Encouraging Best Practice in Quantitative Management Research: An Incomplete List of Opportunities*

abstract The paper identifies some common problems encountered in quantitative methodology and provides information on current best practice to resolve these problems. We first discuss issues pertaining to variable measurement and concerns regarding the underlying relationships among variables. We then highlight several advances in estimation methodology that may circumvent issues encountered in common practice. Finally, we discuss approaches that move beyond existing research designs, including the development and use of datasets that embody linkages across levels of analysis, or combine qualitative and quantitative methods.     

Organizational De‐development*

ABSTRACT Organizational decline prompts leaders to downsize, reducing the size of the workforce in an attempt to cut costs. This paper discusses some of the dangers of downsizing in which organizations experience an unanticipated and unwanted loss of core competencies. An alternative to downsizing is offered, showing how organizations can ‘de‐develop’ by slowly and deliberately moving to a lower order of organized complexity, retaining essential core competencies and supporting functions. To produce a ‘soft‐landing’ that preserves core competencies, a new identity is forged and connections to the new identity are uncovered. The connections point out what must be preserved, such as a crucial channel for key products, for the new identity to survive and flourish. The de‐developed organization preserves customers, products, markets, channels, revenue sources, alliances, skilled people, ways to organize, and/or image crucial to the new strategic identity before letting go of the remaining customers, products, etc. The paper identifies conditions under which de‐development can be desirable and suggests a ‘devolutionary’ process that points out some of the key moves needed to reduce organized complexity and realize a soft landing.     

Pricing‐to‐Market and Market Structure*

Stimulated by imperfect competition/sticky prices framework of the new open economy macroeconomics, empirical research has reconsidered the role of exchange rates in international adjustment. This paper reassesses the link between exchange rates and traded good prices by estimating pricing‐to‐market equations for the five main euro area countries over the period 1990–99. We minimize selection biases by keeping all manufacturing products and all destination markets and show that exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT) is much larger, almost complete, than previously estimated. Thanks to a huge variability in terms of exchange rate variations, products and destination markets, we can map differences in ERPT into market structures and, at the same time, reconcile our results with the empirical literature. We find that ERPT is highly incomplete for sales by oligopolistic industries into advanced economies, indeed in the order of 50–60% as previously estimated. ERPT is instead almost complete in emerging and developing economies where therefore exchange rate movements can help adjust external imbalances. We also find that ERPT is largely asymmetric: it is almost complete after an appreciation of the exporter's currency, rather incomplete after a depreciation. This result is very robust across specifications.     

Encouraging Enterprise—The Belgian Experience

Nigel Lawson will meet with failure in adopting Sir Geoffrey Howe's plans for enterprise zones in Britain unless he learns from the mistakes of the Belgian E-Zones. Michael van Notten, who was instrumental in the implementation of the Belgian plan, outlines the political obstacles raised in the path of the E-Zones by empire-building bureaucrats.     

Co‐evolution in an Institutionalized Environment*

abstract This paper examines the extent to which co‐evolution can take place within a heavily constrained environment and how changes in the degree of institutionalization are relevant to opportunities for exercising strategic choice at the level of the firm. It addresses these questions through a detailed case study of a major Brazilian telecommunications company, Telemig, covering its life span of 27 years from 1973 to 2000. The insights obtained advance the theory of co‐evolution by incorporating a political dimension of how organizations are transformed into new forms. In the case studied, new forms arose with radical changes in the rules affecting competition and with de‐institutionalization of the economic regime by coalitions of actors who were strategically located in networks that crossed system levels. Although the Telemig case presents circumstances different to those usually addressed by studies of co‐evolution, it nevertheless points to the virtues of combining a strategic choice approach with one that focuses on the isomorphic effects of institutional constraints.     

Non‐Classical Measurement Error in Long‐Term Retrospective Recall Surveys*

Applied microeconomic researchers are beginning to use long‐term retrospective survey data in settings where conventional longitudinal survey data are unavailable. However, inaccurate long‐term recall could induce non‐classical measurement error, for which conventional statistical corrections are less effective. In this article, we use the unique Panel Study of Income Dynamics Validation Study to assess the accuracy of long‐term retrospective recall data. We find underreporting of transitory variation which creates a non‐classical measurement error problem.     

春兰科研国际争锋

春兰集团是多元化经营的国际化企业集团,现有主导产品涵盖家电、自行车、机械、电子信息四大产业,共有18个系列100多种产品.经过十多年的开拓,从一个净资产和利润均为负数、工业总产值仅1000万元的小型地方企业,发展成为总营业额180亿人民币、总资产120亿、利税15亿的大集团,整体经济收益连续多年位居中国日用电器行业之首.     

