Do sovereign rating changes trigger spillover effects?

This paper examines whether changes in a particular country's sovereign ratings provided by Standard and Poor's and Moody's trigger a spillover effect on other countries. The analysis focuses on two sets of countries namely where there are trade links between the countries and where there are links between the financial markets of each country. The findings indicate that there are more significant results when the links in financial markets are analysed compared to trade links. Moreover, the results are dependent on which rating is under analysis, that is, Standard and Poor's Local Currency, Standard and Poor's Foreign Currency, Moody's Bank Deposit or Moody's bonds and notes. Finally, there does appear to be a contamination effect for both upgrades and downgrades among the countries.     

Did gold-standard adherence reduce sovereign capital costs?

A commonly cited benefit of the classical gold standard is that it reduced borrowing costs by signaling a country's commitment to financial probity. Using a new dataset, this paper tests whether gold-standard adherence was negatively correlated with the cost of capital. Conditional on UK risk factors, there is no evidence that the bonds issued by countries off gold earned systematically higher excess returns than the bonds issued by countries on gold. This conclusion is robust to allowing betas to differ across exchange-rate regimes; to including other determinants of the country risk premium; and to controlling for the British Empire effect.     

Volatility co-movements between emerging sovereign bonds: Is there segmentation between geographical areas?

This paper analyses the dynamic interrelationship between spreads on selected sovereign bonds issued by 10 emerging countries. It investigates the nature of the volatility transmission in secondary bond markets through conditional covariance estimates obtained by orthogonal methods. This approach, which combines PCA with GARCH volatility modelling, filters away idiosyncratic news and focuses on spreads dynamics driven by common factors. We find convincing evidence of co-movements between spread changes; more within than across geographical areas. Conditional covariations increase in periods of turbulence and subsequently subside. The time-varying minimum variance artificial portfolios, which are used here for model validation, show that, in spite of systemic risk, international portfolio diversification is still a powerful strategy for risk reduction.     

Does sovereign risk matter? New evidence from eurozone corporate bond ratings and zero-volatility spreads

In this paper, we empirically examine if sovereign risk matters for corporate bonds in developed economies. Using a unique panel data sample of 897 corporate bonds from eleven countries within the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), we investigate sovereign and corporate ratings as well as zero-volatility spreads (z-spreads). In the time period from March 2006 to June 2012, we find sovereign risk to be a significant driver of corporate risk. The effect is stronger for companies with domestic revenue structure, for companies that are (partly) owned by the government, and companies active in the utility and transportation sector. Interestingly, the impact of sovereign risk on corporate risk during the acute European sovereign debt crisis period decreases if ratings are examined, but increases if z-spreads are utilized. Rating agencies seem to take a more differentiated view on individual company risk during the sovereign debt crisis, while institutional investors might want to reduce their exposure to a country in financial distress as a whole, regardless of whether sovereign or corporate bonds are held.     

Modelling sovereign credit spreads with international macro-factors: The case of Brazil 1998–2009

This paper develops a macro-finance model of the Brazilian economy and its sovereign debt markets that allows for domestic and international macroeconomic influences as well as swings in investor confidence. It finds significant evidence of common trends in the US and Brazilian economies and bond markets as well as spillover effects from US inflation and business cycles to the Brazilian economy. The US Fed Funds rate influences Brazilian sovereign spreads, as do Brazilian inflation and policy rates. The Brazilian confidence factor dominates the behavior of the spreads during periods of crisis and we find that it also has a powerful effect on the level and volatility of macroeconomic variables. These results suggest that the macro-finance approach could throw light upon the behavior of other economies that are troubled by sovereign risk.     

Sovereign ceilings “lite”? The impact of sovereign ratings on corporate ratings

Although credit rating agencies have gradually moved away from a policy of never rating a corporation above the sovereign (the ‘sovereign ceiling’), it appears that sovereign credit ratings remain a significant determinant of corporate credit ratings. We examine this link using data for advanced and emerging economies over the period of 1995–2009. Our main result is that a sovereign ceiling continues to affect the rating of corporations. The results also suggest that the influence of a sovereign ceiling on corporate ratings remains particularly significant in countries where capital account restrictions are still in place and with high political risk.     

