Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors

This paper attempts to predict the cyclical behavior of exchange rates by using five risk factors, viz., violations of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), relative purchasing power parity (RPPP) and pseudo-parity for equity returns, relative (cross-country) TED spreads and relative term spreads. These factors are found to forecast periods of depreciation or appreciation and subsequent reversals. The estimates based on a dynamic probit model reveal that violations of UIP, RPPP and equity market pseudo-parity exhibit predictive power for currency cycles albeit only at short horizons. The proposed framework can be utilized by policy makers to smoothen the resulting currency misalignment and by investors to form trading strategies and hedge their positions as well as re-balance their carry trade positions.     

The role of covered interest parity in explaining the forward premium anomaly within a nonlinear panel framework

This paper investigates the dynamic properties of uncovered interest parity (UIP) depending on deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) in a nonlinear panel framework. By employing a panel smooth transition regression model, the threshold level of the CIP deviation in which UIP tends to hold is found to be outside the band of inaction where deviations from CIP would fail to be arbitraged away. This paper shows how reversals of UIP observed during the global financial crisis can be, to some extent, accounted for by funding liquidity constraints. Simulation experiments also suggest that the data-generating process from the nonlinear panel model can produce data consistent with the failure of UIP.     

Trade flow lags, monetary and fiscal policy, and exchange-rate overshooting

In this paper model a is constructed that combines trade slow lags with the model in the appendix to Dornbusch's seminal paper on exchange-rate dynamics. Here output is free to vary and inflation is determined by a simple Phillips curve mechanism. It turns out that, because of the trade slow lags, monetary expansion causes interest rates to decline, but the exchange rate need not oveshoot, as one would expect; whereas fiscal policy always produces overshooting. It follows that monetary policy may be a less important source of exchange-rate variability than is commonly believed, and fiscal policy more important.     

Optimal foreign exchange-rate policy for a small open economy

This paper examines optimal exchange-rate policy for a small open economy which faces temporary and pemanent, real and nominal disturbances. It demonstrates that exchange-rate stabilization is desirable if most diturbances are nominal. If most disturbances are real, then stabilization should be greater: (1) the greater the fraction of exchange-rate variance accounted for by permanent disturbances; (2) the greater the information available to firms in setting the wage; (3) the greater the fraction of exchange-rate variance attributed to domestic productivity shocks compared with foreign relative price shocks; and (4) the more elastic is labor supply.     

The restoration of the gold standard after the US Civil War: A volatility analysis

This paper presents a new view on the gold price of greenbacks during and after the American Civil War by analyzing exchange-rate volatility rather than exchange-rate levels. Our empirical investigation detects regimes of high and low volatility alternating in a way that is consistent with a theoretical exchange-rate model in which the rate is primarily driven by investors’ expectations and not by fundamentals. We interpret these findings as evidence that monetary policy makers were surprisingly able to credibly announce the resumption to gold half a year before it actually took place on January 1, 1879. Given the intense political debate about the appropriate design of the United States’ financial system, this is a remarkable result. It indicates that the policy makers’ ability to anchor investors’ expectations is relevant to achieving asset-price stability as well as effectiveness of financial market regulation. The insights from this historical episode should therefore be of interest to policy makers and regulators combating financial crises like the ongoing current debt crises worldwide.     

Should inflation-targeting central banks respond to exchange rate movements?

This paper examines whether it is optimal for inflation-targeting central banks to respond to exchange-rate movements. The paper finds that exchange-rate movements can provide a signal on the developments in the economy that the central bank cannot perfectly observe. The results suggest that when the degrees of exchange-rate pass-through and international financial integration are high, it is optimal for the central bank to pay more attentions to exchange-rate movements. These results however depend on two conditions: 1) the ability of the central bank to observe the true exchange-rate process and 2) the number of real frictions in the model economy.     

