The influence of entrepreneur’s personal characteristics on MSEs growth through innovation

Research in the separate areas of innovation and growth has considerably intensified in recent years. However, little scholarly attention has been paid to the entrepreneurs’ personal characteristics that might explain the growth of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) through innovation. This study examines the key entrepreneurs’ personal characteristics affecting micro and small enterprises (MSEs) upgrading, defined here as substantial growth through innovation. Six major determining types of entrepreneurs’ characteristics were identified from the innovation and the growth literature: education, work experience, gender, motivations, nationality and age. The empirical results which are based on t-tests of the differences between upgraders and non-upgraders, the linear probability model and the logit model, all suggest that work experience and motivations are cornerstones in the likelihood that an MSE will upgrade. The policy implications of this study on promoting MSEs upgrading are also discussed.     

Informality and credit constraints: evidence from Sub-Saharan African MSEs

The attributes of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) influencing access to credit, in particular the level and role of firm informality, are analysed in the article. The puzzle is the push for MSEs to join the formal sector and the tug to avoid the extra burden it places on the firm. It is important to know more clearly what forces are at work and the sources of the causal effects. This study uses data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for five low-income countries (LICs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. The method is empirical and as we find informality to be endogenous to credit constraints, an instrumental variable approach is estimated. Further, to address the possibility of reverse causality, an instrument for the informality variable is required; not registered with Inland Revenue (tax office) is the chosen instrument variable. The findings reveal that as the probability of a firm operating in the formal sector increases, there is greater access to external credit. The causality relationships are tested providing a strong platform for the formalization of polices to reduce the informality of the MSE sector. These are discussed in the context of the research findings.     

基于扩展审计博弈的动态均值估计抽样方法

针对均值估计抽样方法的缺陷,以审计风险为中心,将扩展审计博弈与审计抽样相结合,提出了一种改进的均值估计抽样方法。该方法解决了审计风险计量、审计抽样的系统性决策问题,可帮助审计师在不确定条件下进行策略分析与选择,提高了均值估计抽样的可靠性和适用性。最后,用实例演示均值估计抽样过程以证实该方法的有效性。     

连续型抽样方案在企业内部审计中的适用性

随着生产管理方式的不断发展,人们对质量的要求越来越高,审计抽样技术基本停留在标准型抽样阶段,且不能做到实时监控,导致许多企业管理上的漏洞不能及时发现,造成不同程度的损失。将连续型抽样方案的特点和实施的具体要求,与企业内部审计的特征、职能相对比,发现连续型抽样方案在企业内部审计中的应用是具备可行性的。结合审计案例,对其原有内部审计工作进行对比,发现运用连续型抽样,不仅可以对企业的运营实现实时监控,而且在一定程度上降低了企业工作人员犯错的几率。对企业内部审计抽样理论进行了大胆的创新,将连续型抽样引入企业内部审计,对扩大连续型抽样的应用范围,提高企业内部审计人员的工作效率都起到了积极的作用。     

中小金融机构发展与中小企业融资

本文旨在探讨我国中小企业融资困难的根本原因并提出解决方法。文章首先分析了中小企业在我国现阶段经济发展中的重要性 ,指出我国劳动力相对丰富、资本相对稀缺的要素禀赋特色 ,使得劳动密集型中小企业在很长一段时间里会是我国企业组织中最有活力的构成部分。但是 ,在推行“赶超”战略的计划经济时期 ,为了支持不符合我国比较优势、不具自生能力的重工业的生存和发展 ,我国建立了以大银行为主的高度集中的金融体制。大型金融机构天生不适合为中小企业服务 ,这就不可避免地造成我国中小企业的融资困难。文章认为 ,不同的金融机构给不同规模的企业提供金融服务的成本和效率是不一样的。在综合考虑了各种因素之后 ,文章得出结论 ,大力发展和完善中小金融机构是解决我国中小企业融资难问题的根本出路。     

Moral hazard,adverse selection,and the optimal provision of social insurance

The single-period social insurance model of Diamond and Mirrlees is extended to allow for a diversity of types (in the probability of becoming disabled). When individual type is observable, the utilitarian optimum has both consumption when working and disability benefits increasing with the probability of disability. When type is not observable (adverse selection is present), the optimum is a single ‘pooling’ policy over a wide range of welfare weights which includes the utilitarian case. These results also provide insights into the potential distributional effects of moral hazard and the ways moral hazard and adverse selection problems may interact.     

Access to credit and informality among micro and small enterprises in Ethiopia

This paper examines the determinants of Micro and Small and Enterprises (MSEs) access to credit in Ethiopia using detailed firm‐level data collected in 2003. Its basic purpose is to identify the various attributes of a firm that determine its access to credit with an emphasis on the role of firm formality. We find that informal firms are more credit constrained compared to formal firms. A firm’s location, membership of a business association and maintaining an accounting record are found to be important determinants of access to credit. Further, we find firms whose owners have vocational training are more credit constrained than those who are not, as are firms that are exclusively male owned. There is no systematic relation between access to credit and a firm’s age, size and the sector in which it operates. The paper concludes with possible policy interventions designed to improve access to credit for MSEs in Ethiopia.     

