共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 22 毫秒
1.
Michael Ofosu Mensah Hong V. Nguyen & Huldah A. Ryan 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》1996,23(9&10):1245-1265
Despite efforts by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to encourage corporate disclosure of quantitative management earnings projections, only a small fraction of firms voluntarily do so. Instead of quantitative estimates, a large number of firms choose to disclose qualitative (verbal) assessments of their earnings prospects. This paper is a study of the information characteristics and the usefulness of this alternative form of forecast disclosure to investors. The study examines a sample of qualitative forecast statements from the 1979–1985 period and finds associations between these forecasts and percentage changes in realized earnings per share, the direction of financial analysts' forecast revisions following the disclosure of these forecasts, and abnormal stock returns on the date of their disclosure. These associations are, however, shown to be more significant for negative (bad news) than for positive (good news) forecasts. 相似文献
2.
William R. Baber Jong-Dae Kim & Krishna R. Kumar 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》1999,26(9-10):1177-1198
We investigate whether earnings forecasts are improved by earlier earnings disclosures by firms in the same industry. We find improvements for time series forecasts, but not for analysts' forecasts. Considering prior earnings announcements reduces correlations between forecast errors and security price reactions to earnings announcements, even when incorporating these announcements improves forecast accuracy. Our explanation for this anomaly, which is supported by additional analysis, is that intra-industry information facilitates predicting transitory, rather than permanent, earnings components. The question of whether information transfers improve earnings forecasts provides the context for the analysis, but the primary contribution is the documentation of intra-industry information transfers in a setting other than capital markets. 相似文献
3.
We investigate two hypotheses regarding the information content of dividend change announcements. The first is that the importance of information signaled by a dividend change depends on the reliability of earnings forecasts existing before the dividend announcement. The second hypothesis is that the stock price reaction to dividend change announcements is related to earnings forecast error as of the time of the dividend announcement. Our results reveal that dividend increases convey more information for firms in which financial analysts least accurately predict earnings. The results also indicate that dividend increase and decrease announcements provide market participants with information which, on average, allows them to differentiate between firms on the basis of future earnings realizations. These differential information effects are shown to be robust to price, size, dividend yield, and overinvestment effects. 相似文献
4.
Abstract: We examine the relation between analysts' earnings forecasts and firms' intangible assets, including technology‐based intangibles, brand names, and recognized intangibles. We predict that high information complexity of intangible assets increases the difficulty for analysts to assimilate information and increases analysts' forecast error of intangibles‐intensive firms. We find a positive association between analysts' forecast error and the firm's intangible intensity that deviates from the industry norm. We also find that analysts' forecast errors are greater for firms with diverse and innovative technologies. In contrast, analysts' forecast errors are smaller for biotech/pharmaceutical and medical equipment firms that are subject to intangibles‐related regulation. 相似文献
5.
When optimistic forecasts can improve access to management, rational analysts have incentives to issue optimistically-biased forecasts (Lim, 2001). This paper proposes that the extent of this optimistic forecast bias will depend on the forecast's importance to management. If management attaches less importance to a forecasted measure, analysts should decrease their forecast bias because the expected benefits of issuing optimistic forecasts are less. We examine analysts' earnings and sales forecasts, and predict that analysts' optimistic bias will be greater for earnings than for sales. Results are consistent with our predictions and contribute to the evidence that analysts' forecast bias is rational and intentional. 相似文献
6.
This study empirically investigates how a firm's earnings uncertainty affects analysts' herding behaviors in earnings forecasts. Trueman (1994) and Graham (1999) analytically predict that analysts have higher incentives to issue a herding forecast when a firm's earnings uncertainty is low. We test this analytical prediction using a proxy for bold forecasts used by Gleason and Lee (2003) and Clement and Tse (2005). We classify analysts' earnings forecasts as bold when an analyst's revised forecast is larger (or smaller) than both the analyst's own prior forecast and the mean consensus forecast of other analysts immediately prior to the analyst's forecast. Earnings uncertainty is measured by standard deviation of time‐serial earnings forecast errors. A logit regression result shows a positive relation between bold forecasts and earnings uncertainty after controlling for analyst characteristics, which is consistent with the prediction by Trueman (1994) and Graham (1999). We also find that as earnings uncertainty increases, the accuracy of analysts' bold forecasts relative to consensus forecast accuracy also increases. These results imply that analysts are active in producing new relevant information about firms when earnings uncertainty is higher. 相似文献
7.
