Ski tourism in a warmer world: Increased adaptation and regional economic impacts in Austria

Climate change risk has gained considerable attention within the ski industry and its investors. Several past studies have overlooked the adaptive capacity of snowmaking and within-season demand variation and therefore overestimated climate change impacts. This study of the Austrian ski market (208 ski areas) including snowmaking found impacts are substantial and spatially highly differentiated, but nonetheless manageable (season length losses of 10–16%) for the majority of ski areas until the 2050s under a high emissions pathway (RCP 8.5) or even the 2080s in a low emission pathway (RCP 4.5). The economic impacts of reduced operations are largely concentrated in regions less dependent on tourism. Preserving this sector in high-risk areas can be considered maladaptive, but may be important to maintain demand. A sustainable end-of-century future for a high proportion of Austria's ski areas is dependent on achieving the low-emission future set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.     

Using ski industry response to climatic variability to assess climate change risk: An analogue study in Eastern Canada

To accurately characterize the ski industry's risk to future climate change and varied quality of snow conditions, it is important to assess how the industry has managed and adapted to contemporary anomalously warm ski seasons. This is the first temporal climate change analogue study to use higher resolution daily performance data at the individual ski area scale, including reported snow quality, ski lift operations, slope openings, and water usage for snowmaking. The record warm winter of 2011–2012 in the Ontario ski tourism market (Eastern Canada) is representative of projected future average winter conditions under a mid-century, high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), which was compared to the 2010–2011 season which was climatically normal (for the 1981–2010 period). Supply-side impacts across the 17 ski areas during the analogue winter included a total average decrease in the ski season length (−17% days), operating ski lifts (−3%), skiable terrain (−9%), reduced snow quality (e.g., -46% days with packed powder), snowmaking days (−18%), and an increase in water usage for snowmaking (e.g., +300% in December). Demand-side impacts include a 10% decrease in overall skier visits, with a resort size-correlation (small −20%, intermediate −14%, large −8%). With reduced operational ski terrain and more frequent marginal snow conditions, visitor experience is adversely affected more frequently. Collectively, these findings identify differential impacts in the ski tourism market and can assist ski area managers, communities, investors and governments with developing climate change adaptation plans.     

Perceptions of climate change impacts,adaptation and limits to adaption in the Australian Alps: the ski-tourism industry and key stakeholders

This paper explores perceptions of ski-tourism representatives and other regional stakeholders about climate change impacts, limits to tourism development and adaptation strategies in the Australian Alps. This area faces rising temperatures, declining rain and snow falls, and shorter skiing seasons. Open-ended interviews examined the perceptions, plans and attitudes of the ski industry and those of conservation managers, local government officials and Australian researchers into tourism and/or climate change effects in the Australian Alps. All interviewees accepted climate change was a reality; several, however, questioned the worst-case scenarios. The major tourism-related adaptation strategies were snowmaking and diversifying to year-round tourism; the success of these strategies will vary according to individual resorts’ snowmaking capacity and potential summer tourism revenue. Currently non-snow-based tourism revenue is worth only approximately 30% of winter revenue. Social resistance to increased water and electricity use for snowmaking emerged as an important issue. Competition for water, including the needs of ecosystems, agriculture and fire protection in this summer-fire-prone region, and fire management issues, is a key concern. Current conflicts between the ski industry and other stakeholders over climate change adaptation call for a collaborative adaptation and change policy within the Australian Alps.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism in the Swiss Alps

This paper examines the impacts of three consecutive snow-deficient winters at the end of the 1980s on the winter tourism industry in Switzerland. It is shown that ski areas in lower areas suffered severe consequences. Ski areas at higher altitudes (in particular glacier ski resorts) on the other hand increased their transport figures and therefore profited from the lack of snow in lower areas. The snow-reliability of all Swiss ski fields under current climate conditions and under a 2"C warming are investigated. Under current climate conditions 85% of all Swiss ski areas are snow-reliable. This number would drop to 63% if temperatures were to rise by 2"C. This is likely to threaten the regionally balanced economic growth which winter tourism has provided. Possible strategies for the winter tourism industry to adopt if climate change occurs are presented.     

