Exchange rate determination and inter-market order flow effects

The dependence of foreign exchange rates on order flow is investigated for four major exchange rate pairs, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, across sampling frequencies ranging from 5 min to 1 week. Strong explanatory power is discovered for all sampling frequencies. We also uncover cross-market order flow effects, e.g. GBP exchange rates are very strongly influenced by EUR/USD order flow. We proceed to investigate the predictive power of order flow for exchange rate changes, and it is shown that the order flow specifications reduce RMSEs relative to a random walk for all exchange rates at high-frequencies and for EUR/USD and USD/JPY at lower sampling frequencies.     

Informed trading,information uncertainty,and price momentum

In this paper we investigate the effects of informed trading (PIN) and information uncertainty in determining price momentum. We find that trading strategies based on buying high-uncertainty good-news stocks and shorting high-uncertainty bad-news stocks work well when limited to high-PIN stocks, while stocks with low-PIN do not exhibit price continuations, even when the uncertainty level of those stocks is high. In contrast, momentum returns are always significant for high-PIN stocks, irrespective of information uncertainty. Overall, we show that the informed trading effect is both independent of and stronger than that of information uncertainty in determining price momentum.     

Multi-market trading and arbitrage

We measure arbitrage opportunities by comparing the intraday prices and quotes of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and other types of cross-listed shares in U.S. markets with synchronous prices of their home-market shares on a currency-adjusted basis for a sample of 506 U.S. cross-listed stocks from 35 different countries. Deviations from price parity average an economically small 4.9 basis points, but they are volatile and can reach large extremes. Price parity deviations and their daily changes are positively related to proxies for holding costs that can impede arbitrage, even after controlling for transactions costs and foreign investment restrictions.     

Multimarket trading and corporate bond liquidity

Global bonds are international securities traded and settled efficiently in multiple markets. This paper examines global bonds to evaluate the effects of multimarket trading on corporate bond liquidity and pricing. The results show that global bonds are significantly more liquid than similar-sized domestic bonds of the same issuers, and their liquidity advantage is reflected in higher market valuations. These findings support microstructure models that predict a positive relation between the number of potential investors and liquidity in over-the-counter markets, and help explain the increasing use of global bonds by corporate issuers.     

Order flow, bid-ask spread and trading density in foreign exchange markets

This paper examines the implications of market microstructure for foreign exchange markets. We argue that the usual order flow model needs to be recast in broader terms to incorporate the transaction costs of liquidity and the limitation of price discovery through order flows that involve low trading density currencies. Using a daily data set, we find that order flows are inadequate when it comes to explaining the changes in the low trading density currencies. Alternatively, within the high trading density, both order flows and bid-ask spreads significantly affect the foreign exchange rate returns. Our findings suggest that the order flow model is better at incorporating these microstructure effects except for some currencies with a very high level of trading density.     

Aggregate uncertainty, money and banking

This paper addresses the problem of monitoring the monitor in a model of money and banking with private information and aggregate uncertainty. There is no need to monitor a bank if it requires loans to be repaid partly with money. A market arises at the repayment stage and generates information-revealing prices that perfectly discipline the bank. This mechanism also applies when there exist multiple banks. With multiple banks, competition of private monies improves welfare. A prohibition on private money issue not only eliminates money competition but also triggers free-rider problems among banks, which is detrimental to welfare.     

Immigration and equity home bias

Why do investors hold such large positions in domestic equity when there are gains to be made from international diversification? This equity home bias puzzle has received considerable attention in the literature, with asymmetric information on domestic and foreign assets (whether by individual choice or by market imperfection) emerging as the most plausible explanation. What happens when we consider a subset of investors whose information sets are closer to investors in foreign countries? I assess the relationship between immigration and equity home bias and find that inward migration is positively correlated with increased foreign equity positions and reduced home bias. Looking across income groups, outward migration reduces home bias for relatively rich countries, but may actually increase home bias when migration occurs to or from a developing country. These results suggest that immigration generates a positive externality of increased information flows for developed countries, but not for developing nations. The effects of immigration on investment are strongest within the Euro-Zone, suggesting that this positive externality of immigration is largest when barriers to portfolio diversification (such as currency risk) are lowest.     

