Risk-adjusted profitability and stability of Islamic and conventional banks: Does revenue diversification matter?

Revenue diversification in banking offers opportunities and threats. Recent academic research shows that disadvantages may outweigh advantages, in terms of both volatility of profitability and bank riskiness. Literature on this topic in emerging countries and in the field of Islamic finance is limited: our aim is to empirically test if revenue diversity affects Islamic banks differently than conventional institutions. We analyze the impact of income diversification on profitability and firm-risk of banks in selected OIC countries, in the period 2007–2016, using a comprehensive dataset of 47 Islamic and 154 conventional banks, through diverse measures and econometric approaches. We find that diversification provides lower rewards for Islamic banks than conventional banks, with effects that are stronger for accounting-based measures rather than market-based metrics. Shares of non-interest income positively contribute to profitability regardless of the business model, whereas income diversification shows a not significant effect on the risk-adjusted profitability of Islamic banks. Moreover, we do not find any relationship between income diversification and stability for both conventional and Islamic banks.     

Uncertainty and R&D investment: Does product market competition matter?

In recent years, the question of how uncertainty influences corporate decisions has received greater interest among academics, researchers, and corporations. This study is an attempt to investigate how uncertainties (firm-specific uncertainty (fsu), market-based uncertainty (mu), and economic policy uncertainty (epu)) influence research and development (R&D) investment and to further examine whether this relation is moderated by product market competition across firms of different sizes. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms covering 2000–2017, this study applies a two-step system GMM model to perform estimations and control for endogeneity issues. The findings show that uncertainties (fsu, mu, and epu) negatively influence R&D investment and that this negative relationship is more prominent for firms operating in competitive industries. In concentrated industries, however, the negative impact of uncertainty is mitigated for large firms, which have more internal resources and better access to external financing. This study contributes to real options theory by illustrating how different forms of uncertainty embedded in a firm’s internal and external environment reduce R&D investment, and by indicating how this relationship is moderated by product market competition.     

Who benefits from financial liberalization? Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies

In recent decades most countries have implemented significant reforms to foster financial liberalization. This article examines to what extent these reforms have benefited advanced economies and emerging market economies. We focus on four groups of countries: the G-7, other European countries, Latin America and East Asia over the period 1973–2006. We find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the different forms of financial liberalization affected growth differently in the four groups of countries. The main finding is that the benefits of financial liberalization are more important for advanced economies. In contrast, financial liberalization in emerging market economies has a weak positive impact on growth when its scope is limited, whereas full liberalization has been associated with slower economic growth.     

Does high profitability improve stability for European banks?

We investigate whether high profitability influences the occurrence of bank distress in Europe. We utilize four sets of indicators for high profitability in logit models to explain bank distress with a hand-collected dataset of European bank distresses. We find that high profitability does not reduce the occurrence of bank distress. In contrast, we obtain limited evidence that high profitability can lead to increase such occurrence through a time horizon of about 3 years. Our findings therefore challenge the view that bank profitability should be promoted to favor bank stability.     

Does reputation matter? Evidence on spatial competition in China's bond market

This study investigates the effect of market competition on the reputational concerns of credit rating agencies (CRAs) in the Chinese bond market. We find credit ratings increase when the market share distance between an incumbent CRA and its closest peer competitor decreases. This spatial competition effect only exists at the provincial level. We also find the market competition deteriorates the ability of ratings to predict future bond defaults, while the correlation between credit ratings and market-implied credit spreads is unaffected. Our findings suggest that because of the market inefficiency in emerging economies, CRAs privilege current profits over reputational concerns.     

Does exposure to product market competition influence insider trading profitability?

