利率市场化：我国商业银行面临的挑战与对策

我国的利率市场化改革已经进入加速推进阶段;利率市场化将对我国商业银行形成多方面的影响与挑战:银行竞争更加激烈、利率风险凸显、利差下降、利润滑坡,等等。商业银行应当充分认识利率市场化可能带来的冲击,加快构建利率定价与利率风险防控机制与体系,提高应对利率市场化环境的能力。     

利率市场化与商业银行效率研究——基于DEA-Malmquist指数模型的分析

本文基于DEA的Malmquist生产率指数法对2004—2014年16家上市银行的效率进行了分析,实证分析表明,我国商业银行效率整体有所提高.2012年以来,随着存款利率市场化的深入推进,其对我国商业银行效率的冲击有所加大,商业银行效率有下降趋势.但国有大型商业银行的效率相对稳定,且高于股份制商业银行,表明国有大型银行更能抵御利率市场化的不利冲击.     

利率市场化进程中商业银行经营管理策略选择

资金价格的放开对我国商业银行经营的影响开始显现,而这一影响随着改革步伐的加快将越来越明显,从短期来看,利率市场化改革初期可能导致利率快速上升且波动频繁;风险逐步向银行集中,系统性风险增加;借款客户风险度结构产生变化;同业之间吸收存款的竞争将更加激烈等.从长期来看,利率市场化将导致银行间的竞争手段更加直接;银行存贷款的利差将整体缩小,银行的盈利方式发生变化;利率风险将成为银行面临的主要风险.本文从利率市场化改革的进程入手,分析了利率市场化对商业银行的影响,有针对性地提出了商业银行适应利率市场化改革的策略选择.     

我国16家上市商业银行净利差的影响因素实证分析

净利差作为我国商业银行重要的收入来源,其水平高低可以反映出商业银行的盈利能力和我国利率市场化的进展程度。本文基于16家上市银行2006~2014年的面板数据,在传统的做市商模型基础上,结合我国具体实际,将影响商业银行净利差的因素分类为风险角度、成本角度、宏观角度,运用固定效应模型实证检验了利率市场化进程中商业银行净利差影响因素及其变化过程。最后基于实证结论,本文从商业银行经营管理和国家宏观调控两个层面提出银行自身应当提高风险管理水平和经营管理水平,加强金融产品创新,转变盈利模式;政府应继续深化利率市场化改革,加强金融监管,保障金融市场稳定运行。     

利率市场化对我国商业银行的影响及对策研究

利率市场化是我国深化金融体制改革的必由之路,对实现金融资源的合理配置,提高我国的经济效率起着举足轻重的作用。利率市场化进程不断加速和推进,势必会给我国商业银行带来新的发展机遇,同时也会对现有银行体系带来严重的冲击和挑战。本文围绕利率市场化对我国商业银行的影响及应对策略展开研究,首先介绍利率市场化的涵义及其推行的必要性,其次对利率市场化对我国商业银行影响进行分析,并在此基础上,有针对性地提出利率市场化背景下我国商业银行可持续发展的应对措施。     

中国利率市场化改革的模式和顺序

本文通过分析各国利率市场化改革的经验,总结出三种主要的改革模式,即市场驱动型、政府激进型和政府渐进型改革模式。基于中国利率改革的进程,中国的利率市场化改革应该属于政府渐进型模式。在此基础上,本文将未来我国利率改革划分为四个阶段,并利用16家上市银行的数据对相关阶段银行业所受影响进行实证分析,发现上述四个阶段中,短期存款利率放开对银行业的冲击最大,因此应该最后逐步实现,以降低改革成本。为了更好地适应利率市场化改革,商业银行应该测算利率市场化后续改革措施可能的冲击影响,加快业务结构转型。     

竞争与效率——基于我国区域性商业银行的实证研究

针对文献中有关银行业竞争与效率之间关系的争论,本文采用我国区域性城市商业银行和农村商业银行的数据做了进一步的探索。文章采用随机前沿分析法计算银行效率水平,并利用银保监会发布的银行分支许可证信息构建区域竞争指数,从而考察区域银行业竞争程度对银行经营效率的影响。研究印证了竞争程度的增加可以提高区域性商业银行的效率,但竞争度对农村商业银行效率的影响更大。结果表明,我国区域性商业银行中的竞争与效率之间存在非线性关系,过度的竞争会对区域性商业银行的效率造成负面影响。通过对区域性银行跨区经营行为的进一步分析,发现竞争会影响区域性银行跨区经营决策,进而改变其经营效率。具体来讲,当区域性商业银行在银行竞争程度更高的地区设立异地分支机构时,银行效率提高的更多。本文结果对相关文献提供了重要的补充,并为我国区域银行业的发展规划提供了实证依据。     

利率市场化对我国商业银行盈利的影响及建议

随着我国利率市场化改革的不断深入,我国商业银行传统的经营模式受到很大的冲击,本文通过构建关于商业银行盈利的相关线性模型,分析得出利率市场化冲击了商业银行传统的依靠存贷利息差的盈利模式,而银行的资产规模越大,影响越小,同时也可以看到商业银行在积极调整发展结构,最后本文对商业银行未来如何应对不断深入的利率市场化提出一些建议。     

