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1.
The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of tourism in the Tunisian economic growth. We used a trivariate model of real gross domestic product (GDP), real international tourism receipts and real effective exchange rate to discuss the relationship between tourism and economic growth. By using annual data for Tunisia for the period of 1970–2007, our results reveal that there is a cointegrating relationship between tourism and economic growth. In addition, our results for the Granger causality test indicate that tourism has a positive impact on GDP growth unidirectionally. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
This paper analyses the tourism-led growth hypothesis for the four countries of the MERCOSUR regional trade block. By applying nonlinear techniques, we explore whether tourism activity leads – in the long run – to economic growth, or, alternatively, economic expansion drives tourism growth, or indeed a bidirectional relationship exists between the two variables. To this end, non-parametric cointegration and causality tests are applied to quarterly data for the period 1990–2011. We show the existence of a cointegrated relationship between real per capita gross domestic product and tourism expenditure for all countries. Moreover, the linearity of this relation is rejected for both Argentina and Brazil (economies with a relatively diversified structure). The non-parametric causality tests confirm in all cases the causality from tourism to growth. Meanwhile, only for Uruguay and Argentina causality also goes in the inverse direction (from growth to tourism). Finally, the paper compares the results of the nonlinear approach with those obtained by using the traditional linear methodology.  相似文献   

3.
The aim of this paper is to examine the long‐run and short‐run relationship between tourism, real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Croatia. The econometric framework used for analysis is the Johansen Maximum Likelihood cointegration technique. For testing the stability of long‐run equilibrium relationship vector error correction model technique has been applied on a quarterly data set covering the period 1996–2013. The main findings of the paper confirm the stability of the long‐run equilibrium relationship between tourist arrivals (ARRIVAL), openness of the economy (OPEN) and real effective exchange rate as independent variable and gross domestic product (GDP) as dependent variable in Croatia. Furthermore, the results indicate short‐run causality between OPEN and GDP, as well as between real effective exchange rate and GDP. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
This paper employs Granger causality test to investigate the long‐run and the short‐run dynamic interactions among tourism, economic development and health care development in Singapore. The test reveals that there is long‐run unidirectional Granger causality from health care development to economic development and from tourism to economic development. Both health care and tourism have positive effects on economic development in the long run. In the short run, there is a unidirectional Granger causality from economic development to health care development and a bidirectional causality between health care development and tourism. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
This study applies the bounds testing approach, error‐correction modelling and persistence profile to analyse the dynamic relationship between real tourism receipts, real income and real exchange rates in Malaysia. The present study covers the annual sample period from 1974 to 2009. The results reveal that a long‐run relationship exists between the variables. In the short run, this study finds no Granger causality between real tourism receipts and real income, whereas there is bidirectional causality in the long‐run. Moreover, we also find unidirectional causality running from real exchange rates to real tourism receipts and real income in both short‐ and long‐run. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998–2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey.  相似文献   

7.
Tourism is one of the world's largest industries and an increasingly important source of foreign currency that is used to finance economic growth. The purpose of this study is to examine the long-term and short-term relationships between tourism and economic growth in Iran, by using annual data covering the 1985–2013 period and autoregressive distributed lag and the Error Correction model to examine the relationships between variables. The findings showed that there is a positive relationship between tourism expenditure and economic growth in the long term and short term. The result indicate that there is also positive relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER), foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth. The Granger causality test shows a bidirectional causality running between tourism expenditure and economic growth.  相似文献   

8.
In this paper, we test the causal relationship between economic growth and tourism development in the 1995–2012 period using recently developed panel Granger causality tests that allow for country-level heterogeneity, thus leading to more accurate results for the 12 Mediterranean countries. Although results of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin [(2012) testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460] panel Granger causality test show a unidirectional causality from tourism development to economic growth, results of the Croux and Reusens [(2013). Do stock prices contain predictive power for the future economic activity? A Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain. Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, 93–103] panel Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain show that there is a bidirectional temporary and permanent causality between tourism development and economic growth. The bidirectional causality relationship between tourism development and economic growth, which is the main finding of this study, suggests that in order to achieve high economic growth, policy-makers should focus on developing the tourism sector.  相似文献   

