An Estimated Trade Restrictiveness Index of the Level of Protection in Australian Manufacturing

In this paper we provide a new 31‐year time series of the level of protection in the Australian manufacturing sector. The index used is an estimate of the partial equilibrium form of the Trade Restrictiveness Index recently developed by the World Bank. This is the theoretically correct welfare based average of levels of nominal protection. The paper outlines the index and its properties. Some comments are made on the insights gained from the new series and on the record of the Labor and coalition governments in making reforms to industry assistance.     

Trade Policy in the Presence of Economies of Scale and Product Variety*

It is well known that laissez faire may not be the ‘first-best’ policy in a closed economy where economies of scale are present. Corden has shown that this conclusion can carry over into an open economy, though under his assumption that imported goods are perfect substitutes for home-produced goods, interference with international trade could not raise real income. We have shown that where there are economies of scale, and imported goods are not identical to the home produced goods, interference with trade could raise real national income, though such a form of intervention would not normally be optimal. Further, it could even be desirable to support home production of more than one ‘variety’. Measurements of ‘costs of protection’ that aggregate several varieties into one may mislead not only regarding the size of the cost but even regarding its sign.     

The Mercantilist Index of Trade Policy*

We introduce an index of trade policy restrictiveness defined as the uniform tariff that maintains the same trade volume as a given tariff/quota structure. Our index overcomes the problems of the trade‐weighted average tariff: It avoids substitution bias, correctly accounts for general equilibrium transfers, and takes import volume instead of welfare as benchmark. Empirical applications to international cross section and time‐series comparisons of trade policy confirm our theoretical results: Trade‐weighted average tariffs generally underestimate the true height of tariffs as measured by the trade‐volume‐equivalent index; this in turn always underestimates the welfare‐equivalent index.     

To Trade Or Not To Trade: Economies With A Variable Number Of Tradeables*

We present a general equilibrium model that encompasses the endogenous selection and shadow‐pricing of a set of tradeable commodities, with home‐based and social production activities. In the model, a market system is a set of costly social institutions which embody the trade and production technologies available in the economy. Our equilibrium concept describes the pricing of market institutions, thus pricing the tradeability of a commodity. We obtain the existence and the decentralization of Pareto‐efficient allocations. We discuss an example regarding the transition of a guild‐based economy into a market‐based economy.     

Is International Trade More Beneficial to Lower Income Economies? An Empirical Inquiry

Does the effect of international trade on income growth depend on the economy’s level of development? More specifically, is trade more beneficial to lower income economies? Does trade contribute to a smaller international income inequality? The present paper seeks to answer these questions by employing the empirical model of Frankel and Romer (1999 ), which shows trade increases income growth in a cross section of 150 countries. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis that international trade benefits the lower income economies more than it benefits the higher income economies. This finding is robust in the presence of control variables including distance from the equator and institutional quality.     

Second-order Locally Consistent Equilibrium: An Extension*

This note shows the existence of a second-order locally consistent equilibrium in the game analysed in 1988 by Bonanno, under assumptions which are weaker and empirically more satisfactory than usual. An example of application to oligopoly theory is also provided.     

Partial‐ and General‐Equilibrium Measures of Trade Restrictiveness

New partial‐equilibrium forms of the Trade Restrictiveness Index and the Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index have recently been used by the World Bank and others. In this paper we examine the bias in the partial‐equilibrium forms due to the neglect of general‐equilibrium effects. We propose “semi‐general‐equilibrium” measures that capture those general‐equilibrium effects due to vertical input–output relations without the need for a computable general‐equilibrium model. These measures also incorporate nontariff measures. Australian data are used to compute the semi‐general‐equilibrium measures. These estimates indicate that the partial‐equilibrium forms generally underestimate the true value of the indices, and by a large margin in some cases.     

International Economies of Scale and the Gains from Trade

In this paper, we present a two-country trade model with external economies of scale that emerge on an international level but are partially localized in each country. First, we show that the larger country exports the good produced in an industry with external economies of scale in the trading equilibrium. Second, we investigate the welfare effects of trade for the following two cases: (I) the case where external economies are completely localized in autarky; (II) the case where external economies are internationally effective in autarky. In case (II), it is shown that trade can be welfare-decreasing for both countries.     

