从经济特区到创新型城市:目标与路径

<正>经济特区向何处去?十七大报告给有答案:更好发挥经济特区、上海浦东新区、天津滨海新区在改革开放和自主创新中的重要作用。这是报告在精辟论述了"提高自主创新能力,建设创新型国家"之后,明确将特区使命与这一"国家发展战略的核心、提高综合国力的关键"联系起来。其中既肯定了经济特区在过去改革开放中     

Deviations from long-run equilibria and probabilities of devaluations: An empirical analysis of Danish realignments

Deviations from Long-Run Equilibria and Probabilities of Devaluations — An Empirical Analysis of Danish Realignments. — The probabilities of realignments between the Danish krone and the D-mark are investigated for the 1979–1995 period. Two multivariate systems are estimated. In the I (1) systems, the deviations from the cointegration relations are used as explanatory variables when determining the probabilities of exchange rate changes. It is found that real imbalances in the economy have to a large extent determined the probabilities of central parity changes. Furthermore, the probabilities of central parity changes have been significantly lower after 1983.     

Endogenous Symmetry of Shocks in a Monetary Union

The monetary union issue, when assessed with the traditional inferences for optimal currency areas, misses an important dimension. Increased specialisation induced by reduced transaction costs, suggested by Krugman's lessons of Massachusetts, is only a part of the story. Even if agglomeration and inter-industry trade may occur as a result of reduced transaction costs, this tendency may be counteracted by the elimination of uncertainty associated with bilateral exchange rate variability within the monetary union.Thus, in contradiction to what is generally assumed on the basis of the reduction in transaction costs only, the European Monetary Union (EMU) is likely to foster intra-industry trade in Europe, leading to more symmetric shocks between member states. The monetary union will endogenously create the conditions of its success. Empirical evidence is provided for EU countries' bilateral trade over the period 1980–1994, using disaggregated trade data.     

Endogenous capital utilization in a neoclassical growth model

This paper introduces a variable rate of capital utilization and depreciation into a modified Ramsey-type neoclassical growth model via the well-known concept of pure user cost. The optimal utilization rate is found to be determined by the opportunity cost of holding capital or the net real interest rate. As a consequence, this rate may vary in the short run, so total services of capital become a control rather than a state variable. Furthermore, the introduction of a variable utilization rate yields a slower rate of convergence toward the steady state, inducing more persistence in the transitional dynamics. To illustrate how the endogenous choice of utilization acts on the system, some simulations are carried out, including the transition period when there is a temporary fall in the exogenous real interest rate.     

Errors-in-Variables Bounds in a Tobit Model of Endogenous Protection

The errors-in-variables (EIV) problem is pervasive in econometrics but has not received the attention it deserves, perhaps because it is difficult to resolve. The first objective of this paper is to demonstrate the effectiveness of recently developed methods to deal with the EIV problem in models with censoring. The second objective of this paper is to empirically examine, in light of the EIV problem, theories of endogenous protection that have become important in trade theory in their ability to explain why nations do not follow the traditional economic maxim of free trade. These theories emphasizing political-economic factors have gained momentum based on a set of empirical studies that have sought to prove their validity. Whether inferences about the theories of endogenous protection are gravely affected by errors in variables is examined using data on U.S. nontariff barriers with respect to nine developed countries. The theoretical developments in Klepper (1988) and Klepper and Learner (1984) are combined with a result from Levine (1986), which usefully extends the use of EIV diagnostics to a model with censoring.     

Endogenous Growth and External Balance in a Small Open Economy

This paper puts forward an intertemporal model of a small open economy which allows for the simultaneous analysis of the determination of endogenous growth and external balance. The model assumes infinitely lived, overlapping generations that maximize lifetime utility, and competitive firms that maximize their net present value in the presence of adjustment costs for investment. Domestic securities are assumed perfect substitutes for foreign securities and the economy is assumed small in the sense of being a price taker in international goods and assets markets. It is shown that the endogenous growth rate is determined solely as a function of the determinants of domestic investment, such as the world real interest rate, the technology of domestic production and adjustment costs for investment and is independent of the preferences of domestic households and budgetary policies. The preferences of consumers and budgetary policies determine the savings rate. The current account and external balance are functions of the difference between the savings and the investment rates. The world real interest rate affects growth negatively but has a positive impact on external balance. The productivity of domestic capital affects growth positively but causes a deterioration in external balance. Population growth, government consumption and government debt affect the current account and external balance negatively, but do not affect the endogenous growth rate.     