Does drinking affect long-term sickness absence? A sample selection approach correcting for employment and accounting for drinking history

This article studies the effect of alcohol consumption on the probability of long-term sickness-related absenteeism for women. Using Swedish matched survey and register data, we apply sample selection models to correct for nonrandom sampling into paid employment. There are three main findings of the study. First, diverging from the most prevalent consumption group (long-term light drinkers) is associated with an increased probability of long-term sickness, ranging from 10% for long-term heavy drinkers to 18% for former drinkers. Second, controlling for former consumption errors (especially former drinker and former abstainer errors) and sample selection into employment are important for unbiased, consistent estimations. Third, by predicting the effect of changes in consumption on long-term sickness-related absence, we find that alcohol only explains a small part of the overall picture of long-term sickness-related absenteeism. Notwithstanding this fact, long-term sickness-related absenteeism due to alcohol adds up to substantial productivity loss for society. Our conclusion is that the commonly found U-shaped relationship between current alcohol consumption and labour market outcomes remains for women, after controlling for past consumption and selection effects. A change in consumption level increases probability of long-term sickness-related absence, compared to individuals with constant consumption levels.     

The Atkinson Inequality Measure and its Sampling Properties: Bayesian and Classical Approaches

This paper examines several Bayesian methods of obtaining posterior probability density functions of the Atkinson inequality measure and its associated social welfare function, in the context of grouped income distribution data. The methods are compared with asymptotic standard errors. The role of the number of income classes is investigated using a simulated distribution. If only a small number of groups is available in published data, there is a clear gain from generating the posterior probability density function when using an explicit income distribution assumption. Even with a small number of groups, the Bayesian approach gives results that are close to the sample values obtained using the corresponding individual observations.     

A hybrid selection model for emerging technology

Technology selection, which influences the advantages of an enterprise or a country, is a multi-criteria decision issue that can be improved by integrating different methods. In addition, it is more and more difficult to identify the right technologies because the technologies are increasing in number and complexity. This study proposes a technology selection process integrating fuzzy Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and patent co-citation approach (PCA) for technology selection. The former effectively gathers experts' judgments toward technology selection criteria and conducts the fuzziness existing in their responses. The analytic hierarchy process has the strength of identifying criteria and obtaining their relationship and their weights. The patent co-citation approach identifies the major R&D fields of a specific technology from patent data. Through this proposed process, the key technology fields can be identified in the end. The organic light emitting diode (OLED) technology in Taiwan is used to be an example to illustrate the proposed technology selection process.     

Microstructure Noise, Realized Variance, and Optimal Sampling

A recent and extensive literature has pioneered the summing of squared observed intra-daily returns, "realized variance", to estimate the daily integrated variance of financial asset prices, a traditional object of economic interest. We show that, in the presence of market microstructure noise, realized variance does not identify the daily integrated variance of the frictionless equilibrium price. However, we demonstrate that the noise-induced bias at very high sampling frequencies can be appropriately traded off with the variance reduction obtained by high-frequency sampling and derive a mean-squared-error (MSE) optimal sampling theory for the purpose of integrated variance estimation. We show how our theory naturally leads to an identification procedure, which allows us to recover the moments of the unobserved noise; this procedure may be useful in other applications. Finally, using the profits obtained by option traders on the basis of alternative variance forecasts as our economic metric, we find that explicit optimization of realized variance's finite sample MSE properties results in accurate forecasts and considerable economic gains.     

基于熵权法的知识链合作伙伴选择研究

讨论了知识链合作伙伴的选择问题。首先确定了选择的评价指标体系,然后将指标的重要性权重和熵权相结合得到指标的综合权重,在此基础上给出了综合评价方法,最后进行了实例分析。     

Is corruption a greater burden for registered MSEs? Evidence from Zambia

If corrupt bureaucrats target registered firms, then corruption may discourage registration. Using data from a survey of 4,801 micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in Zambia, this paper looks at whether corruption is a more or less serious problem for registered MSEs. Consistent with earlier studies, the results suggest registered MSEs are more concerned about corruption than unregistered firms are. The paper also proposes two reasons why corruption might affect registered MSEs differently than it affects unregistered firms. We first suggest that registered firms might meet with government officials more often than unregistered firms, giving corrupt officials more opportunities to demand bribes from them, but we also suggest that registered firms might be less vulnerable when officials demand bribes because they are more able to complain about bribe demands. This could offset registered firms' disadvantage because of more frequent meetings. The evidence supports the first, but not the second, hypothesis. Registered firms were more likely to meet with government officials but were not consistently less likely to pay bribes when they did meet with them.     

A longitudinal assessment on the economic effects of hosting major sporting events

Hosting major sporting events (MSEs) has become a globalized strategy for many countries. This paper is to incorporate event study and dynamic panel data analysis with annual secondary data to examine and clarify the long-term economic effects of host countries that had hosted the Asian Games and the Olympic Games from 1950 to 2014. The results indicate that hosting MSEs to create positive economic effects like the real economic growth rate, investment, employment and international trade may be a myth even for developing countries. The evidences can provide the sport management or authority with longitudinal and comprehensive elaboration for biding or hosting MSEs in the future.     

