Selective versus Random Moose Harvesting: Does it Pay to be a Prudent Predator?

Seeking to act as prudent predators in many biological systems, humans try to harvest in a sustainable manner. In Sweden, wildlife managers and moose hunters use information about the future contribution of individual moose to population growth (i.e., their reproductive value), in order to harvest low-and non-reproductive animals. This selective harvest strategy results in a significantly faster overall population growth rate. To investigate whether this selective harvest policy is economically beneficial, we calculated the present value of the selective moose hunting policy used in Sweden compared to the present value of a non-regulated (i.e. random) moose harvest. Present values of the moose hunting produced by the different hunting regimes were calculated for a period of ten years and at interest rates ranging between 1% and 10%. The difference in present value between the selective hunting policy and the average outcome of random harvesting was SEK 310 million ($ 36 million) and SEK 300 million ($ 34 million), or SEK 1 321 ($ 154) and SEK 1 279 ($ 149) for an average moose hunter, when using interest rates of 3% and 4%, respectively. To determine whether the current selective moose hunting policy is economically profitable or not, benefit estimates like these should be weighted against the costs of upholding the policy. Most of the costs probably lie in providing the hunters with information about the future harvesting prospects and reducing the risk of divergences from the policy. The welfare effects of a hunting policy will also be dependent on the individual hunter's preferences, for instance in terms of their attitudes towards risk. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Chernobyl Effects on Domestic and Inbound Tourism in Sweden -- A Time Series Analysis

This paper estimates the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on domestic and international tourism in Sweden. From ARIMA time series forecasts, outlier search, and intervention analysis based on regional monthly accommodation data from 1978–1989, no effect on domestic tourism is found. However, there is an enduring deterrence effect on incoming tourism. The loss of gross revenue from incoming tourism because of the Chernobyl accident, is estimated to 2.5 billion SEK.     

Natural Resources Damage from Chernobyl: Further Results

This note reports the extent of somecomponents of natural resources damage from theChernobyl nuclear accident in 1986, primarily lossesin producer surplus in the reindeer industry inLapland, Sweden. The damage suffered by Swedish moosehunters has been estimated earlier. The result is alower boundary of natural resources damage amountingto SEK 736 million, or about SEK 112 per adultSwede.     

The Value of Changes in Deer Season Length: An Application of the Nested Multinomial Logit Model

Increasing deer populations can be controlled through manipulatingharvest limits or season length. While such actions often result in benefitsto hunters, both motorists and the agricultural sector also benefit as alower deer population leads to fewer incidences of harmful human-deerencounters. Traditional recreation demand models are often employed toexamine the welfare implications of changes in daily hunting bag limits.Studies measuring the effects of changes in season length, however, arenoticeably absent from the literature. This study uses a nested randomutility model to examine hunter choice over site and season selection toderive the values of changes in season length.     

Willingness to pay for a Green Energy program: A comparison of ex-ante and ex-post hypothetical bias mitigation approaches

The most persistently troubling empirical result in the contingent valuation method literature is the tendency for hypothetical willingness to pay to overestimate real willingness to pay. Two approaches, ex-ante and ex-post, have been developed to mitigate or eliminate the overstatement of hypothetical willingness to pay. The ex-ante approach addresses hypothetical bias in the survey design stage while the ex-post approach addresses hypothetical bias with follow-up questions to the hypothetical willingness to pay question. We find that willingness to pay estimates are similar when either the ex-ante or ex-post approach are employed. Our results suggest that the approaches should be considered as complements and not substitutes. Employing both approaches to mitigate hypothetical bias we estimate that the annual benefits of the regional amenities associated with a Green Energy program in North Carolina are $186 million.     

How Much is Too Much?

In a split sample design, we examine how the number of choice sets, design of the first choice set (context dependence), and the choice of attribute levels in the cost attribute affect the precision in the elicited preferences in otherwise completely identical choice experiment surveys. These issues are investigated for Swedish households’ marginal willingness to pay to reduce power outages. Our results indicate that neither the number of choice sets nor the design of the first choice set has a significant impact on estimated marginal willingness to pay, while the effect was significant for the additive scaling of the cost vector. At the end of the article we discuss the implications of our results on future developments and applications of choice experiments.      

