Allowing for uncertainty in exogenous shocks to CGE models: the case of a new renewable energy sector

The paper explores the importance of allowing for uncertainty in the magnitude of exogenous shocks in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The shock examined is the introduction of a new onshore wind sector in North East Scotland. A simple analytical model is developed to show how, a priori, the size of the new sector (the model shock) is uncertain and asymmetrically distributed as a result of spatial correlation in costs and returns across potential development locations. The importance of allowing for this uncertainty is tested by comparing the results from a CGE model where the sector size is assumed known with certainty to those from a model where the sector size is a random variable with an asymmetric distribution. The results show the extent to which allowing for uncertainty can influence the magnitude of estimated impacts with some variables more sensitive to the uncertainty than others.     

Us Debt and Deficits: Time to Reverse the Trend

This article provides a primer on budget deficits from the creation of the federal government. Today federal government spending is 24% of GDP (compared with its historical average of 8.8%), fuelling debt of historic levels. The only effective way to reduce debt levels is to cut entitlement programmes and then set a tax rate sufficient, over the course of the business cycle, to fund government spending.     

Dividends and leverage: How to optimally exploit a non-renewable investment

In this paper we model the situation where a non-renewable investment is given, for instance a resource reservoir, and show how to optimally trade-off between dividends and leverage, in order to maximize a performance indicator for shareholders, up to the bankruptcy time. We then study the way market risk (the volatility of the market price of the resource) impacts the optimal policies and the default risk of the company. The moments when the policies are rebalanced are analyzed and we give a measure of the agency costs which appear between the shareholders and the debt-holders.     

Psychological barriers to adjustment and how they affect coping strategies: Western business expatriates in China

Business expatriates currently assigned to the Chinese mainland, mainly from the USA, France, Germany, Australia and Great Britain participated in a survey examining two sets of psychological barriers to adjustment and their association with problem-focused and symptom-focused coping strategies. As presumed, there is a negative relationship between expatriates' perceived inability to adjust and problem-focused coping, while this psychological barrier had no significant association with symptom-focused coping. Unwillingness to adjust has a negative relationship with only one of the problem-focused coping variables, social involvement with host country nationals, whereas the same psychological barrier correlated only negatively with parent-country escapism of the symptom-focused strategies. Implications for Western business expatriates on the Chinese mainland and for their assigning companies are discussed as well as possible avenues for further research.     

How to understand, and deal with dictatorship: an economist's view

This paper explains in simple English some of the main ideas about autocracy first developed elsewhere (e.g., in my book, The Political Economy of Dictatorship (Cambridge University Press, 1998). I use rational choice theory to explain the behavior of dictatorships and develop policy toward them. Issues discussed in this paper include: How do successful regimes stay in power? What determines the repressiveness of a regime? Which type of regime redistributes more, dictatorship or democracy? Can dictatorships be good for economic growth and efficiency? The starting point of my analysis is The Dictator's Dilemma-the insecurity every dictator necessarily experiences about how much support he really has. Because of this, the dictator finds that the tool of repression is not enough to maintain his regime, and successful dictators typically rule with the loyal support of at least some groups of subjects (while repressing others). The levels of repression and support and the nature of the groups that give their support (labor, business, ethnic group, etc.) determine the character of the dictatorship. Among other results discussed, I show that some types of dictators – tinpots and timocrats – respond to an improvement in economic performance by lowering repression, while others – totalitarians and tyrants – respond by raising it. Finally I discuss optimal policy by the democracies toward dictatorships and I show that a single standard-aid or trade with a progressively tightening human rights constraint- is desirable if aid or trade with dictatorships of any type is to lower, not raise, repression. Submitted: February 1999 / Accepted: 10 November 1999     

中国企业的服务意识：怎样从觉醒、增强到优良

服务意识淡漠是制约中国企业成为优秀企业和走向国际化的"瓶颈"之一.中国改革开放20多年来,企业的服务意识已从觉醒到不断增强,但远未达到优良的程度.中国企业要达到优良的服务质量,一是要克服服务意识口头化、服务质量单一化、服务观念狭隘化的误区;二是要重视服务制度建设与服务文化建设;三是要重视服务现代化手段的应用与创新.     

