Paths of efficient self-enforcing trade agreements

This paper characterizes the efficient payoff frontier in a three country model where countries face one time adjustment costs of forming trade agreements, and compares it with the constrained efficient frontier when agreements must be self-enforcing. The presence of self-enforcement constraints puts a limit on the magnitude of transfers that can be made between countries, and makes it more likely that bilateral agreements are observed on the constrained efficient frontier. The existence of adjustment costs leads to the possibility that payoffs under a two step agreement, in which an initial bilateral agreement is expanded to include the third country, may Pareto dominate the payoffs from immediate formation of an agreement among all three countries. However, the condition that a two step agreement be efficient in the absence of self-enforcing constraints is neither necessary nor sufficient for the gradual approach to have a lower minimum discount factor. This paper was prepared for the conference “New Directions in International Trade Theory” held at the University of Nottingham. I thank Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Rod Falvey, conference participants, and anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models

The study of asymmetric behavior of macroeconomic variables over business cycles has had a long tradition in economics. In this present work, we find evidence in favor of the hypothesis of having a STAR-type nonlinear asymmetric behavior of the economic activity, over the last two decades, in three Latin American countries: Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. For Chile and Venezuela, the null hypothesis of a linear process could not be rejected under the method established by Granger and Teräsvirta [Granger, C.W.J., Teräsvirta, T., 1993. Modelling Nonlinear Relationships. Oxford University Press, New York]. Economic activity is proxied by monthly based industrial production indexes. Evidence of asymmetric behavior is also found according to the generalized impulse response functions analysis for the three countries.     

An international comparison of the determinants of retail gross margins

In this paper we compare the results of applying a new economic framework for the analysis of retail gross margins to 1982 interindustry retail data for France, Germany, and the U.S. Use of the same theoretical framework and econometric methodology separately for each of the three bodies of data yields robust empirical regularities with respect to functional form and the role of distribution services in explaining retail gross margins. An interesting feature of these results is that they arise despite substantial differences in classification and in the retail environment of the three countries.We thank E. Hoffnar and P. MacNeill for excellent research assistance. We acknowledge the financial support of INSEAD's R&D department for project R2135. We also thank the CSC at Maryland for support. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the MIT Northeast Marketing Colloquium, the Simon Graduate School of Management at the University of Rochester, the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago, the Yale School of Organization and Management, the School of Business Administration at the University of Washington, and the Bureau of Economics of the Federal Trade Commission. We thank the participants in these seminars for their constructive criticisms. We are especially indebted to Peter Rossi of the University of Chicago, who provided us with helpful written comments, and to Herr Krockow of the Statistisches Bundesamt Wiesbaden, who provided us with unpublished data.     

Natural disasters and university enrolment: evidence from L’Aquila earthquake

Although there are several studies looking at the effect of natural disasters on economic growth, less attention has been dedicated to their impact on educational outcomes, especially in more developed countries. We use the synthetic control method to examine how the L’Aquila earthquake affected subsequent enrolment at the local university. This issue has wide economic implications as the University of L’Aquila made a large contribution to the local economy before the earthquake. Our results indicate that the earthquake had no statistically significant effect on first-year enrolment at the University of L’Aquila in the three academic years after the disaster. This natural disaster, however, caused a compositional change in the first-year student population, with a substantial increase in the number of students aged 21 or above. This is likely to have been driven by post-disaster measures adopted in order to mitigate the expected negative effects on enrolment triggered by the earthquake.     

On exchange rates and efficiency

Summary This paper analyzes an exchange economy in which several assets serve as stores of value and where agents have completely heterogeneous preferences and endowments. It describes the set of perfect foresight equilibria in which all assets have positive prices. There are international policies with determinate exchange rates if the world economy satisfies a strong efficiency criterion. Also, the corresponding equilibrium allocations are in the core of the world economy for certain international policies. Hence, a system of fixed exchange rates can support efficient allocations to the extent that countries agree on a division of seigniorage in the creation of international reserves.I would like to thank an annonymous referee, Suchan Chae, Mike Woodford, Ken Kasa, Helen Popper, Kathryn Marshall, and seminar participants at the University of Kansas, the Federal Reserve board, the 1990 meetings of the Western Economic Association, the University of Western Ontario, the University of Chicago, the University of Pennsylvania, Purdue University, and Victoria University of Wellington for comments on earlier drafts.     

