中日韩服务贸易结构比较研究

目前服务贸易在国际贸易中的地位越来越高,而服务贸易的结构直接影响到服务贸易的质量和可持续性,全球主要经济体在服务贸易发展过程中都或多或少地对本国的服务贸易结构有所调整,通过优化服务贸易结构来实现本国经济的可持续增长。在此,通过对中国、日本、韩国三个处于不同发展阶段国家的服务贸易结构横向、纵向的分析比较,研究三国服务贸易结构调整路径的异同。     

中韩经贸关系的发展现状及前景展望

自1992年中国与韩国建交以来,两国关系在政治、经济、文化等各个领域都取得了快速发展。其中,经贸关系是中韩关系持久发展的基石。文章通过对建交后中韩经贸关系发展的回顾,深入分析两国经贸交流中快速发展的原因及存在的问题,在此基础上展望中韩两国经贸关系的未来发展前景。     

Trade Liberalization,Economic Restructuring and Urban Poverty: The Case of China*

Increased trade openness and rapid market-oriented transformation have largely altered the patterns of wealth accumulation and wealth distribution in post-reform China. In the present paper, with the help of Chinese provincial level data over the period of 1986 to 2000, simultaneous equations estimation and generalized method of moment techniques are applied to investigate the relationship between trade and poverty in urban China. Empirical results suggest that China's trade liberalization helps to reduce urban poverty both directly and indirectly through its favorable impacts on economic growth.     

日韩贸易摩擦的原因、影响及趋势分析

日本对出口韩国的生产半导体零部件的3种核心原材料采取管制措施,其根本目的在于掌握半导体乃至高技术领域的主导权。出口管制实施后,部分日本企业试图通过拓展其他国家市场来弥补因对韩出口管制造成的损失,也有些企业计划在海外设厂以便避开政府管制向韩国供应原材料。出口管制还导致日本产品在韩遭到抵制、韩国赴日游客锐减等。韩国通过半导体核心部件国产化、进口来源地多元化等对策,在一定程度上减少了贸易制裁对半导体行业的负面影响,使日本被迫放宽出口管制。由于日韩处于半导体全球价值链分工不同环节中,存在紧密的"一荣俱荣,一损俱损"的依存关系,因此,日韩贸易摩擦的缓和存在内在必然性。另外,RCEP签署以及中日韩自贸区谈判等外部因素会进一步促进日韩贸易关系改善。     

基于贸易与投资的中、韩、朝地区经济合作研究

中国已成为朝鲜半岛最重要的经济合作国之一,在地区经济合作中有着良好的基础和条件。本 文分析了中韩朝三国的双边贸易与投资的基本情况及其特点,提出了进一步实现该地区紧密的 经济合作关系的可行性及基本构想。     

Dynamic Relationships between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from Korea

This paper examines the short‐run and long‐run dynamic relationships between exchange rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Korea. Monthly data retrieved from the Bank of Korea from January 1999 to March 2012 are examined. A cointegration test, a vector error correction model, the Wald test and impulse responses techniques are applied to analyze the data. The present study finds that, first, long‐run causation between exchange rates and FDI flows exists, which implies that a change in exchange rates negatively affects FDI flows in the long run. Second, short‐run causation between exchange rates and FDI flows exists, which confirms that there is reciprocal feedback between the two variables. Finally, the study finds evidence of a structural break from the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 shock to FDI flows in Korea. An external shock affects changes in the endogenous variables and, thus, causes instability in the cointegrating vector in the system.     

Foreign Investment,Divestment and Relocation by Japanese Electronics Firms in East Asia*

Although foreign divestment and international relocation by multinational firms carry important economic implications for the industrialization of East Asian countries, there has been little empirical research on these issues. In this paper we analyze the magnitude and pattern of foreign divestment and relocation by Japanese electronics firms in nine East Asian countries during 1995–2003. The average annual divestment rate of electronics manufacturing affiliates is 3 percent, but divestment patterns diverge strongly across countries. Divestments are much more frequent in higher labor cost countries and in approximately one‐third of cases are accompanied by relocations to lower wage countries, particularly to China. Evidence is found for rivalry between China and ASEAN countries in attracting foreign direct investment, but the growing attractiveness of China has not been accompanied by a reduction in employment in Japanese affiliates in ASEAN countries (with the exception of Singapore). Divestments and relocations are related to Japanese firms’ strategy to reconfigure their Asian production networks in response to changing competitiveness, regional integration, and changes in local investment environments.     

Impact of Foreign Bank Presence on Foreign Direct Investment in China

We analyze the impact of foreign bank presence on foreign direct investment (FDI) in China. The connection between the two could be particularly relevant for an emerging economy like China because the supply of financial services provided by banks may act as a constraining factor. Foreign bank presence may then enable and foster FDI and not simply result from it. Our estimates demonstrate that FDI across regions in China is increasing in the existing network of regional branches of foreign banks, which itself is driven (and, therefore, instrumented) by the timing of the regional phasing out of the local limits for foreign banks on local currency business. The effect of foreign bank presence on FDI is particularly strong for some specific sectors (farming, manufacturing, construction, transportation, wholesale/retail trade and real estate) if those sectors are strongly represented in the source economies.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

Trade Destruction and Trade Diversion: Evidence from China

Over the past three decades, we have seen a dramatic increase in the incidence of temporary trade barriers such as antidumping duties and countervailing duties. China has been at the receiving end of a large number of such measures. In this paper, we study how China's exports to its major trade partners have been affected when its major trade partners have used these measures either against China or against other countries. We find that Chinese exports to the country that imposed an antidumping duty decreased by approximately 35 percent. At the same time, an antidumping duty used by the importing country that was directed towards other countries but not against China led to an approximate 30‐percent increase in China's exports to the policy‐imposing country. These results remain robust across various specifications. Our findings have important policy implications. In particular, the magnitude of these effects highlights why it is important to curb the recent widespread use of these barriers.     