On the willingness to pay to reduce risks of small losses

While willingness to pay is a common concept to measure the benefit gained from a reduction in the probability of loss, it is still questionable how it is linked to risk aversion and risk elimination behaviors, and how it is affected by the presence of an exogenous source of risk. By focusing only on risks of small losses, this article sheds light on these three issues and provides new results on the determinants of the willingness to pay.      

Valuing deer hunting ecosystem services from farm landscapes

Agricultural land provides a wide variety ecosystem services to individuals. These agroecosystem services include wildlife and biodiversity, which in turn support recreational opportunities such as hunting and wildlife viewing. Using the random utility travel cost model, we provide an estimate to illustrate the potential value of the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) provisioning and recreational services provided by these ecosystems to deer hunters, as well as the value of providing deer hunters public access to a percentage of agricultural land.     

Animal rationality and implications for resource management: the case of biological reserves for moose and pine

One logical implication of the Darwinian hypothesis of ‘survival of the fittest’ is that animals exhibit optimizing behavior. Surprisingly, this has not been included in the resource economics literature. This paper explores the implications of optimizing behavior in a model where moose face migration decisions and humans wish to keep moose out of an area to protect young pine trees. The results show that if moose are rational, a given hunting effort will lead to better outcomes for humans than if the moose only focus on harvesting opportunities. This finding suggests that the validity of the standard assumption that animal migration behavior is density-dependent should be re-examined.      

Taking timber browsing damage into account: A density dependant matrix model for the optimal harvest of moose in Scandinavia

At present there is a growing optimism in commercializing the moose hunting in Scandinavia. We developed a deterministic, dynamic bio-economic model to examine the optimal management of land with both moose and timber as potential sources of income. We show that most forest owners should target their moose commerce towards increased quality of the hunt rather than quantity. Due to the inherent complexity of moose: forest interactions we ran the model for a wide array of parameter values to check its sensitivity. Although it was the combined production of timber and moose that gave the highest net value in all run scenarios, timber was the major source of income (69% or more). The main single-factors favouring moose over timber was: low timber productivity of the soil and high moose prices in the market. Also factor synergies can strongly increase the relative value of moose. Our model may serve as a decision tool for choosing the economically optimal moose levels in populations with no across-border migration. It highlights the following need for further studies: I. Quantifying the relationship between browse availability (forest state, moose density) and moose condition (weights, fecundity). II. Quantifying the relationship between browse availability and timber browsing damage.     

The CAMPFIRE programme in Zimbabwe: Payments for wildlife services

Payments for environmental services (PES) have been distinguished from the more common integrated conservation and development projects on the grounds that PES are direct, more cost-effective, less complex institutionally, and therefore more likely to produce the desired results. Both kinds of schemes aim to achieve similar conservation outcomes, however, and generally function in analogous social, political and economic environments. Given the relative novelty of PES, what lessons can be learnt and applied from earlier initiatives? In this paper, we describe the evolution over the first 12 years (1989-2001) of Zimbabwe's Communal Areas Management Programme for Indigenous Resources (CAMPFIRE), a community-based natural resource management programme in which Rural District Councils, on behalf of communities on communal land, are granted the authority to market access to wildlife in their district to safari operators. These in turn sell hunting and photographic safaris to mostly foreign sport hunters and eco-tourists. The District Councils pay the communities a dividend according to an agreed formula. In practice, there have been some underpayments and frequent delays. During 1989-2001, CAMPFIRE generated over US$20 million of transfers to the participating communities, 89% of which came from sport hunting. The scale of benefits varied greatly across districts, wards and households. Twelve of the 37 districts with authority to market wildlife produced 97% of all CAMPFIRE revenues, reflecting the variability in wildlife resources and local institutional arrangements. The programme has been widely emulated in southern and eastern Africa. We suggest five main lessons for emerging PES schemes: community-level commercial transactions can seldom be pursued in isolation; non-differentiated payments weaken incentives; start-up costs can be high and may need to be underwritten; competitive bidding can allow service providers to hold on to rents; and schemes must be flexible and adaptive.     