Behavioural adaptation to climate change among winter alpine tourists: an analysis of tourist motivations and leisure substitutability

Understanding market responses to climate change impacts has important implications for the sustainability of Australia's winter tourism destinations. Utilising a framework incorporating push–pull tourist motivations and the theory of leisure substitutability, this study sought to explore how winter tourists in Australia will adapt to changes in snow cover in Australia's alpine regions under future climate change scenarios. The results of a questionnaire completed by 231 respondents indicated that tourist motivations were related to behavioural adaptation, and that there is a general preference among the current winter market for spatial substitution in the event of poor snow. Those motivated by recreation specialisation or snow-related attributes were likely to opt for spatial substitution, while tourists motivated by self-expression and après ski activities displayed resilience to poor snow conditions. The results demonstrate a clear division between leisure-driven tourists who valued participation in sport, and experience-driven tourists, who displayed higher resilience to reduced snow under projected climate change scenarios. These results have practical implications for winter tourism destinations, both in terms of targeting experience-driven tourists in the case of reduced snow as well as the longer term sustainability and viability of winter tourism destinations.     

A survival analysis of ski lift companies

This article investigates the factors influencing the survival of 244 ski lift operators in Austria over the period 1995–2011. Both Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models with time-varying covariates are utilized to distinguish between ski lift operators that temporarily suspended operations (e.g. due to insolvency) and those that permanently stopped their service. The results show that early adoption of snowmaking facilities led to a significantly lower risk of failure. Introducing snowmaking at later periods (i.e. from 2000 onwards) did not have a significant impact. Size, elevation of the ski areas, local competition, and regional effects also play a significant role in the survival of ski areas, but these factors cannot explain temporary failures. Surprisingly, the probability of permanent exits and temporary failures is independent of variations in snow depth at the nearest weather station. A lack of accommodation capacity and economic recessions lead to a higher risk of both types of failures.     

Can the North American ski industry attain climate resiliency? A modified Delphi survey on transformations towards sustainable tourism

As global temperatures increase, does accelerating climate change represent an existential crisis or a manageable challenge for the ski industry? Despite considerable evidence demonstrating the global ski industry is in the early stages of a climate-induced transition, global research on ski industry stakeholder perspectives shows varied levels of climate risk awareness, a focus on future vulnerability, and limited engagement in adaptation. Within North America, research has focussed on the physical climatic impacts to ski operations and possible skier responses, yet there lacks insight into industry perceptions on current and future climate vulnerability. This study fills this important knowledge gap using a Delphi survey to engage 52 leaders from across the continent in a dialogue on strategic climate responsiveness. Results demonstrate North American ski industry leaders’ climate risk perceptions range widely, and opinions diverge over if or how to respond at both an industry and destination scale. Simultaneously, industry experts believe mountain tourists increasingly value nature-based activities, place-bound products, and corporate responsibility. Analysing industry leaders’ responses through Enlightened Stakeholder theory highlights how aligning supply-side environmental management with demand-side tourist experiences may create opportunities for new partnerships, innovations, policies, and strategies needed to achieve climate-resilient and sustainable futures.     

Does artificial snow production pay under future climate conditions? – A case study for a vulnerable ski area in Austria

The prospects of increasing temperatures, a growing frequency of snow scarce winter seasons and rising energy prices raise questions about the future profitability of snowmaking. Therefore, we carry out a cost–revenue analysis of snowmaking based on projected daily snowmaking hours and visitor numbers until 2050 for a case study site in Austria. The results show that ski area operators are at risk of facing a substantial increase in total energy costs due to expected rising electricity costs, although the total amount of snowmaking hours is projected to slightly decrease because of shrinking feasible time for snowmaking (considering current snowmaking infrastructure). In the long run ski visitor numbers are projected to decline due to decreasing overall snow depths. Overall, the profitability analysis of skiing operations reveals that price increases in ski lift tickets, slightly higher than observed in the recent past, will be inevitable in order to keep skiing operations profitable in future.     