How to learn new tasks: Shop floor performance effects of knowledge transfer and performance feedback

We investigate how learning and the task performance of individuals are affected by different forms of knowledge transfer. Whereas previous research has proven the positive performance impacts of knowledge transfer, self-observation and feedback mechanisms individually, we explore the cumulative effect of these factors on learning and performance. With the help of two laboratory experimental studies reproducing manufacturing tasks that are typical for industrial production, we show that explicit knowledge transfer is superior to other forms of knowledge transfer. Externally provided performance feedback in the form of cost information and non-financial performance indicators has no effect on the order of different forms of knowledge transfer. Moreover, external feedback does not even have an additional significant performance effect on learning new tasks irrespective of the type of knowledge transfer.     

Nonlinearity,nonstationarity, and thick tails: How they interact to generate persistence in memory

We consider nonlinear functions of random walks driven by thick-tailed innovations. Nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and thick tails interact to generate a spectrum of autocorrelation patterns consistent with the observed persistence in memory of many economic and financial time series. Depending upon the type of transformation considered and whether it is observed with noise, the autocorrelations are given by unity, random constants, or hyperbolically decaying deterministic functions, possibly with some independent noise, and thus may decay slowly or even not at all. Along with other sample characteristics, such patterns suggest that these three ingredients may generate the ubiquitous evidence for long memory.     

让创新走进课堂,走进学生的生活——谈谈如何创设情境,激发学生的创新思维

本文通过积累小学数学课堂教学中的实践经验,论述了教师在平时的课堂教学中应该如何创设情境,让学生在平时的教学中积极思考,善于发现,主动创新并及时交流,让学生在每天的学习中,不断迸发创新的火花,使他们的创新思维能力得到有效的提高。     

企业家精神何以落地——创业导向影响竞争优势的路径研究

本文通过327家企业的问卷调查数据,验证了中国背景下创业导向的独特维度构成;利用竞争优势理论,提出并检验了创业导向维度与绩效之间存在的三条中介路径———竞争战略、实质能力、动态能力,并进行全面整合与比较,从而结合内外观点、结合静态与动态观点,系统阐释了创业导向的作用机理。     

How and when do purchasers successfully contribute to the implementation of circular purchasing: A comparative case-study

The transition towards a circular economy puts pressure on organizations to purchase in a circular manner. The aim of this research is to investigate the role, behaviors, and characteristics of purchasers in the circular purchasing process, and the contextual factors that influence circular purchasing. To address this aim, we interviewed purchasers, supervisors and policy makers of seven Dutch organizations. The results of the comparative case-study show that the main roles of the purchaser are those of coordinator, facilitator and advisor, and that the successful circular purchaser can best be described as intrapreneurial, sustainability-minded and knowledgeable about the circular economy. Purchasers are successful in implementing circular purchasing when they share responsibility with budget holders and when they are part of organizations that have processes in place to ensure the inclusion of circularity in their purchasing projects. The drivers that influence the success of circular purchasing can be described as creating a sense of direction and grasping the complexity of the circular economy. Furthermore, the market, organizational, legal, conceptual and cultural constraints that limit the success of circular purchasing were identified.     

权变奖励领导行为如何促进员工建言行为 ——内部人身份认知和心理安全感的作用

权变奖励领导行为是非常重要的领导行为之一,已有的研究证明权变奖励领导行为对员工的态度和行为有着积极的促进作用。基于自我归类理论,通过员工对内部人身份的认知效应,探讨权变奖励领导行为和员工建言行为之间的内在机制,并通过社会信息加工理论来探讨心理安全感在此过程中的调节效应。选取了上海市6家企业共321名员工为样本,运用区间估计Bootstrap法和Johnson-Neyman法进行数据分析和假设验证。结果表明:(1)权变奖励领导行为和员工建言行为正相关;(2)内部人身份认知在权变奖励领导行为和员工建言行为之间起中介作用;(3)心理安全感调节了权变奖励领导行为与内部人身份认知的关系,并进一步调节权变奖励领导行为通过内部人身份认知对员工建言行为的间接影响效应。     