Technological similarity in national styles of innovation in a historical perspective

The paper examines some issues related to different styles of innovation in some advenced countries. The statistical work carried out is an attempt to answer the questerion: to what extent do countries' styles of innovation differ and how often do similarities arise? The issue of similarity/dissimilarity of countries' styles of innovation is investigated in the last 100 years for a group of selected countries. The evidence provided is based on a US patent database held at the University of Reading and countries' styles of innovation are measured with the use of the RTA index in four historical periods. The conclusions of the paper are consistent with the theory of national systems of innovation. Countries show very different styles of innovation and, what is more important, this difference is stable over time. However, a selected combination of similar countries occurs in every period, thus underlining the existence of regional groups. These regional groups are the only pairs of countries showing technological similarity historically.     

The shadow economy in three Mediterranean countries: France,Spain and Greece. A MIMIC approach

This paper offers estimations of the evolution of the shadow economy in three Mediterranean countries, namely France, Spain and Greece. A multiple indicators and multiple causes model based on the latent variable structural theory has been applied. As established by Giles (Working paper on monitoring the health of the tax system, 1995), filtered data to solve the non-stationary problems are used. The model includes the tax burden (both as a whole and disaggregated into direct taxes, indirect taxes and social security contributions), a proxy of regulation burden, theu nemployment rate and self-employment as causes of the shadow economy and the GDP growth rate, the labour force participation ratio and the currency ratio as indicators of the underground economy. The results confirm that unemployment, the fiscal burden and self-employment are the main causes of the shadow economy in these countries, and confirm that an inverse relationship exists between the official GDP growth rate and that of the unofficial economy. This paper has benefited from the comments and suggestions of the anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies. The paper was partly written when third author was visiting Real Colegio Complutense at Harvard University. The hospitality of this Institution is gratefully acknowledged.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Contract Enforcement

A long-standing deterrent to foreign direct investment in developing countries is weak enforcement of binding contracts. A local firm may learn business skills from a cooperating multinational firm and subsequently do business on its own based on the acquired skills. In a two-period, double-moral-hazard model, non-binding contracts are shown to be preferred by all parties, implying that contract enforcement is unnecessary. Our results shed light on the puzzling phenomenon that substantial FDI has been carried out under contractual arrangements in developing countries in which contract enforcement is problematic. They can also explain some interesting stylized facts on contractual joint ventures between multinationals and local firms in the early stage of an economic transition.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1998, 26(4), pp. 761–782. School of Business, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong.     

A Sectoral Approach Balancing Global Efficiency and Equity

This paper explores the idea that a properly designed sectoral approach could be the answer to two sets of constraints that hinder international agreements on climate change, namely a genuine concern from developing countries for economic growth and competitiveness issues from industrialized countries. Our sectoral approach builds on three premises: (i) cap-and-trade systems are established in industrialized countries and intensity targets in developing countries, (ii) sectors subject to international trade abide by the rules of the countries in which they trade and (iii) a fraction of the revenues from permits in industrialized countries go towards carbon mitigation in developing countries. We design an economic model that features interactions in three carbon-intensive sectors (two of which are internationally traded) and two countries (an industrialized country and a developing country). Two scenarios are constructed: an Enhanced Sectoral Approach, which refers to our proposal, and a Global Cap, which implements a uniform CO₂ price. We compare the two scenarios in terms of total welfare and equity. It is shown that, for a minor global welfare loss, the Enhanced Sectoral Approach ranks high in terms of equity for emerging countries. This approach also eliminates competitiveness and leakage issues.     

Regionalism and Multilateral Trade Liberalization with Asymmetric Countries

The paper examines the impact of regionalism on the process of multilateral trade liberalization when countries are asymmetric. The author uses a three‐country, three‐good, competing exporters model, with countries being symmetric in everything but their discount factors. The equilibrium regional agreement is found to be a customs union between a patient and an impatient country and that the impact of regionalism depends on the discount factors. The impact of regionalism on multilateral trade liberalization depends critically on which countries engage in regionalism.     

