The Impact of Lifecycle Events on Women's Labour Force Transitions: A Panel Analysis*

This panel study explores the impact of different lifecycle events on women's labour force transitions. We explicitly investigate whether the factors that determine entry into the labour force differ from the factors that determine withdrawal from the labour force. The results demonstrate that labour force transitions – entry and withdrawal – occur more frequently among young women. The event of childbirth is strongly associated with labour force withdrawal, while marital separation and reductions in family earnings are strongly associated with labour force entry. Moreover, labour force transition probabilities are more sensitive to income‐reducing events than to income‐supplementing events.     

The optimality and overuse of labour in Estonian manufacturing enterprises*

Transition economies need labour market flexibility for successful restructuring and reallocation of the labour force, and for coping with the requirements of the European Monetary Union. In this paper we apply a novel approach to the issue of labour market flexibility in transition countries by studying the optimality and efficiency of labour usage in Estonian manufacturing enterprises. We employ a dynamic model in which both the long‐run optimal level of employment and the speed at which actual employment is adjusted to the optimal are modelled as functions of several variables. Firm‐level panel data of 1995–99 were used. The results showed that in the long run, employment responds most strongly to wages, followed by value added and capital stock. The speed of adjustment, labour use optimality and efficiency all show much greater variations over firms than over time. In the course of time, both labour‐saving technical change and an increase in the efficiency of labour usage occur. On average, there is shortage of labour compared to firms’ own optimal level, along with overuse of labour compared to best‐practice technology. Capital seems to be a binding constraint on the development of employment in the Estonian labour market.     

Income splitting, specialization, and intra-family distribution

Abstract Income splitting for tax purposes results in more specialization of wives, but does this in turn generate more gender inequality? In my dynamic bargaining model with a divorce threatpoint, I find that who controls the couple's labour supply plays a crucial role in establishing this link. If spouses choose their labour supply non‐cooperatively, only the husband's increase – but not her own decrease – in labour supply introduces a negative term in the wife's change in welfare. If the wife does not control her own labour supply, a decrease in her own labour supply introduces an additional negative term.     

Firm ownership and internal labour practices in a transition economy

One feature common to many post‐socialist transition economies is a relatively compressed wage structure in the state‐owned sector. We conjecture that this compressed wage structure creates weak incentives for work effort and worker skill acquisition and thus presents adverse consequences for the entire transition economy if a substantial portion of the labour force works in the state sector. We explore firm wage incentives and worker training, as well as other labour practices and outcomes, in a transition setting with matched firm and worker data collected in one of the largest provinces of Vietnam – Ho Chi Minh City. The Vietnamese state sector exhibits a compressed wage distribution in relation to privately owned firms with foreign ownership. State wage practices stress tenure over worker productivity and their wage policies result in flatter wage–experience profiles and lower returns to education. The state work force is in greater need of formal training, a need that is in part met through direct government financing. In spite of the opportunities for government financed training and at least partly due to inefficient worker incentives, state firms, by certain measures, exhibit lower levels of labour productivity. The private sector comparison group to state firms for all of these findings is foreign owned firms. The internal labour practices of foreign firms are more consistent with a view of profit‐maximizing firms operating with no political constraints. This is not the case for Vietnamese de novo private firms that exhibit much more idiosyncratic behaviour and whose labour practices are often indistinguishable from state firms. The exact reasons for this remain a topic of on‐going research yet we conjecture that various private sector constraints, including limited access to formal capital, play an important role.     

The role of social capital in the labour market in China1

Social capital is considered to play an economic role in labour markets. It may be particularly pertinent in one that is in transition from an administered to a market‐oriented system. One factor that may determine success in the underdeveloped Chinese labour market is thus guanxi, the Chinese variant of social capital. With individual‐level measures of social capital, we test for the role of guanxi using a dataset designed for this purpose, covering 7,500 urban workers and conducted in early 2000. The evidence is consistent with the basic hypothesis. Both measures of social capital – size of social network and Communist Party membership – have significant and substantial coefficients in the income functions. Social capital can have influence either in an administered system or in one subject to market forces. It appears to do so in both parts of the labour market.     

PRECAUTIONARY DEMAND FOR LABOUR AND FIRM SIZE

This paper studies firms' job creation decisions in a labour market with search frictions. A simple labour market search model is developed in which a firm can search for a second employee while producing with a first worker, and this creates the equilibrium size distribution of firms. A firm expands employment even if the instantaneous payoff to a large firm is less than that of staying small – a firm has a precautionary motive to expand its size. In addition, this motive is enhanced by a greater market tightness. Because of this effect, firms’ decisions become interdependent – a firm creates a vacancy if it expects other firms to do the same, creating strategic complementarity among firms and thereby self‐fulfilling multiple equilibria. An increase in productivity can cause a qualitative change in labour market tightness and the rate of unemployment.     