Use of Contingent Valuation to Elicit Willingness-to-Pay for the Benefits of Developmental Health Risk Reductions

We report the results of several contingent valuation (CV) surveys to elicit willingness-to-pay values from the general public for risk reductions associated with decreases in exposure to a chemical, PCBs, in the environment. We also develop Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) from the survey using both standard gamble and time-tradeoff elicitation methods to explore the relationship between QALYs and willingness-to-pay (WTP), and to develop QALY weights for subtle developmental effects. The results of the CV surveys are designed for incorporation into a case study of an integrated risk model to monetize the benefits of predicted risk reductions. Respondents showed a nearly proportional, positive relationship between decreasing the risk of a 6-point reduction in IQ (a standard measure of “intelligence”) and WTP, but showed a negative relationship between risk reduction and WTP for reading comprehension as an outcome. The range of mortality risks that respondents would accept on behalf of their (hypothetical) 10-year-old child is 2 in 10,000 to 9 in 1,000 per IQ point, and WTP per IQ point is $466 ($380, $520). QALY weights elicited via time tradeoff (reduction in life expectancy) were significantly different from QALY weights elicited via a standard gamble (p = 0.001). Respondents who answered questions about ecological endpoints first were willing to pay a small additional amount when asked about human health effects, but those respondents who answered questions about human health endpoints first were not willing to pay any additional amount when subsequently asked about ecological effects. This paper has not been submitted elsewhere in identical or similar form, nor will it be during the first three months after its submission to the Publisher.     

Confounded,augmented and constrained replicator dynamics

The quantitative methodology derived from replicator dynamics for empirical studies of economic evolution is becoming increasingly well developed in theory but is rarely applied in practice. One reason is the relatively naïve nature of current methods, which focus on the evolution of a single characteristic in a single environment. This assumption constrains the analysis of real selection processes in which firms operate in several markets and their products have several characteristics that interact to determine fitness. This entails that measurement of economic selection becomes confounded: characteristics that are associated with firm growth are not becoming more frequent in the population. The reason for confounded selection is that characteristics interact to augment or constrain the rate and direction of evolution and one-dimensional, single trait replicator dynamics cannot cope with confounded selection. The contribution of this paper is to develop an approach that serves to explicitly analyse confounded selection. The primary elements of the method are the selection gradients of the characteristics and the covariance matrix of the characteristics. Based on these, the method motivates a taxonomy of selection based on the interaction of characteristics. Applying the method to a population of firms will shed light on potentially confounded selection. It will reveal the indirect effects of characteristics on selection and the augmentation and constraints created thereby.     

Judgment change during Delphi-like procedures: The role of majority influence, expertise, and confidence

This study investigates individual opinion change and judgmental accuracy in Delphi-like groups. Results reveal that the accuracy of judgmental probability forecasts increases over Delphi rounds (in terms of proportion correct and appropriateness of confidence) when statistical summaries or written rationales are provided from other members of an individual's nominal group, but does not increase in a control iteration condition (without feedback). Additionally, subjects who gave more appropriate probability forecasts on the first round exhibited least opinion change, although measures of confidence were unrelated to opinion change. Results also show that majority opinion exerts strong opinion pull on minority opinion even when the majority favours an incorrect answer (irrespective of the nature of feedback provided). The implications of these results for the utility and conduct of the Delphi technique are discussed, in particular, with respect to selecting panellists and choosing an appropriate feedback format.     

邻近性与自主合作创新网络演进:以集成电路产业链为例

随着科学的发展及与知识的融合,越来越多的创新通过多个组织合作完成,但现有研究对于合作创新机理仍缺乏共识。从社会网络视角出发,通过引入邻近性概念构建合作创新解释框架,然后基于中国1985-2015年集成电路领域的500 945条专利的全样本数据,通过QAP多元回归分析发现:地理邻近、知识积累邻近、知识结构邻近与创新环境邻近共同影响合作伙伴选择,且随着时间推移与产业发展,地理邻近的重要程度逐渐降低,知识结构邻近的影响呈现U型变化,知识积累邻近和创新环境邻近在产业进入成熟阶段后开始正向影响合作创新伙伴选择,表明合作创新网络内已经出现一定程度的阶层固化现象。     

Pensions reforms,workforce ageing and firm-provided welfare

This paper investigates the impact of an exogenous increase in the legal retirement age on the firms’ propensity to provide welfare services voluntarily to their employees. To this purpose we exploit a unique information derived from the Rilevazione su Imprese e Lavoro (RIL), a survey conducted in 2015 on a large and representative sample of Italian firms. Applying different regression models we show that firms which were forced to give up previously planned hirings because of the Law 201/2011 (the so-called ‘Fornero pension reform’), increased the probability of providing welfare services at workplace. By referring to the sociological, human resource management and economic literature we then argue that a sudden increase in the legal retirement age may motivate the employers to establish welfare schemes as a way to cope with an ageing workforce. Our findings also hold when propensity score matching methods are used in order to control for sample selection issues.