Optimal monetary reserves for developing countries

Zusammenfassung Optimale monet?re Reserven für Entwicklungsl?nder. — In dem vorliegenden Aufsatz wird ein Modell zur Bestimmung der optimalen Hóhe der monet?ren Reserven für ein Entwicklungsland vorgelegt. Ein optimaler Bestand an W?hrungsreserven wird als der Betrag definiert, der es einem Entwicklungsland ermóglicht, seine bei einem gegebenen festen Wechselkurs entstchenden, tempor?ren und unvorhergeschenen Zahlungsbilanzdefizite zu finanzieren, die sich in einer Planungsperiode ergeben, und gleichzeitig dem Lande einen Vorteil zu verschaffen, der den Alternativkosten der Haltung dieser Reserven entspricht. Das Modell wird auf folgende ausgew?hlte asiatische Entwicklungsl?nder angewendet, für die hinreichende Daten verfügbar sind: Ceylon, Indien, Republik Korea, Pakistan, Philippinen, Taiwan und Thailand.

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Résumé Réserves monétaires optimales pour pays à développer. — Dans cet article on présente un modèle pour déterminer le montant optimal des réserves monétaires d’un pays à développer. On considère comme montant optimal celui qui permet à un pays à développer de financer, à un cours du change fixe donné, les déficits temporaires et imprévus de sa balance des paiements, qui surviennent pendant une période de planification, et qui lui permet en même temps de procurer à ce pays un avantage égal aux co?ts alternatifs de l’entretien de ces réserves. On a choisi, pour l’application de ce modèle, les pays asiatiques de développement pour lesquels on avait les données nécaissaires. Ce sont: Ceylan, Inde, République Coréenne, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan et Tha?lande.

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Resumen La reserva monetaria óptima para paises en desarrollo. — En el presente articulo se presenta un modelo para determinar el volumen óptimo de las reservas monetarias de un país en desarrollo. Este volumen óptimo se define como la reserva que, con tipos de cambios fijos, permita al pais financiar aquellos déficit en la balanza de pagos, temporales e imprevistos, que surjan durante un período de planificación, y que le proporcione a este país un beneficio que equivalga a los ?opportunity costs? engendrados por la mantención de reservas monetarias. Este modelo se aplica a varios países asiáticos, para los cuales existen los datos necesarios, a saber: Ceilán, India, Rep?blica de Corea, Paquistán, Filipinas, Formosa y Tailandia.

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Riassunto Ottimali riserve monetarie per Paesi in via di sviluppo. — Nel presente articolo viene presentato un modello per la determinazione dell’ammontare ottimale delie riserve monetarie per un Paese in via di sviluppo. Un ottimale fondo di riserve valutarie è definita la somma che renda possibile ad un Paese in via di sviluppo di finanziare i suoi deficit temporanei ed imprevisti della bilancia dei pagamenti che si formano in un cambio fisso dato e che risultano in un periodo di pianificazione, e contemporaneamente di procurare al Paese un vantaggio che corrisponda ai costi alternativi del comportamento di queste riserve. Il modello è applicato ai seguenti prescelti Paesi asiatici in via di sviluppo, per i quali sono disponibili sufficienti dati: Ceylon, India, Repubblica di Corea, Pakistan, Filippine, Formosa e Tailandia.

     

Microfoundations and Hicksian monetary theory

Summary John Hicks was the first economist to use a general equilibrium framework as a foundation for a dynamic macroeconomic analysis. A critical assessment of his work in this area is used to evaluate the contributions of the ‘micro-foundations’ discussions of the 1970’s. It is noted that Hicks’s starting point, the question of the role of money in a general equilibrium framework, is precisely where the current debate has arrived some fifty years later. This delay, and the foundations debate, were due in large part to Hicks’s own attempts to interpret Keynes’s theory in terms of his own, original framework. Suggestions and comments from P. Davidson, O. Steiger, and the editor, as well as the participants of seminars in the University of Bremen and the Economics Institute of the Faculty of Statistics of the University of Rome are acknowledged without implication of responsibility.     

Borrowed reserves and deposit variation: The risks to monetary policy

A theory of bank reserves is presented with emphasis on the behavior of borrowed reserves, the Federal Reserve's operating instrument. The theory explains the observed nonlinear relationship between borrowing and the spread between the federal funds rate and the discount rate. The theory shows that borrowed reserves are also a function of deposit variation. A shift in bankers' perceptions of deposit variation can cause borrowed reserves demand to shift so that the level of borrowing is not a reliable indicator of the degree of reserve pressure. Since borrowed reserves are used as the Federal Reserve's operating instrument, problems such as these pose substantial risks to the implementation of monetary policy.     

