从经济特区到创新型城市:目标与路径

<正>经济特区向何处去?十七大报告给有答案:更好发挥经济特区、上海浦东新区、天津滨海新区在改革开放和自主创新中的重要作用。这是报告在精辟论述了"提高自主创新能力,建设创新型国家"之后,明确将特区使命与这一"国家发展战略的核心、提高综合国力的关键"联系起来。其中既肯定了经济特区在过去改革开放中     

Endogenous Symmetry of Shocks in a Monetary Union

The monetary union issue, when assessed with the traditional inferences for optimal currency areas, misses an important dimension. Increased specialisation induced by reduced transaction costs, suggested by Krugman's lessons of Massachusetts, is only a part of the story. Even if agglomeration and inter-industry trade may occur as a result of reduced transaction costs, this tendency may be counteracted by the elimination of uncertainty associated with bilateral exchange rate variability within the monetary union.Thus, in contradiction to what is generally assumed on the basis of the reduction in transaction costs only, the European Monetary Union (EMU) is likely to foster intra-industry trade in Europe, leading to more symmetric shocks between member states. The monetary union will endogenously create the conditions of its success. Empirical evidence is provided for EU countries' bilateral trade over the period 1980–1994, using disaggregated trade data.     

Endogenous capital utilization in a neoclassical growth model

This paper introduces a variable rate of capital utilization and depreciation into a modified Ramsey-type neoclassical growth model via the well-known concept of pure user cost. The optimal utilization rate is found to be determined by the opportunity cost of holding capital or the net real interest rate. As a consequence, this rate may vary in the short run, so total services of capital become a control rather than a state variable. Furthermore, the introduction of a variable utilization rate yields a slower rate of convergence toward the steady state, inducing more persistence in the transitional dynamics. To illustrate how the endogenous choice of utilization acts on the system, some simulations are carried out, including the transition period when there is a temporary fall in the exogenous real interest rate.     

Deviations from long-run equilibria and probabilities of devaluations: An empirical analysis of Danish realignments

Deviations from Long-Run Equilibria and Probabilities of Devaluations — An Empirical Analysis of Danish Realignments. — The probabilities of realignments between the Danish krone and the D-mark are investigated for the 1979–1995 period. Two multivariate systems are estimated. In the I (1) systems, the deviations from the cointegration relations are used as explanatory variables when determining the probabilities of exchange rate changes. It is found that real imbalances in the economy have to a large extent determined the probabilities of central parity changes. Furthermore, the probabilities of central parity changes have been significantly lower after 1983.     

Endogenous Growth and External Balance in a Small Open Economy

This paper puts forward an intertemporal model of a small open economy which allows for the simultaneous analysis of the determination of endogenous growth and external balance. The model assumes infinitely lived, overlapping generations that maximize lifetime utility, and competitive firms that maximize their net present value in the presence of adjustment costs for investment. Domestic securities are assumed perfect substitutes for foreign securities and the economy is assumed small in the sense of being a price taker in international goods and assets markets. It is shown that the endogenous growth rate is determined solely as a function of the determinants of domestic investment, such as the world real interest rate, the technology of domestic production and adjustment costs for investment and is independent of the preferences of domestic households and budgetary policies. The preferences of consumers and budgetary policies determine the savings rate. The current account and external balance are functions of the difference between the savings and the investment rates. The world real interest rate affects growth negatively but has a positive impact on external balance. The productivity of domestic capital affects growth positively but causes a deterioration in external balance. Population growth, government consumption and government debt affect the current account and external balance negatively, but do not affect the endogenous growth rate.     

Endogenous credit-card acceptance in a model of precautionary demand for money

A credit-card acceptance decision by retailers is embedded intoa simple model of precautionary demand for money. The modelgives a new explanation for how the use of credit-cards candiffer so widely across countries. Retailers’ propensityto accept cards reduces the need for buyers to hold cash asthe chance of a stock-out (of cash) is reduced. When retailersmake their decision with respect to credit-card acceptance theydo not take into account the effect that decision has on othersellers. This externality generates multiple equilibria oversome portions of the parameter space.     