Land use rights,market transitions,and labour policy change in China (1980–84)

This paper provides a systematic analysis of the way shifts in property utilization rights in China induced another sequence of institutional changes that led to the rise of rural–urban labour migration from 1980 to 1984, a critical period in the country’s market transition. The paper shows that the 1980s’ Household Responsibility System (HRS), which brought family farming back from the communal system, endowed rural households not only with land use rights, but also with de facto labour allocation rights. These shifts in property relations promoted a growth in agricultural market size as well as the emergence of intraprovincial non‐hukou rural–urban migration, which may have made labour retention policies such as the small township strategy ineffective, and may have given the government an incentive to deregulate its subsequent labour market policy.     

Women's employment,children and transitionAn empirical analysis for Poland1

This article empirically investigates how the transition to a market economy affected the relationship between motherhood and labour force outcomes in Poland. We estimate different probit models on two panel datasets covering a three‐year period before the reform (1987–1989) and a three‐year period afterwards (1994–1996). Contrary to a priori expectations, our findings indicate that during transition young children were much less of a deterrent to the employment probability of their mother than they were before transition.     

The Displacement Effect of Labour‐Market Programs: MONASH Analysis*

A key question concerning labour‐market programs is the extent to which they generate jobs for their target group at the expense of others. This effect is measured by displacement percentages. We describe a version of the MONASH model designed to quantify the effects of labour‐market programs. Our simulation results suggest that: (i) labour‐market programs can generate significant long‐run increases in employment; (ii) displacement percentages depend on how a labour‐market program affects the income trade‐off faced by target and non‐target groups between work and non‐work; and (iii) displacement percentages are larger in the short run than in the long run.     

NON-WAGE LABOUR COSTS, POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND LABOUR DEMAND – A THEORETICAL ASSESSMENT

Labour costs in various European countries have reached a record high in recent years. The topic of non‐wage labour costs is therefore increasingly being discussed among and between the political parties because non‐wage labour costs are likely to have major negative effects on employment. We follow the real options approach, which allows us to investigate the value to a firm of waiting to adjust labour when the firm's wage and non‐wage costs are stochastic and adjustment costs are sunk. Simulation exercises show that the interaction between hiring and firing costs, non‐wage labour costs and uncertainty can have important ramifications for employment dynamics.     

INTER‐TEMPORAL LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION AMONG MARRIED WOMEN IN JAPAN*

This paper investigates the components that affect inter‐temporal labour force participation among married women in Japan. We estimate linear probability models and simple, dynamic probit models with a variety of specifications. We find that serially correlated transitory errors have a significant effect on the participation behaviour of married women, while the first‐order lagged dependent variable has no significant effect. The result that serially correlated transitory errors influence married women's inter‐temporal labour force participation suggests that exogenous rather than endogenous causes have a significant effect on long‐term economic disparity among married women.     

Job creation,job destruction,labour mobility and wages in Poland, 1988–19981

Longitudinal data from interviews with Poles of working age conducted in 1988, 1993 and 1998 combined with longitudinal firm‐level data present a detailed view of the transition from a state‐dominated to a market economy. Job losses in state firms and job creation in new private firms are the dominant employment changes, other than retirements from the labour force. In the Polish case, a significant proportion of this movement over the 1988–1998 period involves a spell of unemployment or exit from the labour force before obtaining a private sector job. This results in considerable job competition between workers leaving the state sector and those who are out of the labour force or unemployed. Income differences between the state sector and the de novo sector appear to have little association with mobility. These results suggest that movement to the new private sector is more likely to be the result of job loss than the result of people looking for better, higher paying jobs. Self‐employment plays an important role in the development of the private sector. People working on their own account have higher incomes than wageworkers and are likely to become owners employing additional workers. Incomes are higher in regions with high rates of job creation and depressed in regions with job destruction.     

Spillovers of Equal Treatment in Wage Offers

We analyse a labour‐matching model with wage posting, where – reflecting institutional constraints – firms cannot differentiate their wage offers within certain subsets of workers. Inter alia, we find that the presence of impersonal wage offers leads to wage compression, which propagates to the wages for high productivity workers who receive personalized offers.     

