Imperial Self-Insufficiency Rediscovered: Britain and Australia 1945–51

This paper addresses the unresolved debate about the timing of economic disengagement between Australia and Great Britain. During Chifley's administration international economic collaboration between Australia and Britain was close, Australia tending to identify its interests with those of the UK and the sterling area. Yet collaboration never stretched to acceptance by Australia of traditional forms of manufacturer–primary producer complementarity; this played no part in Canberra's postwar planning and priority given to industrialization led to the relative neglect of rural industries, which, together with the rapidly growing demands of its own population, reduced export surpluses and contributed to Australia's poor record as a food supplier. Buoyant export prices, especially for wool, combined with capital inflows from the UK to stimulate import demands. Because of dollar shortages most of these had to be sourced from Britain. From 1948 the UK not only expanded exports dramatically but was a major source of migrants and capital. Yet British industrial capacity in particular proved unequal to the task of meeting Australian needs. Imperial self-insufficiency again stood revealed, encouraging Menzies to look beyond the sterling area to support Australia's rapid development.     

Remittances,Monetary Policy,and Partial Sterilization

Remittances play a large and important role in certain economies, where they became a significant share of GDP. Official government records of these flows have been systematically improved since governments realized their importance, but a significant percentage of remittances remain unrecorded. This, together with the shadow economy, may pose a problem for monetary policy. This article uses a limited participation model to examine the differential effect that higher shares of remittances can have on monetary policy and describes the impact of remittances on a small open economy under partial sterilization. It demonstrates how a typical monetary shock will lead to a more pronounced liquidity effect when remittances become a higher proportion of GDP. It also shows that a positive remittance shock improves consumption and lowers interest rates, but as it also reduces work effort it momentarily lowers output. Such dynamics are exacerbated as the degree of partial sterilization is accentuated.     

The Old Commonwealth and Britain's First Application to Join the EEC, 1961–3

New Zealand, Canada, and Australia reacted in different ways to Britain's decision in 1961 to seek membership of the EEC. We show that the umbrage taken by the members of the old Commonwealth was in inverse proportion to the economic interests at stake. Canada, whose trade with Britain was relatively small, adopted a position of violent opposition to British policy. New Zealand, which was still heavily dependent on the UK as a market for staple commodities, was careful to avoid acting in a manner likely to alienate the British government. Australia, which was in an intermediate position as regards the importance of its trade with Britain, mounted a sturdy defence of its commercial interests, but did not indulge in the histrionics of the Canadians. All three of the old dominions were disappointed with the arrangements for Commonwealth trade towards which the UK and the Six were moving when de Gaulle vetoed British membership in January 1963, but at least New Zealand had obtained some special concessions. Whilst it is unlikely that a less combative attitude by Canada and Australia would have resulted in a better outcome for these countries, a more belligerent approach on the part of New Zealand would have put its economic future in even greater jeopardy.     

Technical choice,innovation, and British steam engineering, 1800–501

The development of the high‐pressure expansive engine represented a watershed in the evolution of steam power technology, allowing the attainment of major fuel economies. In Britain, Cornish engineers took the lead in the exploration of this specific technological trajectory. Notwithstanding its superior fuel efficiency was immediately widely discussed, the high‐pressure expansive engine did not find widespread application in other steam‐using regions (in particular in Lancashire), where the Watt low‐pressure engine continued to be the favourite option. This article provides a reassessment of the factors accounting for the precocious adoption of the high‐pressure steam engine in Cornwall and for its delayed fortune in the rest of Britain.     

Inequality in turbulent times: income distribution in Germany and Britain, 1900–50

Using social tables, this article provides new data on inequality in Germany and Britain on an annual basis for the first half of the twentieth century. Inequality trends in these two countries tended to follow opposite patterns. The decline in inequality in Germany was interrupted during the First World War and the Nazi period, while in Britain the reversal took place between the end of the First World War and the Great Depression. Results show that the drop in inequality during the twentieth century in Europe did not follow secular trends, thus supporting the notion of inequality cycles.     

British Capital and Merchandise Exports, 1870–1913: The Bilateral Case of New Zealand

The Ford thesis argued that there was a short‐term causal relationship between British overseas investment and British merchandise exports in the late nineteenth century. However, economic historians since Ford have found little empirical evidence in support of this argument. Using data on bilateral British lending, this article finds that such a relationship did exist, with British ex ante lending preceding merchandise exports by 2 years. A case study of New Zealand, which had an extraordinarily high share of Britain in its imports, reveals that the relationship was conditional upon the lending being allocated to social overhead capital.     

The rise and decline of European parliaments, 1188–17891

This article quantifies the activities of medieval and early modern parliaments. It traces the long‐term evolution of this European institution, and offers a first pass at analysing its impact on long‐term economic development. Starting in Spain in the twelfth century, parliaments gradually spread over the Latin west between 1200 and 1500. In the early modern period, parliaments declined in influence in southern and central Europe and further gained in importance in the Netherlands and Britain, resulting in an institutional ‘Little Divergence’ between 1500 and 1800. We discuss the background of this phenomenon in detail. Moreover, by analysing the effects of parliamentary activity on city growth we find that these differences in institutional development help to explain the economic divergence between north‐western and southern and central Europe.     

