and then improves again suggesting that there exists a delayed J‐curve.     

Macroeconomic policy in an output-expenditure model

This paper proposes an alternative framework for examining the international macroeconomic impact of domestic monetary and fiscal policies and focuses on the distinction between national spending and national production and the reactive behavior of foreign investors to changing external account balances. It demonstrates that under a floating exchange rate regime, monetary and fiscal policies can affect aggregate expenditure and output quite differently, with important implications for the behavior of the exchange rate, the current account balance, and national income in the short run, as well as the economy's price level in the long run. In particular, this paper predicts that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies tend to depreciate the currency and only temporarily raise gross domestic product and the current account surplus, although permanently raise the domestic price level.This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Forty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany.     

The J‐Curve: Evidence from Fiji*

This article provides new evidence on both long run and short‐run determinants of trade balance for Fiji and investigates evidence of J‐curve adjustment behaviour in the aftermath of a devaluation. We adopt a partial reduced form model that models the real trade balance directly as a function of the real exchange rate and real domestic and foreign incomes. Cointegration analysis is based on a recently developed autoregressive distributed lag approach—shown to provide robust results in finite samples. The long run elasticities are also estimated using a dynamic ordinary least squares approach and the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FM‐OLS) approach. Amongst our key results we find that there is a long‐run relationship between trade balance and its determinants. There is evidence of the J‐curve pattern; growth in domestic income affects Fiji’s trade balance adversely while foreign income improves it.     

Input-output pricing in a Keynesian model as applied to Portugal

This paper develops a Keynesian model of the Portuguese economy in which the prices of the sectors of final demand are derived from input-output relationships. This model is used for short-run simulation analysis of the Portuguese economy through 1977. It is seen that Portugal cannot simply rely on world demand for its exports to improve its balance of payments and to generate an export-led recovery. Simulation of a policy package which includes a devaluation and fiscal restraint indicates that this policy will improve the external current account and raise domestic savings.     

Sticky prices and moderate inflation

Recent evidence shows that there is great heterogeneity in the price setting frequency across sectors, and that those changing prices frequently do so even under low inflation. What happens to price setting strategies of sticky price goods under moderate inflation? We built a dataset of monthly newspaper and magazine prices for Colombia, for the period 1960–2005, an exceptional example of prolonged moderate inflation. Within this macroeconomic scenario, and the novel database, we study the frequency of price adjustment, the relative importance of time- and state-dependent theories, and their evolution as inflation declined from moderate rates to single digits.     

Public Sector Pricing,Capital Mobility and National Income: A Two‐Sector General‐Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract This paper examines the resource allocation and income effects of public‐sector pricing. During the short run, raising public‐sector prices leads to a worsening in public‐sector efficiency, causing a decline in GNP. In the intermediate run, the policy begins to improve public‐sector efficiency and, hence, increases GNP. At the outset of the transition to a steady state, the pricing policy continues to improve efficiency. Nevertheless, efficiency and GNP remain invariant across steady states in the long‐run equilibrium. The implications of the pricing policy are also discussed.     

The trade-off between real wages and employment in an open economy (Belgium)

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we discuss the nature and quantitative order of magnitude of the trade-off between real wages and employment in the small open economy Belgium. Second, we draw policy conclusions from our positive analysis, and compare income policies with alternative approaches to employment stimulation (including shorter working hours and currency depreciation).To study the trade-off between real wages and employment, we treat external balance as a binding constraint on demand management. An exogenous increase in real wages, affecting adversely the competitiveness of domestic producers on the export and import markets, impairs external balance. The impact of the wage increase on output and employment is evaluated through the reduction in domestic demand required to restore external balance.At the empirical level, we endeavour to evaluate separately the influence on exports and imports of domestic costs at unchanged capacity levels, and of capacity levels themselves. And we endeavour to evaluate the influence of real wages on capacity levels through scrapping and investment. All evaluations rely on the foreign trade equations of econometric models of the Belgian economy.The conclusions from our empirical investigation are first that estimates of the trade-off between real wages and employment in Belgium are subject to considerable imprecision; second that the short-run elasticity of employment with respect to real wages keeping capacity constant is probably quite small (like -0.2), and definitely less than unity in absolute value; third that the corresponding medium-run elasticity taking into account capacity adjustments is probably sizeable (like -2), and definitely larger than unity in absolute value; and fourth that exchange rate adjustments might not make too much difference, in either the short run or the medium run.Turning to a discussion of policy, we shall argue that these conclusions give support to a policy of constant real labour incomes, of comprehensive efforts to redistribute work through shorter working hours or related schemes, and of selective efforts to slow down capacity scrapping.     

