基于公平偏好的信息系统集成知识创新契约设计

基于公平心理客观上对协同主体决策过程的影响,引入F-S公平心理模型,构建了信息系统集成知识创新决策模型。得到结论:对于具有公平偏好心理的原系统服务商而言,其努力水平受嫉妒心理的影响,且随着嫉妒心理程度的提升而降低,道德风险随着努力水平的降低而增大;当原系统服务商付出最优努力水平时,它能有效规避道德风险。     

The informational effects of competition and collusion in legislative politics

We use a mechanism design approach to study the organization of interest groups in an informational model of lobbying. Interest groups influence the legislature only by communicating private information on their preferences and not by means of monetary transfers. Interest groups have private information on their ideal points in a one-dimensional policy space and may either compete or adopt more collusive behaviors. Optimal policies result from a trade-off between imposing rules which are non-responsive to the groups' preferences and flexibility that pleases groups better. Within a strong coalition, interest groups credibly share information which facilitates communication of their joint interests, helps screening by the legislature and induces flexible policies responsive to the groups' joint interests (an informativeness effect). Competing interest groups better transmit information on their individual preferences (a screening effect). The socially and privately optimal organization of lobbying favors competition between groups only when their preferences are not too congruent with those of the legislature. With more congruence, a strong coalition is preferred. Finally, within a weak coalition, interest groups must design incentive compatible collusive mechanisms to share information. Such weak coalitions are always inefficient.     

中国股市透明度提高对市场质量影响的实证分析

在股票市场的机制设计中,透明度即交易信息的披露程度是一个非常重要的方面。合理的透明度可以优化市场中相关信息的传递方式,并改善交易者的信息结构,有利于证券形成更加合理的价格,并进而提高市场的整体质量。2003年12月8日,中国股市信息披露规则发生变化,买卖盘揭示范围由3个最优报价扩大为5个,市场透明度显著提高。本文通过实证分析,较为全面地考察了透明度提高对深圳A股市场质量带来的影响。结果表明,透明度提高之后,市场的流动性明显上升,交易成本和市场波动性则显著下降,市场的信息传递效率也有所提高。这一切都表明,透明度的提高显著地改善了股票市场的整体质量。     

Optimal voting schemes with costly information acquisition

A group of individuals with identical preferences must make a decision under uncertainty about which decision is best. Before the decision is made, each agent can privately acquire a costly and imperfect signal. We discuss how to design a mechanism for eliciting and aggregating the collected information so as to maximize ex-ante social welfare.We first show that, of all mechanisms, a sequential one is optimal and works as follows. At random, one agent at a time is selected to acquire information and report the resulting signal. Agents are informed of neither their position in the sequence nor of other reports. Acquiring information when called upon and reporting truthfully is an equilibrium.We next characterize the ex-ante optimal scheme among all ex-post efficient mechanisms. In this mechanism, a decision is made when the precision of the posterior exceeds a cut-off that decreases with each additional report. The restriction to ex-post efficiency is shown to be without loss when the available signals are sufficiently imprecise. On the other hand, ex-post efficient mechanisms are shown to be suboptimal when the cost of information acquisition is sufficiently small.     

Real-time decentralized information processing and returns to scale

We use a model of real-time decentralized information processing to understand how constraints on human information processing affect the returns to scale of organizations. We identify three informational (dis)economies of scale: diversification of heterogeneous risks (positive), sharing of information and of costs (positive), and crowding out of recent information due to information processing delay (negative). Because decision rules are endogenous, delay does not inexorably lead to decreasing returns to scale. However, returns are more likely to be decreasing when computation constraints, rather than sampling costs, limit the information upon which decisions are conditioned. The results illustrate how information processing constraints together with the requirement of informational integration cause a breakdown of the replication arguments that have been used to establish nondecreasing technological returns to scale. November 24, 1999; revised version: March 14, 2000     

Optimal contract mechanisms for principal-agent problems with moral hazard and adverse selection

Summary We examine the problem of incentive compatibility and mechanism design for incomplete information principal-agent problems. Allowing for risk aversion on the part of the principal and agent, we show the existence of an optimal, incentive compatible contract selection mechanism for the principal under conditions of moral hazard and adverse selection. Since we assume that the contract set is a function space of state contingent contracts, and that the set of agent types is uncountable, the set of contract selection mechanisms becomes infinite dimensional. Hence, novel existence arguments are required. Our existence result extends those of Grossman and Hart [10] and Page [23] to an infinite dimensional setting with incomplete information.     

