Modelling hydroclimatic uncertainty and short‐run irrigator decision making: the Goulburn system*

Australia has an incredibly variable and unpredictable hydroclimate, and while irrigation is designed to reduce risk, significant uncertainty remains in both seasonal water availability (‘allocations’) and irrigation crop water requirements. This paper explores the nature and impacts of seasonal hydroclimatic uncertainty on irrigator decision making and temporary water markets in the Goulburn system in northern Victoria. Irrigation and water trading plans are modelled for the three seasons of the irrigation year (spring, summer and autumn) via discrete stochastic programming, and contrasted against a perfect information base case. In water‐scarce environments, hydroclimatic uncertainty is found to be costly, in terms of both the efficiency of irrigation decisions and the allocation of water via the water market.     

The potential impact of markets for irrigation water in Italy and Spain: a comparison of two study areas*

The viability of irrigated systems in Southern Europe is closely linked to efficient institutional settings and water‐allocation mechanisms. A significant, although not widely used, mechanism for water allocation is an intra‐sectorial water market. The objective of this paper is to evaluate to what extent water markets may contribute to the improvement of the efficiency of water allocation and to the profitability of irrigated agriculture. The related issues of water allocation among farm types and farm specialisation are also addressed. The analysis is based on a basin‐level linear programming model, comparing the situation with and without a market. It includes both fixed and variable transaction costs and estimates their combined effects on market performances. The model is applied in two areas in Southern Italy and Spain, and simulates the behaviour of different farm types, derived from cluster analysis on a sample of farms in each area. The paper confirms that water markets could potentially improve the economic efficiency of water use, in terms of higher profit per hectare, given limited water availability. The potential improvements are associated with a more intense specialisation of farms and are strongly differentiated among farmers, particularly where significant restrictions to water availability occur. This corroborates the expectations of institutional difficulties in implementing water markets. However, the exchanges, and consequently the potential effects of water markets, are heavily affected by the actual level of water availability, as well as the size and the structure (fixed vs. proportional) of transaction costs. The paper calls for a more in‐depth analysis of the connections between market performances and institutional settings, as related to the issue of water‐agriculture policy design and coordination.     

Property rights reform to support China’s rural ‐ urban integration: household‐level evidence from the Chengdu experiment

In 2008, as part of a national experiment, Chengdu prefecture implemented ambitious property rights reforms including complete registration of all land together with measures to ease transferability and eliminate migration restrictions. Results from a difference‐in‐difference analysis of the National Statistics Bureau's regular household survey suggest that the reforms increased consumption and income, in particular for less wealthy and less educated households, with estimated benefits well above the cost of implementation. Local labour supply increased with the young shifting towards agriculture and the old towards off‐farm employment. The reforms also contributed to higher agricultural yields and profits through three channels, namely: (i) greater rental market activity that transferred land to more productive producers; (ii) substitution of purchased inputs for labour; and (iii) a shift out of grains towards vegetables, corn, and oilseeds all of which offer higher levels of profitability. All of these findings are consistent with the notion that, without reforms, imperfections in factor markets undermined investment and functioning of land and labour markets, preventing high‐value peri‐urban land from being used most effectively and reducing job creation.     

The impact of water access on short‐term migration in rural India

Migration is an important risk‐reduction strategy for households in developing countries. In this paper, we examine the impact of rainfall variability and irrigation availability on short‐term migration decisions in India. Our results show that both rainfall shocks and the availability of irrigation impact the decisions of households to dispatch migrants. For irrigation, we find that migration responds to costs and that deep fossil‐water wells, which provide a constant source of water, eliminate any benefit of short‐term migration. This suggests that regions with access to more secure and stable sources of water are less likely to rely on migration as an income‐smoothing mechanism, at least in the short run. Whether this holds in the long run will depend on the continued stability and availability of irrigation water.     