9.
The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between tourism development and economic growth in the Mediterranean countries using the newly developed panel Granger causality tests for the 1995–2010 period. It is concluded that while there is bidirectional causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for Portugal, unidirectional causal nexus from economic growth to tourism development is found for Spain, Italy, Tunisia, Cyprus, Croatia, Bulgaria and Greece. Therefore, the growth-led tourism hypothesis is supported in case of these seven countries. On the other hand, there is no causal relation for Malta and Egypt. The study finds evidence to support the tourism-led growth hypothesis for a group of panel in Mediterranean countries. The results of the overall study suggest that governments of Mediterranean countries should focus on economic policies to promote tourism as a potential source of economic growth.  相似文献   

10.
This study examines the long‐run relationship between tourism development and economic growth in a small island destination. Determining whether the nature of the relationship is unidirectional or bidirectional provides insightful information as to policies to be implemented. This information is crucial in a resource‐poor environment, such as a small island destination. The study employs an econometric methodology consisting of unit root testing, co‐integration analysis, vector error correction modeling and Granger causality testing. Results confirm the reciprocal hypothesis. The policy implication is that resource allocation supporting both the tourism and tourism‐related industries could benefit both tourism development and economic growth. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Since the 2008 global financial crisis and resulting recession, many countries have been following unconventional monetary policies. Little information is known on how these policies may influence tourism demand. This study starts to fill this gap by investigating the impact of the Japanese economic policy known as Abenomics on South Koreans’ travel to Japan, the largest inbound market for Japan. Per capita gross domestic product, relative prices, and exchange rates are significant determinants of Japanese inbound tourism. As these variables have been influenced by Abenomics, one can infer that Abenomics is associated with a significant increase in tourist arrivals from South Korea. Findings highlight the importance of government economic policy in stimulating international tourism demand through its impact on the economy.  相似文献   

12.
The objective of this study is to analyse the long-run dynamic relationship of carbon dioxide emissions, real gross domestic product (GDP), the square of real GDP, energy consumption, trade and tourism under an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries. Since we find the presence of cross-sectional dependence within the panel time-series data, we apply second-generation unit root tests, cointegration test and causality test which can deal with cross-sectional dependence problems. The cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and the cross-sectionally augmented Im-Pesaran-Shin (CIPS) unit root tests indicate that the analysed variables become stationary at their first differences. The Lagrange multiplier bootstrap panel cointegration test shows the existence of a long-run relationship between the analysed variables. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation technique indicates that energy consumption and tourism contribute to the levels of gas emissions, while increases in trade lead to environmental improvements. In addition, the EKC hypothesis cannot be supported as the sign of coefficients on GDP and GDP2 is negative and positive, respectively. Moreover, the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality tests exploit a variety of causal relationship between the analysed variables. The OECD countries are suggested to invest in improving energy efficiency, regulate necessary environmental protection policies for tourism sector in specific and promote trading activities through several types of encouragement act.  相似文献   

13.
This research note attempts to re‐investigate the validity of tourism‐led growth hypothesis for Malaysia based on the data set of 12 different tourism markets from January 1995 to February 2009. The error‐correction modelling‐based cointegration test shows that economic growth and international tourist arrivals are cointegrated for all tourism markets. Nevertheless, the Granger causality results demonstrate that not all international tourism markets Granger‐cause economic growth. Therefore, identification of potential tourism markets is vital for implementing effective tourism marketing policies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
A longitudinal analysis of tourism trends in Mauritius is conducted using published statistics and reports compiled by the Government of Mauritius. A number of trend indicators and ratios are derived and plotted as time series data from 1979 to 1998. Interesting trends emerge that may be of value to other Indian Ocean Island tourism agencies and analysts. The ratios calculated are as follows: number of nights spent per tourist, discounted earnings per tourist, discounted earnings per night, contribution to GDP per tourism earnings, discounted contribution to GDP per tourist, percentage of nights spent in hotels, nights spent per tourist in hotels and nights spent per tourist in informal accommodation, average expenditure per tourist accommodated in hotels and average expenditure per tourist accommodated in informal accommodation (private bungalows, boarding/guest houses and homes of friends/relatives).