Allocation of resources in a team

The informational efficiency of “price” and “demand” messages in a resource allocation mechanism is studied here with the aid of the theory of teams¹. In the usual analysis of adjustment mechanisms (tâtonnement, decomposition), the adjustment process is assumed to run to completion, so that all the allocation and resource decisions can be made on the basis of enough information to guarantee optimal decisions². If, however, decisions must be made before the adjustment process is completed, say, after only a few iterations, then the decisions must be taken with limited information, and thus under conditions of uncertainty. This paper discusses a simple model in an attempt to examine explicitly these problems of uncertainty and limited information. A set of enterprise managers are assumed to produce various commodities, using scarce resources allocated to the enterprises by a resource manager. The enterprise managers also make decisions that affect their individual outputs. Varous kinds of communication among the managers, together with the corresponding information structures, are formulated, including the communication of price and demand messages. Optimal decision rules for the managers are calculated for the objective of maximizing the expected value of an index of total output. (It is assumed that the production functions and the supplies of scarce resources are stochastic, but are observed by the respective managers.) It is shown that optimal decision rules based on a single exchange of price and demand messages, between the resource manager on the one hand and the enterprise managers on the other, produces as good results as rules based on (1) complete information for the resource manager, and (2) information about the supplies of resources on the part of the enterprise managers. Furthermore, these price and demand messages produce approximately fully optimal results when the number of enterprises is large. However, the optimal decisions of the enterprise managers do not maximize profits, at least relative to any price that is the same for all enterprises. An assumption that the production functions are quadratic plays a key role.     

Social Conflict and Gradual Political Succession: An Illustrative Model*

This paper studies the evolution of political institutions in the face of conflict. We examine institutional reform in a class of pivotal mechanisms—institutions that behave as if the resulting policy were determined by a “pivotal” decision maker drawn from the potential population of citizens and who holds full policy‐making authority at the time. A rule‐of‐succession describes the process by which pivotal decision makers in period t + 1 are, themselves, chosen by pivotal decision makers in period t. Two sources of conflict—class conflict, arising from differences in wealth, and ideological conflict, arising from differences in preferences—are examined. In each case, we characterize the unique Markov‐perfect equilibrium of the associated dynamic political game, and show that public decision‐making authority evolves monotonically downward in wealth and upward in ideological predisposition toward the public good. We then examine rules‐of‐succession when ideology and wealth exhibit correlation.     

A MANDATE OF PRICE STABILITY FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

In recent years, the rules-versus-discretion debate over monetary policy has taken on new life. In the 1960s, this debate focused on the relative merits of nonactivist policies versus activist stabilization policies. When rational expectations arguments emerged in the 1970s, the debate broadened into three categories: activist policies characterized by rules, activist policies characterized by discretion, and nonactivist policies characterized by rules. This paper presents arguments for a particular example of the latter of these policies…specifically, a monetary policy which accords preeminence to achieving price-level stability. Central to these arguments is a comparison of this hypothetical policy with the actual monetary policy pursued by the Federal Reserve System, which is a type of activist policy characterized by discretion. The comparison suggests that actual monetary policy is more constrained than is generally realized. A rule mandating that the Federal Reserve accord preeminence to achieving price-level stability, then, should not be regarded as a policy which would significantly increase constraints on monetary policy. Instead, such a rule should be regarded as replacing implicit, poorly understood constraints with explicit constraints.     

To be consumed with moderation

We study the optimal behavior of a hyperbolic discounting agent who has incomplete information about his own preferences and can only learn them through consumption. We show that, even if moderate current consumption and moderate future consumption always dominates abstinence, the agent may optimally decide not to consume as a commitment device against inefficient learning that would lead to future excesses. This provides a rationale for why smokers, gamblers or compulsive buyers stick to second-best personal rules of behavior - such as “abstinence” - without invoking standard habit formation arguments. We also study how urges modify the strategy of the individual.     

Viewpoint: Empirical evidence and tax policy design: lessons from the Mirrlees Review

Abstract This paper examines the role of evidence in drawing up the recommendations for tax reform in the Mirrlees Review. The arguments are organised loosely under five related headings: (i) Key margins of adjustment. (ii) Measurement of effective tax rates. (iii) The importance of information and complexity. (iv) Evidence on the size of responses. (v) Implications from theory for tax design. Although the Mirrlees Review focuses on all aspects of tax reform, the focus is this paper is on the taxation of earnings with some examples drawn from the taxation of consumption and savings.     

PARETO EFFICIENCY AND WEIGHTED MAJORITY RULES

We consider the design of decision rules in an environment with two alternatives, independent private values and no monetary transfers. The utilitarian rule subject to incentive compatibility constraints is a weighted majority rule, where agents' weights correspond to expected gains given that their favorite alternative is chosen. It is shown that a rule is interim incentive efficient if and only if it is a weighted majority rule, and we characterize those weighted majority rules that are ex ante incentive efficient. We also discuss efficiency in the class of anonymous mechanisms and the stability of weighted majority rules.     

