“走出去”与“引进来”——“一带一路”倡议与外商直接投资的区位调整

“一带一路”倡议从其经济学本质来看,是构建“走出去”和“引进来”良性互动新发展格局的重要“先手棋”,它在重塑世界经济格局的同时,也可能改变国内的经济版图。文章基于2003-2018年281个地级市数据的实证分析表明,“一带一路”倡议在传递“走出去”信号的同时,却对全国城市层面的“引进来”产生了一定的消极影响。从影响机制来看,“一带一路”倡议的实施,让节点城市外向型发展的注意力部分地转移到海外投资上,表现为普遍增加了本地用于“走出去”的贷款水平,并在一定程度上减少了地方政府在城市内部的固定资产投资,这使得节点城市对外商直接投资的吸引力出现一定程度的下降。但从影响的异质性来看,这却在客观上促进了我国外商直接投资区位的空间调整,使得东部地区对外商直接投资的吸引力下降,却让中西部城市成了吸引外商直接投资的新阵地。这意味着,今后可充分发挥“一带一路”倡议促进我国外商投资布局调整的积极一面,同时将它与东、中、西部城市发展阶段结合起来,实现“走出去”与“引进来”良性互动。     

撒哈拉以南非洲的国家建设和民主化：谁先谁后，还是同步前进？

在撒哈拉以南的非洲各国中,新民主制度的确立要依赖于先建设国家能力。本文通过使用民主、治理以及大众观念调查等实证数据,指出国家能力建设中哪些方面最为重要。本文的研究发现,国家基础设施的多少和社会福利的提供对民主化影响很小。但是,法治的建立(体现在个人安全感的提高和公民普遍相信政府领导尊重宪法)对民主化很关键。不过,因为政府的合法性本身也要在民主化过程中形成,所以,目前学术界将非洲各国家能力建设和民主政治分开进行的研究应当联系起来。     

Skills,sunspots and cycles

This paper explores the ability of a class of one-sector, multi-input models to generate indeterminate equilibrium paths, and endogenous fluctuations, without relying on factors’ hoarding. The model presents a novel theoretical economic mechanism that supports sunspot-driven expansions without requiring upward sloping labor demand schedules. Its distinctive characteristic is that the skill composition of aggregate labor demand drives expansionary i.i.d. demand shocks. Next, the model explains the labor market dynamics from the supply side, while endogenizing the capital productivity response to changes in the aggregate labor demand composition. Last but not least, it is worth to mention that the model presents an effective shock propagation mechanism that operates into the labor market and across labor market segments through the cross elasticities of equilibrium labor demand and supplies.      

Skills, agglomeration and segmentation

This paper studies the role of skill heterogeneity in “new economic geography” models of location. In our setting, products are both horizontally and vertically differentiated, and producing higher quality goods requires workers with higher skills. Selling to customers based in a different location entails iceberg-type transport costs and additional “communication costs” consisting of a fixed quality loss. We show that the presence of pecuniary externalities creates a mechanism which always promotes spatial sorting of workers according to their skill levels. In particular, in all stable equilibria, workers with higher skill choose to stay in the location where aggregate skill and income is higher, while the less skilled stay in the other.     

Schools and Location: Tiebout,Alonso, and Governmental Finance Policy

Many discussions of school finance policy fail to consider how households respond to policies that change the attractiveness of different residential locations. We develop a general equilibrium model that incorporates workplace choice, residential choice, and political choice of tax and expenditure levels. Importantly, we consider multiple workplaces, a fundamental feature of today's metropolitan landscape. This basic model permits investigating how accessibility and public goods interact in a metropolitan area. The model is used to analyze two conventional policy initiatives: school district consolidation and district power equalization. The surprising conclusion is that school quality and welfare can fall for all families when these restrictions on choice are introduced.     

国有股上市：为了流通而不是完全退出—兼论我们需要什么样的“盈富基金”

占沪深两地股市总量近三分之二的国有股与国有法人股不得上市,是我国股市目前存在的最突出问题之一。首先,这种状况不符合公司法关于公司普通股可流通的一般规定,违背了同股同权的原则,本身就构成股市运作不规范的重要表现;其次,国有股与国有法人股的不能上市使大多数上市公司股权结构不合理的现状无法改变,政企分开的改革目标不能实现;最后,在国有股长期不能上市情况下,它的潜在市场价值与流通股市价之间的差异有扩大趋势,这对股市健康发展构成了日益严重的威胁。未能上市流通的国有股与国有法人股年复一年积累起来的巨大数量,已经成为悬在我国股市头上的达摩斯剑,如果不能适当处理,随时可能对股民心理与股市行情造成发性灾难性后果。解决国有股上市问题已经成为当务之急。     

携手共进同铸华章

“微雨夜来歇,江南春色回。”在这一元伊始,百业图新时节,《江南论坛》踏着时代的节拍,奏响了长三角地区16个城市联办的序曲,成为长三角地区各城市共同的理论园地。值此新年到来之际,本刊谨向长期以来关心支持《江南论坛》工作的各级领导、专家学者和广大读者表示衷心的感谢和崇高的敬意!     

“物价闯关”带给利率市场化的启示：原则、基础与方法

利率市场化是中国金融改革攻坚克难的重要领地,也是政界学界热切关注的焦点所在。目前,从国外实践案例汲取改革经验的文献不可胜数,但从国内历史角度寻求改革规律的研究较少。拟从后一思路出发,梳理中国20世纪八九十年代经历的商品价格市场化改革,并将之与正在进行的利率市场化比较研究。归纳总结了以渐进式改革为原则,以培育市场化的经济主体为基础,以契合政治经济形势、惩治腐败、加强试点、敢于反复为方法的改革经验,为利率市场化的后续推进和经济体制改革的持续深化建言献策。     

Population, consumption and resources: ethical issues.