Changes in demand for tourism with climate change: a case study of visitation patterns to six ski resorts in Australia

Tourism in ski resorts depends on snow cover which is expected to decline with climate change. This paper explores hypotheses about demand side responses to climatic change by analyzing patterns of visitation in recent years with differing snow cover. Snow cover and visitation patterns to six resorts which differ in altitude and size in Victoria, Australia, were compared between a slightly warm and much drier year (2006, +0.6°C and ?50% precipitation to longer-term averages) to a more typical year (2007) and to nine earlier years. Snowmaking partly offset declines in natural snow cover in 2006, although there were still fewer days with snow on the ground. The number of visitor days was much lower in 2006 than the previous nine years for the three lowest-altitude resorts (?69%), while it actually increased (+10%) in the highest altitude resort where there were fewer visitors (?17%), but they stayed longer. Snowmaking is already critical for ski resorts in low snow years. With warmer conditions, lower-altitude resorts may not receive enough income due to reduced visitation to offset snowmaking costs, while higher-altitude resorts may have a short-term gain, but become uneconomical in the longer term.     

Convinced,ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change

Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners, annoyed deniers, ambivalent optimists, convinced wait-and-seers. Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level.     

Managing cross-country skiing destinations under the conditions of climate change - Scenarios for destinations in Austria and Finland

Winter sports resorts in general, and cross-country skiing destinations in particular, will need to address the impacts of climate change in the near future. This study uses the results of a discrete choice experiment to investigate likely skier responses to various destination scenarios under possible adaptation strategies to climate change. The heterogeneity of skiers is accounted for in a latent class model resulting in three segments of Austrian and Finnish skiers respectively. The results show that it is less risky for Austrian destinations to introduce technical adaptation, as well as to expand into additional offers, compared to Finland. The main reasons seem to be the strong tradition of cross-country skiing in Finland combined with a clear aversion toward user fees. The study serves as an example for using results of a stated choice survey to evaluate future destination scenarios and provide market intelligence for management and target marketing.     

A review of the IPCC Fifth Assessment and implications for tourism sector climate resilience and decarbonization

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013–2014 was the most comprehensive analysis of anthropogenic climate change, its impacts, and potential responses. It concluded that climate change is “unequivocal” and human activities are the dominant cause. Avoidance of “dangerous” climate change will require sustained substantial reductions of emissions by mid-century and that net emissions decrease to zero before 2100. This paper describes, reviews and explains the place of tourism in AR5 and AR5's relevance for tourism's future, including impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilities, and mitigation. Tourism's position in AR5 has strengthened, particularly with respect to the recognition of transboundary impacts, the sector's contribution to climate change and its mitigation requirements. Major regional knowledge gaps persist. A lack of understanding of the integrated impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation strategies potentially hinders the development of resilient tourism operations and destinations. Uncertainties regarding tourist response to climate change impacts and mitigation policy impede predictions of tourism demand. The implications of different decarbonization pathways for the future of international tourism represent a key knowledge gap. The limited response of key tourism organizations to AR5 contributes to the risks climate change poses to the sector.     