Investors’ heterogeneous beliefs and the impact of sovereign credit ratings in foreign exchange and equity markets

We propose a model in which sovereign credit news from multiple rating agencies interacts with market heterogeneity. The model illustrates that the first messenger discloses new information while additional messengers play an important role of coordinating heterogeneous beliefs. Empirical investigations based on sovereign credit ratings, foreign exchange and equity markets confirm that rating news coordinates investors’ beliefs. Sovereign credit rating news from both types of messenger induces a significant impact on exchange rates and stock indices. Volatility measures increase in response to news from the first messenger while ex-post volatility reduces following news from an additional messenger.     

Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?

This paper assesses the potential influence of the growing CDS market on the borrowing cost of sovereign states during the European sovereign crisis. We analyze the sovereign debt market to ascertain the pattern of information transmission between the CDS and corresponding bond markets. Our methodological innovation is the use of a non-linear specification rather than the linear VECM specification customarily employed. Using a panel smooth transition model during the 2008–2010 period, we find that: 1) linearity tests clearly reject the null hypothesis of a linear transmission mechanisms between the bond and the CDS markets; 2) market distress alters the mutual influence and 3) the higher the distress the more the CDS market dominates the information transmission between CDS and bond markets.     

Why does sovereign risk differ for domestic and external debt? Evidence from Scandinavia, 1938–1948

This study shows empirically that the political costs of sovereign default can differ considerably for domestic and external debt. The analysis uses new evidence from Danish and Swedish bond markets around World War II, a time when markets went from being fully integrated to fully segmented overnight. By linking the exogenous wartime shocks to changes in default costs on domestic and external debt, it is found that these costs explain a significant part of the variation in the sovereign yield spread across markets. The results suggest that governments can choose strategically on which debt, the domestic or the external, to default on, and that this decision hinges on the relative size of the political default costs.     

Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?

In this paper, we assess the movements of euro area sovereign bond yield spreads vis-à-vis the German Bund as processes specified across different levels of volatility and subject to movements in asset prices and economic conditions. The determinants we use are grouped into domestic and euro-area aggregates, thus allowing us to derive results on their relative explanatory power and compare them across time and the spectrum of countries. We find that volatility influences the deterministic processes of the euro area sovereign spreads and that identical determinants have effects on spreads that vary considerably across countries. Furthermore, we find that variables reflecting investment confidence conditions and perceptions for the upcoming economic activity are significant determinants and their significance remains, to a large extent, even when controlling for fiscal variables.     

Is bank default risk systematic?

We evaluate the impact of commonly used indicators of bank distress on broad (i.e. sector and country) risks. This issue deserves special attention in the banking industry where there is a strong degree of interconnectedness among institutions and the default of a single bank may cause a cascading failure, which could potentially bankrupt the entire system. Using several measures of individual bank risk our results show that these measures have a direct impact on European banking (i.e. systemic) stock market risk. We also provide strong evidence suggesting that, for listed banks, default risk tends to be systematic (i.e. non-diversifiable).     

More punishment, less default?

The extent of lender recourse following contractual default varies greatly across economies. Intuitively, one would expect these differences to matter for default behavior at the micro-economic level and for equilibrium quantities. The objective of this paper is to study an equilibrium model in the spirit of Dubey et?al. (Econometrica 73(1):1–37, 2005) where the implications of recourse for default patterns can be characterized. Under plausible conditions, broader recourse causes yields at origination and default rates to fall for a given set of observable borrower characteristics. On the other hand, the effect of broader recourse on average default rates and the quantity of loans issued is deeply ambiguous because the composition of the pool of borrowers can change. Raising the fraction of assets subject to recourse can well increase equilibrium default rates. I discuss the implications of these results for how one should test empirically whether recourse statutes matter for loss severity rates and the frequency of default in secured loan markets.     

Does the source of debt financing affect default risk?