The main findings are that the continued success of tourism in Mauritius rests significantly on tourists accommodated in the informal accommodation sector and that tourist spending in real terms in Mauritius has declined from 1990 to 1997.  相似文献   

15.
International tourism has expanded enormously over recent decades, fuelled by changing consumer tastes, advances in transport and new holiday destinations. The present study aims at analysing the linkages between economic growth and tourism‐based economies. An econometric model for a selected number of small countries has been implemented to investigate the nature, magnitude and overall significance of the demand for tourism. Countries were selected to capture regional diversity, differences in market orientation and a range of experiences, from emerging to long‐standing industries. The results show that tourism can be a significant engine of economic growth, when the elasticity of substitution between manufacturing goods and tourism services is < 1. Finally two stylised facts emerged, namely: (i) countries specialised in tourism register good economic performances; (ii) these same countries have small dimensions as defined by international trade theory. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
This paper examines the causal relationship between air transport and economic growth in the South Asian context. Using panel data over a period of 42 years (1973–2014), we apply Pedroni/Johansen cointegration test methods, followed by Granger long-run and Wald short-run causality tests. To allow for spatial heterogeneity we then apply Time Series Cross Section (TSCS) Granger causality tests for each of the eight analysed countries separately. Our results confirm a long-run uni-directional Granger causality which runs from GDP to air passenger traffic and also to air freight volumes. Contrary to the existing literature we do not find a long-run bi-directional causality which confirms that spatial dimensions and context matter (i.e. low income and large populations). The absence of short-run causality and the identified time lags of 3–4 years should guide aviation firms and policy makers in the preparation of necessary infrastructure required to support the strong air transport growth potential.  相似文献   

17.
This paper is aimed to test the causality relationship between the cycles of tourism and economic development for the case of Spain using quarterly time‐series data on gross domestic product, the number of nights spent in Spanish tourist accommodations and real exchange rates from 1980 to 2013. A distinction between nights spent by foreign and national tourists is also made. Although no evidence of causality is found on preliminary results, structural breaks affecting the relationships between the variables are detected. Causality from economic growth towards tourist activity is found until 1985. Results also confirm bidirectional causality from 2000 onwards. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
ABSTRACT

The present study explores the impact of tourism on environmental pollution using a comprehensive set of air pollutants, namely CO2, CO, NOx, SO2, PM2.5, and PM10, in a multivariate framework under the context of the Mediterranean countries. The panel cointegration tests indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between environmental pollution, energy consumption, economic development and tourism growth. The tourism-induced EKC hypothesis is validated for four out of six air pollution indicators in the Southern Mediterranean countries, whereas in the Northern Mediterranean region we fail to document any evidence supporting the hypothesis. In addition, tourism growth has a differential impact on different air pollution indicators across regions. The major findings from the panel Granger causality tests show that bidirectional causality exists between four air pollutants (CO2, NOx, SO2, and PM2.5) and tourism and unidirectional causality runs from CO and PM10 to tourism growth in the Northern Mediterranean. In contrast, there is a feedback relationship between environmental pollution (CO and NOx) and tourism growth and one-way causality running from environmental pollution (CO2, SO2, PM2.5, and PM10) to tourism development in the Southern Mediterranean.  相似文献   

19.
The purpose of this article is to investigate the empirical link between foreign direct investment (FDI) in real estate sector (FDIRE) and international tourism (TOUR). Panel co-integration and panel Granger causality techniques are applied to analyse both long- and short-run relationships for the case study of selected OECD countries. Our empirical results show the existence of the long-run and a bi-directional causal relationship between FDIRE and TOUR. The results provide some implications for policy-makers.  相似文献   

20.
Air transport may be a key tool to advance economic development. However, it is uncertain whether air transport boosts economic development, or vice versa. Both views have theoretical and empirical support. In some countries and regions, air transport is important for initiating development, for example by attracting foreign direct investment or granting access to lifelines. Elsewhere, economic development drives air transport demand. Establishing the direction of causality for regions/countries segmented by income level may inform pragmatic policy. This study analyzes the causal relationship between air transport demand and economic development for six sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1981–2018. Vector error correction and vector autoregression models are employed to identify long- and short-run causalities. The results reveal heterogeneous, context-specific causal relationships. In the long-run, for South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya, the direction of causality runs from economic development to air transport demand; for Ethiopia, causality runs in the opposite direction, with increased demand for air transport promoting economic development; and for Senegal and Angola, the relationship is too weak to infer causal directions. Possible explanations for this heterogeneity include differences in per capita income, low-cost carriers' share of national aviation markets, the presence of large home-based airlines, and comparative geographical advantage as a natural hub.  相似文献   

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