The theory of monetary integration

Research dealing with the theory of monetary integration is reviewed. After briefly describing the genesis of the theory as foreshadowed in work on optimum currency areas, the paper assesses two main areas of recent research — the analysis of the effects of disturbances on participating countries in a currency area, and reputational considerations. With regard to disturbances, the paper finds that it is difficult to draw clear-out inferences from theoretical work on the optimal degree of exchange rate management and from empirical studies on the effects of shocks. Work on reputational issues is found to suffer from conceptual problems and has generated empirical results that have not supported the hypothesis that participation in a currency area is a sufficient condition to enhance reputation.     

The “monetarist revolution” in monetary theory

Zusammenfassung Die ?monetaristische Revolution? in der Geldtheorie. — Vier Hauptgedanken konstituieren die monetaristische Hypothese: (a) die preistheoretische Erkl?rung des Transmissionsmechanismus, (b) die dynamische Stabilit?t des privaten Sektors, (c) das Vorherrschen der monet?ren Impulse im Bereich der Impulsfaktoren und (d) eine ungef?hre Trennung zwischen Bestimmungsgr?\en mit allokativen und aggregativen Auswirkungen. Diese Konzeption beeinflu\t entscheidend die Beurteilung des geldund finanzpolitischen Instrumentariums. Vor allem verschwindet die zentrale Rolle der Finanzpolitik. Es verschwindet auch die Rechtfertigung für prononcierte Variationen der Geldpolitik. Es erweist sich auch, da\ angelaufene inflatorische Prozesse nur sehr allm?hlich oder nur mit sehr hohen Sozialkosten beendet werden k?nnen. Eine rasche Beendigung von inflatorischen Prozessen wird im allgemeinen hohe Sozialkosten erfordern. Versuche zur raschen Beendigung sind deshalb mit gro\er Wahrscheinlichkeit zum Scheitern verurteilt.

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Résumé La révolution monétariste dans la théorie de l’argent. —Quatre propositions cardinales constituent l’hypothèse monétariste: a. l’explication du mécanisme de transmission au moyen de la théorie du prix, b. la stabilité dynamique du secteur privé, c. la dominance parmi les forces impulsives des impulsions monétaires, d. une séparation approximative des quantités déterminantes aux effets allocatifs de celles aux effets agrégatifs. Cette conception est d’une importance décisive dès qu’on veut juger des instruments de politique monétaire et financière. Surtout n’existe plus le r?le central de la politique financière. De même, n’existe plus de justification pour des variations prononcées de politique monétaire. Il appara?t en outre qu’un processus inflationniste une fois commencé ne peut être arrêté que très graduellement, ou bien avec des co?ts sociaux très élevés. Pour arrêter vite un tel processus il faudra en général des co?ts sociaux élevés. Il est donc extrêmement probable que tout effort de couper court à ces processus ne réussira pas.

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Resumen La ?revolution monetarista? en la teoria monetaria. —Cuatro son los pilares de la hipótesis monetarista, a saber: (a) la explicatión en conceptos de la teoría de precios del mecanismo de transmisión; (b) la estabilidad dinámica del sector privado; (c) la preponderancia de los impulsos monetarios en una economía dinámica; (d) una identificación aproximada de las variables déterminantes con efectos alocativos y agregativos. Este concepto influye de una manera tajante en la apreciaci?n del instrumentario monetario y fiscal. Más que nada, desaparece el papel central desempe∼nado por la politica fiscal. Y desaparece también la justificación para alteraciones pronunciadas en la polftica monetaria. Queda evidenciado que con un proceso de inflaci?n prolongado puede acabarse o bien paulatinamente o bien adoptando un procedimiento drástico que sin embargo entra∼naría un costo económico y social muy elevado. Debido a ello, cabe esperar que todo intento de poner fin rápidamente a la inflaci?n fracasará.

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Riassunto La ?rivoluzione monetaria? nella teoria délia moneta. —Quattro idee principali costituiscono l’ipotesi monetaria: a) la spiegazione teorica dei prezzi del meccanismo di trasmissione, b) la stabilità dinamica del settore privato, c) il predominare degli impulsi monetari nell’ambito dei fattori d’impulso e d) una separazione approssimativa tra grandezze determinant con ripercussioni allocative e aggregative. Questa concezione influenza decisamente il giudizio dell’istrumentario monetario e politico finanziario. Soprattutto scompare il ruolo centrale délia politica finanziaria. Scompare anche la giustificazione per variazioni pronunciate delia politica monetaria. Risulta anche ehe ad avviati processi inflazionistici può essere posto termine soltanto assai gradualmente o solamente con altissimi costi sociali. Una rapida fine di processi inflazionistici richiederà in générale alti costi sociali. Tentativi per la rapida fine sono condannati perciò con grande probabilità all’insuccesso.