Decentralized decision-making in a large team with local information

We study a problem involving a team of agents each associated with a node in a chain. Each agent makes a decision that influences only his own cost and those of adjacent agents. Prior to making his decision, each agent observes only the cost structure associated with nodes that can be reached by traversing no more than r arcs. Decisions are selected without any coordination, with the common objective of minimizing average cost among agents. We consider such decisions decentralized since agents act based on different information. Cost incurred by an optimal centralized strategy, in which a single decision-maker has access to all information and dictates all decisions, is employed as a performance benchmark. We show that, to maintain a certain level of performance relative to optimal centralized strategies, decentralized deterministic strategies require r to be proportional to the number of agents. This means that the amount of information accessible to any agent should be proportional to the total number of agents. Stochastic strategies, on the other hand, decentralize more gracefully—the amount of information required by each agent is independent of the total number of agents.     

Information Provision in Procurement Auctions

We study the optimal provision of information in a procurement auction with horizontally differentiated goods. The buyer has private information about her preferred location on the product space and has access to a costless communication device. A seller who pays the entry cost may submit a bid comprising a location and a minimum price. We characterize the optimal information structure and show that the buyer prefers to attract only two bids. Further, additional sellers are inefficient since they reduce total and consumer surplus, gross of entry costs. We show that the buyer will not find it optimal to send public information to all sellers. On the other hand, she may profit from setting a minimum price and that a severe hold‐up problem arises if she lacks commitment to set up the rules of the auction ex ante.     

The Decentralization of Information Processing in the Presence of Interactions

We propose a model of organizational decision making, in which information processing is decentralized. Our model incorporates two features of many actual organizations: aggregation entails a loss of useful information, and the decision problems of different agents interact. We assume that an organization forms a portfolio of risky assets, following a hierarchical procedure. Agents' decision rules and the organization's hierarchical structure are derived endogenously. Typically, in the optimal hierarchical structure, all agents have one subordinate, and returns to ability are at least as high at the bottom as at the top. However, these results can be reversed in the presence of returns to specialization.     

Optimal Delegation

We analyse the design of decision rules by a principal who faces an informed but biased agent and who is unable to commit to contingent transfers. The contracting problem reduces to a delegation problem in which the principal commits to a set of decisions from which the agent chooses his preferred one. We characterize the optimal delegation set and perform comparative statics on the principal's willingness to delegate and the agent's discretion. We also provide conditions for interval delegation to be optimal and show that they are satisfied when the agent's preferences are sufficiently aligned. Finally, we apply our results to the regulation of a privately informed monopolist and to the design of legislatives rules.     

Reducing Inefficiency in Public Good Provision Through Linking

We characterize the optimal mechanism for the provision of n public goods in an economy with m agents, binary valuations. The mechanism “links” the n problems together because decisions and transfers are based on the whole vector of valuations of the agents. In particular, the decision on whether or not to provide a public good depends not only on the valuations of the agents for that good but, in some cases, also on the valuations for the other goods reported by the low‐valuation agents. For the two‐agent case, we show that the mechanism is asymptotically efficient and we provide an example that compares its relative efficiency with optimal separate provision and with another asymptotically efficient mechanism in the literature.     

Communication in bargaining over decision rights

This paper develops a model of bargaining over decision rights between an uninformed principal and an informed but self-interested agent. We introduce two different bargaining mechanisms: tacit and explicit bargaining. In tacit bargaining, an uninformed principal makes a take-it-or-leave-it price offer to the agent, who then decides whether to accept or reject the offer. In the equilibrium of the game, the principal inefficiently screens out some agent types so that the agent's private information cannot be fully utilized when the decision is made. In explicit bargaining in which parties can communicate explicitly via cheap talk before tacit bargaining, however, an equilibrium with no such inefficient screening exists even when the conflict of interest is arbitrarily large. We also follow a mechanism design approach, showing that under certain conditions, explicit bargaining is an optimal bargaining mechanism that maximizes the joint surplus of the parties.     

The macroeconomic effects of infrequent information with adjustment costs

We extend the macroeconomic literature on Ss -type rules by introducing infrequent information in a kinked adjustment-cost model. We first show that optimal individual decision rules are both state and time dependent. We then develop an aggregation framework to study the macroeconomic implications of such optimal individual decision rules. In our model, a vast number of agents act together, and more so when uncertainty is large. The average effect of an aggregate shock is inversely related to its size and to aggregate uncertainty. These results contrast with those obtained with full information adjustment cost models. JEL Classification: E0,E1,E2,E3
Les effets macroéconomiques de l'information infréquente quand il y a des coûts d'ajustement. Les auteurs étendent la portée de la littérature spécialisée sur les règles de type Ss en proposant des postulats d'information infréquente et de fonction de coûts d'ajustement pliée. On montre que les règles de décision optimales des individus dépendent à la fois de l'état de l'environnement et du moment. On développe alors un cadre d'agrégation pour étudier les impacts macroéconomiques de ces règles optimales de décision. Dans ce modèle, un grand nombre d'agents agissent de concert, et optimales ce d'autant plus que l'incertitude s'accroît. L'effet moyen d'un choc au niveau global est inversement reliéà son importance et au niveau d'incertitude agrégée. Ces résultats contredisent ceux qu'on obtient dans des modèles de coûts d'ajustement avec pleine information.