对外贸易与经济增长相关性探究

随着中国改革开放和市场化步伐的不断加大 ,经济呈现繁荣增长的势头 ,而与此同时对外贸易的发展也是日新月异。本文从国家层面深入到各个地区 ,从全面角度来探究外贸与经济增长之间的相关关系 ,并据此提出政策性建议。     

发达和发展中经济体对华贸易救济的比较研究

本文在对发达经济体和发展中经济体对华贸易救济的特征差异进行分析的基础上,运用贸易救济指控指数和贸易救济涉案金额指数两项指标,进一步分析了其对中国出口贸易影响的差异,得出的结论是:发达经济体和发展中经济体在立案数量、措施选取、涉案行业、涉案金额、案件执行率和诉诸WTO等方面呈现出明显的特征差异,相对其在中国出口贸易中的地位而言,发展中经济体的贸易救济对中国出口贸易的影响大于发达经济体。     

An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners

This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers (here, Iran and Russia) benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.     

External Economies in the International Trade Theory: A Survey

The paper surveys the international trade literature on intraindustrial and interindustrial production externalities. It places particular emphasis upon the literature on variable returns to scale (VRS) developed along the Kemp line that the externalities are output–generated, and the economies of scale are external (internal) to individual firms (industry). The discussion touches upon the literature examining the implications of VRS for fundamental trade theorems, trade policies, economic growth, and welfare. The paper extends the survey to writings on the Meade–type interindustrial production externalities.     

Trade Structure and Trade liberalization: The emerging pattern between the EU and Transition Economies

The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence for the assumption that trade liberalization unlocks the potential of the Transition Economies (TEs) to achieve technological upgrading, productivity progress and catching-up (in terms of income). The study examines the trade structure now emerging between the European Union (EU) and the TEs in the light of two sets of differently liberalized trade items identified by the European Agreements. The aim is to determine whether trade liberalization has helped to supersede the structures – reflected mainly in the low quality of products – inherited by the TEs from the command economy. The empirical results are interpreted in the light of the Flam-Helpman quality-cycle model. We find evidence of an ongoing division of labor between high quality products (EU) and low quality products (TEs) according to a cycle. The first stage comprises the already well established dominance of quality advantage products by EU countries producing and exporting high-quality products, which crowd out the TEs' production of similar products. The second stage is the exploitation of cost-advantages by TEs in less liberalized trade, and there they appear to achieve better results. All these results may be taken as support for an active government in TEs.     

Do Geographic Scale Economies Explain Disturbances to Heckscher–Ohlin Trade?

This paper examines whether "geographic scale economies" explain the trade that remains unexplained by the Heckscher–Ohlin model. The paper develops a theoretical specification that integrates geographic scale economies into the Heckscher–Ohlin model, and develops a statistical method for detecting geographic scale economies in the distributional features of a disturbance term. The units of analysis are US states. The findings reveal that empirical support for the Heckscher–Ohlin theory is improved by accounting for geographic scale economies within states; geographic scale economies do not generate differences in Rybczynski effects across states; and the scope of geographic scale economies is contained within states.     

Terms of Trade Indices in the Presence of Re-Export Trade*

This paper shows how the index of the commodity terms of trade as ordinarily constructed should be adjusted to take account of re-exports in the broad sense of the use of intermediate inputs in export activities which had been imported. The neglect of this adjustment produces indices which generally overstate the movement of the terms of trade. An empirical study of Singapore suggests that the bias may be substantial.     

抓住历史机遇发展民营经济

２０多年来，伴随着经济体制改革的不断深入，我国的经济结构发生了显著的变化。从GDP的构成角度看，１９８０年，我国国有经济占７８％，集体所有制经济占２０％，非公有制经济占２％；到２００１年，国有经济下降至４０％左右，集体所有制经济占３６％，而其他非公有制经济上升到２４％。新格局的形成既揭示了我国非公有制经济形式旺盛的生命力，也验证了我党多年来在完善所有制构成方面所做出的正确判断和抉择。在党的十六大会议上，江泽民同志针对现有的公有制和非公有制经济关系又做了更明确的论述：根据解放和发展生产力的要求，坚…