Employment Status Persistence in the Japanese Labour Market

The growth of non‐standard employment has become a cause for concern for policy‐makers trying to boost output and keep unemployment low while also maintaining job security. This paper estimates a dynamic unobserved effects model using the Keio Household Panel Survey, an individual‐level panel data set, to investigate the effects on future employment opportunities of employment in Japan's non‐standard employment and regular employment sectors. I find strong evidence of persistence within the labour market, suggesting that past employment experience has a significant impact on future labour market outcomes.     

The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data

Abstract In this paper we propose a straightforward method to derive a non‐inflationary rate of capacity utilization (NIRCU) based on micro data. We condition the current capacity utilization of firms on their current and planned price adjustments. The non‐inflationary capacity utilization rate is then defined as the rate where a firm feels no price adjustment pressure. One of the main advantages is that this methodology uses structural aspects and does not make it necessary to operate with – often rather arbitrary – statistical filters. We show that our aggregate NIRCU performs remarkably well as an indicator of inflationary pressure in a Phillips curve estimation.     

Labour quality and aggregate real-wage dynamics

The real wage plays an important role in many aggregate econometrics studies of the labour market. However, average wages, like any other average quantity, can change for two reasons – either through an underlying movement in the earnings potential of a unit of labour of given quality or, alternatively, through compositional changes which alter the relative proportions of different types of labour within the employed labour force. Using data from the General Household Survey to estimate earnings functions, the paper seeks to examine the contribution of these two factors for Britain from 1979 to 1989. It is shown that in periods of rising unemployment compositional changes can have a bigger effect on real-earnings growth than any underlying change in reward to labour of give quality. This raises the question of what economists actually are measuring when considering the behaviour of the aggregate real wage.     

Uncertainty and Investment: Evidence from Australian Firm Panel Data

This paper investigates the key drivers of fixed firm investment of listed non‐financial companies in Australia over the period from 1987 to 2009. A Tobin's q model of investment is augmented to account for the effect of economic uncertainty on the investment decision. The effects of Tobin's q, sales and cash flows on firm investment rate are also analysed and discussed. Consistent with existing literature, this research finds clear evidence of negative effects of both macroeconomic and firm idiosyncratic uncertainty on Australian firm investment. However, evidence also shows that firm‐specific uncertainty is more important in explaining firm investment than macroeconomic uncertainty.     

HYSTERESIS HYPOTHESIS IN UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES: EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIAN STATES AND TERRITORIES *

This article simultaneously investigates the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment and labour force participation using regional level data in Australia. The conventional univariate and panel unit root tests indicate that the hysteresis hypothesis cannot be rejected for most of the regions in Australia. To further confirm if the hysteresis finding in unemployment and labour force participation results from not considering structural breaks. We employ a panel stationarity test recently developed by Carrion‐i‐Silvestre et al. (2005 ), which considers multiple structural breaks and cross‐sectional dependence. The test results lend support for unemployment hysteresis and participation regime‐wise stationarity. Accordingly, the findings imply that a temporary shock may have permanent effects on the unemployment rate but not on labour force participation in Australia and thus call for policies aimed at improving the adjustment mechanism in unemployment.     

How does the marriage market clear? An empirical framework

Abstract. The paper surveys the Choo and Siow (2006a; CS) marriage matching model and its extensions. CS derives a behavioural marriage‐matching function. The collective model of intra‐household allocations can be integrated into this framework. Spousal labour supplies respond to changing marriage market conditions. Marriage market tightness, the ratio of unmarried type i men to unmarried type j women is a sufficient statistic for marriage market conditions for those types of individuals. The hypothesis that spousal labour supplies vary to equilibrate the marriage market has overidentifying restrictions. The framework extends to a dynamic marriage‐matching environment. Empirically, this paper shows how the famine caused by the great leap forward in Sichuan affected the marital behaviour of famine‐born cohorts. Marriage market tightness is shown to be a useful statistic for summarizing marriage market conditions in the United States. Marriage market conditions in the contemporary United States primarily affect spousal labour force participation rather than hours of work.     

UNEMPLOYMENT POLICIES IN AN ECONOMY WITH ADVERSE SELECTION

This paper studies the effects of unemployment policies in a simple static general equilibrium model with adverse selection in the labour market. Firms offer a contract that induces the self‐selection of workers. In equilibrium, all unskilled workers are screened out and some skilled workers are rationed out. It is shown that the provision of unemployment insurance raises involuntary unemployment by encouraging adverse selection, while unemployment assistance – or subsidy to unemployment – reduces involuntary unemployment. A simple efficiency wage model is also presented to show that either of the two policies reduces employment by taxing effort and subsidizing shirking. The key is whether the social role of unemployment is a sorting device or a worker discipline device.