A re-examination of international inflation convergence over the modern float

Crowder [Crowder, W.J., 1996. The international convergence of inflation rates during fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Journal of International Money and Finance 15, 551–576] provided evidence that inflation rates among the seven largest industrialized economies shared one common stochastic trend in the post-war era, over both the fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. The convergence of inflation rates over the floating exchange rate period implies less insulation for the domestic economy from idiosyncratic shocks in the rest of the world, thereby reducing the attractiveness of flexible exchange rates. Several subsequent studies have found much less convergence than suggested in Crowder's original results, suggesting a higher degree of insulation of flexible exchange rates. In this study, we revisit the question of the degree of inflation convergence among the G-7 nations over the modern float. Employing a host of diagnostic methods, we conclude that there is in fact one common trend underlying the inflation rates of the G-7 nations. Consistent with Crowder [Crowder, W.J., 1996. The international convergence of inflation rates during fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Journal of International Money and Finance 15, 551–576], we cannot attribute the source of the underlying common trend to any one particular country.     

EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchangerates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchangerate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomicpolicies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchangerate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates, floatingnominal rates, and dual or black market nominal exchange rates.This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policiesoften lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures,including nominal devaluations and several alternative approaches,are then evaluated.      

Do fundamentals matter for the D-Mark/Euro–Dollar? A regime switching approach

In this paper, we demonstrate that there is evidence of an unstable and nonlinear relationship between fundamentals and exchange rates. Modeling this time-varying nature of the importance of fundamentals in a Markov switching framework substantially improves the fit of the real interest rate differential model and leads to parameter estimates, which in one regime are in line with theoretical expectations and allow us to draw reasonable conclusions on the influence of fundamentals on exchange rate dynamics. Factors that prove to be closely related to regime switches are short-term interest rate, inflation differentials and differences in economic growth. Therefore, fundamentals do not only matter for the exchange rate within each regime, but are also related to the switches between the regimes.     

International risk sharing and the choice of exchange-rate regime

This paper examines the argument that the fixed exchange-rate regime should be preferred to the flexible rate regime because the former allows risk sharing across countries while the latter does not. The analysis is performed in a two-country overlapping generations model, where markets are incomplete under all exchange regimes. It is shown that risks are pooled across countries when the equilibrium exchange rate is constant across states of nature, which arises under the fixed rate regime with or without capital restriction, and under the flexible rate regime without capital restriction. Risks are not pooled across countries when the equilibrium exchange rate is different across states of nature, which arises under the flexible rate regime with capital restriction. But in a model with incomplete markets, the ability to share risk across countries in the regimes with constant exchange rates does not necessarily lead to higher welfare than the inability to share risk in the regime with random exchange rates.     

Tracking exchange rate management in Latin America

One way to track exchange-rate deviations from its long-run value is to examine numerical patterns in exchange rates to see if those patterns appear to have been subjected to some degree of policy management. We apply Benford's Law to exchange rates in Latin American countries, computing and comparing the distribution of exchange-rate observed values with those of Benford's Law. For most cases we find that the exchange rate for the US dollar does not satisify Benford's Law, however this law holds when the euro is considered. This result may be explained by the fact that these countries are characterized for having different degrees of dollarization and intervention in the US dollar forex market while there is almost no policy intervention in the euro forex market. Our approach is an alternative view of how these characteristics play a role inducing deviations with respect to an implied equilibrium exchange rate.     

Exchange rate contagion in Latin America

A regular vine copula approach is implemented for testing for contagion among the exchange rates of the six largest Latin American countries. Using daily data from June 2005 through April 2012, we find evidence of contagion among the Brazilian, Chilean, Colombian and Mexican exchange rates. However, there are interesting differences in contagion during periods of large exchange rate depreciation and appreciation. Our results have important implications for the response of Latin American countries to currency crises originated abroad.     

The international transmission of interest rate shocks: The Federal Reserve and emerging markets in Latin America and Asia

This paper analyzes the effects of changes in the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Funds rate on emerging countries' interest rates using high frequency (weekly) data. I also investigate how changes in the U.S. term structure affect short term rates' differentials. Other shocks include changes in the U.S. dollar–Euro exchange rate, changes in the international price of oil, risk ratings, and the degree of capital mobility. The results indicate that there is a strong and fairly rapid transmission of changes in the Federal Funds rate into interest rates in the Latin American countries in the sample. This effect is equally large in the Asian nations in the long run. The adjustment path is different across the two regions, however. Adjustment is very fast and cyclical in Latin America; it is gradual and slower in East Asia.     

