Is inequality an inevitable by-product of skill-biased technical change?

This article examines trends in relative wages between high- and medium-skilled workers and between medium- and low-skilled workers in Finland, Germany, Italy, South Korea and the US over the period 1970–2005. It is found that there are large differences in the evolution wage inequality across the countries in our sample, with some countries showing a long-run upward trend in relative wages (such as the US, Germany and Italy) and others showing a long-run downward trend (such as Finland and Korea). The main conclusion from our results is that inequality is not an inevitable by-product of technological change.     

Does legal system matter for directed technical change? Evidence from the auto industry

Does the effect of fuel taxes on clean innovations (e.g. hybrid technology) depend on the legal system’s rigidity? Using 1986–2005 data from more than 1900 firms, evidence suggests that auto-industry firms located in civil law (with more rigid laws) countries increase clean technology patenting more than common law (with more flexible laws) firms when the tax-inclusive fuel price rises. A rigid legal system appears to raise clean technology innovation.     

How large is the local fiscal multiplier? Evidence from Chinese counties

The paper estimates local fiscal multipliers using annual data for 1800 China counties. The identification exploits a peculiar feature of the allocation mechanism of China's intergovernmental transfers that triggers exogenous variations on local public spending. When aggregate central-local transfers go up at the national level, National Poor Counties can receive a disproportionate amount of transfers. We therefore construct an instrument that captures this heterogeneity in the response of local public spending to national central-local transfers. The analysis points to local fiscal multipliers of approximately 0.6, which is much lower than the estimates in most previous studies. The effects of local public spending are concentrated on non-tradable industries. Finally, we find local public spending has striking effects on stimulating in-county investment, but has negligible effects on stimulating in-county consumption.     

What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries

We investigate how the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on output and employment vary with the state of the business cycle, monetary policy, public debt, the current account, and private credit. By examining the response of a large number of variables, we are also able to shed light on the transmission channels of fiscal policy. Our main finding is that short-term output multipliers are below unity, even in states in which multipliers are expected to be larger (eg when the output gap is negative or monetary policy tight). Key offsetting factors that reduce the size of multipliers and explain differences across states are the extent to which the external sector improves and monetary policy eases.     

Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change

It has been suggested that disasters might have positive economic consequences, through the accelerated replacement of capital. This possibility is referred to as the productivity effect. This effect is investigated using a model with embodied technical change. In this framework, disasters can influence the production level but cannot influence the growth rate, in the same way than the saving ratio in a Solow-like model. Depending on reconstruction quality, indeed, accounting for embodied technical change can either decrease or increase disaster costs, but is never able to turn disasters into positive events. Moreover, a better but slower reconstruction amplifies the short-term consequences of disasters, but pays off over the long-term. Regardless, the productivity effect cannot prevent the existence of a bifurcation when disaster damages exceed the reconstruction capacity, potentially leading to poverty traps.     

Are elections debt brakes? Evidence from French municipalities

We show that voters are fiscal conservatives, although in the long run only: while the average (over the mandate) level of debt has a negative impact on the probability of reelection, pre-election debt accumulation by incumbents increases their probability of reelection. As the negative impact becomes larger as the debt level becomes higher, it compensates for the short run effect. Elections thus appear as a disciplining device, even if a weak one.     

Does trade credit redistribution thwart monetary policy? Evidence from Italy

Italy is an ideal candidate for testing the credit view of the transmission mechanism because of a bank-centred financial structure, a sizeable trade debt, and an economy titled towards small firms. An empirical analysis of trade credit and debt on averaged panel data shows that small firms act as financially constrained and cycle-sensitive, whereas large ones aim at smoothing sales, adopt an integrated management of inventories and receivables and have a higher trade debt to purchases elasticity. On balance, the net trade credit channel does not, as implied by the credit view, shield small firms from a monetary squeeze.     

Can biased polls distort electoral results? Evidence from the lab

We introduce a new methodological approach for studying the effect of biased polls on election outcomes and apply it to a set of new experiments with 375 participants. Voters may observe and learn about the bias by playing multiple voting rounds. While in control conditions, polls are unbiased, in treatment conditions, participants view only poll results where a particular candidate’s vote share is the largest. This candidate is consistently elected more often in the treatments than in the controls, because biased polls robustly distort voters’ expectations about vote shares. This effect holds after eighteen election rounds, out of which the first three are practice rounds, but somewhat more weakly in our main treatment where voters are explicitly informed about the bias.     