     

弗里德曼的货币中性与非中性理论探析

本文对弗里德曼的货币中性与非中性理论进行了研究,主要内容包含弗里德曼的货币中性与非中性理论,弗里德曼对货币中性与非中性的实证检验,弗里德曼基于货币中性与非中性理论的政策等内容。     

Soft budget constraints, bank capital, and the monetary transmission mechanism

This paper investigates the effect of monetary policy in a situation where soft budget constraint problems prevail in the economy and the bank faces a capital requirement. Under these circumstances, an expansionary monetary policy may increase quantity of bank lending without improving the quality and thus may not stimulate economic activity. On the other hand, in order to solve the problem of soft budget constraint problems and to improve the quality of bank lending, the quantity of bank lending should be decreased. Central authorities need to keep this tradeoff in mind when exercising monetary policy and injecting public funds.     

Monetary theory and monetary policy a central banker's view

Summary In this article attention is paid to monetary theory, the relationship between the instruments of monetary policy and other important macro-economic policy instruments, and finally to the real possibilities of pursuing an effective monetary policy. The conclusion from the theoretical analysis is that the total money supply must be considered one of the most important macro-economic policy instruments. An excessive supply of money will sooner or later lead to inflation, to the debasement of money. Therefore the volume of money should be controlled. The use and effectiveness of monetary policy should always be seen in the context of other policy instruments, especially fiscal policy and, under circumstances, wage- and price policy. The possibilities to pursue an effective monetary policy are not unlimited. The effectiveness of such a policy can,e.g., be hampered by external factors. It is vital for a central bank to have the widest possible range of instruments at its disposal.     

Unresolved questions in monetary theory: A critical review

Summary The basic questions of monetary theory remain unanswered. There is little agreement on a definition of money or what assets serve as money, much less on the nature of the private and social costs and benefits of a money economy. Controversy over these questions is reviewed critically. It is concluded that the extensive literature on these matters is not in fact very illuminating. Some new avenues of enquiry are suggested. Generalisation of Clower's exchange matrix suggests that money is only one of a hierarchy of budget restraints, and that money's contribution to efficient price-setting goes beyond its role as numeraire. Finally, questions of control of the money supply are considered.She wishes to thank the participants in the Economic Anthropology Seminar on Means of Payment at University College London for their comments and suggestions, especially Mary Douglas (UCL), Gerald Cohen (UCL), Morris Perlman (LSE) and Charles Goodhart (Bank of England). The comments of Yoram Barzel (University of Washington), Thomas Rymes (Carleton University), and members of the Money Study Group are also gratefully acknowledged. Resposibility for the outcome is entirely the author's.     

The needs for international monetary reserves,exchange rate flexibility,and joining a currency area

Summary The needs for reserves, exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy are derived, the need being the result of an optimization problem. The level of domestic production, its variance and that of the domestic price level have been chosen as criteria of the benefits and costs. The effectiveness and costs of balance of payments adjustment, which appear to be co-determinants of the needs, are expressed in the parameters of an economic model. This shows that the need for reserves displays a one-to-one relation to quantities of the demand for money and to the balance of payments disturbance. Only the latter is a meaningful criterion for joining a currency area. Helpful comments by Mr. G. J. Lanjouw and a referee are acknowledged. This article is a revised and extended version of Jager (1977).     

Reverse-lag reserve accounting,bank behavior,and monetary control: A formal analysis

Conclusion The fundamental conclusion of the analysis contained in this paper is that Laurent's claims concerning the potential monetary control enhancements of the adoption of a reverse-lag reserve accounting system are correct. This result conflicts with those reached by other studies of the monetary control properties of RLA, because the model of RLA used in this paper has been based on an analysis of the microeconomic behavior of banks. The conclusion that monetary control could be improved by adoption of RLA vindicates Laurent's [1984] argument that a “microbank analysis” is fundamental to understanding correctly the workings of an RLA system. An important qualification that prohibits a conclusion that RLA clearly is superior to lagged or contemporaneous accounting is that the monetary control enhancements resulting from adoption of RLA are mitigated to some extent by the existence of the Federal Reserve discount window. Indeed, the relative desirability of RLA as compared to alternative reserve accounting systems cannot be evaluateda priori in the presence of a discount window. Any serious consideration of RLA would need to be prefaced by a careful study of the relationship of the money stock to bank borrowing in an RLA setting. The final version of this paper was written while the author was a visiting economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This paper has benefited considerably from comments and suggestions by Robert Laurent, Kenneth Kopecky, Daniel Friel, Chris Waller, Elmus Wicker, and participants in a seminar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and in the Indiana University Money and Banking Seminar. Initial work on this topic was supported by an Indiana University Summer Faculty Fellowship. Any errors are the author's responsibility, and any views expressed in the paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or its staff.     