Spot water markets and risk in water supply

Water availability patterns in semiarid regions are typically extremely variable. Even in basins with a highly developed infrastructure, users are subject to unreliable water supplies, incurring substantial economic losses during periods of scarcity. More flexible instruments, such as voluntary exchanges of water among users, can help users to reduce risk exposure. This article looks at the effects of spot water markets on the economic risk caused by water availability variations. Our theoretical and empirical risk analyses are based on the random profits of water users. Profit probability density functions are formally and graphically characterized for both water sellers and buyers under several possible market outcomes. We conclude from this analysis that, where water supply is stochastic, water markets unambiguously reduce both parties' risk exposure. The empirical study is conducted on an irrigation district in the Guadalquivir Valley (Southern Spain), where there is a high probability of periods of extreme water scarcity. Water demand functions for the district representative irrigators and a spatial equilibrium model are used to simulate market exchanges and equilibrium. This programming model is combined with statistical simulation techniques. We show that the profit probability distribution of a representative irrigator is modified if water exchanges are authorized, leading to risk reductions. Results also indicate that if the market were extended to several districts and users that are subject to varying hydrological risk exposure, extremely low‐profit events would be less likely to occur. In sum, we show that exchanging water in annual spot markets can reduce farmers' economic vulnerability caused by water supply variability across irrigation seasons. These results support the water policy reform carried out in Spain in 1999 to allow for voluntary water exchanges among right holders.     

Food market liberalization: History and prospects

Abstract

Government intervention has been a feature of food markets in both industrialized and agrarian economies. However, the last 10 years have seen reforms aimed at reducing intervention; these have been a characteristic of ‘structural adjustment’. The process of reform has involved the replacement of administered by market‐determined prices and the abolition of trading parastatals or the removal of their monopoly. Despite an almost complete consensus that reforms are necessary and the absence of coherent local opposition, the pace and extent of reforms have varied. Moreover, views about liberalization tend to be polarized. Proponents argue that continued intervention is inefficient, unaffordable and distorting; antagonists suggest that unmodified markets lead to unacceptable inequalities, and expose producers and consumers to unacceptable risks. Moreover, weak fragmented markets do not constitute a sufficient base for sustained growth. This paper reviews the experience. It concludes that simple solutions of substituting public with private trading are not necessarily possible nor desirable, and argues that the nature of the debate may be misleading. The way forward may not lie in a choice between private market supremacy and conventional government intervention.     

Chinese Peasant Choices: Migration,Rural Industry or Farming

A nationally representative rural labour force survey of China is analysed to explore the allocation of labour among farming, local non-farming and temporary migration activities. Various tests of labour market segmentation are conducted. The estimated returns to labour off the farm greatly exceed those on the farm. The personal and household determinants of activities, and of days worked in them, are examined for demand or supply constraints on employment; some results are consistent with the former. The relationship between days worked off and on the farm suggests that the opportunity cost to households of non-farm work is very low. The evidence is consistent with there being rationing of non-farm employment. However, tastes, imperfect information, imperfect capital markets, risk-aversion and transaction costs are also relevant. The overcoming of the obstacles to diversification away from farming is important for rural development in China.     

Trends versus cycles in global wine export shares

The global wine market has witnessed major changes in recent years. Some of these changes are structural in nature or trend-following, whereas others are cyclical. Recently, new market entrants have increased their exports not only to traditional European markets but to other importing regions as well, whereas Old World producers have experienced declining market shares. However, the evidence examined here suggests that market share data also contain strong cyclical components. Mixed results also occur when the wine export data are disaggregated into products. This paper employs econometric methods to analyse the recent major shifts in world wine market shares and explains whether these are more of a secular trend-setting nature or of a temporary cyclical nature.     

Brewing a Bitter Cup? Deregulation,Quality and the Re‐organization of Coffee Marketing in East Africa

To what extent is global economic change mediated by national‐level policies? Are global corporations adopting the same strategies in different countries or do they address varying local circumstances in different ways? Do governments in developing countries have any meaningful regulatory powers left? This paper seeks to address some of these issues by examining the dynamics of coffee‐market reforms in three East African countries against the background of recent restructuring of the global coffee‐marketing chain. The paper focuses on two relatively neglected areas of inquiry: (1)changes in the identity, market share and organization of the actors involved in commodity markets and their contractual/power relationships in the marketing chain; and (2)changes in the assessment, monitoring and valuation of quality parameters in commodity trade. The author highlights the consequences of different trajectories of domestic market reforms and considers whether the preservation of quality and reputation is possible in deregulated markets.     