Do China's people favour redistribution? Evidence from an incentivized experiment

From 1949, China's leaders brought their country through three decades of income and wealth compression, which was followed by more than three decades of sharply rising inequality. What preferences do China's people hold regarding what price (if any) is worth paying for greater equality? We conduct a laboratory decision‐making experiment mimicking aspects of a macro‐political–economic environment, using Chinese undergraduate student subjects. We find that our subjects have qualitatively similar tastes for equality as their counterparts in parallel US and European experiments; for example, most are willing to sacrifice some payment for more equality of earnings among other participants, and their willingness to do this is stronger when inequalities originate randomly versus based on performance. Considering the cases permitting direct comparison between Chinese and US subjects’ choices, redistributive choices tend to be a bit higher in China if the participant pays no direct cost and a bit lower if he or she pays such a cost, but the two distributions of decisions differ significantly in under 14% of conditions. Survey data too suggests preferences for a more equal income distribution in China than in other East Asian countries, suggesting a possible impact of the Chinese Communist Party dominance in education and media.     

Do fiscal transfers alleviate business tax competition? Evidence from Germany

According to theory, capacity equalization grants cause local governments to internalize the effects of their tax policies on revenues of neighboring jurisdictions and so raise equilibrium tax rates. This paper empirically analyzes the incentive effects of equalizing transfers on business tax policy by exploiting a natural experiment in the state of Lower Saxony which changed its equalization formula as of 1999. We resort to within-state and across-state difference-in-difference estimates to identify the reform effect on municipalities' business tax rates. Confirming the theoretical prediction, the reform had a significant impact on the municipalities' tax policy in the 4 years after the reform with the effect stabilizing in the fourth to fifth years. The finding is robust to various alternative specifications.     

A fresh look at fiscal multipliers: one size fits it all? Evidence from the Mediterranean area

Following the adoption of important fiscal stimuli to fight the recent crisis, a large literature estimated fiscal multipliers. Focusing on an area particularly appealing, given its diversity and the diversity of the response of countries that compose it to the current crisis, namely the Mediterranean area, we unveil major disparities regarding the significance, sign and size of fiscal multipliers depending mainly on the economic characteristics, the type of multiplier, the time span and the type of fiscal stimulus. Evidence of such important heterogeneities highlights the need for better cooperation among countries, particularly regarding the design of fiscal policy. Failing to do so might divert public resources to ineffective fiscal policies in some countries, or, on the contrary, deprive other countries of potentially high benefits of appropriate fiscal policies, including a reliable tool for exiting the current crisis.     

Can entrepreneurship bring happiness? Evidence from China

This paper investigates the relationship between entrepreneurial activities and the happiness of entrepreneurs. We estimate the effects of entrepreneurial decision-making, business experience and other factors on happiness by using China Household Finance Survey data. Our results derived from maximum likelihood estimation methods indicate that entrepreneurial decision-making and entrepreneurial experience affect household happiness significantly. The family well-being is significantly increased if the family is entrepreneurial, and it will be higher if actively entrepreneurial. Both entrepreneurial experience and entrepreneurial investment of time have significantly positive effect on the probability of family well-being. In addition, we find that the mechanism by which entrepreneurship brings happiness to households is through raising household income and wealth, that is, income effects and wealth effects.     

Can Labor Emigration Affect the Education of Girls? Evidence from Tajikistan

This study examines how large-scale, predominantly male emigration affects the education of girls staying in Tajikistan, the poorest post-Soviet state and one of the most remittance-dependent economies in the world. Using data from a three-wave household panel survey conducted in 2007, 2009, and 2011, this study finds that the net effect of migration on girls’ schooling turns from positive to negative with girls’ age. These results lend support to various conceptual channels through which the emigration of household members may affect girls’ education, including the relaxation of budget constraints, a change of the household head, and an increase in household work. At the practical level, the results imply that migration can be detrimental to women’s empowerment and cast doubt on whether emigration is an appropriate long-term development strategy for Tajikistan.     

Does accrual accounting alter fiscal policy decisions? - Evidence from Germany

Many governments have replaced traditional cash-based accounting with some form of accrual-based accounting system. However, empirical evidence on the effects of the public accounting system on fiscal policy is scarce. Following rules by the federal states, municipalities in Germany have adopted accrual-based accounting systems gradually. By exploiting variations over time and across states I find no evidence for an impact on the overall financial balance. However, my findings suggest that accrual accounting has altered the structure of the budget. Revenues from the sales of non-financial assets have decreased significantly. This supports the hypothesis that municipalities had used these one-off measures before to meet fiscal constraints. Using data on entities controlled by the municipalities, the analysis provides no evidence for repercussions on these public funds, institutions or enterprises.     