软硬齐抓,服务提升——如何提高汽车经销商服务能力

上世纪90年代末引入中国的4S模式,经历了十余年的发展,成为汽车销售服务的主渠道。投资成本很高的4S模式,光凭销售新车无法满足经销商盈利和厂家渠道覆盖的要求。服务将成为另一个品牌核心竞争力提升的方向,本文通过投资人建店之初高标准严要求的设计与设备投入,聘请职业经理人合理搭建组织机构及对企业人员和培训、管理和流程多个方面的重点关注,采用C—APDC循环的改善思路,提升汽车经销商服务能力。对汽车企业及经销商应有借鉴意义。     

浅谈如何利用VB和FME开发技术转换数据——以香港房屋署数据转换入库项目为例

本文以香港房屋署数据转换入库项目为依托,讲述如何利用FME2011和Visual Basic 6.0进行编程实现数据转换入库,同时讲述了FME2011在编程过程中难点的解决和如何实现Visual Basic6.0与FME之间进行信息传递与参数传递。     

Quality and Quantity in Test Validity: How can we be Sure that Psychological Tests Measure what they have to?

During the twentieth century, many authors have offered their contributions to the controversial subject of test validity. Thus, the concept of validity seems to be quite a simple idea until one looks at the literature on the subject. Validity can be defined as “the degree to which the test actually measures what it purports to measure,” but the question of how to define validity and how to test it is both an old question and a never-ending story. We have to deal with it every time we are asked to use a test that already exists or to construct a new one. Therefore, the article aims at dealing with test validity in order to point out the different (qualitative and quantitative) aspects of validity, which have emerged from empirical research and theoretical reflections. It is thought as a critical review which can be useful both to theoretically oriented and practically inclined psychologists.     

企业财务管理如何以全新模式提升企业价值——价值管理与市值管理的整合

本文将从介绍价值管理与市值管理以及两者的整合为主要内容,在为企业挑选出最适合的财务评估方法的同时,为相关企业提升企业价值、规避潜在的财务风险,进行更好的财务管理提供借鉴。     

训练与教学结合,能力与素质并进——浅析如何在语文课堂上培养师范生的元认知能力

随着课程改革的推进,学生的学习方式产生了实质性的变化,要求教师既要具备探索、合作、自主学习的能力,又要具备良好的教学监控能力。本文结合教学实践,提出从培养元认知能力入手,采取相应措施,促进师范生未来教学监控能力的形成。     

谈谈数控车工实训课如何进行教学——酒泉职业技术学院机电系

随着科学技术的飞速发展,以数控技术为核心的现代制造技术正在逐步取代传统的机械制造技术,各类职业学校纷纷开设了数控加工专业。由于受多种原因的影响,高职高专职业技术学院机电一体化、机电、机械制造专业数控方向专业毕业生的动手能力不尽人意,数控实训教学就是一个值得研究的课题。     

如何有效利用建筑技术经济指标进行施工图设计优化——以某商务办公楼为例

随着城市化建设的不断发展,建设节奏也随之加快,项目建设的周期较之过去也正不断地被压缩。这种现状使得设计者在施工图设计时,对施工图设计的周密性降低,往往对建设成本和施工难易度等方面的考虑不足。这样设计的优化的过程就显得更为重要了,笔者通过多年的实践,以实际的项目为例,从利用建筑经济技术指标的角度探讨施工图设计的优化。     

How mass layoffs are related to lower job performance and OCB among surviving employees in Chile: an investigation of the essential role of psychological contract

This study aimed to investigate how mass layoffs impact surviving employees in organizations. More specifically, this study ascertained the relationships between mass layoffs and employee work behaviors. It was theorized that mass layoffs will be negatively related to employee performance and organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB) through its relationships with job insecurity and psychological contract breach. Moreover, it was expected that perceived manager support would buffer against the negative relations of contract breach with employee performance and OCB. A study among 615 employees in multiple Chilean organizations showed support for the hypotheses: job insecurity and psychological contract breach mediated the relationships between mass layoffs and employee performance and OCB. We also found moderating relationships of manager support, but the relations of breach with performance and OCB were particularly negative when manager support was high, indicating feelings of betrayal among high-support employees in response to contract breach. Moreover, the relation of contract breach with performance was positive for low-support employees, and non-significant for high-support employees. Our study advances understanding of the processes underlying how mass layoffs influence employee behavior in the workplace, through introducing the psychological contract as a way of understanding the relationships.