How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?

This paper investigates the degree and the nature of exchange rate co-movements between the Renminbi and a set of seven East Asian currencies by estimating Markov switching models with regime-dependent correlations and time-varying transition probabilities. These models have several advantages. First, exchange rate co-movements can vary across different depreciation and appreciation regimes. Second, the Renminbi can act as a transition variable that provides information regarding how the exchange rates evolve over time. After controlling for global effects and exchange market pressures, the results yield robust evidence of the Renminbi’s rising role in East Asia as a significant factor in currency fluctuations. A key result is that regional currencies tend to overreact when the Renminbi depreciates and underreact when it appreciates, suggesting that East Asian economies are not willing to allow their currency to substantially appreciate against the Chinese currency.     

Forward and spot exchange rates in a bivariate TAR framework

Structural exchange rate models explain only a small part of the movements in dollar exchange rate. Recent empirical work has focused on the failure to account for nonlinearities in the data generating mechanism, as an explanation of this bad performance. Here two bivariate threshold autoregressive models for the spot and forward exchange rates are considered. In the first model the regimes are determined by the log difference of the two rates; in the second one the regimes are driven by the forward spot no-arbitrage condition. These processes are able to capture the ‘swing’ behaviour observed in the exchange rate market. Finally the forecasting ability of the models for the dollar/DM exchange rate is evaluated by stochastic simulation.     

Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Arrangements: Evidence from the Caribbean

This paper assesses the nature of fiscal discipline under alternative exchange rate regimes. First, it shows that fiscal agencies under a currency union with a fixed exchange rate can have a larger incentive to overspend or "free ride" than those under other exchange rate regimes, owing to the agencies' ability to spread the costs of overspending in inflation tax across both time, given the fixed exchange rate, and space, given the currency union. In contrast, such free-riding behavior does not arise under flexible regimes owing to the immediate inflationary impact of spending. Next, empirically, fiscal stances in countries with fixed pegs and currency union regimes demonstrate greater free-riding behavior than do countries with more flexible regimes in fifteen Caribbean countries from 1983 to 2004.     

Structural breaks in volatility: Evidence for the OECD and non-OECD real exchange rates

This paper attempts to determine whether or not nominal exchange rate regimes affect the volatility of bilateral and effective real exchange rates. To that end, we examine the real exchange rate behaviour for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries during the 1960–2006 period, therefore covering both the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the adoption of generalised floating exchange rates from 1973. We make use of an econometric methodology based on the Hansen's (Hansen, B.E., 1997. Approximate asymptotic P values for structural-change tests. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15 (1), 60–67) approximation to the p-values of the supreme, exponential and average statistics developed by Andrews (Andrews, D., 1993. Test for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica 61 (4), 821–856) and Andrews and Ploberger (Andrews, D., Ploberger, W., 1994. Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Econometrica 62 (6), 1383–1414). This methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p-values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates. Results suggest that there is clear evidence in favour of the non-neutrality of nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility for developed countries, but not in the case of developing or emerging countries.     

Technical trading,monetary policy,and exchange rate regimes

The paper extends and empirically tests the noise trader exchange rate model of Jeanne and Rose (2002). We introduce technical trading in the exchange market as a source of noise and explicitly incorporate monetary and exchange rate policy. With these modifications, it is possible to directly test the model's prediction of an U-shaped relation between exchange trend and volatility. We find strong empirical evidence supporting the implications of the model. As a corollary, we develop a measure of excess exchange rate volatility and categorize exchange rate regimes based on the de facto behavior of the exchange rates.     

Technical trading,monetary policy,and exchange rate regimes

The paper extends and empirically tests the noise trader exchange rate model of Jeanne and Rose (2002). We introduce technical trading in the exchange market as a source of noise and explicitly incorporate monetary and exchange rate policy. With these modifications, it is possible to directly test the model's prediction of an U-shaped relation between exchange trend and volatility. We find strong empirical evidence supporting the implications of the model. As a corollary, we develop a measure of excess exchange rate volatility and categorize exchange rate regimes based on the de facto behavior of the exchange rates.     