This article offers several models that test concepts of optimum population and consumption: classical or utilitarian models, contractual models, and generation-relative ethical models. This article is based on a lecture presented in August 1995, at a conference organized by the Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study in the Social Sciences. It is posited that classical utilitarianism casts the optimum population and consumption problem as a Genesis Problem. The authors argue that the Genesis problem is the wrong problem to study because there are no actual people. The Genesis problem asks how many people there ought to be ideally at what living standards. The unborn are not a class of people, just as mud on a river bank is not a mud hut. Actual persons and potential persons are categorically different. Actual persons have a claim that potential persons do not have. An overall ethical ordering over alternatives can only be conceived for each generation of actual people. The ethical point of view inevitably changes over time. For example, a generation in the first period consumes what they are given to consume by the older generation. In the second period, the younger generation is now the older generation who decide how many children to have and how to share nonstorable, all purpose consumption goods among themselves and future generations. Procreation is a means of making one's values durable. Human development is unfair. Those who live later benefit from the labor of their predecessors without paying the same price. Procreation and ecological preservation are a matter of ethics.     

Population,food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory

This paper provides a unified growth theory, i.e. a model that explains the very long-run economic and demographic development path of industrialized economies, stretching from the pre-industrial era to the present-day and beyond. Making strict use of Malthus’ (An essay on the principle of population. London, printed for J. Johnson, 1798) so-called preventive check hypothesis—that fertility rates vary inversely with the price of food—the current study offers a new and straightforward explanation for the demographic transition and the break with the Malthusian era. Employing a two-sector framework with agriculture and industry, we demonstrate how fertility responds differently to productivity and income growth, depending on whether it emerges in agriculture or industry. Agricultural productivity and income growth makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively less expensive. Industrial productivity and income growth, on the other hand, makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively more expensive. The present framework lends support to existing unified growth theories and is well in tune with historical evidence about structural transformation.      

The Return to Caring Skills: Gender,Class, and Occupational Wages in the US

Feminist economics has contributed to the understanding of the economic importance of care work. Most studies find a wage penalty associated with caring occupations. This study extends the feminist research on care work beyond caring occupations by identifying specific caring skills and activities derived from the 2014 O*NET job-evaluation data. Four caring skills – (1) Assisting and Caring for Others, (2) Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships, (3) Service Orientation, and (4) Social Perceptiveness – were used in ordinary least-squares and quantile wage regressions for 623 occupations in the United States. Findings indicate that the return to caring and assisting skills results in a wage penalty for low-wage workers but a wage premium for workers in high-wage and male occupations. By identifying the impact of gender and class on the economic return to particular caring skills, the study broadens the understanding of care work, especially in relation to US wage inequality.     

产业集聚、循环经济以及二者关系的理论综述

产业集聚和循环经济问题已成为学界的研究热点。本文综述了产业集聚、循环经济问题研究的渊源、现状以及国内学者研究二者关系的初步进展．并指出产业是发展循环经济的重要依托．产业集聚为发展循环经济创造了得天独厚的条件，而循环经济能确保产业集聚得以持续发展。     

Location,internationalization and performance of firms in Italy: a multilevel approach

Competition is increasingly global. However, location still matters: often firms cluster in the same geographic areas in order to exploit locational externalities and improve their competitiveness. This article analyses how Italian firms' performance, proxied by their propensity to export, depends both on geographical and institutional context and on individual characteristics. Using a multilevel approach, we estimate and distinguish the effect of individual (firm level) and context (province level) variables on the performance of internationalized Italian firms. We show that both firms and province heterogeneity shape the results.     

Location in scientific-technological parks,dynamic capabilities,and innovation

Determining the sources of business success in highly dynamic and turbulent environments is very complicated. A broad consensus exists in this respect about the need to contemplate the innovation as a key element for competitiveness. This reasoning stems from its positive effects on growth and on efficiency, of innovative firms in comparison with non-innovative ones. Geographical location provides a unique and different context and this paper aims to analyse the influence exerted by the territory on dynamic capabilities and, consequently, on business competitiveness. Using a sample of 610 high-technology companies drawn from the Technological Innovation Panel (2012), it is confirmed not only that firms located in scientific-technological parks are more innovative but also that dynamic capabilities play a mediating role in this relationship.     

抓技能,重过程,与企业零距离对接

在严峻的就业形势下,如何提高学生的就业率,让学生更快的适应工作岗位,关键是培养企业需要的人才,这就要求我们从课程的设置上紧跟时代的需要,让学生实用、够用。     

修复人口生态确保人口安全——立足现实、着眼未来的我国人口可持续发展策略

人口生态是构筑人口安全的基础,文章以2008年<中国统计年鉴>相关数据为基础简要分析了我国当前的人口生态与人口安全现状,对今后的人口政策提出了几点建议.     

Conflict, Distribution and Population Growth

This paper studies an optimal foraging model where distributive conflicts among foragers emerge from population growth. It investigates distributive rules set to resolve the conflicts. Efficient distributive rules are the ones associated with the most efficient productive decisions. Unequal societies, where the ruling class or King maximizes the surplus, engender the choice of more efficient productive combinations and to a smaller population relative to egalitarian societies.