Economic Value Added,Future Accounting Earnings,and Financial Analysts' Earnings Per Share Forecasts 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Machuga Susan M. Pfeiffer Ray J. Verma Kiran 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2002,18(1):59-73
Empirical research to date on the relative effectiveness of Economic Value Added (EVA) and earnings per share (EPS) as measures of firm performance for stock valuation has been mixed. In contrast to prior research, which primarily focuses on the correspondence of these measures with shareholder value and changes therein, we examine their relative effectiveness in predicting future earnings and their role in enhancing the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. Our results indicate that EVA contains information that is incremental to EPS in predicting future earnings. In addition, we find that despite this potential for EVA to add incremental value to analysts' forecasts of future earnings, analysts do not use the information in reported EVA appropriately, but appear rather to overweigh it. 相似文献
8.
Andros Gregoriou Christos Ioannidis Len Skerratt 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2005,32(9-10):1801-1826
Abstract: The generally accepted factors that determine the bid‐ask spread are volatility, trading volume and market value ( Atkins and Dyl, 1997 ; Glosten and Harris, 1988 ; and Menyah and Paudyal, 2000 ). Following Kim and Verrecchia (1994) we include a measure of the disagreement in analysts' earnings forecasts in our model of the bid ask spread. This measure serves as a proxy for the informational disadvantage of market makers with respect to informed traders. Market makers respond to the additional risk by increasing the bid‐ask spread. We find that the disagreement amongst analysts is significant for horizons up to and including six months (and with the hypothesised sign) in explaining FTSE 100 company spreads, rendering strong empirical support for our model. 相似文献
9.
John Capstaff Krishna Paudyal & William Rees 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2001,28(5-6):531-562
This study examines the accuracy and bias of financial analysts' EPS forecasts in nine European countries during 1987 to 1995. There are significant differences between the countries which may be due to the differences in earnings behaviour, accounting practices, and the influence of securities markets. An optimistic bias is endemic in European forecasts, consistent with research from the US. Investors who incorporate earnings forecasts in their stock selection procedures may be able to improve returns by explicitly adjusting their models for observed regularities in earnings forecast errors. However, we have shown that these regularities differ in incidence and magnitude across the countries studied, and further research is needed to effectively model these differences. 相似文献
10.
Empirical estimates of the earnings response coefficient have consistently been lower than theory predicts. This may be because empirical proxies for unexpected earnings contain measurement error. I demonstrate and evaluate the use of a recently developed technique by Fuller that yields consistent parameter estimates in the presence of measurement error. The empirical results indicate that this technique is successful at mitigating measurement error bias in the earnings response coefficient. The earnings response coefficient increases by as much as 52%. In contrast, replication of the techniques performed in previous studies increases the earnings response coefficient by only 8%. 相似文献
11.
This article discusses the effects of non-recurring profits and losses on statement users’ decision-making processes from the perspective of securities analysts. We examine the relationship between analysts’ forecast revisions and firms’ non-recurring earnings. We find that 1) non-recurring gains and losses can influence analysts’ earnings forecast revision; 2) compared with non-recurring items resulting from policy changes, analysts are more concerned about those attributed to changes in business scope; 3) if listed companies use non-recurring items to turn losses into gains during earnings management, it will weaken the effects of non-recurring items on analysts’ earnings forecast revision. The results suggest that non-recurring items that result from changes in business scope incorporate information that users need for the future operation of the business. This article verifies the information relevance of non-recurring items and provides evidence for the necessity of non-recurring item disclosure. 相似文献
12.
We construct a measure of the speed with which forecasts issued by sell-side analysts accurately forecast future annual earnings. Following Marshall, we label this measure earnings information flow timeliness (EIFT). This measure avoids the aggregation problem inherent in price-based measures of information efficiency. We document large variation in EIFT across firm-years, and show that EIFT is positively associated with the extent of analyst following, consistent with increased analyst coverage improving the speed with which earnings-related information is recognised. We also find that EIFT is higher for firm-years classified as ‘bad news’ (i.e., where analysts’ forecasts at the start of the financial period exceed the reported outcome). However, when we separately consider instances where analysts appear to forecast non-GAAP (or ‘street’) earnings rather than GAAP earnings, we find that the greater timeliness of bad news is concentrated among observations where analysts forecast non-GAAP earnings, where unusual items are typically excluded. We conclude that the market for accounting information is more efficient for negative operating outcomes than for negative outcomes reflecting unusual items. 相似文献
13.
Salim Chahine 《International Review of Financial Analysis》2004,13(1):83-103
This empirical study examines whether the optimistic forecasts of analysts explain the long-run abnormal return following initial public offerings (IPOs). Consistent with prior research, this paper concludes that the analysis of earning forecasts for firms going public has an upward bias. While the usually calculated buy-and-hold abnormal return is not significantly negative on average, a proper control for risk confirms the long-run underperformance hypothesis for the 1-year period following IPOs. The risk-adjusted return is positively correlated to the surprise effect and earning forecast revisions, and appears to be the response to new information about the true earnings perspectives. 相似文献
14.