Does Africa grow slower than Asia,Latin America and the Middle East? Evidence from a new data-based classification method

We address the question whether sub-Saharan African countries have lower average growth rates in real GDP per capita than countries in Asia, Latin and Middle America and the Middle East. In contrast to previous studies, countries are no a priori assigned to clusters based on geographical location. Instead, we propose a latent-class panel time series model, which allows a data-based classification of countries into clusters such that within a cluster countries have the same average growth rate. Our empirical results suggest that three clusters are sufficient to describe the different growth paths. Twenty-six African countries belong to the low growth cluster, but 8 African countries show growth rates comparable with many countries in Asia, Latin and Middle America and the Middle East.     

Diversity in innovation and productivity in Europe

The diversity in innovation patterns across manufacturing and service industries and in their outcomes in terms of hourly labor productivity are investigated in this article considering six European countries. The Schumpeterian insights into the variety of innovation are developed in this work by identifying different innovation–performance relationships for industries and countries, relying either on the dominant role of product innovation, or on the diffusion of process improvements. Moreover, the “push” effect of innovation is combined with the “pull” effect of demand, by considering the impact of the dynamics of consumption and investment at the sectoral level. The results point out a “North-South” divide across EU countries, with the three countries of Northern Europe closely associated to the model of productivity growth based on product innovation, and the three Southern countries, mainly relying on the mechanisms by which process innovation is at the root of productivity improvements.     

美国加州公立高等教育的办学特色及其启示

美国是世界上最发达的高等教育国家之一,而加州又是美国公立高等教育最发达的一个州,其教育质量和效率举世公认,是美国高等教育的缩影。文章作者通过对美国加州公立大学的走访和考察,了解了美国加州公立高等教育的基本情况,总结了其办学特色,并提出了铜陵学院在进行省级示范应用型高校建设中的借鉴经验。     

A tale of two gravities*

The flows of traded goods across countries are known to follow a gravity pattern: Their volumes are greater between countries that are larger in size and closer to each other. We find a similar pattern in the flows of territories across countries between 1870 and 2008. During this period, countries experienced inflows and outflows of territories, mirroring the international flows of goods. We find three other pieces of critical evidence supporting that the two flows interact through similar economic motives. Our findings illustrate the usefulness of international trade models for understanding international politics.     

Cross-country alcohol consumption comparison: an application of the Rotterdam demand system

This paper analyses the consumption patterns of the three beverages beer, wine and spirits in nine countries, Australia, Canada, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US, using the Rotterdam demand system. A cross-country comparison of the results shows that in most countries (i)wine consumption has grown at a fasteer rate than beer and spirits; (ii) the proportion of consumers' expenditure on alcohol is declining; (iii)beer is a necessity and spirits is a luxury; (iv)the demand for the three beverages is price inelastic; and (iv)all three beverages are pair-wise substitutes. We also investigated the hypothesis of identical parameters for all countries by pooling the data across countries and found that the data do not support the hypothesis.     

Cointegration and Causal Relationship between Taxes and Spending for Kenya,Nigeria and South Africa

Causal relationships between taxes and spending are examined for three African countries using the GDP as a control variable, and dummy variables to address structural changes in Nigeria and South Africa. There is one cointegration equation between nominal fiscal variables in all three countries, one cointegration equation for Kenya and two cointegration equations for Nigeria and South Africa for the real fiscal variables and their respective dummy variables. Short-term results of the nominal variables show fiscal independence for all three countries. In real terms, taxes cause spending for Kenya and Nigeria and a weak fiscal synchronization for South Africa. There is long run fiscal synchronization in nominal terms for all three countries, and in real terms for both Nigeria and South Africa, while real taxes cause spending in Kenya. Long-run estimates show a unit increase in nominal (real) taxes translating into a less than proportionate increase in nominal (real) spending for Kenya and South Africa, and a more than proportionate increase in nominal (real) spending for Nigeria. Fiscal imbalance is not a threat in the budgetary process in Kenya and South Africa, but an issue of concern in Nigeria, where oil revenues are a major source of support for budget short falls.     