The pricing of currency risk in Japan

Previous work on the pricing of exchange-rate risk has primarily focused on US firms and, surprisingly, found stock returns were not significantly affected by exchange-rate fluctuations. In this paper we conduct an in-depth investigation that examines whether exchange-rate risk is priced in the equity market of Japan using an intertemporal asset pricing testing procedure that allows risk premia to change through time in response to changes in macroeconomic conditions. Our multiperiod asset pricing tests show that the foreign exchange-rate risk premium is a significant component of Japanese stock returns. Specifically, the results suggest that currency-risk exposure commands a significant risk premium for multinationals and high-exporting Japanese firms. The currency-risk factor is found to be less influential in explaining the behavior of average returns for low-exporting and domestic firms. However, it is shown to exhibit large return volatility that is likely to be perceived by investors, who wish to control portfolio risk, as an important underlying source of risk. Furthermore, Japanese stock returns are found to be related to the relative distress and size factors above and beyond the covariation explained by the currency-risk factor.     

Real dollar exchange rate under the Bretton-Woods and floating exchange-rate regimes

The focus of the paper is on real exchange rates for the dollar over the period 1957 to 1985. Most such exchange rates followed an almost steplike pattern, showing relatively little movement in the late 1950s and 1960s, falling abruptly and then remaining low in the 1970s and finally in the 1980s rising back to levels close to those that prevailed initially. Contrary to much recent commentary, therefore, the period that appears different is not the last five years but the decade that preceded them. An important factor underlying this pattern of exchange-rate movement, according to results presented in the paper, was the behavior of monetary policy and, hence, inflation in the United States. What remains to be established is the precise mechanism linking money and real exchange rates and the (relative) strength of those links.     

Are capital controls countercyclical?

A growing theoretical literature advocates the use of countercyclical capital control policy, that is, the tightening of restrictions on net capital inflows during booms and the relaxation thereof during recessions. We examine the behavior of capital controls in 78 countries over the period 1995–2011. We find that capital controls are remarkably acyclical. Booms and busts in aggregate activity are associated with virtually no movements in capital controls. These results are robust to controlling for the level of development, external indebtedness, and the exchange-rate regime. They also obtain around the great contraction of 2007.     

The profitability of carry trades

The uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition suggests that carry trades whereby investors borrow in the low interest rate currency and invest in the high interest rate currency should not result in excess profits over the long run. In this paper, we test the significance of the conventional empirical failure of UIP condition. Using the four bilateral pound parities we fail to detect significant excess carry trade profits for the yen, euro and swiss franc–pound parities. The only parity for which the carry trade consistently makes excess profits is the dollar–pound parity. This result is somewhat surprising as this is the currency pair with the lowest interest rate differential. We are extremely grateful for the anonymous referee’s comments on this paper.     

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation

We estimate a small-scale, structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using Bayesian methods. Our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK. We consider generic Taylor-type rules, where the monetary authority reacts in response to output, inflation, and exchange-rate movements. We perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates. The main result of this paper is that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand do not, whereas the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule. This result is robust for various specification of the policy rule. We also find that terms-of-trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles.     

Intervention in the mark/dollar market: the authorities' reaction function

This paper investigates the intervention behavior of the Deutsche Bundesbank in the dollar/DM market over the period 1974 to 1981. An intervention reaction model is developed which stresses the conditioning role of perceived exchange-rate uncertainty. The most important findings from non-linear estimates are: (i) an increase in perceived exchange rate risk shifts the Bundesbank's trade-off between money and exchange-rate control in favor of the former aim, probably due to risk aversion of the managers of the foreign department; (ii) the Bank tries to counter exchange speculation by compressing the expected risk premium; and (iii) the Bank does not completely sterilize.     

Tracking exchange rate management in Latin America

One way to track exchange-rate deviations from its long-run value is to examine numerical patterns in exchange rates to see if those patterns appear to have been subjected to some degree of policy management. We apply Benford's Law to exchange rates in Latin American countries, computing and comparing the distribution of exchange-rate observed values with those of Benford's Law. For most cases we find that the exchange rate for the US dollar does not satisify Benford's Law, however this law holds when the euro is considered. This result may be explained by the fact that these countries are characterized for having different degrees of dollarization and intervention in the US dollar forex market while there is almost no policy intervention in the euro forex market. Our approach is an alternative view of how these characteristics play a role inducing deviations with respect to an implied equilibrium exchange rate.     

