Publication Bias in the Economic Freedom and Economic Growth Literature

Abstract.  The impact of institutions on economic performance has attracted significant attention from researchers, as well as from policy reformers. A rapidly growing area in this literature is the impact of economic freedom on economic growth. The aim of this paper was to explore publication bias in this literature by means of traditional funnel plots, meta‐significance testing, as well as by bootstrapping these meta‐significance tests. When all the available estimates are combined and averaged, there seems to be evidence of a genuine and positive economic freedom – economic growth effect. However, it is also shown that the economic freedom – economic growth literature is tainted strongly with publication bias. The existence of publication bias makes it difficult to identify the magnitude of the genuine effect of economic freedom on economic growth. The paper explores the differences between aggregate and disaggregate measures of economic freedom and shows that selection effects are stronger when aggregate measures are used.     

诺斯经济增长理论对转变我国经济增长方式的启示

诺斯应用现代产权理论说明制度变迁与经济增长的关系,指出制度变迁是经济增长的重要因素之一,有效率的制度促进经济增长和发展,无效率的制度则会抑制甚至阻碍经济增长和发展。发展中国家普遍面临维持经济增长与提高经济效率两大难题,问题根源在于其基本制度框架普遍缺乏发展市场经济的制度背景。因此,在发展中国家,必须发挥政府的"主导"作用,制订一套公开、透明的规则体系,防止寻租、以权谋私和欺诈行为,为市场经济运作创造出公平合理的制度环境,以利于实现市场经济的顺利转型和高效运作。     

Spatial Inequalities and Economic Growth

Abstract

In this editorial, we summarise and comment on the five articles published in issue 9.2. The five articles are a selection of papers presented at the ‘Workshop on Inequality and Regional Growth and Cohesion’ organised by the Regional Quantitative Analysis research group (AQR-IREA) of the University of Barcelona in November 2011. The first two articles, by De Dominicis and by Monastiriotis, focus on the analysis of regional growth and examine the influence of agglomeration and national development, respectively. The article by Ezcurra and Rodríguez-Pose looks instead at how trade openness impacts on within-country regional disparities, while the article by Kyriacou and Roca-Sagalés examines in turn how regional disparities impact on the quality of government at the national level. The final article by Sacchi and Salotti examines the impact of different forms of decentralisation on income inequalities at the household level. From our perspective, these articles contribute to a better understanding of the complex link between inequality and economic growth, while they also leave open several questions that could clearly stimulate future research on the topic.     

现代服务业：上海经济增长的新动力

本文通过经济增长弹性与就业弹性两个指标,对上海"十一五"规划中提出将优先发展的现代服务业及其主要子行业在上海经济增长中的作用进行了研究。分析认为目前上海第二产业与第三产业对经济的拉动力相当。而现代服务业的拉动力大于传统服务业。近年来,现代服务业的就业弹性均值较大,同时弹性的波动变化很大,这是上海GDP就业弹性近几年波动增大的主要原因。同时,通过对现代服务业中主要子行业的分析,发现现代服务业子行业间就业弹性的变动有着高度的正相关,这将增加现代服务业就业弹性波动对于上海GDP就业弹性波动的影响。     

中国1978～2002年的财政制度、经济增长与转轨:理论与事实

本文在回顾中国经济转轨的历史上,运用动态最优化和博弈论研究了财政制度对中国经济增长和经济转轨的影响,并结合1978～2002年的数据进行描述性分析和统计检验。本文结论认为：中央政府的经济改革从国有企业开始源于经济增长和财政两个方面的原因;在1986-1993年中央政府长期背负财政赤字是1990-1993年通货膨胀的根本原因;“分税制”改革最直接的结果是中央政府宏观调控能力的提高,也影响着货币政策和国有银行改革。     

社会资本与经济转轨

社会资本既具有非正式制度的属性,同时也具有组织的属性,它能够给处于其中的人带来收益。本文认为,社会资本可分为人格化的社会资本和非人格化的社会资本,而经济转轨就是从人格化的社会资本向非人格化的社会资本的转化,社会资本的非正式制度属性决定了经济转轨并不是一蹴而就的,在这个过程中,尤其要重视一些正式制度的建立。     

Financial Markets, Development and Economic Growth: Tales of Informational Asymmetries

Abstract.  The development of financial systems is very often characterised by the development of innovative financial contracts which allow a more efficient allocation of resources and a higher level of capital productivity and economic growth. By exploiting the microeconomic theory of the optimal financial contract under asymmetric information, economists have recently managed to shed new light on the well studied issue of the relationship between financial market development and economic growth. This paper reviews the most recent progress of this literature which shows that the amount of information asymmetry in the credit market and the degree of heterogeneity between borrowers (typically firms) and lenders (typically workers or savers) determine the nature of the financial system. Differences in endowments and in the level of information distribution can give rise to very different financial contracts which affect, and in turn are affected, by capital accumulation and growth.     