Currency bid-ask spread dynamics and the Asian crisis: Evidence across currency regimes

Using a sample of 21 emerging and developed country currencies, we evaluate the impact of the Asian crisis on bid-ask spreads. While the crisis had widespread and uniform volatility effects, the spread effects were not uniform across emerging and developed country currencies. For Asian emerging markets, spreads widened and spread volatility increased significantly during the crisis, while developed markets spreads narrowed and spread volatility decreased significantly. We investigate the impact of more flexible and less flexible exchange rate regimes on bid-ask spreads using panel data. In general, countries with tightly-managed regimes have significantly lower spreads than countries with more freely-floating regimes, while controlling for the influence of other factors such as volatility. Asian developing market spreads are higher than spreads of the other countries, again, after controlling for the influence of other factors.     

Trading activity,dealer concentration and foreign exchange market quality

We study the relation between foreign exchange market quality and both trading activity and dealer concentration by considering two currency pairs with significant differences along both dimensions – the Euro–US dollar and Canadian dollar–US dollar. A variance ratio test reveals over-reaction in currency prices, but that this is smallest when trading activity is high and dealer concentration at its peak. A GARCH model shows that over-reaction declines as trading activity and dealer concentration increase, with the results being stronger for the Euro. Our results confirm that trading activity is an important determinant of market quality, but also point to a significant role for dealer concentration.     

Combining mean reversion and momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets

The literature on equity markets documents the existence of mean reversion and momentum phenomena. Researchers in foreign exchange markets find that foreign exchange rates also display behaviors akin to momentum and mean reversion. This paper implements a trading strategy combining mean reversion and momentum in foreign exchange markets. The strategy was originally designed for equity markets, but it also generates abnormal returns when applied to uncovered interest parity deviations for five countries. I find that the pattern for the positions thus created in the foreign exchange markets is qualitatively similar to that found in the equity markets. Quantitatively, this strategy performs better in foreign exchange markets than in equity markets. Also, it outperforms traditional foreign exchange trading strategies, such as carry trades and moving average rules.     

Locals, foreigners, and multi-market trading of equities: Intraday evidence from Thailand

We study stock market orders and trades in a developing country, Thailand, where foreign ownership limits partially segment local and foreign investors into two distinct markets. Some foreigners forgo voting rights and distributions to trade on the “local board”, while some locals forgo such benefits and pay a price premium to trade on the “foreign board”. Regardless of nationality, these cross-market traders typically submit orders when liquidity is high, fill orders at relatively beneficial prices, exploit patterns in stock prices across markets, display profitable holding-period returns, and enhance price discovery. This suggests that skilled, informed trading that affects market quality does not depend on trader nationality.     

The Euro and European financial market dependence

A time-varying copula model is used to investigate the impact of the introduction of the Euro on the dependence between 17 European stock markets during the period 1994–2003. The model is implemented with a GJR-GARCH-MA-t model for the marginal distributions and the Gaussian copula for the joint distribution, which allows capturing time-varying, non-linear relationships. The results show that, within the Euro area, market dependence increased after the introduction of the common currency only for large equity markets, such as in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Structural break tests indicate that the increase in financial market dependence started around the beginning of 1998 when Euro membership was determined and the relevant information was announced. The UK and Sweden, but not other European countries outside the Euro area, are found to exhibit an increase in equity market co-movement, which is consistent with the interpretation that these countries may be expected to join the Euro in the future.     

Bounds and prices of currency cross-rate options

This paper derives the pricing bounds of a currency cross-rate option using the option prices of two related dollar rates via a copula theory and presents the analytical properties of the bounds under the Gaussian framework. Our option pricing bounds are useful, because (1) they are general in the sense that they do not rely on the distribution assumptions of the state variables or on the selection of the copula function; (2) they are portfolios of the dollar-rate options and hence are potential hedging instruments for cross-rate options; and (3) they can be applied to generate bounds on deltas. The empirical tests suggest that there are persistent and stable relationships between the market prices and the estimated bounds of the cross-rate options and that our option pricing bounds (obtained from the market prices of options on two dollar rates) and the historical correlation of two dollar rates are highly informative for explaining the prices of the cross-rate options. Moreover, the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the analytical properties under the Gaussian framework and are robust in various aspects.     

Country risk and financial integration—A case study of South Africa

This paper examines the importance of economic factors in a time-varying beta model of country risk before and after the occurrence of financial integration for South Africa's stock market. We examine how fundamental economic factors impact the variation of South Africa's country risk over the period 1993-2008. We find that exchange rates and gold prices are significant economic variables that induce significant volatility in South Africa's beta during the pre-financial integration period through June 1998. Post-financial integration, South Africa's beta rises and fundamental economic factors cease to be significant in determining its variation, a result consistent with an integrated financial market.     

