WHAT CEREALS WILL INDONESIA STILL IMPORT IN 2020?

Most existing projection models forecast that Indonesia will become a net importer of increasing amounts of basic cereals such as rice, maize and wheat, implicitly providing grounds for the government's continuing pursuit of food self-sufficiency at any cost. A growing urban population, increases in income per capita, trends in planted area and new technologies are determining factors used in these models. The present paper employs a scenario approach based on a combination of time-series models, qualitative assessments and a cross-country analogy with Malaysia to build a picture of likely food cereal production and consumption patterns in 2020. Consequent levels of imports are calculated and estimates of their weight in the Indonesian economy are presented, comparing four periods: 1975, 1990, 2005 and 2020. These estimates are then used in considering policy issues related to food security and self-sufficiency.     

THE ECONOMICS OF IMPORT PARITY PRICING: A PEDAGOGICAL NOTE

This paper demonstrates that pricing to import parity is not necessarily prima facie evidence of the exercise of market power. It is shown that in the presence of imports both market structures, perfect competition and monopoly, can price to import parity. If markets can be segmented enabling the firm to discriminate between the export and domestic market it is shown that the imperfectly competitive firm can differentially price. Furthermore, as the number of domestic firms is increased, and if these firms are able to segment the market, the differential between domestic and foreign prices is reduced. The import parity price may or may not be charged in the domestic market. A measure of the exercise of market power is therefore the differential between export parity and the domestic price.     

IMPORT LIBERALIZATION AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN INDIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN THE 1990s

Total factor productivity growth in Indian manufacturing decelerated in the 1990s, a decade of major economic reforms in India. Econometric analysis presented in the paper indicates that the lowering of effective protection to industries favorably affected productivity growth. The results suggest that gestation lags in investment projects and slower agricultural growth in the 1990s had an adverse effect on productivity growth. The analysis reveals that underutilization of industrial capacity was an important cause of the productivity slowdown. With corrections for capacity utilization, the estimated productivity growth in the 1990s is found to be about the same as in the 1980s.     

INFORMALIZATION OF INDUSTRIAL LABOR IN INDIA: EFFECTS OF LABOR MARKET RIGIDITIES AND IMPORT COMPETITION

Since the 1980s, industrial labor in India has been increasingly informalized, manifested in a rising share of unorganized sector employment and the growing use of temporary and contract workers, and subcontracting in organized manufacturing. Using unit‐level data from the National Sample Survey employment–unemployment survey for 2004–5, the paper investigates econometrically whether labor market rigidities and import competition have been responsible for the informalization of industrial labor in India. The results of econometric models show that labor market reforms tend to increase the creation of regular jobs, while import competition tends to raise casual employment among workers with education levels above primary.     

EXCHANGE RATE PASS‐THROUGH TO IMPORT PRICES IN SOUTH AFRICA: IS THERE ASYMMETRY?1

This paper examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT) to import prices in South Africa. It further explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass‐through effects on import prices, i.e. whether the exchange rate pass‐through is symmetric or asymmetric. The findings of the study suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation, which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also evidence to suggest that pass‐through is slightly higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate in harmony with the menu cost theory when the invoices are denominated in the exporters' currency.     

“温 良 恭 俭 让”

选自于:<论语·学而> 解读:人要学会温和、善良、恭谨、简朴、谦让.即:做人一定要有美好的德行.其实这正也是自古以来的做人之本.     

经纪人、交易员、律师和间谍

金融危机过后，“华尔街阴谋论”逐渐盛行起来，可惜都是臆测居多，缺乏真凭实据。而本书的作者以真实的访谈入手，揭出CIA等情报机构与华尔街银行合作的种种细节，可谓匠心独具。     

Assessing black progress: employment,occupation, earnings,income, poverty

Farley discusses changes in employment, occupation, earnings, income, and poverty among US blacks. Among black men, there has been a persistent rise in unemployment since 1960. By the early 1980s, 1 black man out of 8 had dropped out of the labor force, compared to 1 in 20 white men. Some contend that many black men lack the skills to be employed or have personal habits and criminal records which make them unacceptable to employers. Others believe that the expansion of federal welfare programs offers attractive alternatives to men who have limited earnings potential. Still others stress that blacks are concentrated within cities, while the growth of employment is occurring in suburbs. Among those blacks over age 54, labor force participation has declined because of improved Social Security benefits, better private pensions, and the greater availability of Supplemental Security Income. The employment of young blacks compared to whites has deteriorated since 1960. For both races, there has been a steady rise in the employment of women. The recent increases, however, have been great for whites. By the early 1980s, white women caught up with black women in terms of employment. Unlike the indicators of employment itself, there is unambiguous evidence that the occupational distribution of employed blacks has been upgraded and is gradually becoming similar to that of whites. Findings from many studies show that blacks once earned much less than similar whites, but this racial difference has declined among men and has nearly disappeared among women. The proportion of blacks impoverished fell sharply in the 1960s, reaching a minimum of 30% in the early 1970s. Since the early 1970s, blacks have made few gains. The proportion impoverished actually increased and the ratio of black-to-white family income declined. The fact that the earnings of black males are no longer rising faster than those of whites and that there is no longer a migration from southern farms to cities plays a role, but changes in family structure are also important. At all dates, poverty rates have been high and income levels low in families headed by women. In 1984, for example, 52% of the black families with a woman as head of household were below the poverty line, compared to 15% of the black married-couple families. While similar trends are occurring in white families, there has been a sharper increase in the proportion of blacks living in these female-maintained families which have high poverty rates.