经济制度和我国经济增长效率的实证研究

本文根据经济制度和经济增长作用模型,利用一国经济制度和经济增长指标的面板数据（Panel Data）,对经济制度和我国经济增长的作用机制进行实证研究.结果表明,近年来我国经济制度对经济增长不仅是重要而且是有效率的,并且政府对当前的经济增长起着决定性的作用.同时,我国宏观经济治理结构模型表明,我国经济增长存在最佳的经济制度安排,以经济增长为目标的政府治理能够实现我国最优的经济增长.     

二元经济的结构转变与增长分析

近来国外的许多研究利用现代经济增长理论的分析框架,从理论上探讨了结构转变对经济增长的重要性。但相关模型设定不尽符合我国二元经济的现实。本文结合我国实际、通过拓展相关理论模型,构建包含两个代表性个体、考虑劳动力转移成本和政府投入的二元经济增长模型,从理论上探讨我国结构转变与经济增长的关系,指出了政府投入对促进结构转变、加快经济增长的关键作用。进一步,本文还利用该模型解释了经济增长过程中的区域差距和城乡差距的变动,并探讨缩减经济差距的相关对策。     

政府债务对经济增长的影响及作用渠道

基于1960～2010年113个国家的面板数据集,运用系统广义矩动态面板方法和稳健性分析,比较发达国家和发展中国家政府债务经济增长效应的差异,并尝试分析政府债务影响经济增长的渠道。研究结果显示,政府债务对经济增长有非线性影响;发达国家政府债务对经济增长、投资以及全要素生产率均无显著影响;发展中国家对政府债务的直接承受力更弱,但在一个宽松的临界点内,政府债务的增加可以提高投资率。     

数字经济推动区域经济增长的实证研究——基于长江经济带2010-2019年数据

数字经济目前已经成为国民经济发展的重要推动力,研究数字经济对区域经济增长所起到的推动作用具有非常重要的现实指导意义。搭建数字经济发展测评体系和区域经济发展水平测量体系,通过对长江经济带2010-2019年相关指标数据的搜集,测算了长江经济带数字经济发展水平与整体经济发展水平,并对二者之间的耦合关系进行了验证,研究发现,长江经济带的整体数字经济发展水平相对均衡,数字经济对于区域经济增长有显著的推动作用,同时针对长江经济带数字经济助力经济增长给出了管理层面的建议。     

经济结构失衡背景下的中国经济增长质量

利用客观因子分析法与主观打分法相结合,测度了1978-2010年中国经济结构和各要素之间的失衡程度,利用结构方程模型分析了产业结构、投资消费结构、金融结构、区域经济结构与国际收支结构的失衡对于经济增长质量的影响。结果表明：中国经济结构整体失衡水平呈U型变化趋势,五大结构的失衡水平不断恶化。产业结构、投资消费结构、金融结构的失衡程度对经济增长质量产生了负效应,区域经济结构与国际收支结构对于经济增长质量产生正效应。在未来发展中,通过产业结构与投资消费结构、金融结构、区域经济结构、国际收支结构的协调、有序、均衡的调整,实现经济增长质量的稳定、可持续发展。     

Corporatisation and Corporate Governance in China's Economic Transition

China has sought to improve enterprise performance not through privatisation as in other transition economies, but through corporatisation as means of improving corporate governance. Actual governance practices of corporatised Chinese firms are however seriously defective, characterized by excessive power of CEOs, insider control and collusion, lack of safeguards for minority shareholders and weak transparency. These shortcomings are attributable to factors such as cultural and political traditions, uncompetitiveness of markets, poor legal enforcement, weak debt and equity markets, but above all to continued state dominance in ownership and control of the corporate sector and listed companies. Corporatisation, nevertheless, has created a regime conducive to implementing measures for improving corporate governance.     