Endogenous credit-card acceptance in a model of precautionary demand for money

A credit-card acceptance decision by retailers is embedded intoa simple model of precautionary demand for money. The modelgives a new explanation for how the use of credit-cards candiffer so widely across countries. Retailers’ propensityto accept cards reduces the need for buyers to hold cash asthe chance of a stock-out (of cash) is reduced. When retailersmake their decision with respect to credit-card acceptance theydo not take into account the effect that decision has on othersellers. This externality generates multiple equilibria oversome portions of the parameter space.     

Endogenous transportation technology in a Cournot differential game with intraindustry trade

We investigate a dynamic Cournot duopoly with intraindustry trade, where firms invest in R&D to reduce the level of iceberg transportation costs. We adopt both open-loop and closed-loop equilibrium concepts, showing that a unique (saddle point) steady state exists in both cases. In the open-loop model, optimal investments and the resulting efficiency of transportation technology are independent of the relative size of the two countries. On the contrary, in the closed-loop case firms’ R&D incentives are driven by the relative size of the two countries. Policy implications are also evaluated.     

累积创新中的内生许可证

本文通过一个不完全信息动态博弈分析了累积创新环境下许可证形式的内生决定机制。我们考察的是成本降低型的过程创新,其中后续创新者的类型是其私人信息。如果发生专利诉讼,法院判决后续创新者是否对先期创新者构成侵权,侵权概率依赖于专利保护宽度的大小。根据专利保护宽度和后续创新者的类型分布,我们给出了相应的贝叶斯精炼均衡。我们发现如下重要结果:第一,对先期创新者而言,事前许可证的重要性在于维护效率,即防止L类型创新的退出,而事后许可证的重要性则在于掠夺租金。如果不存在退出问题,则市场结果和社会福利都与是否存在事前许可证无关。第二,诉讼可以出现在博弈的均衡路径上。诉讼行为和是否存在事前许可证无关,而发生诉讼时先期创新者获胜的概率随专利保护宽度先减后增。第三,如果存在退出问题,则事前许可证对社会福利至关重要;专利保护宽度同时影响市场总利润和利润分配。此时,若仅有事后许可证,先期创新者的利润可能随专利保护宽度的增加而下降。第四,给定存在事前许可证,则依赖于诉讼的成本和反垄断效应,社会福利最大化的专利保护宽度可能对应于内解,也可能对应于边角解。     

Endogenous price leadership in a duopoly: Equal products, unequal technology

In the present paper we study endogenous price leadership in the context of a homogeneous product Bertrand duopoly model in which the firms have different, strictly convex cost functions. In such a framework it is well known that a simultaneous move price choice game does not have an equilibrium in pure strategies, but it has an equilibrium in mixed strategies. In the Stackelberg games with an exogenous price leader, we show that a pure strategy subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) always exists. Although the SPNE might not be unique, the payoffs are the same across all SPNE. Finally, we analyze the issue of endogenous price leadership using the continuous version of the Robson (1990) timing game. The result is unexpected. One would expect the more efficient firm to emerge as the endogenous price leader. This is not always true. In most cases the endogenous leader is the firm with the highest "threshold" price. However, we also provide conditions under which the more efficient firm emerges as the leader. Our paper essentially complements Yano (2001) , which is based on the Hamilton and Slutsky (1990) framework.     

Endogenous Comparative Advantages in Developing Economies

This paper focusses on endogenous comparative advantages in developing countries, in particular on labour reallocation from low-productivity informal sectors into high-productivity formal sectors. This mechanism is important for two reasons. First, it contributes to the growth potential of developing countries and the absorption capacity for further capital accumulation. Second, labour reallocation will keep developing economies specialized in low-skilled intensive products in the coming decades and it will keep the wages of low-skilled workers low. We analyse this mechanism by simulating an increase in the skill intensity of developing countries the coming decades. These simulations are carried out with WorldScan, a dynamic AGE model of the world economy. An increasing skill intensity in LDCs will stimulate the global supply of high-skilled intensive products more than the supply of low-skilled intensive products, but to a much lesser extent than one would expect in static analyses or in absence of informal sectors.     