Entrepreneurship and Post‐socialist Growth*

We use a rich regional data set to obtain a statistical characterization of the relationship between entrepreneurial activity and economic growth within post‐Soviet Russia. Russia is a useful laboratory for evaluating links between entrepreneurial activity and growth because of the striking variation in initial conditions, the adoption of policy reforms, and entrepreneurial activity observed across its large number of regions in the early stages of transition. Russia has also experienced striking regional variation in subsequent growth. Conditional on variations in initial conditions and policy reform measures, regional entrepreneurial activity exhibits a statistically and quantitatively significant relationship with subsequent economic growth.     

Tax Discounting in a High‐debt Economy*

This paper estimates a consumption function for Belgium that allows for government debt discounting and for the overall discounting of the future (reflecting the consumers’ planning horizon or precautionary savings). It also allows for substitutability or complementarity effects from government expenditures. Results suggest that consumers do take into account (future) government activity. Ricardian Equivalence is rejected however, since we cannot reject a relatively short planning horizon or a precautionary savings motive for the consumers. We use bootstrapped distributions for inference since the instrumental variables estimators used may have non‐standard distributions. This procedure also helps to tackle potential endogeneity and sample size problems.     

Pro‐competitive Effect of Trade and Non‐decreasing Price‐Cost Margins*

This study surveys the empirical evidence on the pro‐competitive effect of international trade and analyses the determinants of price‐cost margins for OECD countries between 1970 and 2003. The main objective was to focus on the quantification of the impact of imports on margins, and understand why, despite trade liberalization, price‐cost margins have not fallen overall. On average, imports would have contributed to a large decrease of five percentage points in the price‐cost margins. However, these effects seem to have been partially counterbalanced by the impacts of financial deepening and disinflation.     

Equity‐Liabilities Distinction: The case for Co‐operatives*

Members' shares in co‐operative entities are financial instruments with particular characteristics. In this paper we analyse the relation between firm leverage and systematic risk to provide empirical evidence on the economic substance of the member shares of members of cooperatives. We have studied the characteristics of members' shares in six European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and United Kingdom. We have also conducted tests on co‐operatives of these countries over the period 1993–2005. The study reports that in global terms the economic substance of the redeemable part of equity in co‐operatives is not the same across countries. Therefore if accounting standards setters want to develop a global standard for co‐operatives, a recommendation derived from this study would be to follow a probabilistic model to classify the redeemable part of co‐operative financial instruments, where the entity does not have the unconditional right to refuse the redemption, or to report this part as an intermediate item with characteristics of debt and equity.     

Post‐Acquisition Restructuring as Evolutionary Process*

ABSTRACT The transformation and integration of acquired businesses is subject to tensions between implementing radical change to match the strategy and corporate culture of the acquirer, and promoting what is valuable in resources and cultural attributes in the acquired organization. Analysts’ disagreement arises from different conceptualizations of the nature of resources. We present an evolutionary perspective that demonstrates not only the merits of competitive selection, but of local adaptation of transferred resources and of stimulating the development of local ones. Evidence from 18 original case studies in Hungary and East Germany shows that a defensive focus on short‐term efficiency, i.e. downsizing, may fail to realize the long‐term potential of the organization. Acquirers supporting an evolutionary development of their new subsidiary by providing autonomy and complementary resources might well have to tolerate some slack in the short run, but may realize more of the potential contributions of the acquired assets in the long run.     

Truth and Robustness in Cross‐country Growth Regressions*

We re‐examine studies of cross‐country growth regressions by Levine and Renelt (American Economic Review, Vol. 82, 1992, pp. 942–963) and Sala‐i‐Martin (American Economic Review, Vol. 87, 1997a, pp. 178–183; Economics Department, Columbia, University, 1997b). In a realistic Monte Carlo experiment, their variants of Edward Leamer's extreme‐bounds analysis are compared with a cross‐sectional version of the general‐to‐specific search methodology associated with the LSE approach to econometrics. Levine and Renelt's method has low size and low power, while Sala‐i‐Martin's method has high size and high power. The general‐to‐specific methodology is shown to have a near nominal size and high power. Sala‐i‐Martin's method and the general‐to‐specific method are then applied to the actual data from Sala‐i‐Martin's original study.     