The perspective of the SDR's position in monetary reserves on the robustness of optimal portfolio results

Summary To gain an empirical impression of the SDR's attractiveness as a reserve asset, an amended mean-variance analysis is applied to official reserves. The main amendments bear upon the choice of the numeraire and the rejection of both the capital market line and the effective yield's positive marginal utility-frequently assumed in empirical analysis. Comparison of the outcome with that recently obtained by Ben-Bassat shows a large sensitivity of optimal portfolio results for slight differences in assumptions. A second, substantial kind of sensitivity of an asset's position in a portfolio appears to ensue from the influence of other competing functions of reserves.The authors are Professor and Assistant Professor of International Economics, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The research of the second author was financially supported by the Netherlands organization for the advancement of pure research (Z.W.O.), no. 46-108. This research is part of the project Exchange-rate and monetary policy in international dependence. The paper was presented earlier at the conference Research in international finance, Jouyen-Josas, France (June 19 and 20, 1986). Computational assistance by Jeannette Capel, Reiner Gratama, and Martin O. Nijkamp and comments by an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

民营银行:理论回顾与现实思考

<正>一、中国民营银行发展的背景分析1.金融改革与民营银行改革开放以来,中国金融制度从“大一统”的计划体制走向了市场化体制,民营银行也因此应运而生。①国家对银行产权的高度垄断是中国当前民营银行产生的制度背景。罗纳德·麦金龙(1973)和爱德华·肖(1973)的“金融中介论”认为:金融体系与经济发展之间存在着非常强的相互依赖和相互影响关系,发展中国家要扩大储蓄,增加投资,使社会资     

Optimal currency area theory and monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions

In this article, the author analyses the prospects for monetary integration in the Andean and Caribbean regions and stresses the regional specificities that should be taken into account. He points to the necessity to combine economic, political economy and institutional approaches to assess scenarios for monetary integration. The author also argues that the application of optimum currency area theory to regions with specific characteristics (in many respects different from the EU) might produce positive feed‐back effects for the development of OCA theory itself, highlighting specific aspects and implications of the same theory and stimulating theoretical research.     

金融脆弱性理论与银行不良贷款的研究发展

我国的金融体系运行主要以间接金融为主，银行在整个金融体系中占有很大的比重，金融脆弱性的主要因素是银行不良贷款，所以研究金融脆弱性和银行不良贷款的发展状况有很大的借鉴意义。本文首先介绍了金融脆弱性的概念，然后就关于金融脆弱性理论与银行不良贷款的研究发展做了简要的综述。     

A nonnormative theory of inflation and central bank independence

A Nonnormative Theory of Inflation and Central Bank Independence. — The authors study monetary policy under different central bank constitutions when the labor-market insiders set the minimal wage so that the outsiders are involuntarily unemployed. If the insiders are in the majority, the representative insider will be the median voter. The authors show that an independent central bank, if controlled by the median voter, does not produce a systematic inflation bias, albeit equilibrium employment is too low from a social welfare point of view. A dependent central bank, in contrast, is forced by the government to collect seigniorage and to take the government’s re-election prospects into account. The predictions of their theory are consistent with the evidence that central bank independence decreases average inflation and inflation variability, but does not affect employment variability.     

Scrip as private money,monetary monopoly,and the rent‐seeking state in Britain

Scrip—promissory notes payable in goods at company stores—was issued by employers to pay workers, and was an important component of British money during the industrial revolution. As late as the third quarter of the nineteenth century, scrip issued by coal firms, which represented the foregone demand for official currency, was at least 9 to 24 per cent of the value of English country or Scottish banknote issues. In some areas, scrip was 38 per cent of the total wages paid. The state's suppression of this private currency to defend its seigniorage rents was in part the motivation behind the prohibition of the truck system in 1831.     

The theory of bank redlining and discrimination: An exploration

This article addresses a gap in the economic literature on race and credit markets: the theoretical basis of lending discrimination and redlining. It provides a unified model for exploring why discrimination and redlining exist in credit markets. This model is first used to examine three explanations offered by other authors—bigotry, differential risk, and market segmentation. The article then suggests several new explanations of race effects. These emphasize the interlinkage between labor and credit markets; market spillovers due to housing liquidity, refurbishment, and branch location effects; and strategic interaction among lenders.