韩国重点科学技术项目及投资预算研究

通过对韩国重大科学技术项目管理体系和评估方法的研究,分析了韩国十大科学技术领域的政策现状和投资预算情况,对我国确定重点科技领域给予一些启示,并在科技政策的制定以及技术研究方面起到一定的借鉴作用。     

International Trade and R&D Investment: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

A current concern for China's long‐term growth prospect is whether China can become an innovative economy and achieve industrial upgrading to compensate for the gradually declining competitiveness resulting from low‐cost labor. The present study examines this issue by exploring how trade participation impacts on the R&D investment of manufacturing firms through various channels. Merging China's Annual Manufacturing Survey Dataset and the Chinese Customs Dataset allows us to study such a relationship at the individual firm level. The empirical results suggest that channels such as geographical diversification of export markets, share of imports from high‐income countries, average unit value of imports, number of intermediate goods and capital goods imports, and the trade regime are significant factors that influence firm‐level R&D investment. The study discusses the policy implications of the empirical findings in relation to industrial and trade policies that may be potentially beneficial for China's transition towards an innovative economy.     

中日韩服务贸易竞争力分析及对我国的启示

本文分析了中国、日本和韩国的服务贸易的发展状况,对三国的整体服务贸易及行业服务贸易国际竞争力进行了比较研究。结果表明,中日韩三国服务贸易整体均不具备比较优势,各行业服务贸易竞争力有所差异。最后就我国如何由服务贸易大国转变为服务贸易强国提出了提升我国服务贸易竞争力的相应策略。     

Econometric Analysis of the India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement*

This paper investigates whether the India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISLFTA) has had trade creation or trade diversion effects on the rest of the world. Using data on tariffs at the six‐digit level of the Harmonized System classification for the period 1996 to 2006, the methodology of the present paper follows a study on the North American Free Trade Agreement by Romalis (2005 ) We use the commodity and time variation in the tariff preferences allowed under ISLFTA to identify its effect on sourcing of different products from the ‘control country’ to the ISLFTA region. Using a fixed effects model, we find that the ISLFTA has had small trade creation effects in the control countries.     

The Impact of Multinational Presence on Domestic Investment: Firm‐Level Evidence from South Korea

In order to analyze the effects of foreign multinationals' presence on domestic firms' investment, we use a detailed firm level data set from South Korea for the 2006–2014 period. We combine it with the input‐output tables provided by the Bank of Korea to construct industry level measures of multinational presence in sectors that are horizontally and vertically linked, and estimate dynamic investment equations that are augmented with these foreign presence measures. We find a positive and significant effect of foreign presence in both horizontally and vertically linked industries on domestic firm's investment rate, with larger effects arising from multinational presence in the supplying sectors. Quantitatively, a 2 percentage point increase in the presence of multinational suppliers increases the domestic firm's investment rate by 3.24 percentage points. We also find that this effect is larger for small and medium firms, private firms, nonexporters, firms that are not part of a chaebol, and for firms in external finance dependent industries. A similar 2 percentage point increase in the foreign presence in downstream sectors increases the investment rate of domestic suppliers by 0.55 percentage points. This effect is larger if the domestic firm is part of a chaebol, or is in a less external finance dependent industry. Investment increase by 0.53 percentage points following a 2 percentage point increase in horizontal linkages.     

中国和印度尼西亚的贸易与环境问题分析

随着双边贸易规模的不断扩大,中国和印尼不可避免地承受着与之紧密相连的环境压力。以投资为主要纽带的环境保护合作,不仅可以带动双方环保产业的发展,促进清洁能源的开发与利用,还能够有效减缓与绿色壁垒有关的贸易摩擦,推动双方贸易的深化与拓展。     

Input Trade Liberalization and the Export Duration of Products: Evidence from China

This paper introduces a quasi‐natural experimental framework into trade policy evaluation and reassesses China's trade liberalization through the survival of export products. We use propensity score matching and China's dual trade system to design a quasi‐natural experiment based on Chinese industrial enterprises, customs import and export, and tariff data over the period of 2000–2006; we then use survival analysis to study the impacts of China's trade liberalization on the export duration of manufacturing firms’ products. We find that the substantial reduction in import tariffs after China's accession to the World Trade Organization enhances the export duration of firm products, indicating that trade liberalization ameliorates the survival of export products. The promotion effects of tariff reduction on export duration are obviously stronger for core products than for noncore products.     

Revisiting South Korea's Import Demand Behavior: A Cointegration Analysis*

Using cointegration techniques, the present study re‐examines the long‐run relationships of South Korea's aggregate import demand behavior. The present study considers four domestic activity variables; namely, gross domestic product, gross domestic product minus exports, national cash flow and final expenditure components for aggregate import demand in South Korea. The sample period covers quarterly data from 1970 to 2002. The present study provides empirical evidence of a cointegrating relation in the South Korea's import demand in which it is significant to South Korea's trade policy implication, particularly to improve external balances.