We examine whether and how product market competition affects insider trading profitability. We empirically show that the insiders of firms in highly competitive industries make higher abnormal profits. Our identification strategy includes both a quasi-natural experiment setting and an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity concerns. We also run an extensive array of robustness checks and find that our baseline results remain substantially unchanged. Our cross-sectional analyses show that insider trading profitability is more pronounced for firms with: a higher level of trade secrecy, a higher level of R&D, a lower level of management voluntary disclosures, less readable 10-K reports and highly tone-ambiguous financial disclosures. We also find that our results are robust to the inclusion of corporate governance mechanisms. Overall, this study is consistent with the theoretical predictions that support the information asymmetry and proprietary cost channels of competition and that increases in competition lead insiders to undertake more rent-seeking activity.     

Is the market valuation of banks’ loan loss provision conditional on auditor reputation?

We examine how auditor reputation conditions the market valuation of banks’ loan loss provision (LLP). The inherent uncertainty associated with and discretion permitted in estimating the LLP contributes to information asymmetry. The auditor’s certification and monitoring roles influence firm value by mitigating this information asymmetry. We examine two aspects of auditor reputation, auditor type (Big 5 vs. non-Big 5) and auditor expertise, in the banking industry. We find a significant, positive association between the discretionary component of LLP and stock return for banks audited by the Big 5 auditors. Further analysis indicates that auditor expertise within banking and not auditor type drives this significant, positive association. Overall, our results are consistent with auditor expertise in the banking industry mitigating information asymmetry between bank managers and investors and enhancing the information conveyed by discretionary loan loss provision.     

The market reaction to cross-listings: Does the destination market matter?

This paper examines (i) whether market reactions to cross-listings differ across destination markets and (ii) to what extent the following explanations for value creation around cross-listings can account for differences in market reactions across cross-listings on various destination markets: overcoming market segmentation, increased market liquidity, improved information disclosure, and better investor protection (“bonding”). We analyze 526 cross-listings from 44 different countries on eight major stock exchanges and document significant announcement returns of 1.3% on average for cross-listings on US exchanges, 1.1% on London Stock Exchange, 0.6% on exchanges in continental Europe, and 0.5% (not significant) on Tokyo Stock Exchange. We find evidence consistent with improved disclosure and bonding creating value for cross-listings on US exchanges, while overcoming segmentation and bonding are associated with higher announcement returns on the London Stock Exchange. The evidence is mixed for continental European exchanges and for Tokyo. Our results highlight the role of the destination market in value creation around cross-listings.     

Board structure and market performance: Does one solution fit all?

We investigate the relationship between internal corporate governance and market performance across multiple countries, utilizing a comprehensive data set comprising 77,440 firm observations from 15 European Union countries over the period 2002-2018. Specifically, we examine the impact of board characteristics, including size, independence, gender diversity, CEO duality, and classified boards, on market performance. Our findings reveal that CEO duality is generally negatively related to returns, whereas independent directors and board diversity are positively related to market performance. We observe a positive association between staggered boards and market performance as well as Tobin's Q, aligning with the EU's emphasis on stakeholder investments. Upon analyzing the data at the country level, we identify that the links between board structure and performance vary by country, and there isn't a single variable that is consistently related to market returns or Tobin's Q. These divergent findings indicate that there is no universally applicable corporate governance solution that can be recommended for companies throughout Europe.     

Does cyber tech spending matter for bank stability?

CyberTech has drawn academic attention in the aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC) as banks were forced to embrace CyberTech more aggressively to cope with market competition after the crisis. Banks can improve their operational efficiency and quality of service by relying on CyberTech, but they become more vulnerable to cybersecurity. Thus, increasing investment in CyberTech becomes a strategic necessity for banks to combat cybersecurity hazards. The study investigates how disruptive digital transformation affects bank stability. In particular, it examines whether the law of diminishing marginal returns from overspending on CyberTech affects bank stability. Based on a global sample from 43 countries, we find that an increase in CyberTech spending above the threshold level adversely affects the stability of banks. The main reason behind the adverse effect of CyberTech spending on the stability of banks is that banks take more than the proportional risk for every dollar they spend on disruptive CyberTech after they cross a threshold level of spending. While results persist across sub-samples, our results indicate two important channels of technological regimes – a diminishing returns regime and an increasing returns regime. The diminishing returns regime improves bank stability through more aggressive spending on technology, and the increasing returns regime makes banks more unstable due to excess spending on disruptive CyberTech. The study has implications for cybersecurity and sustainable CyberTech spending for banks.     