Stephen P. Baginski John M. Hassell Michael D. Kimbrough 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2008,31(3):311-330
The 1990s were characterized by substantial increases in the performance of and investor reliance on financial analysts. Because
managers possess superior private information and issue forecasts to align investors’ expectations with their own, we predict
that managers increased the quality of their earnings forecasts during the 1990s in order to keep pace with the improved forward-looking
information provided by financial analysts, upon which investors increasingly relied. Using a sample of 2,437 management earnings
forecasts, we document an increase in management earnings forecast precision, management earnings forecast accuracy, and managers’
tendency to explain earnings forecasts in 1993–1996 relative to 1983–1986. Given that these forecast characteristics are linked
to greater informativeness and credibility, we also document that the information content of management earnings forecasts,
as measured by the strength of share price responses to forecast news, increased in 1993–1996 relative to 1983–1986. As expected,
the increased information content of management forecasts primarily occurred for firms covered by financial analysts.
相似文献
Michael D. KimbroughEmail: |
15.
Summary This paper uses periods of unusually heavy earnings estimate revision activity by analysts to assess the relative usefulness of corporate information events (CIEs) in firm valuation. Because accounting information is more readily available, newsworthy and accessible, we hypothesize that CIEs that focus on financial statement information trigger greater analyst revision activity over a shorter period of time than CIEs that offer strategic or “soft” information. Our results are consistent with this hypothesis. In Part II, we examine investor response to revision clusters that accompany different CIEs.We thank the Editor, an anonymous referee, Joe Cooper, Todd Doersch, Tony Greig, Kent Konkol and Marc Sievers for helpful suggestions and discussions. We also thank Mehmet Ozbilgin and James Su for programming during the planning phase of this project, and Jinyoung Park for research assistance during its execution. We are very grateful to Thomson Financial, CCBN and Reuters Data for providing data used in this study. Bagnoli and Watts thank the Krannert Graduate School of Management andPurdue University for financial support. 相似文献
16.
Summary In Part I of this study, we evaluated the relative usefulness of information in alternative corporate information events (CIEs) to analysts by examining the frequency with which they trigger clusters of analysts’ earnings estimate revisions. In Part II, we examine investor response to various CIEs and their revision clusters. We find that stock prices react most strongly and adjust most quickly to revision clusters that accompany CIEs that focus on financial statement information. CIEs that offer strategic information take longer for analysts and investors to assimilate, and investors appear to rely heavily on later analyst revisions following such events. 相似文献
17.
Commencing 13 March 2000, the Corporate Law Economic Reform Program Act 1999 (Cth) introduced changes to the regulation of corporate fundraising in Australia. In particular, it effected a reduction in the litigation risk associated with initial public offering prospectus disclosure. We find that the change is associated with a reduction in forecast frequency and an increase in forecast value relevance, but not with forecast error or bias. These results confirm previous findings that changes in litigation risk affect the level but not the quality of disclosure. They also suggest that the reforms' objectives of reducing fundraising costs while improving investor protection, have been achieved. 相似文献
18.
This study explores the reasons for the slow price reactions to analysts’ recommendation revisions. We predict that analysts’ recommendation revisions contain earnings-related information that is not incorporated in analysts’ earnings forecasts and that the slow price reaction is attributable to a gradual incorporation of this earnings-related information into stock prices. We find that, consistent with our prediction, stocks with recommendation upgrades subsequently experience more upward earnings forecast revisions than stocks with recommendation downgrades, and that the differences in subsequent stock returns between upgraded and downgraded stocks is attributable to differences between subsequent earnings forecast (especially, FY2 earnings forecast) revisions. 相似文献
19.
Abhijit Barua Joseph Legoria Jacquelyn Sue Moffitt 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2006,33(5-6):653-670
Abstract: This study examines whether firms with profits before accruals management are more likely than firms with losses before accruals management to meet or exceed earnings benchmarks when pre-managed earnings are below those benchmarks. We extend Brown (2001) by documenting that the differential propensity to achieve earnings benchmarks by profitable and nonprofitable firms results from differential accruals management behavior. We find that firms with profits before accruals management are more likely than firms with losses before accruals management to have pre-managed earnings below both analysts' forecasts and prior period earnings and reported earnings above these benchmarks. 相似文献
20.
Abstract: We investigate whether and if so, how, corporate governance 'quality' 1 is related to the information flows from a company and how the share market and its agents respond. Specifically, we study links between the 'quality' of a firm's corporate governance (CGQ) and the informativeness of its disclosures. We employ six indicators of informativeness. They include document counts, properties of analysts' forecasts and a 'timeliness' metric, in the spirit of Ball and Brown (1968) , that reflects the average speed of price discovery throughout the year. Our results suggest the answer to our question is 'Yes': better‐governed firms do make more informative disclosures. 相似文献