Endogenous transportation technology in a Cournot differential game with intraindustry trade

We investigate a dynamic Cournot duopoly with intraindustry trade, where firms invest in R&D to reduce the level of iceberg transportation costs. We adopt both open-loop and closed-loop equilibrium concepts, showing that a unique (saddle point) steady state exists in both cases. In the open-loop model, optimal investments and the resulting efficiency of transportation technology are independent of the relative size of the two countries. On the contrary, in the closed-loop case firms’ R&D incentives are driven by the relative size of the two countries. Policy implications are also evaluated.     

累积创新中的内生许可证

本文通过一个不完全信息动态博弈分析了累积创新环境下许可证形式的内生决定机制。我们考察的是成本降低型的过程创新,其中后续创新者的类型是其私人信息。如果发生专利诉讼,法院判决后续创新者是否对先期创新者构成侵权,侵权概率依赖于专利保护宽度的大小。根据专利保护宽度和后续创新者的类型分布,我们给出了相应的贝叶斯精炼均衡。我们发现如下重要结果:第一,对先期创新者而言,事前许可证的重要性在于维护效率,即防止L类型创新的退出,而事后许可证的重要性则在于掠夺租金。如果不存在退出问题,则市场结果和社会福利都与是否存在事前许可证无关。第二,诉讼可以出现在博弈的均衡路径上。诉讼行为和是否存在事前许可证无关,而发生诉讼时先期创新者获胜的概率随专利保护宽度先减后增。第三,如果存在退出问题,则事前许可证对社会福利至关重要;专利保护宽度同时影响市场总利润和利润分配。此时,若仅有事后许可证,先期创新者的利润可能随专利保护宽度的增加而下降。第四,给定存在事前许可证,则依赖于诉讼的成本和反垄断效应,社会福利最大化的专利保护宽度可能对应于内解,也可能对应于边角解。     

Endogenous Comparative Advantages in Developing Economies

This paper focusses on endogenous comparative advantages in developing countries, in particular on labour reallocation from low-productivity informal sectors into high-productivity formal sectors. This mechanism is important for two reasons. First, it contributes to the growth potential of developing countries and the absorption capacity for further capital accumulation. Second, labour reallocation will keep developing economies specialized in low-skilled intensive products in the coming decades and it will keep the wages of low-skilled workers low. We analyse this mechanism by simulating an increase in the skill intensity of developing countries the coming decades. These simulations are carried out with WorldScan, a dynamic AGE model of the world economy. An increasing skill intensity in LDCs will stimulate the global supply of high-skilled intensive products more than the supply of low-skilled intensive products, but to a much lesser extent than one would expect in static analyses or in absence of informal sectors.     

边干边学和人力资本内生化的内生经济增长模型

Paul.M.Romer 1990发表的“Endogenous Technological Change”通过一个三部门模型建立了内生经济增长理论,其主要结论是人力资本总量决定经济增长速度。但是罗默模型仍有很多缺陷,首先它未把最终生产部门通过边学边干所产生的新设计包含进去,本文第一部分着力于在罗默模型中加入最终生产部门的边学边干效应,并得出结论:边学边干的加入不会改变经济均衡时的增长速度,但是会使部分人力资本从研究部门流入最终产品生产部门,对模型的这一改变并没有产生太强的结果。然后,本文打破了人力资本总量外生给定这一罗默关键性的假设,在原来罗默模型三部门的基础上加入了一个部门——教育部门,同时定义了人力资本的积累方程,最后解出了均衡时的解。     

创新开发功能 争建一流开发区

面对经济全球化趋势增强,新技术革命迅猛发展,我国开始实施第三步战略目标的国际国内机遇,“十五”期间,江苏昆山经济技术开发区的基本发展思路和总体目标是:以建设国内外具有竞争力的一流开发区为目标,展开新一轮“大投入、大开发、大发展。”创新开发功能,提升环境质量,提高承载能力和开放水平,“建一流环境,树一流品牌,争一流服务,办一流项目,聚一流人才,创一流开发区”,真正把昆山开发区建设成为经济发达,功能完美,环境优美,高效文明的现代化新城区。     