The Willingness to Accept Value of Statistical Life Relative to the Willingness to Pay Value: Evidence and Policy Implications

Large disparities between willingness to accept (WTA) and willingness to pay (WTP) based values of statistical life are commonly encountered in empirical studies. Standard economic theory suggests that if a public good is easily substitutable there should be no marked disparity between WTA and WTP values for the good, though the disparity increases with reduced substitutability. However, psychologists have shown that people often treat gains and losses asymmetrically and tend to require a substantially larger increase in wealth to compensate for a loss than the amount they would be willing to pay for an equivalent gain. Although most transport projects may aim to improve safety, situations arise when a relaxation of an existing regulation saves resources but increases the risk of death and injuries. A survey was recently carried out in New Zealand to determine people’s willingness to pay to reduce road risks and their willingness to accept compensation for an increase in risk. This paper reports the disparity observed between the two measures and considers some of the problems posed for policymakers.     

WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR DESERT PROTECTION

This paper uses a referendum-style survey approach known as dichotomous-choice contingent valuation to estimate the benefits of restricting the uses of 6.9 million acres of desert land. Statistical techniques estimate the value to California residents of creating three new national parks and 76 new wilderness areas in the high and low deserts of eastern California. The total amount that California residents would be willing to pay to enact desert protection legislation ranges from $177 million to $448 million per year. This estimate hinges on the assumptions that (i) the residents who did not complete and return the survey questionnaire ("nonrespondents") would receive no benefits from desert protection and (ii) the estimate of willingness to pay for the "respondents" is unbiased.     

众筹模式下心理距离对投资者支付意愿的影响

众筹是一种新型的网络融资模式,投资者对项目的支付意愿受到众多因素影响。将众筹的研究视角延伸至投资者心理行为领域,从投资者心理角度,研究时间和空间距离与投资者支付意愿的关系,应用解释水平理论,验证了解释水平与心理距离匹配对投资者支付意愿作用的差异。     

A proactive approach for assessing alternative management programs for an invasive alien pollinator species

Most evaluations of the economic impacts of invasive species are done post facto and concentrate on direct production loss caused. However, the effects of invasive species on non-market services such as biodiversity and landscapes can be considerable. A proactive approach of assessing the expected economic impact of invasive species prior to their occurrence may contribute to greater efficiency of policy makers. Here we used a stated preference method for a priori evaluating the willingness of the population to pay for different control programs of a new invasive bee species in Israel, the dwarf honey bee, Apis florea. We evaluated possible economic impacts of A. florea using two model plant species expected to be adversely affected by its invasion due to decreased pollination. The plants have no market value but they add aesthetic value to the open landscape. Using a mixed logit model we found that the mean willingness to pay (WTP) differed between the model plants, and increased with the extent of plant loss. Respondents differentiated between levels of damage to the plants and between control methods in their preferences for a specific program. Our results provide means for informed proactive decision making in preventing the continued invasion of the bee.     

The cost-effectiveness of somatropin treatment for short children born small for gestational age (SGA) and children with growth hormone deficiency (GHD) in Sweden

Abstract

Objective: Reduction in health-related quality of life is common in children born small for gestational age (SGA) or children with growth hormone deficiency (GHD). Growth hormone treatment with somatropin in these children leads to normalisation of height. The aim of this study was to determine whether somatropin is a cost-effective treatment option for short children born SGA and GHD children in Sweden.

Methods: A Markov decision-tree model was used to calculate the relative costs and health benefits associated with somatropin treatment over the lifetime of SGA and GHD children, compared with no treatment. The analysis was undertaken from a Swedish Health Service perspective. As quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) data were not obtained directly in the clinical studies, a degree of uncertainty is related to these results. Sensitivity analyses assessed the degree of uncertainty surrounding central parameters.

Results: For short children born SGA, somatropin treatment was associated with an additional 3.29 QALYs at an incremental cost of 792,489 SEK (Swedish Krona), compared with no treatment. For GHD, somatropin treatment resulted in 3.25 additional QALYs at an incremental cost of 391,291 SEK. This equates to an incremental cost per QALY of 240,831 SEK and 120,494 SEK for SGA and GHD, respectively, below a cost-effectiveness threshold of 500,000–600,000 SEK/QALY.

Conclusions: Somatropin is a cost-effective treatment strategy in Sweden for children with GHD and SGA. To overcome present study limitations future clinical research should incorporate appropriate quality of life questionnaires.     