UK shocks and Irish business cycles, 1922–79

This article examines the transmission of UK and global shocks to the Irish economy over the period 1922–79, using annual data for consumer prices and real GDP in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. UK aggregate demand and supply shocks have large and significant effects on Irish CPI, but smaller effects on Irish real GDP. A historical decomposition indicates that UK aggregate supply and demand shocks played a more important role than domestic shocks in the evolution of Irish CPI. In contrast, the evolution of Irish real GDP is driven more by idiosyncratic domestic shocks than by UK shocks.     

The liquidity of the London capital markets, 1825–70†

This article examines the liquidity of the London capital markets in the decades following the liberalization of UK incorporation law. Using comprehensive stock and bond data, we calculate a measure of market liquidity for the period 1825–70. We find that stock market liquidity trended upwards but bond market liquidity did not increase over the sample period. Stock market liquidity during our sample period was partially influenced by the bond market, rather than fluctuations in economic output. In our analysis of the cross‐sectional determinants of individual stock liquidity, we find that firm size and the number of issued shares were important determinants of liquidity.  Finally, we find little evidence of an illiquidity premium, which is consistent with the view that investors did not price liquidity in this nascent market.     

The “North-South” controversy and Britain's regional problems

The extent of regional economic disparities in Britain has recently become the focus of considerable controversy. Attempts have been made to portray the existing situation in terms of a “North-South divide” or as “two nations”. Opponents of this point of view have argued that no such stark division of the country exists, and that prosperous areas can be found in parts of the North just as depressed areas can be found in parts of the South.

This paper considers the pattern of regional disparities which now prevails in Britain. Section I is a detailed presentation of the existing situation. Section II considers the question of how sharp a division there now is between different parts of Britain, followed, in Section III, by a discussion of the process of change which has brought about the regional disparities which we now observe. Implications for government policy are then considered.     

Relationship between foreign capital flows,domestic investment and savings in the SADC region

The importance of foreign capital in the domestic economy cannot be underestimated as it bridges the gap between domestic capital demand and supply. Given this background the paper studies the relationship between the different types of foreign capital flows in the Southern Africa Development Region (SADC) region – foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, cross border bank flows (CBF), overseas development assistance (ODA) – and domestic savings and investment, employing the panel cointegration test and the dynamic ordinary least squares method (DOLS). The empirical results reveal that there is a strong positive relationship between domestic investment and domestic savings, FDI and remittances. These findings indicate that FDI remittances help in overcoming the limits on the domestic capital formation in the SADC region through permitting a rate of investment which is in excess of that which can be generated by domestic savings. Important policy implications on attracting foreign capital flows are discussed in the paper.     

Do remittances moderate financial development–informality nexus in North Africa?

The prevalent informality and sheer size of international remittances characterize the North African countries. This study primarily aims at investigating how remittances moderate the effects of financial development on the informal economy in North African countries. Employing pool mean group (PMG)/panel ARDL approach and a balanced panel data set over the period 1980–2015, we find that remittances moderate the negative relationship between financial development and informal economy. This finding suggests that remittances bolster financial development, which, in turn, decreases the informal economy. Based on this result, we recommend that tailored policies and interventions are needed to promote financial development and international remittances in the North African region.     

Integration between the London and New York Stock Exchanges, 1825–1925

In this article the integration between the London and New York Stock Exchanges is analysed during the era when they were still developing as asset markets. The domestic securities on both exchanges showed little sustained integration, even when controlling for the different characteristics of stocks, which implies that the pricing of securities in the US and UK was still being driven by local factors. These results place a limit on the view that the pre‐First World War period was the first era of globalization in terms of capital markets. However, there was considerable integration between New York and those listings on London that operated internationally. This suggests that the listing of foreign securities may be one of the primary mechanisms driving asset market integration.     

‘The city has been wronged and abused!’: institutional corruption in the eighteenth century

Corruption by office holders in eighteenth‐century British institutions, from state to local level, played an instrumental role in the emergence of modern bureaucracy, and the development of accountable, professionalized systems of administration. Due to the similarities between the institutional culture of eighteenth‐century Britain and those within many contemporary developing societies, social scientists have also sought to draw lessons from Britain's historical experience of corruption. Yet little is known about the extent, impact, and causes of corruption by eighteenth‐century office holders. This article presents the first detailed research into the topic. It utilises the rich administrative and financial records associated with the institution charged with funding and undertaking the maintenance of London Bridge—the Bridge House—to conduct a systematic qualitative and quantitative study of corruption by office holders. The article identifies an ingrained culture of corruption amongst Bridge House officers, and provides quantitative evidence of the substantial impact corruption had on the organization's finances. However, contrary to existing studies on corruption, this article concludes that, although extensive and significant, corruption did not perform a functional role in the context of this institution. The article also provides a methodology and comparator for future studies into this topic.     