The decarbonisation impasse: global tourism leaders’ views on climate change mitigation

Abstract

The Paris Climate Agreement is based on pledges from 195 countries to substantially reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to prevent dangerous climate change. The tourism sector has likewise pledged to reduce its GHG emissions (?70% by 2050); however, current emission trends would result in a tripling in the same timeframe. In order to understand how the sector understands the decarbonisation challenge, 17 senior tourism leaders were interviewed with regard to their perspectives on the risks and opportunities associated with climate change impacts and action. Respondents affirmed that the climate is already changing, fuelled by human activities, including tourism, and that its impacts on society and tourism will be largely negative and devastating in some regions. Opinion was divided regarding mitigation timelines, the compatibility of continued tourism growth with Paris Climate Agreement decarbonisation goals, and the role of technology and governance in reducing emissions. The paper examines leaders’ perspectives in terms of “belief systems” that interpret information in decision-making, as well as forms of agnogenesis; this is, the fabrication of uncertainty to justify non-action. Belief systems and agnogenesis are thought to represent important barriers to progress on the decarbonisation of tourism, as they are for the global low-carbon transition.     

Mobile phone network data reveal nationwide economic value of coastal tourism under climate change

The technology-driven application of big data is expected to assist policymaking towards sustainable development; however, the relevant literature has not addressed human welfare under climate change, which limits the understanding of climate change impacts on human societies. We present the first application of unique mobile phone network data to evaluate the current nation-wide human welfare of coastal tourism at Japanese beaches and project the value change using the four climate change scenarios. The results show that the projected national economic value loss rates are more significant than the projected national physical beach loss rates. Our findings demonstrate regional differences in recreational values: most southern beaches with larger current values would disappear, while the current small values of the northern beaches would remain. These changes imply that the ranks of the beaches, based on economic values, would enable policymakers to discuss management priorities under climate change.     

Climate change in Northern Sweden: intra-regional perceptions of vulnerability among winter-oriented tourism businesses

Climate change is a potential threat to society and business. Although research has noted that the tourism sector may be robust on the macro scale, significant losses at local levels have been suggested. This paper examines Upper Norrland, in Northern Sweden, by measuring the perceptions of winter-oriented tourism entrepreneurs. Their perceptions of potential threats from climate change are assessed, including how entrepreneurs view the future, in terms of climate change impacts and sustainability of the region as a winter-tourism destination. A quantitative survey of entrepreneurs (n = 63) gave responses along geographical and operator dimensions to reveal local differences within the Upper Norrland region, showing the coastland to be perceived as more exposed to change than inland areas. Venue-based businesses see climate change as a higher priority than activity-based, potentially mobile, businesses, regardless of their location. The general perception among businesses is that climate change will not drastically impact the tourism sector over the next 10 years. A basic model for mapping local differences is outlined to stimulate further study of the under-researched intra-regional nuances in climate change and tourism research. A case is made for regional planners to use this tool and to educate local businesses on adaptation techniques.     

Balancing the dual mandate of conservation and visitor use at a Canadian world heritage site in an era of rapid climate change

Abstract

National parks in Canada operate under the dual mandate of conservation and visitor use, which involves balancing ecological integrity and nature-based tourism activities. Climate-induced environmental change may increase the existing tension between conservation and visitor use as major tourism resources located in protected areas (PAs) are projected to undergo large-scale changes. This study draws upon the behavioural approach, scenario planning, and landscape visualizations to examine the relationship between climate change impacts, visitor perceptions, and visitor experience management at the Athabasca Glacier in Jasper National Park, Canada. Four tourism development scenarios defined by two management drivers (ecological integrity and visitor demand) with corresponding storylines and visualizations were developed for 2050. The visualized scenarios were presented to visitors (n?=?304) in a survey to understand potential implications on visitor satisfaction. The results suggest that park managers need to find a balance between ecological integrity and visitor use in a way that ensures commercialized tourism development is limited, educational material is prioritized, and ecological integrity is maintained. While understanding the behaviour of future tourists is complex, it is a critical component of climate change adaptation planning and decision-making processes that needs to be prioritized by policymakers and PAs managers.     