利率市场化背景下的商业银行利率风险管理研究

利率风险管理是商业银行经营管理中最常用的一种管理方法,被普遍用于我国商业银行的风险控制以及风险管理中。近些年来,我国商业银行的利差收入在银行总利润中占比过大,银行过度依靠利差收入的特征广受诟病,利率市场化改革的呼声越来越高。随着利率市场化改革进程的不断推进,商业银行的利率管理暴露出了很多问题。本文基于利率市场化改革的背景,分析商业银行利率风险管理的现状,并提出相应的对策建议。     

利率市场化改革中商业银行面临的风险及对策研究

利率市场化改革是一国金融业发展到一定程度的客观需要和必然结果．也是一国经济体制改革中的核心问题。随着我国利率市场化进程的深入．我国商业银行面临利率市场化带来的严重冲击和巨大风险,本文从商业银行的角度分析了可能存在的风险,并在此基础上提出相应的对策。     

Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage-free pricing theory.     

教育与资本怎样的前景怎样的现实

来自政府的声音: "动员各种社会资源,发展教育" 此次论坛上财政部长助理张少春的发言是最受关注的发言之一.他的演讲传达出的信息有这样几方面:第一,谈到现实,他认为全社会对教育的巨大需求与我国公共投入不足已成为我国教育事业发展的突出矛盾.近年来,以公共部门投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入机制成为解决这一问题的重要途径,也使得公共部门与私营部门在教育领域的合作日益密切.第二,谈到前景,他认为,1.中国经济持续、快速的增长对高技能人才产生巨大的需求,这为私营部门的参与提供了广阔空间.2.随着公共财政职能的不断完善,财政资金将在各项教育事业中重新进行分配,进一步优化财政支出结构,提高资金的使用效率.在"十一五"期间,我国将把公共支出的重点转移到农村.我们将逐步把全体农村适龄儿童的义务教育全部纳入公共财政体制.     

Director gender and mergers and acquisitions

Does director gender influence CEO empire building? Does it affect the bid premium paid for target firms? Less overconfident female directors less overestimate merger gains. As a result, firms with female directors are less likely to make acquisitions and if they do, pay lower bid premia. Using acquisition bids by S&P 1500 companies during 1997–2009 we find that each additional female director is associated with 7.6% fewer bids, and each additional female director on a bidder board reduces the bid premium paid by 15.4%. Our findings support the notion that female directors help create shareholder value through their influence on acquisition decisions. We also discuss other possible interpretations of our findings.     

Political corruption and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between political corruption and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that local corruption increases firm acquisitiveness but decreases firm targetiveness. The levels of corruption in acquirer areas relate positively to the bid premiums and negatively to the likelihood of deal completion. Corruption motivates acquiring firms to use excess cash for payment, which mitigates the negative effect of corruption on acquirer shareholder value. The evidence indicates that acquisitions help acquiring firms convert cash into hard-to-extract assets and relocate assets from the high to low corruption areas, thereby shielding their liquid assets from expropriation by local officials.     

Trust and cross-border mergers and acquisitions

A number of studies suggest that social trust matters for investment. Using different measures of trust from World Values Survey, we show that countries where people display higher levels of trust engage in more cross-border M&A activities. When they do, these acquirers pay lower premiums. To the extent that these acquirers also tend to engage in larger acquisitions as well, our findings suggest that a larger selection pool of potential targets and higher value targets enable these acquirers to negotiate for lower premiums. We do not find evidence of the significant effect for target country trust levels. Hence, trust may benefit those acquiring firms in cross-border transactions.     

Tournament-based incentives and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between tournament-based incentives, which are proxied by the difference between a firm's CEO pay and the median pay of the senior managers, and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that tournament-based incentives are positively related to firm acquisitiveness and acquiring firms' stock and operating performance. Further analysis indicates that positive acquisition performance increases the likelihood of the CEO being promoted from inside the acquiring firm. Our evidence is consistent with the view that tournament-based incentives motivate acquiring firms' managers to make greater efforts and take more risk that result in superior acquisition performance.     

Corporate Innovations and Mergers and Acquisitions

Using a large and unique patent‐merger data set over the period 1984 to 2006, we show that companies with large patent portfolios and low R&D expenses are acquirers, while companies with high R&D expenses and slow growth in patent output are targets. Further, technological overlap between firm pairs has a positive effect on transaction incidence, and this effect is reduced for firm pairs that overlap in product markets. We also show that acquirers with prior technological linkage to their target firms produce more patents afterwards. We conclude that synergies obtained from combining innovation capabilities are important drivers of acquisitions.     

East and west and north and south : A preliminary model

The Brandt report and other proposals for a new North-South world order continue to be the focus of lively debate, yet it is often argued that little concrete has emerged from their recommendations. A major reason for this, the author argues, is that the East-West conflict component is not sufficiently taken into consideration-East-West tensions are a severe constraint on and a determining factor of North-South relations. Using influence diagrams, the author develops a flexible framework for discussion and assessment of N/S-E/W relations.