Activist monetary policy and exchange-rate overshooting: The Deutsche mark/dollar rate

After a decade of generalized floating, it is clear that bilateral exchange rates exhibit more variability than the economic aggregates—relative prices, incomes, and money supplies—which generally comprise the fundamentals of theories of exchange-rate determination. Dornbusch's overshooting hypothesis is the best known explanation of this phenomenon. This paper shows that accommodative monetary policy (with respect to prices) has the potential to cause the economy to switch from exchange rate overshooting to undershooting. Using constrained maximum likelihood methods, the model is estimated for Germany and the United States. The results provide strong evidence in support of the overshooting hypothesis for the Deutsche mark/dollar exchange rate.     

Optimal and time consistent exchange-rate management in an overlapping-generations economy

This paper analyzes exchange-rate management in a simple overlapping generations model. This framework is used to evaluate alternative policies in terms of their implications for the welfare of individuals in the economy and for generating seigniorage. When the chief concern is to provide a desirable store of value, a policy of fixing the exchange rate does better when shocks are primarily of domestic origin while floating becomes more desirable when foreign shocks predominate. The same is true when the government is concerned with maximizing total expected seigniorage, although more intervention is typically desirable when generating seigniorage is the major objective. When seigniorage concerns are paramount and when the monetary authority cannot establish a reputation for conducting monetary policy in a way that makes the currency a desirable store of value, a national currency may not be viable in the absence of exchange controls. Such controls may be justified in this situation.     

Lessons from the Tequila Crisis

This paper draws several important lessons from the Tequila Crisis of 1994 and 1995. The overriding lesson is that the dynamics of financial crises in emerging market countries differ from those in industrialized countries because institutional features of their debt markets differ. Several policy lessons for emerging market countries also emerge from the analysis: (1) pegged exchange-rate regimes are extremely dangerous, (2) strong prudential supervision of the banking system is critical for prevention of financial crises, (3) financial liberalization must be managed extremely carefully and (4) different policies are needed to promote recovery in emerging market countries than those that are applicable to industrialized countries.     

An empirical study of nonlinear adjustment in the UIP model using a smooth transition regression model

This study considers the nonlinear relationship between the expected exchange rate change and the interest rate differential, using STR models (ESTR and LSTR), with Sharpe ratios, interest rate differentials and exchange rate volatilities as the transition variables. The results generally conclude that UIP holds with the larger Sharpe ratio and higher exchange rate volatility regimes, which is consistent with the transaction costs and limits to speculation hypotheses. However, the interest rate differential (which is generally not used much as a transition variable) when used in this study results in a failure to support UIP in the upper regime, which suggests it is the risk not the pure return that determines the transition.     

The United States as an informed foreign-exchange speculator

US exchange-market interventions have no direct effect on market fundamentals, but they may influence expectations. If intervention has value as a forecast of exchange-rate movements, knowledge that the United States is trading will cause dealers to alter their prior estimates of the distribution of exchange-rate changes. This paper finds that US intervention has had value only as a forecast that recent exchange-rate movements would moderate. Less than half of the interventions, however, seemed successful, and the favorable results were generally confined to two short periods that were characterized by uncertainty about future Federal Reserve policies.     

Why Firms Use Currency Derivatives

We examine the use of currency derivatives in order to differentiate among existing theories of hedging behavior. Firms with greater growth opportunities and tighter financial constraints are more likely to use currency derivatives. This result suggests that firms might use derivatives to reduce cash flow variation that might otherwise preclude firms from investing in valuable growth opportunities. Firms with extensive foreign exchange-rate exposure and economies of scale in hedging activities are also more likely to use currency derivatives. Finally, the source of foreign exchange-rate exposure is an important factor in the choice among types of currency derivatives.     

The transmission of inflation in a small economy: an empirical analysis of the influence of US monetary disturbances on Canadian inflation, 1962–1980

The paper examines the transmission of inflation in Canada during 1962–1980 using an empirical methodology which is very flexible in determining the direction of casuality and the shape of distributed lag effects. The paper finds that US monetary growth exerted an important effect on Canadian inflation during both fixed and flexible exchange-rate periods. The evidence also shows that Canadian monetary growth has remained linked to US monetary growth under the present flexible exchange-rate regime.