The role of price and nonprice factors in predicting Australia's trade performance

This article investigates the role of price and nonprice factors in predicting Australia's trade performance. Results broadly suggest that Australia's trade performance is largely explained by the nonprice factors namely, R&D, reliability of domestic supply, aggregate world demand and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in long run. Price factors such as, relative price of Australian exports and domestic prices are also important predictors of trade competitiveness. The policy implications of these findings are that there are dividends in terms of improved trade performance by encouraging R&D expenditure, attracting FDI, improving domestic supply and implementing appropriate policies to improve price competitiveness.     

Food Aid Disincentives: the Tunisian Experience

An econometric model is used to assess the short‐term (impact), interim, and cumulative effects of food aid on the economy of Tunisia for the period 1960–92. Food aid displaced neither domestic production nor commercial imports of food grains. Rather, food aid provided incentives to promote growth through its income and policy effects. Food aid provided increased public revenue that enabled the government to take an active role in domestic pricing, preventing disincentive prices and promoting domestic production. The results indicate a positive role for food aid when disincentive effects are managed through public policies.     

Optimising and Non‐optimising Balance of Trade Models: A Comparative Evidence from India

This study estimates and compares the competing optimising and non‐optimising balance of trade models using Indian data. The results obtained from the optimising model suggest that the prices relative to user cost of capital and the real wealth lead to a deterioration, while the real capital stock results in an improvement in trade balance. The estimates of conventional non‐optimising balance of trade model show the significant effect of domestic income and real exchange rate and the insignificant effect of world income on the balance of trade. The error correction models reinforce the long run estimates and show the significant effect of lagged equilibria on the balance of trade. The non‐nested hypothesis tests provide mixed evidence for the preference of one model over the other. The J test suggests that the optimising model outperforms the non‐optimising model, while the F test shows that both these models are acceptable in explaining the balance of trade.     

Monetary and fiscal policies in a heterogeneous‐agent economy

We study the effects of long‐run inflation and income taxation in an economy where households face uninsurable idiosyncratic risks. We construct a tractable competitive‐search framework that generates dispersion of prices, income and wealth. We analytically characterize the stationary equilibrium and the policy effects on individual choices. Quantitative analysis finds that monetary and fiscal policies have distinct effects on macro aggregates, such as output, savings and wealth, income and consumption inequalities. There is a hump‐shaped relationship between welfare and the respective policies. Overall, welfare is maximized by a deviation from the Friedman rule, paired with distortionary income taxation.     

Licensing of New Technology Versus Direct Foreign Investment: A General Equilibrium Analysis

In a general equilibrium model with sector-specific capital, a country which licenses new technology and imports capital itself would have lower national income than if it permitted direct investment by foreigners with rights to the technology. However, the reverse can be true if capital is mobile between sectors. Thus, licensing is a poor policy in the short run but can be a good policy in the long run.     

Hot Money Flows,Cycles in Primary Commodity Prices,and Financial Control in Developing Countries

Because the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuses on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies on the rest of the world. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on short-term dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into Emerging Markets (EM) with convertible currencies. When each EM central bank intervenes to prevent its individual currency from appreciating, collectively they lose monetary control, inflate, and cause an upsurge in primary commodity prices internationally. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a return of the hot money to the United States (and to other industrial countries) as commercial banks stop lending to foreign exchange speculators. World prices of primary products then collapse. African countries with exchange controls and less convertible currencies are not so attractive to currency speculators. Thus, they are less vulnerable than EM to the ebb and flow of hot money. However, African countries are more vulnerable to cycles in primary commodity prices because food is a greater proportion of their consumption, and—being less industrialized—they are more vulnerable to fluctuations in prices of their commodity exports. Supply-side shocks, such as a crop failure anywhere in the world, can affect the price of an individual commodity. But joint fluctuations in the prices of all primary products—minerals, energy, cereals, and so on—reflect monetary conditions in the world economy as determined by the ebb and flow of hot money from the United States, and increasingly from other industrial countries with near-zero interest rates.     

Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets—The Role of Economic Sentiments

This paper examines the importance of different economic sentiments for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) during the transition process. We first analyze the importance of economic confidence with respect to the CEECs' financial markets. Since the integration of formerly strongly‐regulated markets into global markets can also lead to an increase in the dependence of the CEECs' economies on global sentiments, we also investigate the relationship between global economic sentiments, domestic income, and share prices. Applying a restricted cointegrating VAR (CVAR) framework, which allows us to distinguish between the long‐run and the short‐run dynamics, our results for the short run suggest that economic sentiments are influenced by share prices but also offer some predictive power with respect to the latter. What is more, European sentiments play an important role in particular for the CEECs' income and sentiments.     

Nontourism services in Barbados: 1970–97

This paper initially refers to some of the classifications of services used by various authors, followed by the components that comprise nontourism services in Barbados and their linkages to the other sectors of the Barbados economy. Using regression analysis, variables that may influence nontourism services in the long and short run are then identified. In the long run, the variables that impact nontourism services are relative real incomes, tourist arrivals, merchandise imports, commercial bank credit, relative prices, and government policy. The short run is influenced by relative real incomes, tourist arrivals, and merchandise imports. Since tourist arrivals influence nontourism services in the long and short run, Barbados must still focus on tourism activity to maximize its foreign exchange potential from nontourism services.     

Policy reforms and asymmetric price transmission in the Zambian and Tanzanian coffee markets

Several governments in sub-Saharan Africa have embarked on various market reforms to improve commodity market performance. However, the success of such market reforms depends partly on the strength of the transmission of price signals between spatially separated markets and between different levels of commodity value chains. This study employs momentum threshold cointegration and error correction models to examine the impact of policy reforms on the transmission of prices between the world coffee market and domestic prices in Zambia and Tanzania. The findings show that in the case of Zambia, where policy reforms liberalized coffee markets, the producer prices respond more swiftly to decreases than increases in world market prices, and this swiftness increased after the policy reforms. For Tanzania, where reforms resulted in increased government intervention, producer prices were found to respond quicker to increases than decreases in world market prices over the period under consideration. However, the period before reforms showed domestic prices responding more swiftly to decreases than increases in world prices, while the post-reform period was characterized by faster responses to increases than decreases in world prices.     

General Equilibrium Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Welfare of Households in South Asia

Impacts of fiscal and monetary policies are assessed in an open economy two sector multi‐household general equilibrium tax model with money for South Asia. Despite impressive growth rates there is evidence for alarming gaps in the distribution of income among households that require very careful design of economic policies. Generally the impacts of fiscal expansions are positive for all categories of households under the flexible price system but the gains are much higher for households in the upper income group than for those in the bottom. In theory the equilibrium relative prices guarantee the optimal allocation of resources in such economy. Simulation results show that demand, output and employment are sensitive to the preferences of consumers, confidence of producers and sector specific production technologies. Monetary policy is super‐neutral under flexible price regime but can complement fiscal policy well when aggregate prices are made sticky. Combination of monetary and fiscal policies in this manner can have extensive impacts in efficiency and redistribution. Higher taxes distort incentives to work and investment from richer households slowing down the economy. This reduces the welfare level of both rich and poor. Flexibility in prices enhances the market mechanism and makes the fiscal policy more effective and efficient.     

Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with inflation and output persistence

We study optimal monetary policy for a small open economy in a model where both inflation and output show persistence. We incorporate habit formation into intertemporal consumption decision and modify the Calvo price setting to include indexation to past inflation. The message conveyed from this study can be viewed as twofold. First, full stabilization of domestic prices or the output gap is not optimal policy. This is because stabilization of the output gap leads to serial correlation in domestic inflation, whereas under full stabilization of domestic prices the output gap displays some serial correlation. It is, however, shown that at the zero inflation steady state, stabilizing domestic prices is equivalent to stabilizing the output gap. Second, in the presence of foreign income shock inflation and the output gap are more stable under flexible CPI inflation targeting than under other alternative policy regimes considered.     

New trade theory,non-price competitiveness and export performance

This paper develops a demand function for Greece's exports of manufactures according to New Trade Theory. Non-price competitiveness plays a vital role in explaining export performance and failure to include it in the export equation may lead to mis-specification error. Foreign income has a moderately high effect on exports in the long run and no effect in the short run. Exports are also sensitive to domestic and competitors' prices in the long run, but cost and price competitiveness elasticities are close to one, indicating that Greek exporters have some ability to compete on the basis of prices.