Consumption patterns of food,tobacco and beverages: a cross-country analysis

This study considers the consumption patterns of food, tobacco, soft drinks, and alcohol in 43 developed and developing countries. Such an analysis is important for policy issues associated with tobacco, alcohol, and soft drinks. The results show that consumers in the developing countries spend a much higher proportion of their income on food than consumers in developed countries. The proportion of expenditure allocated to the other three commodities, tobacco, alcohol, and soft drinks, are similar in the two groups of countries. On average, people around the world allocate about one quarter of their income on food, 2.6% on tobacco, 3.2% on alcohol and 1.2% on soft drinks. The income elasticity estimates reveal that food is a necessity in most countries, while tobacco and alcohol are necessities in most of the developed countries and luxuries in a majority of developing countries. Soft drinks are a luxury in a majority of the developing as well as the developed countries. The own-price elasticities show that demand for all four commodities is price inelastic in all countries.     

Distance and trade: Disentangling unfamiliarity effects and transport cost effects

This paper provides evidence supporting Grossman's (Comments on Alan V. Deardorff, Determinants of bilateral trade: Does gravity work in a neoclassical world?. In: Jeffrey A. Frankel (Ed.), The regionalization of the world economy. Chicago: University of Chicago for NBER; 1996) claim that not only transport costs but also unfamiliarity can explain the negative correlation between geographic distances and bilateral trade volumes. A gravity model that controls for as many natural causes of trade as possible reveals that countries high in uncertainty-aversion (based on Hofstede's survey) export disproportionately less to distant countries (with which they are presumably less familiar). More important, this result is mainly driven by differentiated products, not by products with international organized exchanges or with reference prices. For transport costs alone to explain such a trade pattern, one would have to assume that distance-related ad valorem transport costs are higher when a trade route originates from a high uncertainty-aversion country, which is unlikely. This trade pattern is easy to explain, however, if one accepts that geographic distance is a proxy for unfamiliarity and that exporters in high uncertainty-aversion countries are more sensitive to informational ambiguity. A further result is that high uncertainty-aversion countries trade less and thus grow poorer in the long run, which suggests that cultural factors are as important as geographic ones in determining trade openness and prosperity.     

No escape from the dominant theories: The analysis of intellectual pillars of technology management in developing countries

This paper aims to identify the intellectual bases of the technology management (TM) literature generated in developing countries using citation and co-citation analyses and answer the question of whether the intellectual bases of the TM literature created by authors in developing countries diverge from those of the global TM literature. Based on a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of ten technology-innovation management (TIM) specialty journals through the period of 1998-2007, this study produces three important findings. First, the TM literature generated in developing countries is dominated by the knowledge and theories created in developed countries. Second, among these knowledge sources some authors from developing countries and focusing on the specialties of developing countries, such as Kim and Lall, come into prominence; however these authors are not even mentioned in the previous bibliometric studies covering overall TM research. Finally the researchers in developing countries tackle with the issues or topics specific to their own context through combining three major bulks of literature. These are (i) resource-based view (RBV)/core competencies and organizational learning related research; (ii) literature dealing with the evolutionary theorizing on economic change and growth and (iii) literature related to technological capabilities, technology transfer and industrialization in developing countries.     

Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth

In this paper economic growth is interpreted as a sequence of transitions between distinct growth regimes that countries visit with different frequencies. Countries featuring similar growth dynamics are endogenously grouped into three different clusters. The first cluster comprises successful countries that are characterized by lengthy periods of high or very high growth. Moderately successful countries in the second cluster experience both periods of reasonable growth and periods of stagnation, whereas failing countries in the third cluster suffer from highly volatile growth rates with frequent episodes of crisis. Successful countries are characterized by better initial conditions, policies and institutions compared to the other countries. Neither initial conditions nor institutions distinguish moderately successful from failing countries; what makes them different is policy in the form of investments into infrastructure and human capital, trade liberalization and limited policy volatility.