Leveling the field for biofuels: comparing the economic and environmental impacts of biofuel and other export crops in Malawi

Biofuels often raise the specter of food insecurity, water resource depletion, and greenhouse gas emissions from land clearing. These concerns underpin the “sustainability criteria” governing access to European biofuel markets. However, it is unclear if producing biofuels in low‐income countries does exacerbate poverty and food insecurity, and moreover, whether the sustainability criteria should apply to all agricultural exports entering European markets. We develop an integrated modeling framework to simultaneously assess the economic and environmental impacts of producing biofuels in Malawi. We incorporate the effects of land use change on crop water use, and the opportunity costs of using scarce resources for biofuels instead of other crops. We find that biofuel production reduces poverty and food insecurity by raising household incomes. Irrigated outgrower schemes, rather than estate farms, lead to better economic outcomes, fewer emissions, and similar water requirements. Nevertheless, to gain access to European markets, Malawi would need to reduce emissions from ethanol plants. We find that biofuels’ economic and emissions outcomes are generally preferable to tobacco or soybeans. We conclude that the sustainability criteria encourage more sustainable biofuel production in countries like Malawi, but are perhaps overly biased against biofuels since other export crops raise similar concerns about food security and environmental impacts.     

Policy reform and farmers' wheat allocation in rural China: a case study*

Market‐oriented policy reforms often have important effects on farm‐level grain production and utilisation decisions in developing countries. China's grain farmers are of particular interest because of China's importance in world grain markets and because of China's recent major agricultural policy advances and retrenchments. An empirical evaluation of market liberalisation among farmers located in two provinces in China on farm‐level wheat consumption, market sales and on‐farm storage during 1994 is presented. The results indicate that policymakers should account for such changes in farm household behaviour in designing and assessing the consequence of market liberalisation programs for agricultural sectors in developing countries.     

Deregulation reforms,resource reallocation and aggregate productivity growth in the Australian dairy industry

Deregulation reforms in the Australian dairy industry had long‐lasting repercussions for Australian agriculture and the wider Australian economy. Using farm‐level data from 1979 to 2013, we investigate the effect of these reforms on productivity in the Australian dairy industry which arose from correcting resource misallocation between farms and across segregated state milk markets. Our results demonstrate that after the dairy reforms in 2000, relative market share shifted from less productive farms to more productive ones, and between farms using different production systems – generating additional productivity gains for the farm sector, but imposing some costs on downstream manufacturers by strengthening the seasonality of milk supply. Lessons from the Australian experience provide timely guidance for those countries exploring deregulation now or in the future to improve the industry‐level agricultural productivity growth through facilitating resource reallocation from less efficient to more efficient farms.     

中国碳交易价格与电力价格相关性研究

以广东的碳交易市场和电力市场为主要研究对象,考虑到电力市场是产生碳排的因素市场之一,而碳排价格也会对电力成本产生影响,因此利用多种动态模型得出碳交易市场与电力市场两者之间确实有交错影响关系。最后还从发展角度对改善碳排、实现技术改革、发展地方经济提出了建议。     

Determinants of farmers' indigenous soil and water conservation investments in semi-arid India

This paper investigates the determinants of farmers' indigenous soil and water conservation investments in the semi-arid tropics of India. A simple theoretical model is used to develop hypotheses about the determinants of investment under alternative factor market conditions, and these are tested using data on conservation investment from three villages. We find that conservation investment is significantly lower on leased land in two of the study villages and lower on plots that are subject to sales restrictions in one village, suggesting the potential for land market reforms to increase conservation investment. In one village, households with more adult males, more farm servants, and less land invest more in conservation, as predicted by Ihe model of imperfect labor markets; and households with more debt and off - farm income invest more, consistent with the model of imperfect credit markets. Evidence that conservation investment is affected by factor market imperfections is weaker in the other villages, where investments are much larger, suggesting transaction costs as the source of the differences between villages. Other factors that have a significant effect on investment include the farmer's education and caste, characteristics of the plot (size, slope, irrigation status, and quality ranking) and the presence of existing land investments. The results suggest the importance of accounting for differences across communities and households in factor market and agroelimatic conditions in designing programs to promote investments in soil and water conservation.     

Willingness to contract versus opportunity to contract: a case study in Kenya's French bean export market

We characterize systematic differences in willingness and opportunity to contract for farmers in and out of the French bean supply market in Kenya. We find that the factors associated with being a low cost producer do not always align with the factors correlated with opportunity to contract. We also find that farmers in and out of the market differ on average in the premiums they place on buyer reliability, which suggests that imperfect contract enforcement could impact participation in French bean contracting.     