Information sharing,credit booms and financial stability: Do developing economies differ from advanced countries?

This paper analyses the impact of credit information sharing on financial stability, drawing special attention to its interactions with credit booms. A probit estimation of financial vulnerability episodes—identified by jumps in the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans—is run for a sample of 159 countries divided into two sub-samples according to their level of development: 80 advanced or emerging economies and 79 less developed countries. The results show that: i) credit information sharing reduces financial fragility for both groups of countries; ii) for less developed countries, the main effect is the direct effect (reduction of NPL ratio once credit boom is controlled), suggesting a portfolio quality effect; iii) credit information sharing also mitigates the detrimental impact of a credit boom on financial fragility but this result holds only for advanced and emerging countries and for household credit booms; and iv) the depth of information sharing has a negative impact on the likelihood of credit booms (but not the coverage of IS).     

Does consideration matter to China’s split share structure reform?

We investigate the share market response to China’s split share structure reform and find average negative daily return around the government announcement on 29 April 2005. However, there is a turnaround at individual companies’ decision to implement the reform where we find positive and significant average daily return, contingent on the type of consideration. We attribute this change in market sentiment to the company’s announcement that the reform will involve the payment of consideration to holders of tradable A‐shares. Our results also show that holders of tradable A‐shares earn significant abnormal daily returns when companies propose to pay in cash or warrants or combine any of these payment methods with bonus shares.     

Stock market return predictability: Does network topology matter?

This paper provides new evidence for the predictability of excess market portfolio returns using a network approach. In particular, this article introduces a measure of interconnectedness to capture the interrelationship of returns of 100 largest stocks in S&P500 during 1990–2014. In the financial network literature, the interconnection of a stock network is often regarded as a channel through which an idiosyncratic shock propagates. The idiosyncratic risk propagation is crucial to the debate over the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and market returns because the idiosyncratic risk is not always diversified away. Rather, the network can sometimes amplify the effect of the idiosyncratic risk to cause aggregate fluctuation. In accordance with this theoretical argument, I empirically show that the network topology, measured by diameter, works together with the idiosyncratic risk, measured by average stock variance, to affect the market portfolio returns. This relationship persists after controlling for well-known variables known to forecast the stock market returns.     

Conditional portfolio allocation: Does aggregate market liquidity matter?

This paper investigates how aggregate liquidity influences optimal portfolio allocations across various US characteristic portfolios. We consider short-term allocation problems, with single and multiple risky assets, and use the nonparametric approach of Brandt (1999) to directly express optimal portfolio weights as functions of aggregate liquidity shocks. We find, first, that the effect of aggregate liquidity is positive and decreasing with the investment horizon. Second, at daily and weekly horizons, this effect is weaker on allocations in large stocks and gets stronger as we move toward small stocks, regardless of the other stock characteristics, suggesting that liquidity is the main concern of very short-term investors. Third, conditional allocations in risky assets decrease and exhibit shifts toward more liquid assets as aggregate liquidity worsens. Overall, conditioning on aggregate liquidity yields empirical results that are consistent with the so-called flight-to-safety and flight-to-liquidity episodes. Finally, we propose a simple tactical investment strategy and show how aggregate liquidity information can be exploited to enhance the out-of-sample performance of long-term strategies.     

Bank ownership and stock price informativeness. Does politics matter?

This study investigates the effects of ownership on the informativeness of the stock prices of 636 commercial banks from 59 countries for 2002–2014. We find strong and robust evidence that state ownership is associated with stock prices having less information in developing countries. This result is consistent with the conjecture that state ownership is associated with a less transparent environment that discourages investors from trading on private information. Furthermore, we find that politics magnifies the effect of state ownership on the informativeness of stock prices during election years. In particular, we show that stock prices are less informative for state ownership in countries with civil law or parliamentary systems. These findings shows that the political channel plays an important role in determining the expropriation by government shareholders, especially in developing countries.     