GMM Estimation with Non‐causal Instruments*

This note provides a warning against careless use of the generalized method of moments (GMM) with time series data. We show that if time series follow non‐causal autoregressive processes, their lags are not valid instruments, and the GMM estimator is inconsistent. Moreover, endogeneity of the instruments may not be revealed by the J‐test of overidentifying restrictions that may be inconsistent and has, in general, low finite‐sample power. Our explicit results pertain to a simple linear regression, but they can easily be generalized. Our empirical results indicate that non‐causality is quite common among economic variables, making these problems highly relevant.     

Modelling Regime‐Specific Stock Price Volatility*

Single‐state generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models identify only one mechanism governing the response of volatility to market shocks, and the conditional higher moments are constant, unless modelled explicitly. So they neither capture state‐dependent behaviour of volatility nor explain why the equity index skew persists into long‐dated options. Markov switching (MS) GARCH models specify several volatility states with endogenous conditional skewness and kurtosis; of these the simplest to estimate is normal mixture (NM) GARCH, which has constant state probabilities. We introduce a state‐dependent leverage effect to NM‐GARCH and thereby explain the observed characteristics of equity index returns and implied volatility skews, without resorting to time‐varying volatility risk premia. An empirical study on European equity indices identifies two‐state asymmetric NM‐GARCH as the best fit of the 15 models considered. During stable markets volatility behaviour is broadly similar across all indices, but the crash probability and the behaviour of returns and volatility during a crash depends on the index. The volatility mean‐reversion and leverage effects during crash markets are quite different from those in the stable regime.     

Bayesian Estimation of Willingness‐to‐pay Where Respondents Mis‐report Their Preferences*

We introduce a modified conditional logit model that takes account of uncertainty associated with mis‐reporting in revealed preference experiments estimating willingness‐to‐pay (WTP). Like Hausman et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1988) Vol. 87, pp. 239–269], our model captures the extent and direction of uncertainty by respondents. Using a Bayesian methodology, we apply our model to a choice modelling (CM) data set examining UK consumer preferences for non‐pesticide food. We compare the results of our model with the Hausman model. WTP estimates are produced for different groups of consumers and we find that modified estimates of WTP, that take account of mis‐reporting, are substantially revised downwards. We find a significant proportion of respondents mis‐reporting in favour of the non‐pesticide option. Finally, with this data set, Bayes factors suggest that our model is preferred to the Hausman model.     

General‐to‐Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions*

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper, we propose general‐to‐specific (Gets) model selection procedures to overcome these limitations. It is shown that single‐equation procedures are generally efficient for the reduction of recursive SVAR models. The small‐sample properties of the proposed reduction procedure (as implemented using PcGets) are evaluated in a realistic Monte Carlo experiment. The impulse responses generated by the selected SVAR are found to be more precise and accurate than those of the unrestricted VAR. The proposed reduction strategy is then applied to the US monetary system considered by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, pp. 16–34, 1996) . The results are consistent with the Monte Carlo and question the validity of the impulse responses generated by the full system.     

Regression‐based Tests for a Change in Persistence*

We show that the minimal forward (reverse) recursive unit tests of Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock [Journal of Business and Economics Statistics (1992) Vol. 10, pp. 271–288] are consistent against the alternative of a change in persistence from I(0) to I(1) [I(1) to I(0)]. However, these statistics are also shown to diverge for series which are I(0) throughout. Consequently, a rejection by these tests does not necessarily imply a change in persistence. We propose a further test, based on the ratio of these statistics, which is consistent against changes either from I(0) to I(1), or vice versa, yet does not over‐reject against constant I(0) series. Consistent breakpoint estimators are proposed.     

Testing Stationarity in Small‐ and Medium‐Sized Samples when Disturbances are Serially Correlated*

In this article, we study the size distortions of the KPSS test for stationarity when serial correlation is present and samples are small‐ and medium‐sized. It is argued that two distinct sources of the size distortions can be identified. The first source is the finite‐sample distribution of the long‐run variance estimator used in the KPSS test, while the second source of the size distortions is the serial correlation not captured by the long‐run variance estimator because of a too narrow choice of truncation lag parameter. When the relative importance of the two sources is studied, it is found that the size of the KPSS test can be reasonably well controlled if the finite‐sample distribution of the KPSS test statistic, conditional on the time‐series dimension and the truncation lag parameter, is used. Hence, finite‐sample critical values, which can be applied to reduce the size distortions of the KPSS test, are supplied. When the power of the test is studied, it is found that the price paid for the increased size control is a lower raw power against a non‐stationary alternative hypothesis.