Price predictors in an extended hedonic regression framework: An application to wholesale cattle markets in Ethiopia

Livestock markets influence income generation for producers, but also accessibility and affordability of highly nutritious animal-sourced foods for consumers. Despite their importance, the functioning of livestock markets in lower-income countries is poorly understood and rarely studied compared to more developed countries. This study analyzes wholesale cattle markets in Ethiopia using a uniquely rich large-scale dataset covering both prices and cattle characteristics in 39 markets (in both highland and lowland areas) over a 10-year period, and hedonic regression models structured to understand both cattle price formation and seasonal and secular price dynamics. We show that cattle prices are influenced by a wide range of factors, including proxies for meat quality, religious fasting practices, climate-based seasonality but also climate shocks and availability of grazing land, competition from animal traction services, and rising consumer incomes. However, the implied effects of these factors are often significantly different in highland mixed crop-livestock areas compared to agro-pastoralist lowland areas, emphasizing the dualistic nature of cattle markets in Ethiopia. The analyses help inform the systemic challenges that Ethiopia will need to overcome to meet rising demand for beef products in the face of sustained income and population growth, as well as the adverse effects of climate change.     

Constraints to the sustainability of a ‘systematised’ approach to livestock marketing amongst smallholder cattle producers in South Africa

Commercialization of smallholder agriculture in South Africa is underpinned by reforms to improve livestock off-take in communal areas and engage smallholder farmers with formal markets. To achieve this, Custom Feeding Programmes (CFPs) were established to improve the condition of communal cattle prior to their sale into formal markets and to ‘systematise’ the informal marketing of cattle in communal areas by enabling participants to achieve higher informal market prices. We evaluate the sustainability of eight CFPs located in Eastern Cape Province in terms of their ability to add value to smallholder cattle production and encourage market participation. Communities with CFPs achieved a 16.6% mean cattle off-take rate, substantially higher than in most communal systems. Furthermore, cattle sold through CFPs attained a 17% higher mean selling price than those sold through other marketing channels. However, these benefits were mainly realized by better-off farmers with larger cattle herds and greater ability to transport animals to and from CFPs. More marginalized farmers, particularly women, had low participation. CFPs also face challenges to their sustainability, including inconsistent feed and water supplies, poor infrastructure and high staff turnover. Key to enhancing participation in CFPs, will be improving the way they are supported and embedded within communities.     

Bubbles,Froth and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets

The Masters Hypothesis suggests that long‐only index funds were the main cause of a massive increase in commodity prices in 2007–2008 and 2011–2012. Central to the Masters Hypothesis are three basic tenets: (i) long‐only commodity index funds were directly responsible for driving futures prices higher; (ii) the deviations from fundamental value were economically very large; (iii) the impact was pervasive across commodity futures markets. There has been a great deal of empirical research on the Masters Hypothesis and commodity market bubbles. However, surprisingly few studies have found evidence that directly support the main tenets of the Masters Hypothesis. Some have attributed the lack of supporting evidence to the low‐power of time‐series tests, market efficiency issues and a lack of conditioning variables within models. In this paper, we address each of these issues using updated data and new empirical approaches. Still, price behaviour consistent with the Masters Hypothesis is surprisingly difficult to find in the data. This is an important finding given the on‐going policy debate and regulations proposed or being implemented to limit speculative positions in these markets.     

Forty years of irrigation development and reform in China

This study reviews 40 years of irrigation development in China including the transformation of the institutional and incentive structures in irrigation management. After rural reforms in the 1970s, irrigation investments slowed until the late 1990s. In North China, farmers became major investors in groundwater irrigation, leading to property rights’ transfer of tube wells from collective to private ownership. Despite positive effects in cropping patterns, farmer income and development of groundwater markets, privatisation has accelerated groundwater table deterioration. Since the middle of 1990s, Water User Associations have replaced village collective management of surface irrigation. This approach was adopted by most provinces by early 2001 with mixed results; only institutions with water‐saving incentives realised efficient irrigation. The Government is reforming water price policies to provide water‐saving incentives to farmers while not hurting their income. While China has focused on water rights and markets, and despite regulations and pilot projects, full implementation of water rights has been slow. Research reveals greater policy scope for expanding irrigation technologies that generate real water saving to rural areas. Given pressure associated with water scarcity and concern for food security, further effective reforms in irrigation and policy incentives are expected. The Government has also initiated some pilot projects to resolve increasing water scarcity problems through adjusting agricultural production activities.     

Problems in planning tropical tree crop projects and possible solutions

Abstract

This paper considers whether top‐grade diary beef produced in Japan and high‐quality beef imports from the USA are components of the same product market. In addressing this issue an approach is used for defining the nature and extent of a product market relying on the concept of instantaneous causality. The results, for selected cuts of beef, suggest that the markets are in fact separate.