"新区":后开发区时代的产物

自1992年上海浦东新区成立以来,全国许多地区都相继建立了自己的新区,如天津滨海新区、武汉新区、苏州新区、无锡新区、大连金港新区、青岛黄岛新区、沈阳铁西新区与浑南新区以及重庆北部新区等约有20多个,形成了继开发区热之后的新区热.其中,除合肥政务文化新区、江西南昌的红谷滩新区等极少数属于新城区性质外,绝大部分都是本文要讨论的经济新区问题.新区的出现和发展绝非偶然,它既与开发区有着千丝万缕的联系,又具有鲜明而突出的个性.笔者认为,可以暂且将其定义为综合经济区;如就形成机理和功能使命而言,它是后开发区时代的产物,即由以开发区为代表的功能经济区向充满创新活力的新城市转变的过渡形式.这一推论,来自以下三个理由的支撑:     

高新技术产业集群中的内生增长机制

产业集群是经济发展中的一个重要现象,研究高新技术产业集群,对经济布局的合理化、资源配置的优化、区域竞争优势的形成都具有重要的意义。本文从分析高新技术产业集群的基本理论及特征出发,对高新技术产业集群的内生增长机制进行了研究。     

制度变迁与内生经济增长

本文将制度变迁引入了内生增长模型,刻画了制度影响经济增长的内在机制,求解了社会计划者问题的均衡解,并对解的经济含义进行了讨论。模型的基本结论是,制度变迁是经济增长的决定性因素,政府可以通过合理配置人力资本来促进经济增长。     

制度、技术和内生经济增长

对于一个发展中国家 ,欲实现快速的工业化和可持续的经济增长 ,就必须能够以最低廉的成本来获取技术的进步。半个多世纪以来 ,大量的经济增长理论和发展经济学文献均对该问题给予了高度的关注 ,也产生了各种各样的学说。 80年代中期兴起的内生增长理论 ,无疑再次对发展经济学起到了极大的推动作用。内生经济增长理论在近二十年来发展 ,是否真正使发展经济学摆脱了以往的困境 ?本文将从这一角度出发 ,对现有文献进行一个简单的讨论。并试图从中总结出一些经验 ,进而对将来的理论进展提出一些看法。     

Endogenous and exogenous variables in trade agreement policy:

Abstract

Trade agreement negotiations are the forum in which a state tries to synchronise its trade policies with other countries. This article examines the effects of endogenous and exogenous variables in trade agreement decision-making. The study concentrates on Finland's most important trade agreement negotiations with the Soviet Union, Germany, Great Britain, and EFT A from the 1930s to the 1960s. Finland was a small, open economy that was dependent on foreign trade. In the 1930s Finland had to adapt to international protectionism, which came to dominate international trade until the late 1950s. During the Second World War Finland had to regulate her foreign trade as a part of rationing systems. After the war protectionist ideas continued to dominate international trade policy decision-making. Accordingly, many regulative policies survived into the post-war period too. Finally, deregulation in Finnish foreign trade policy started in the late 1950s, the FINN-EFTA-negotiations being the final turning point to a more liberal era in foreign trade. The essential question in the article is, what kind of influence did the endogenous interests have on Finnish trade policy decision-making considering the various situations in international politics, for example, protectionist and deregulative tendencies.     

Endogenous Sequencing in Strategic Trade Policy Games Under Uncertainty

This paper examines a strategic trade policy game with endogenous timing. A trade-off between commitment and flexibility is identified. The equilibrium timing of trade policy decisions is shown to highly depend on the degree of demand uncertainty. When demand uncertainty is low, countervailing duties will never be used because the home government always sets its import tariff before the foreign government sets its export subsidy. When demand uncertainty reaches a threshold level, the home government starts to find it optimal to move second with positive probability. As a result, we provide an economic rationale for the prevailing use of countervailing duties in practice.