We examine whether the source of debt financing is important for assessments of firms’ default risk. This study reveals that during the 2007–2010 financial crisis, firms that depend mainly on financing from banks suffer higher increases in default risk than do firms with no such dependence. Conversely, firms that rely solely on financing from public debt markets do not experience significant increases in default risk. These findings suggest that the bank supply shock theory explains the transmission of financial shocks to the real economy. Finally, firms that depend on bank financing cannot offset the adverse impacts of bank lending shocks by substituting bank loans with publicly traded debt.     

American step-up and step-down default swaps under Lévy models

This paper studies the valuation of a class of default swaps with the embedded option to switch to a different premium and notional principal anytime prior to a credit event. These are early exercisable contracts that give the protection buyer or seller the right to step-up, step-down, or cancel the swap position. The pricing problem is formulated under a structural credit risk model based on Lévy processes. This leads to the analytic and numerical studies of several optimal stopping problems subject to early termination due to default. In a general spectrally negative Lévy model, we rigorously derive the optimal exercise strategy. This allows for instant computation of the credit spread under various specifications. Numerical examples are provided to examine the impacts of default risk and contractual features on the credit spread and exercise strategy.     

Beating market expectations and the pricing of firms’ probability of default

This study explores the impact of beating analysts' forecasts on investors' perceptions about firms' default probability. The information contained in analysts’ forecasts, both earnings and revenues, provides additional information to investors in pricing CDSs. While previous research has focused on the impact of beating analysts’ earnings forecasts, this study shows that firms that beat analysts' revenue forecasts also experience, on average, a decrease in the CDS premium around the earnings announcement date. This study also documents that the effect is stronger when firms beat/miss both earnings and revenue forecasts. When firms beat (miss) earnings and miss (beat) revenues, the effect of earnings is the dominant signal. These effects are stronger for firms with high levels of default risk.     

The value of the ‘swap’ feature in equity default swaps

When equity default swap (EDS) contracts were first included in a rated collateralized debt obligation (CDO) deal, some critics doubted the originality of the product. In fact, EDSs are equivalent to already existing binary barrier options on equity, except the premium is not paid upfront, but over time, and conditional on the trigger event not having occurred. Therefore, as opposed to existing options, the buyer of an EDS: (1) postpones payment for protection, and (2) purchases not only protection against a sharp drop in the price of equity, but also the right to cease payments in case the barrier is hit. This paper derives the closed-form pricing formula for equity default swap spreads under the Black–Scholes assumptions, and then quantifies the fraction of the EDS spread actually due to the ‘swap’ feature of the contract for plausible parameter values. It is found that the extra spread due to the swap nature of EDSs is economically significant only for high volatility, high trigger levels, and long time-to-maturity. The impact of interest rates on the value of the ‘swap’ feature is almost exclusively due to the postponement of payments.     

What happens after corporate default? Stylized facts on access to credit

In this paper, we investigate what happens to firms after they default on their bank loans. We approach this question by establishing a set of stylized facts concerning the evolution of corporate default and its resolution, focusing on access to credit after default. Using a unique dataset from Portugal, we observe that half of the corporate default episodes last 5 quarters. Most firms continue to have access to credit immediately after resolving default, though only a minority has access to new loans. Firms have more difficulties in regaining access to credit if they are small, if their default was long and severe, if they borrow from only one bank or if they default with their main lender. Further, half of the defaulting firms record another default in the future. We observe that firms with repeated defaults are, on average, smaller and experience longer and more severe defaults.     

Demand–supply imbalances in the credit default swap market: empirical evidence

This paper empirically examines demand–supply imbalances in the credit default swap (CDS) market and provides evidence of its effect on the CDS spread dynamics. Analysis is conducted on a large and homogenous data set of the 92 non-financial European companies with the most quoted Euro-denominated CDS contracts during the 2002–2008 period. Main findings indicate that short-term CDS price movements, not related to fundamentals, are positively affected by demand–supply imbalances when protection buyers outstrip protection sellers. Results illustrate that CDS spreads reflect not only the price of credit protection, but also a liquidity premium for the anticipated cost of unwinding the position of protection sellers, especially during stress periods.