Institutions and Foreign Subsidiary Growth in Transition Economies: The Role of Intangible Assets and Capabilities

Although transition economies experience significant institutional transformations that vary in their degree and pace, scholarly knowledge of what distinguishes more successful foreign subsidiaries from less successful ones in such environments is limited and inconsistent. We enhance the understanding of this subject by examining how variations in the institutional development of transition economies influence the usefulness of a subsidiary's intangible assets and capabilities and, in turn, their effectiveness in enhancing its growth. Prior research assumes that foreign subsidiaries that operate in any given environment are always better off when they possess strong intangible assets and capabilities. Our analysis of more than 33,000 observations in 14 transition economies challenges this view and enables us to explain why some subsidiaries grow more quickly in less‐developed institutional environments, whereas others more quickly in countries with institutions that are more developed. More specifically, we show that although a subsidiary's intangible assets enhance its growth in transition economies with stronger institutions, these effects are particularly weak or insignificant in transition countries with less developed institutional environments. Conversely, a completely different pattern emerges for subsidiary capabilities, with their marginal effects on subsidiary growth being significantly higher in countries that are institutionally less developed than in transition countries with more developed institutions.     

政治制度和市场广度对经济绩效影响的理论和实证分析

本文运用计量经济学理论中的最小二乘方法,建立了政治制度、市场广度和经济绩效三者之间的线性关系模型。通过分析35个国家的跨国数据样本,得到以下结论:政治制度和市场广度决定了一国的经济绩效。若其他条件相同,一国的腐败程度和二元经济程度越高,其经济绩效越差;另一方面,一国的国内市场与世界市场的融合程度越高,其经济绩效越好。最后,本文针对我国经济的发展提出若干政策建议。     

经济自由与经济增长效应——来自15个转型国家的面板数据分析

本文对美国传统基金会发布的经济自由度指数与转型国家经济增长水平之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,经济自由度与经济增长水平之间没有关系,甚至引入经济自由度后,资本存量和人力资本对经济增长的贡献降低。本文认为,转型国家既要强调经济自由,也要重视影响经济发展的多种因素,特别要重视制度建设的长期性、复杂性。     

Economic Transition and Growth: A Replication

Phillips and Sul (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2009, 24 , 1153–1185) provide an algorithm to identify convergence clubs in a dynamic factor model of economic transition and growth. We provide a narrow replication of their key results, using the open source R software instead of the original GAUSS routines. We are able to exactly replicate their results on convergence clubs, corresponding point estimates and standard errors. We comment on minor differences between their reported results and their clustering algorithm. We propose simple adjustments of the original algorithm to make manual intervention unnecessary. The adjustments allow automated application of the algorithm to other data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

贸易、制度变迁与中国的经济增长

本文讨论了贸易和制度变迁对中国经济增长的影响。我们发现在1978年改革开放之前,贸易对中国经济增长的重要性并不明显,而1978年改革开放之后,贸易对经济增长的作用变得十分突出和重要。贸易发展方面存在的巨大差异,是中国东中西部地区的经济发展差距在改革开放之后开始迅速扩大的重要原因之一。贸易除了直接促进经济发展之外,还通过影响经济领域的制度变迁,从而间接影响经济增长。对外贸易为中国的非国有经济发展提供了动力和机会,推动了中国经济的市场化进程。非国有经济的发展和经济资源配置的市场化等经济领域的制度变迁,是推动中国经济持续增长的重要力量。坚持市场化导向的经济改革,限制行政权力,走向成熟的法治市场经济,是未来中国经济发展的内在要求。     

经济转轨中企业多元化战略的约束与前景展望

我国经济转轨过程中的环境和制度安排特殊,企业多元化行为特点鲜明。经济转轨中企业在实施多元化经营战略过程中,受到收益与成本、经营者自利和政府干预等因素的约束和影响。不同产权类型企业的投资前景不同,应根据自身特点进行多元化投资。     

俄罗斯的结构转型与经济增长

通过对俄罗斯投入产出表的解构,系统研究了俄罗斯向市场经济转型后经济结构的变化特征和主要缺陷。研究发现：并不是俄罗斯经济依赖石油等能源出口,而是能源部门更依赖于出口的拉动;出口需求对商贸和中介服务部门的拉动作用要超过对能源部门的拉动;俄罗斯的经济增长是由消费需求拉动的,其中最重要的是服务业需求;俄罗斯的产业分工体系已经表现出明显的“去重工业化”和“服务化”,这可能是俄罗斯经济结构的最大缺陷。