Special Exchange Rates for Capital Account Transactions

The governments of developing countries are constrained in theeffective implementation of domestic policy by the interlinkagesof national and international financial markets. Domestic macroeconomicconditions are influenced by the interaction of national andworld interest rates and prices, and through the impact of realexchange rates on employment. The domestic responses to changesin these factors are often strong and rapid. In an attempt tosever these ties, governments have adopted dual exchange ratesystems in which capital account transactions are conductedat a depreciated exchange rate while an otherwise overvaluedrate is maintained for commercial trade. This article suggeststhat dual rates can indeed be used successfully as a strictlytransitory policy to offset sudden shocks in capital markets.The article develops models which indicate why these dual systemsare able to prevent inflationary or recessionary pressures causedby a misaligned exchange rate in the short term. While freecapital account rates can cut the flow of capital flight, however,a dual rate system cannot prevent a possibly equivalent lossof foreign reserves that will ultimately result because of theimpact of the overvaluation of the commercial rate on the tradebalance. In the longer term, a dual rate system with a misalignedcommercial rate exacerbates the government's deficit; ultimately,real wages must be cut and real interest rates raised to generatesufficient foreign exchange to finance the external debt. Thusa dual rate works well if the commercial rate is maintainedclose to the equilibrium level.     

Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach

Theory suggests that regimes of relatively fixed exchange rates encourage inward foreign direct investment (FDI) relative to regimes of more flexible exchange rates. We use propensity score matching (PSM) to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate regimes of 70 developing countries and FDI into such countries using de facto regime classifications. We include a large number of variables in the logit equation that estimates the propensity score, the probability of regime choice. We also use general-to-specific modeling to get alternative, parsimonious versions. Based on four matching procedures, the average treatment effects suggest, with overall modest statistical significance, that relatively fixed de facto regimes do encourage FDI compared with relatively floating regimes. In addition, the estimated effects are sometimes economically large.     

Macroeconomic policies and performance in Latin America

This paper provides new evidence on macroeconomic policies and results in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results are: (i) credibility allows adoption of counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies; (ii) accuracy in meeting inflation targets depends on central bank independence and country risk; (iii) intermediate exchange rate (ER) regimes have become less persistent; (iv) ER regimes matter for inflation and growth; (v) real ER trends are not explained by productivity growth and supply reforms do not resolve real ER misalignments; (vi) financial integration has increased significantly; (vii) foreign shocks are a major growth determinant; and (viii) composition of foreign capital inflows matters for growth.     

Is exchange rate risk priced in microfinance?

High microcredit interest rates have often been a source of criticism against the microfinance movement. Research has focused attention on the cost structure of interest rates and more recently on the macroeconomic and macro-institutional factors. While cost structure is probably the most important determinant of interest rates, other factors can also matter. This paper uses an innovative measure of foreign exchange risk to explore its impact on microcredit interest rates. We show that microfinance institutions that operate in countries with fixed exchange rate regimes tend to charge lower interest rates than those operating in countries with floating exchange rate regimes.     

Comparative statics of a two-country capital/money model

This paper presents a two country version of James Tobin's capital/money model, with international trade and capital transactions. The model is used to derive comparative static properties of financial market equilibrium under four alternative regimes: fixed or flexible exchange rates combined with a pegged foreign government interest rate or a fixed supply of foreign government debt. The comparative static results derived by Tobin for a closed economy, and by William Branson for a small country with an open economy, are preserved in the model developed here only in the case where both the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate are pegged. The reasons for this are explored.     

Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and,if so,how?

We propose an empirical model for deviations from long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) that simultaneously accounts for three key features: (i) adjustment toward PPP may occur via nominal exchange rates and relative prices at different speeds; (ii) different exchange rate regimes may generate regime shifts in the structural dynamics of PPP deviations; (iii) nonlinear reversion toward PPP in response to shocks. This empirical framework encompasses and synthesizes much previous empirical research. Using over a century of data for the G5 countries, we provide evidence that long-run PPP holds, the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and prices in restoring PPP varies over time and across different exchange rate regimes, and reversion to PPP occurs nonlinearly, at a speed that is fairly consistent with the nominal rigidities suggested by conventional open economy models.     

Exchange rate regimes, banking and the non-tradable sector

This paper presents a small-open-economy, two-good version of the Diamond and Dybvig model with cash constraints to analyze the implications on banking of different exchange rate regimes and monetary policies. I show that fixed exchange rates with a Central Bank providing liquidity in local currency imply Pareto efficiency, with conditions for a run equilibrium stronger than in the literature. In a flexible exchange rate regime, multiple equilibria may not be eliminated. In particular, for very a expansive monetary policy there exists an equilibrium where a fraction of patient consumers purchases dollars in the interim period, which constitutes a partial currency run. A dollarized banking system without international short-run credit may also implement the efficient allocation under certain conditions.