Can bribery buy health? Evidence from post-communist countries

Corruption is pervasive, but we know little about its effects on individual lives. Using individual-level data from 28 post-communist countries, we demonstrate that bribing for public services worsens self-assessed health. We account for endogeneity of bribery and show that bribing for any type of public service, not just for health services, has an adverse impact. We also find that bribery lowers the quality of services received. Moreover, there are potentially high indirect costs of bribery since, as we show, it comes at the expense of cutting food consumption. These findings suggest that corruption is a potentially important source behind the poor health outcomes in many developing countries.     

Can technical oscillators outperform the buy and hold strategy?

This study compares returns from the traditional buy and hold (B&H) strategy to well-known technical oscillators applied to diverse indices leading the global market (DJI, FTSE, NK225 and TA100) during the period 2007–2012. Our aim was to establish whether technical tools can consistently achieve returns exceeding those of the B&H strategy across various financial markets. We found the relative strength index (RSI) to be the best oscillator, outperforming the DJIA, the FTSE100 and the NK225 for five of the six years examined. The only index that did better than the RSI was TA100, which outperformed all the examined oscillators. In second place was the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) oscillator, which outperformed the NK225 B&H strategy and came in second for TA100. The results show that during bear markets the RSI and MACD generally produce better gains than the indices, while the opposite occurs during bull markets.     

Does fiscal decentralization affect local governments' strategic behaviours? Evidence from South Korea

Local governments tend to show strategic behaviours when making their spending decisions. However, few studies have examined strategic behaviours when promoting fiscal decentralization. Thus, this study empirically examines the presence of strategic interactions in expenditure decisions in South Korea as well as how fiscal decentralization affects those interactions, using a panel data set from 2010 to 2017. The results demonstrate that a local government mimics other governments' spending when those governments' residents share similar age demographics. Moreover, local governments in South Korea engage in strategic interactions as their expenditure side becomes more decentralized. However, local governments tend to demonstrate less isomorphic behaviour in welfare spending decisions when they have higher revenue decentralization. This is because local governments have no motive to emulate other welfare policies, as the central government delegates the provision of social services to local governments by providing grants with strings attached.     

Do fiscal responsibility laws matter? Evidence from emerging market economies suggests not

Optimal Currency Area theory stresses the importance of the co-movement of business cycles among Eurozone member states for a successful common currency. In this paper, we show how to decompose economic cycles in a time-frequency framework in order to compare the coherences and phase shifts for Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Germany and France. We find that there has been some convergence on the Eurozone economy at short cycle lengths, but little convergence in long cycles. We argue that this shows evidence of divergence in the Eurozone into two groups: a German cluster and the periphery economies.     

Does global value chains participation really promote skill-biased technological change? Theory and evidence from China

The positive effect of global value chains (GVCs) integration on skill-biased technological change (SBTC) in developed countries has been proved extensively, yet little is known about that effect in developing countries, almost all of which are integrated into the low end of GVCs dominated by developed countries (universally located in the middle or at the high end of GVCs). Thus, research on the case of China, the world's largest developing country, can provide a novel insight into the general effect. In this study, we first develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with GVCs low-end integration and SBTC, through which we find that the mechanism whereby GVCs low-end integration works against SBTC in developing countries lies in too much skilled labour being absorbed by low-skill industries due to low-skill-biased technology diffusion, which causes insufficient skilled labour for high-skill industries. After that, the model is estimated using China's provincial panel data over the period from 1997 to 2015, and the empirical results show the negative impact of GVCs low-end integration on SBTC. The findings indicate that the GVCs position should not be overlooked in analysing the impact of GVCs integration on SBTC and that an improvement of the GVCs position is crucial for SBTC in developing countries.     

Was there a Marxian bias in Austrian manufacturing? Evidence on the direction of technical change, 1978–1994

This paper presents a study of the bias of technical change for 20 industries of the Austrian manufacturing sector for the period 1978 to 1994 using empirical methods derived from both classical and neoclassical economics. Overall, the results suggest that the technical bias in Austrian manufacturing did not follow a Marxian pattern. Estimates based on the classical framework suggest that 5 out of the 20 industries show a Marxian bias over the period 1978–1994. Evidence based on a neoclassical CES production function is provided and critically evaluated.