Ciskei as a free enterprise zone∗

There are two main thrusts in this paper. First, we are concerned to demonstrate the appropriateness of a free enterprise zone interpretation of Ciskei's recently implemented industrial development policy. Second, we evaluate the likely success of the policy in free enterprise zone terms. The terms consist both of attracting industry to, and generating entrepeneurship within, Ciskei. While welcoming an alternative to what we consider an insupportably expensive decentralisation scheme, we nevertheless conclude with some scepticism regarding the development potential of Ciskei's policy innovations.     

Endogenous business cycles in a perpetual youth model with financial market imperfections**

An economy in which entrepreneurs and financiers interact with each other through an imperfect financial market is investigated by applying a dynamic general equilibrium theory. In each period, there is a certain probability of each entrepreneur's life ending, and a certain number of entrepreneurs are newly born. Although entrepreneurs are potential capital producers, they receive an idiosyncratic productivity shock in each period. Therefore, entrepreneurs who draw higher productivity become capital producers and those who draw lower productivity become lenders. Financiers do not have an entrepreneurial talent for capital production, and thus they lend their assets in the financial market to acquire an interest income. In equilibrium, deterministic endogenous business cycles can occur at the intermediate level of financial constraints.     

边干边学和人力资本内生化的内生经济增长模型

Paul.M.Romer 1990发表的“Endogenous Technological Change”通过一个三部门模型建立了内生经济增长理论,其主要结论是人力资本总量决定经济增长速度。但是罗默模型仍有很多缺陷,首先它未把最终生产部门通过边学边干所产生的新设计包含进去,本文第一部分着力于在罗默模型中加入最终生产部门的边学边干效应,并得出结论:边学边干的加入不会改变经济均衡时的增长速度,但是会使部分人力资本从研究部门流入最终产品生产部门,对模型的这一改变并没有产生太强的结果。然后,本文打破了人力资本总量外生给定这一罗默关键性的假设,在原来罗默模型三部门的基础上加入了一个部门——教育部门,同时定义了人力资本的积累方程,最后解出了均衡时的解。     

Endogenous Efficiency Gains from Mergers

This article analyzes endogenous efficiency gains from mergers. It considers oligopolistic homogeneous good markets and duopolistic and triopolistic markets under product differentiation (PD) (quantity and price competition). In a two‐stage game, firms invest in cost‐reducing innovation (with and without mergers) and then compete in output/prices. It is found that in homogeneous good markets, all possible mergers generate efficiency gains, and that these are most significant when R&D spillovers are very low or very high. Efficiency gains increase with the number of insiders and generally decrease with the number of outsiders. With PD, in most cases, the merger generates efficiency gains when spillovers and/or PD are sufficiently high. With PD, efficiency gains increase with spillovers, but may increase or decrease with the level of PD. The implications of the results for the relationship between competition and innovation outputs and for merger policy are discussed.     

高新技术产业集群中的内生增长机制

产业集群是经济发展中的一个重要现象，研究高新技术产业集群，对经济布局的合理化、资源配置的优化、区域竞争优势的形成都具有重要的意义。本文从分析高新技术产业集群的基本理论及特征出发，对高新技术产业集群的内生增长机制进行了研究。     

"新区":后开发区时代的产物

自1992年上海浦东新区成立以来,全国许多地区都相继建立了自己的新区,如天津滨海新区、武汉新区、苏州新区、无锡新区、大连金港新区、青岛黄岛新区、沈阳铁西新区与浑南新区以及重庆北部新区等约有20多个,形成了继开发区热之后的新区热.其中,除合肥政务文化新区、江西南昌的红谷滩新区等极少数属于新城区性质外,绝大部分都是本文要讨论的经济新区问题.新区的出现和发展绝非偶然,它既与开发区有着千丝万缕的联系,又具有鲜明而突出的个性.笔者认为,可以暂且将其定义为综合经济区;如就形成机理和功能使命而言,它是后开发区时代的产物,即由以开发区为代表的功能经济区向充满创新活力的新城市转变的过渡形式.这一推论,来自以下三个理由的支撑:     

创新开发功能 争建一流开发区

面对经济全球化趋势增强,新技术革命迅猛发展,我国开始实施第三步战略目标的国际国内机遇,“十五”期间,江苏昆山经济技术开发区的基本发展思路和总体目标是:以建设国内外具有竞争力的一流开发区为目标,展开新一轮“大投入、大开发、大发展。”创新开发功能,提升环境质量,提高承载能力和开放水平,“建一流环境,树一流品牌,争一流服务,办一流项目,聚一流人才,创一流开发区”,真正把昆山开发区建设成为经济发达,功能完美,环境优美,高效文明的现代化新城区。