Cross-border trading as a mechanism for implicit capital flight: ADRs and the Argentine crisis

Cross-listed shares may confound government efforts to control capital outflows by providing a legal means through which investors can transfer their wealth outside the country. We study the recent experience of investors who while subject to capital controls, were able to purchase cross-listed shares using local currency, convert them into dollar-denominated shares, re-sell them abroad, and deposit the dollar proceeds in foreign bank accounts. Capital controls drive a wedge between the price of local shares and their corresponding cross-listed shares. This wedge provides an implicit devaluation forecast and the market's valuation of capital control circumvention.     

Corporate valuation around the world: The effects of governance,growth, and openness

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of corporate valuation around the world. Specifically, we (i) document and compare corporate valuation around the world, and (ii) identify the key factors that drive cross-country differences in valuation. In doing so, we utilize the country-level Tobin’s q (CTQ), computed as the ratio of the aggregate market value to book value of all assets held by all public firms domiciled in a country, which amounts to the Tobin’s q for the ‘market portfolio’ of the country. The key findings of the paper are: First, CTQ varies greatly across countries, ranging from 0.73 for Venezuela to 2.11 for Finland, with the international mean of 1.30 during our sample period 1999–2004. Despite the steady integration of the world economy in recent years, corporate valuation remains starkly different across countries. Second, apart from the effect of corporate governance, cross-country differences in corporate valuation are significantly driven by the growth options of countries represented by the R&D intensities, capital expenditures, and GDP growth. In addition, the degree of capital market openness has a significant, independent effect on valuation. Third, our regression analyses show that CTQ varies directly with shareholder rights, enforcement of insider trading laws, GDP growth, R&D intensity, and the degree of capital market openness. The key findings remain robust to the inclusion of inflation and industry effects.     

Lessons from the evolution of foreign exchange trading strategies

The adaptive markets hypothesis posits that trading strategies evolve as traders adapt their behavior to changing circumstances. This paper studies the evolution of trading strategies for a hypothetical trader who chooses portfolios from foreign exchange (forex) technical rules in major and emerging markets, the carry trade, and US equities. The results show that a backtesting procedure to choose optimal portfolios improves upon the performance of nonadaptive rules. We also find that forex trading alone dramatically outperforms the S&P 500, with much larger Sharpe ratios over the whole sample, but there is little gain to coordinating forex and equity strategies, which explains why practitioners consider these tools separately. Forex trading returns dip significantly in the 1990s but recover by the end of the decade and have been markedly superior to an equity position since 1998. Overall, trading rule returns still exist in forex markets—with substantial stability in the types of rules—though they have migrated to emerging markets to a considerable degree.     

Sovereign debt auctions: Uniform or discriminatory?

Many financial assets, especially government bonds, are issued by an auction. An important feature of the design is the auction pricing mechanism: uniform versus discriminatory. Theoretical papers do not provide a definite answer regarding the dominance of one type of auction over the other. We investigate the revealed preferences of the issuers by surveying the sovereign issuers that conduct auctions. We find that the majority of the issuers/countries in our sample use a discriminatory auction mechanism for issuing government debt. We use a multinomial logit procedure and discriminatory analysis to investigate the mechanism choice. It was interesting to find that market-oriented economies and those that practice common law tend to use a uniform method while economies who are less market oriented and practice civil law tend to use discriminatory price auctions.     

A theory of optimal expropriation, mergers and industry competition

We model a competitive industry where managers choose quantities and costs to maximize a combination of firm profits and benefits from expropriation. Expropriation is possible because of corporate governance ‘slack’ permitted by the government. We show that corporate governance slack induces managers to choose levels of output and costs that are higher than would otherwise be optimal. This, in turn, benefits consumers - the equilibrium price is lower - and other stakeholders such as suppliers and employees. Depending on the government’s social welfare objective, less-than-perfect investor protection can be optimal. We show why some mechanisms suggested by the literature as improving investor protection - legal change, cross-listing, domestic mergers - may not be effective. We provide a theoretical argument showing the efficacy of cross-border mergers. The stronger corporate governance of a foreign acquirer, imposed on the domestic target firm, benefits merging shareholders and those of competing unmerged domestic firms.     

IQ,trading behavior,and performance

We analyze whether IQ influences trading behavior, performance, and transaction costs. The analysis combines equity return, trade, and limit order book data with two decades of scores from an intelligence (IQ) test administered to nearly every Finnish male of draft age. Controlling for a variety of factors, we find that high-IQ investors are less subject to the disposition effect, more aggressive about tax-loss trading, and more likely to supply liquidity when stocks experience a one-month high. High-IQ investors also exhibit superior market timing, stock-picking skill, and trade execution.