The vulnerability of destinations to climate change: A comparative analysis of contextual socio-political factors

Climate change affects tourism and tourism affects climate change. Thus, both adaptation and mitigation strategies are needed to guarantee the sustainability of destinations. As well as the direct impacts of climate change, the effectiveness of these strategies determines the vulnerability of destinations. This paper compares the Riviera Maya (Mexican Caribbean) and Alt Maresme (Spanish Mediterranean) to identify the contextual socio-political factors that influence the vulnerability of destinations to climate change. Thirty-six semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders from tourism and the environment, public organizations, NGOs, and different levels of the public administration at both destinations. This research focuses on the perception of risk and agenda setting, the stakeholders’ involvement and the limitations of public action. The results show that awareness is greater, climate change is more important to the tourism agenda and private organizations are more involved in the Riviera Maya than in Alt Maresme. Five socio-political aspects are identified and discussed to explain the results: the destination’s evolution; the characteristics and evolution of tourism policy; extreme meteorological events as breaking points for policies; the socioeconomic context and the dependence on tourism; and the characteristics of the tourism offer, such as the dependence on natural resources and seasonality.     

Hospitality Industry Responses to Climate Change: A Benchmark Study of Taiwanese Tourist Hotels

Hotels are one of the tourism businesses most vulnerable to climate change because of their fixed assets. Results are presented of a baseline study that explores the awareness, attitudes, and behaviours of Taiwanese tourist hotels with respect to climate change and its potential impacts as well as their overall environmental practices. Tourist hotels are defined by the Taiwanese government as hotel establishments of over 80 rooms in rural areas and 50 rooms in city areas. Although the 104 tourist hotels represent only 3.7% of the total number of hotels in Taiwan, they account for over half of international guest nights and had a combined revenue of over TWD$43 billion in 2010. Questionnaires were distributed via email to all tourist hotels in Taiwan and 45 valid returns were received, representing an effective response rate of 43.3%. The results of research illustrate the level of understanding of climate change within Taiwanese tourist hotels and identify the specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies that tourist hotels have initiated. Access to such baseline data provides a potentially significant contribution to evaluating the response of the Taiwanese accommodation sector to environment change as well as providing a basis for further comparative studies and benchmarking.     

Globalisation,airline alliances and tourism: A strategic perspective

The forces driving globalisation have impelled the majority of international airlines to enter into strategic alliance arrangements. Strategic alliances have enabled airlines to work around structural problems of the industry, particularly foreign ownership restrictions, national regulatory constraints and constraints on building up networks. The history of alliances, to date, shows them to be changing and unstable. Alliances will probably continue to be a feature of the international airline industry, but the forms and membership of alliances may well change further in the future. Further deregulation and liberalisation of the industry could mean that alliances become less important in the future, if deregulation allows mergers and acquisitions of airlines across national borders. Two scenarios of possible futures are presented, with an assessment of their impacts on tourism, as an aid to strategic analysis.     

Modelling a Tourism Response to Climate Change Using a Four Stage Problem Definition and Response Framework

Climate change has become a hot topic for research, but the response of national governments has been relatively cool, particularly in their support for effective mitigation measures to combat the problem. A review of the scientific literature (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]. (2007). Summary for policy makers. In S. Solomon, M. Qin, Z. Manning, M. Chen, K. Marquia, M. Averyt, M. Tignor, & H. Miller (Eds.), Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press) paints a generally grim view of where the Earth is heading for by the end of the century if effective mitigation strategies are not implemented in the next few years. Mitigation measures of the type required to prevent major environmental damage in the future can only be effective if a global political approach based on agreed levels of climate change gas reduction is implemented. For its part the tourism industry is caught in a trap, unable to adopt meaningful mitigation strategies because of reluctance by consumers to bear the cost of changes that will be required but having to meet the cost of climate change mitigation and adaption strategies when they are introduced in the future. This article proposes a four stage problem definition and response framework with associated models that can be used by the industry to plan for and adapt to climate change both prior to and after the introduction of legislation and policies to combat climate change at the national and international levels.