Does equity market timing have a persistent impact on capital structure? Evidence from China

This paper uses the change in individual securities accounts as a measure of equity funding supply to examine whether the persistent timing effect on capital structure exists for the Chinese equity market. This new equity timing measure avoids previous criticisms over a timing measure not being independent of a firm's characteristics of capital structure. Our empirical results show that this new measure is an effective market timing variable for issuing equity in the Chinese equity market, and that a persistent effect of equity market timing on firm capital structure exists for more than 7 years. This paper offers evidence that the market conditions of equity funding supply play an important role in corporate financing decisions in China.     

Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies

This study investigates the relationship between interest rate, interest rate volatility, and banking sector development in 12 emerging market economies located around the world. For this purpose, panel data analysis was conducted using annual data from 1980 to 2014. In parallel to the financial development literature, which asserts that banking sector development, as a broad and complex concept, cannot be measured by a single indicator, this study adopts a set of measures of banking sector development. The empirical results reveal that while interest rate has a positive impact on all banking sector indicators, this relationship weakens at higher interest levels, showing a concave relationship between interest rate and banking sector development. In addition, the empirical results provide evidence that interest rate fluctuations have a negative impact on most banking sector development (BSD) indicators, suggesting that the banking sectors of emerging countries are vulnerable to interest rate risks. Furthermore, all measures of the banking sector indicators are positively affected by economic growth rates, while this association weakens at higher levels of income, confirming a nonlinear relationship. Thus, the results have important implications for policymakers in improving the banking system and promoting the economic growth of these emerging economies.     

Does money matter in developing economies? Some evidence from the Solow estimator

Building on the Solow seminal approach for estimating the output elasticity of money stock and on Startz's (1984) implementation of it, this article explores the role of money in the production process in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Due to lack of necessary data on interest rates in these countries, we use alternative measures of credit constraints as proxies. In contrast to Startz's conclusion for the U.S., our empirical results systematically reveal significant output elasticities of money in each of the three developing countries under study. This is consistent with the neoclassical monetary theory and its incorporation of real money balances as an important input in the production function. Moreover, as the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis contends, money appears to be complementary to physical capital in the three developing countries. Hence, policy-makers must not hinder the development of their money (financial) markets if they desire to promote economic growth.     

Does government report readability matter? Evidence from market reactions to AAERs

We investigate whether market reactions to Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (AAERs) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) vary with different levels of readability in the AAERs. After controlling for the complexity of an AAER report and the severity of the enforcement case, we find that when the AAER is more difficult to read, with readability measured based on the directives of the Plain Writing Act of 2010, markets react more negatively to the AAER announcement. Cross-sectional tests indicate that the effect of AAER readability is attenuated by investor sophistication and firm visibility, whereas the effect is more pronounced when AAER firms are exposed to greater uncertainty. Contrary to conventional wisdom that linguistically complex disclosures receive reduced market reactions, our results suggest that complex AAER announcements could trigger more negative stock price reactions, since investors under uncertainty and ambiguity tend to assume the worst and bid down the market value of AAER firms. Our study offers meaningful implications for regulators concerned with writing clarity in government documents.     

Market- vs. bank-based financial systems: Do rights and regulations really matter?

In some countries, banks are firms' key source of financing. In others, firms look mainly to financial markets to meet their financial needs. Why should this be so? This paper provides an explanation tied to legal traditions. Civil-law courts are less effective than their common-law counterparts in resolving conflicts because they have less flexibility in interpreting the laws and creating new rules. Banks emerge in these economies as primary contract enforcers, leading to bank-oriented financial systems. Furthermore, because common-law courts enforce laws effectively, providing them with more detailed creditor and shareholder protection laws has a greater impact on the development of financial markets compared with civil-law systems.