Recreation demand estimation and valuation in spatially connected systems

Recreation demand models frequently are used to explain outdoor recreation behavior and to estimate willingness to pay for changes in environmental quality at recreation sites. Among the most commonly used recreation demand models are site choice models based on the multinomial logit framework, which account for the spatial relationships between each recreator's home and multiple alternative destinations thereby capturing the substitution possibilities among recreation sites. However, standard applications of this framework typically do not account for the possibility of spatial connections among the sites via movements of the target species, such as fish in connected water bodies in recreational angling applications or terrestrial species in hunting or wildlife viewing applications. In this paper we examine aspects of environmental valuation and natural resource dynamics that generally are addressed separately. Specifically, we show that in such spatially connected systems, a “reduced form” application of the standard site choice modeling approach, using proxy measures of environmental quality rather than direct measures of species abundances, can produce biased estimates of willingness to pay for environmental improvements. Furthermore, we show that under some conditions poorly targeted environmental improvements in spatially connected systems can lead to welfare decreases. In such systems a structural model of recreator site choices and species sorting behavior and population dynamics may be required to fully account for the spatial linkages among sites and the feedback effects between recreators and the target species.     

Cost-effectiveness of add-on treatments to metformin in a Swedish setting: liraglutide vs sulphonylurea or sitagplitin

Objective:

To evaluate long-run cost-effectiveness in a Swedish setting for liraglutide compared with sulphonylureas (glimepiride) or sitagliptin, all as add-on to metformin for patients with type 2 diabetes insufficiently controlled with metformin in monotherapy.

Methods:

The IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes was used to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes from a societal perspective. Model input data were obtained from two clinical trials, the Swedish National Diabetes Register and the literature. Cost data reflected year 2013 price level. The robustness of results was checked with one-way-sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis.

Results:

The cost per QALY gained for liraglutide (1.2?mg) compared to SU (glimepiride 4?mg), both as add-on to metformin, ranged from SEK 226,000 to SEK 255,000 in analyzed patient cohorts. The cost per QALY for liraglutide (1.2?mg) vs sitagliptin (100?mg) as second-line treatment was lower, ranging from SEK 149,000 to SEK 161,000. Costs of preventive treatment were driving costs, but there was also a cost offset from reduced costs of complications of ～20%. Notable cost differences were found for nephropathy, stroke, and heart failure. The predicted life expectancy with liraglutide increased the cost of net consumption for liraglutide.

Limitations:

The analysis was an ex-ante analysis using model input data from clinical trials which may not reflect effectiveness in real-world clinical practice in broader patient populations. This limitation was explored in the sensitivity analysis. The lack of specific data on loss of production due to diabetes complications implied that these costs may be under-estimated.

Conclusions:

Treatment strategies with liraglutide 1.2?mg improved the expected quality-of-life and increased costs when compared to SU and to sitagliptin for second-line add-on treatments. The cost per QALY for liraglutide was in the range considered medium by Swedish authorities.     

Do Fundamentals Explain the Behaviour of the Swedish Real Effective Exchange Rate?

This study examines the long‐run relationship between the real effective exchange rate and its fundamental determinants, and derives a real effective equilibrium exchange rate for the Swedish krona. Our results indicate that the krona was severely overvalued in late 1992, when the fixed exchange rate regime was abandoned. By the end of 2000 the krona was undervalued by approximately 5 percent, given the prevailing economic conditions. Arithmetic examples of suitable SEK/EUR conversion rates are calculated under various assumptions to provide a guideline if Sweden were to adopt the euro in the future.     

Using Choice Experiments to Value the Natura 2000 Nature Conservation Programs in Finland

This paper is concerned with the preferences of the Finnish households for a controversial nature conservation program – the European Union's Natura 2000 Network. Since the program was mainly based on biological considerations, it met strong public opinions from different interest groups in Finland. Using the choice experimental method, we attempt to estimate the values that the Finnish households would place on different preservation levels. It is found that the mean willingness to accept for a decrease in the nature preservation area is much greater than the mean willingness to pay for an increase by the same amount. Also, the marginal willingness to pay becomes zero after an initial increase in the natural preservation area, which is consistent with our earlier findings in a binary choice valuation study. Policy implications of these results are also discussed in relation to different decision criteria.