Standards,learning, and growth in Britain, 1901–2009

This article considers the model of voluntary, consensus based standardization as developed through the British Standards Institution (BSI) and its contribution to learning and productivity growth. It discusses the significant role played by professional engineers in the model's introduction, its extension at home, and its imitation overseas. It is argued that by 1931 the BSI catalogue of standards represented a considerable stock of codified knowledge whose growth reflected underlying aggregate technological opportunities, assisting in their transformation into technological advance. To help validate this claim, a measure of the size of the BSI catalogue of standards is incorporated into an econometric model of aggregate productivity growth in Britain. Findings show that the growth of the standards catalogue is associated with a substantial proportion of labour productivity growth over the period 1931–2009. Estimates relating to the short‐run dynamics involved are consistent with the idea that there are causal linkages running from standards to growth. When interpreting these findings, it is argued that the overall weight of historical evidence points to standardization—coordinated through the BSI—as providing an important path of learning for the British economy over the period considered.     

Remittances,social security,and the crowding-out effect: Evidence from Vietnam

In the absence of adequate social security systems, many people in developing countries, especially the poor and vulnerable, cope through migration-related remittances. However, when remittances, internal or international, provide social benefits similar to public transfers they may overlap: ‘crowding-out’ effects occur. Employing three long-sample Vietnam Household Living Standard surveys undertaken during the 2000s, this paper studies the crowding-out effects of remittances in Vietnam, a developing country that has experienced a soaring inflow of remittances since 2000. Significant crowding-out effects for both domestic and international remittances on income are found below the poverty line in Vietnam, consistent with an altruistic motive. Beyond this, transfer derivatives are positive and statistically significant in both areas, suggesting a switch of motives from altruism to exchange at the poverty line. The substituting relationship between public transfers and remittances observed for the rural poor reveals key challenges to delivering an equal and efficient social security system in the country.     

Patterns of infant mortality in rural England and Wales, 1850–1910†

The study of nineteenth‐century infant mortality in Britain has neglected the rural dimension to a surprising degree. This article maps the change in infant mortality rate (IMR) between the 1850s and the 1900s at registration district (RD) level. Latent trajectory analysis, a longitudinal model‐based clustering method, is used to identify the clusters into which rural RDs fell, based on their IMR trajectories. Relationships between IMR and population density, fertility, female tuberculosis mortality, female illiteracy, male agricultural wages, and distance from London are examined in a longitudinal study. The tuberculosis (maternal health), illiteracy (education), and distance variables had the most effect. IMR responded most strongly to improving health and education in the east, less in the central area, and least in the north and west. The eastern zone's higher‐than‐average mid‐century infant mortality therefore declined faster than the national average. A central and southern zone had slightly lower IMR in mid‐century but did not keep up with the rate of decline in the east. The peripheral north and west had the lowest mid‐century rates but their decline was overtaken by the other zones. The interpretation of these findings and their relevance to the wider study of infant mortality are discussed.     

Squeezing the bears: cornering risk and limits on arbitrage during the ‘British bicycle mania’, 1896–8

This article examines the extent to which Victorian investors were short‐sale constrained. While previous research suggests that there were relatively few limits on arbitrage, this article argues that short‐sales of stocks outside the Official List were indirectly constrained by the risk of being cornered. Evidence for this hypothesis comes from three corners in cycle company shares which occurred in 1896–7, two of which resulted in substantial losses for short‐sellers. Legal efforts to retrieve funds lost in a corner were unsuccessful, and the court proceedings reveal a widespread contempt for short‐sellers, or ‘bears’, among the general public. Consistent with the hypothesis that these episodes affected the market, this study's findings show that cycle companies for which cornering risk was greater experienced disproportionately lower returns during a subsequent crash in the market for cycle shares. This evidence suggests that, under certain circumstances, short‐selling shares in Britain prior to 1900 could have been much riskier than previously thought.     

International bimetallism and silver absorption in Singapore, 1840–73

This study reveals the mechanism underlying the silver trade in Singapore during the third quarter of the nineteenth century by analysing banking business and bullion arbitrage. After 1849, the California Gold Rush induced gold depreciation and silver appreciation in Singapore's bullion market, and arbitrage profits for silver imports from Britain emerged. At the same time, the expansion of banking business by eastern exchange banks enhanced the connectivity of Singapore's exchange market with London, and enabled bullion arbitrage between the two distant cities. As a result, there was an influx of silver from Britain. In addition, Dutch silver, which was exported to Java by the Netherlands after 1854, flowed into Singapore due to the unfavourable exchange policy of the Dutch government.     

On fertility,migration and remittances in LDCs

In this paper, we examine the effect of migratory opportunities for children on fertility when the decision by the child whether and how much to remit is endogenous to the analysis. We differentiate between two classes of motivations to remit and four changes that are likely to increase the return to migration. We demonstrate that the effect of each of these changes on remittances depends on the motive for remittances. Given that the demand for children as assets depends on the returns to them of which remittances constitute a part, we identify links between motivations to remit and the demand for children.